Comet ISON May Be Disintegrating

‘Comet Of The Century’ Could Prove To Be A Dud

Comet ISON may wind up disappointing skywatchers hoping for the supposed “comet of the century.” Comet C/2012 S1 most recently passed Mars, and new data suggests it could be disintegrating.

www.ibtimes.com...

Dazzling Comet Ison May be Dying

There you go again: much talk, NO SHOW

HOWEVER...

The predictions concerning the uncertain future of Comet ISON are being if not definitively confirmed at least supported by the most recent optical observations, FACom said in a statement.

Despite the generalised scepticism and claims about the fact that the rumours of comet ISON “fizzling” were greatly exaggerated, the comet is still showing an unexpected behaviour that cometary specialists are fighting to explain.

Ah, wait, maybe this means Earth might be hit by one of the fragments now !!!!!! ....DOOOOM`s back

AQ6666
‘Comet Of The Century’ Could Prove To Be A Dud

Dud? Maybe, maybe not.
The author of that article started a message thread on the comets yahoo group and it has to be said that other amateur astronomers are less than convinced with his conclusions.

Ignacio also has a web page where you can see the light curve data, and see for yourself what he was basing his idea on.

reply to post by AQ6666


also...don't be a party pooper.

There are thousands back here on earth that await the first contact and are thirsty for alien knowledge.


So, it probably isn't a space ship ????!?!

Who would have thunk it....

reply to post by alfa1


Interesting discussion going on at the Yahoo Group you mention

If the comet breaks up it there is a slight chance it will shower the earth with meteorites from the astrological sites I read articles from. The majority of the debris will follow the same path and timing so we will not see any large meteors from this most likely. It is totally dependent on when it breaks up also. The risk is greater of it effecting earth if it breaks up than if it doesn't. There is not any good evidence to know what is going to happen. It may just go into the sun. From the articles I have read over the last three weeks, it appears that they are not sure what is going to happen, it is totally dependent on when it breaks up.

Even NASA has an article about this on the net, but you have to go through a different site to find it because the NASA site is conveniently is down. The first I saw of this was from the Australian astronomy site.

We may get a good light show out of this folks, instead of the earth getting peppered with comet dust that will not give us a show. It may be a very interesting time. Why fear something we can do nothing about. Enjoy the show if this happens, we may not have such a nice show for hundreds of years. This firework display is nothing to fear, unless a chunk lands on your home. The ground here will be covered with snow in January so I doubt if there will be forest fires. I just hope the cyanogens in the comet don't overload the atmosphere. I suppose I will stock up on grapefruit juice and stock a bunch of onions just in case, the thio sulfate helps the body deal with cyanogens.

We will know what is happening by late november as it goes around the sun. The show will be in January sometimes, whether it breaks up or not. If it doesn't break up, I suppose the comet dust will make the snow all dusty I hate dirty snow, I like when it is white.

So if it breaks up don't panic, it is hard to enjoy the fireworks when you are upset. Chances are it will just be a good show.

rickymouse
If the comet breaks up it there is a slight chance it will shower the earth with meteorites
It may just go into the sun.

No.
As mentioned repeatedly in probably all comet ISON threads, if the comet breaks up, the laws of orbital physics do not change, and the bits will continue in the same orbital path as the comet. Its not just the laws of physics, but also all the other precedents of comets that have observed broken up in the past.
Bits do not suddenly go wildly spinning off in different directions and crash into the earth or the sun. Seriously, thats just b**l***p.

It's just going into stealth mode. The aliens aboard this ship still think we are monkey like and don't realize we've been watching the "comet" for quite some time. Nice try you little green men.

reply to post by alfa1


According to the NASA site and the Australian site, the major part will continue on it's orbital path. The speed of some of the smaller debris may be effected though. Both sites said that there is not enough knowledge of this to compare things to. There can also be random collisions of particles that can cause them to alter their path slightly but the distance from the sun to the earth is not great enough for larger sections to scatter far from the orbit. I got this from another site about what was observed about the last comet breaking apart. This means that increases in small objects is possible, up to the size that will leave small meteors in the field. We go through these showers every year from old comets. It would basicly make a new trail that we go through every year on our trek around the sun. Larger pieces will continue on the path and will exit the solar system.

