Meteor and fireball watch - 2013

There is no doubt that the incidence of fireballs in the sky has been increasing all over the world. That leads me to believe that there is a great danger of an actual strike of rather large magnitude, possibly in a populated area, sometime in the coming year.

So lets keep a watch on the fireballs and track their location and time to see if we can make sense of this increase.

Here are some recent links...

Argentina Meteor: Fireball Explodes, Turns Night Sky Bright As Day (VIDEO)

Fireball' lights up night sky

Thanks for posting an all in one thread on this. It definitely heightens awareness with all of the solar flares, earthquakes, and space rocks/ice. I can't tell if there is more of it or if its just better watched but I think it's the former given that we've been watching all of these things for awhile. I am trying to find more about conditions under which an asteroid can be pulled in by our gravity or change course. I'm still searching as I think it's good to know - not that it would help to know. Also, whatever came of the Mexico thing? I can't read Spanish and all current tweets I can find are in Spanish.

Witnessed a yellow fireball streaking across the southern sky last night (5-18) around 9:30-10:00 pm. It traveled east to west before burning out. It was bigger than any falling star I've ever witnessed. This was in Southern Illinois.

reply to post by Dianec


I thought it was about time there was a thread for watching all the fireballs as they have definitely been on the increase for at least the better part of a year.

As to the Mexico fireball; that thread is already out to 6 pages and there is still no reliable information.

Here is a LINK to the Mexico fireball thread.

An article I read from a retired NASA research scientist stated a few years ago that we would soon be entering into some kind of cloud for a while on our trek through the milkyway and that we would be seeing more meteors up to the size of a basketball from that. These seem to be bigger than a basketball so I don't think they are related to that though.

I think most of us know that some fireball is about due here according to some people (webbot and etc..) and god knows it seems about no one is really tracking them.

If they really were tracking them so closely they need to explain to us what they were (not) tracking over Russia a few months ago.

I think they probably have little to no idea about what is really heading towards us right now.

It is really sad to say so - but I think it is true.

Joe

It seems to me that we are entering an area of space that has a denser field of space debris. It could be related to the close call by an asteroid a while back. If a large asteroid passes through an asteroid field it could easily gravity drag some of them along with it. Or it could also knock some of them out of their orbits and send some of them toward the earth's orbit at some point in time and space.

That does not preclude having the earth pass through an area containing a new meteor shower, such as the Perseids or Geminids, that we have not seen yet. Don't forget, the whole solar system is in motion relative to the galaxy and the rest of intergalactic space. We are constantly passing into new areas of space we have never been in before. That means that we could be entering an area of space where there is debris not associated with the solar system.

reply to post by happykat39


s&f

I think this could be an active thread at the rate things are going
Will be watching!

Originally posted by JoeP2247
I think most of us know that some fireball is about due here according to some people (webbot and etc..) and god knows it seems about no one is really tracking them.

If they really were tracking them so closely they need to explain to us what they were (not) tracking over Russia a few months ago.

I think they probably have little to no idea about what is really heading towards us right now.

It is really sad to say so - but I think it is true.

Joe

NASA has admitted that they only have enough funding to cover a measly 10% of the space around us. One would think that congress, the one that wastes billions, could spend a few million on something as important as looking out for a big rock that, given a few years warning, we could divert and prevent an extinction level event.

reply to post by happykat39



That is right - the thing that gets me is that "WE" are missing large enough chunks that have actually hit us that we SHOULD be concerned. Why are they missing so much. And frankly, is that 1.7 mile object coming at us in a few weeks maybe dragging stuff behind it that we CANNOT SEE should be very worrisome.

Joe

Star and flag for you Happy, I keep reading more and more about fireballs, and meteorites, and meteors, and we are experiencing more now a days. I go with we are going through a place in space that has a lot of debris.

Hopefully we will not have an impact. However, the laws of probability prevail.

When I heard of the meteor that hit in Russia, I couldn't help to think...." And there is an asteroid passing closer than our satellites today???? HHHMMMMMMmmmmm.....How ironic......"

There are a few of them just discovered last week, 2013 JM 22, and 2013 KB that are supposed to come close in the next week. Not to mention 1998 QE 2, the almost mile and a half wide one to pass on the 31st. It's trajectory will not make it a close pass, I just can't help but wonder if it also has any companions?....

I guess this week and a half will be quite interesting. Since it has warmed up ALOT here, I might come home from work and lay on the trampoline for a while. Will post if I see anything.

Four fireballs seen over the United States in last 