So it is not B***/ ***p. Read the latest articles on this knowledge from NASA and other organizations sites before commenting. New info is coming out all the time.

Like I stated in my article, it is nothing to worry about, instead of comet dust that slowly falls to earth we may possibly get a light show, and possibly new showers that happen once a year. I am speculating on the once a year one because we go through debris fields from other comets occasionally. These comets did not go exactly through earths path either, this one is above the earths path but if it breaks up it will extend the penny size meteors out farther so I am guessing it will be an annual January event in the future..

But what is that light beam in front of the comet?

0bserver1

But what is that light beam in front of the comet?

edit on 0b49America/ChicagoMon, 07 Oct 2013 11:21:49 -0500vAmerica/ChicagoMon, 07 Oct 2013 11:21:49 -05001 by 0bserver1 because: (no reason given)

Phobos and Deimos Shot.

reply to post by 0bserver1

But what is that light beam in front of the comet?

That is what is referred to as the antitail. It's an illusion of perspective.
en.wikipedia.org...

And that image is not of C/2012 S1 (ISON), its Comet 65/P Gunn

alfa1

rickymouse
If the comet breaks up it there is a slight chance it will shower the earth with meteorites
It may just go into the sun.

No.
As mentioned repeatedly in probably all comet ISON threads, if the comet breaks up, the laws of orbital physics do not change, and the bits will continue in the same orbital path as the comet. Its not just the laws of physics, but also all the other precedents of comets that have observed broken up in the past.
Bits do not suddenly go wildly spinning off in different directions and crash into the earth or the sun. Seriously, thats just b**l***p.

I'm not a comet expert nor an expert in orbital physics, but isn't one of the main reasons that the comet may be breaking up is due to it getting closer to the sun and it becoming unstable. Meaning that as the ice rapidly expands due to heating up it could sort of "pop" with some energy which could cause chunks to fly off at different angles of the current path?

reply to post by AlienScience

It's more like it crumbles than explodes. That's what prior experience shows.
While there may be small "jets" of gas ejected any thrust is very slight and the chunks have a very great deal of momentum. It takes a lot of energy to divert something moving 100,000 mph.

Just to throw it in there...


Maybe the Mothership is splitting into smaller attack crafts...

No I don't believe it either but had to say it anyway

Before perihelion, the nucleus of Comet Lovejoy had been estimated to be between 100 and 200 metres (330 and 660 ft) in diameter. Since the comet survived perihelion, it is thought that the nucleus must have been larger, perhaps up to 500 metres (1,600 ft).[20] During the coronal passage, it is believed that a significant fraction of the comet's mass was burned off.[19]

lovejoy

Observations by SWIFT suggest that C/2012 S1's nucleus is around 5 kilometers (3.1 mi) in diameter.[8]

ison

I believe it should survive

reply to post by alfa1


Is there not a chance that trailing pieces as a result of a break up will follow on the same path but at a slower rate? In which case does the predicted orbit intersect near enough to earth for there to be a possibility of meteors hitting our atmosphere?

I'm just curious, I have no knowledge or expertise in astronomical physics.

reply to post by Phage


Thanks phage, clear answer..

reply to post by Arken


What do you mean by Phobos and Deimos shot? Did curiosity took this shot and are Phobos and Deimos in this picture?

reply to post by redshoes

Is there not a chance that trailing pieces as a result of a break up will follow on the same path but at a slower rate?

No.
Objects in orbit are in freefall. They are "falling" around the Sun. As Galileo (and later Newton) demonstrated, the mass of an object does not affect the way it falls.

rickymouse
We go through these showers every year from old comets. It would basicly make a new trail that we go through every year on our trek around the sun. Larger pieces will continue on the path and will exit the solar system.

Meteor shows come from comets that are in continual orbit around the sun. Periodic comets, such as 109P/Swift-Tuttle, 1P/Halley, 21P/Giacobini-Zinner, 55P/Tempel-Tuttle. The continual, periodic nature of the orbit gives time for debris to be located at places where the comet is not, and also time for the debris to drift out of the exact same orbital path as the comet.

ISON, on the other hand, is coming through once, and once only. If it didnt place debris into Earth's path on this time around, it never will.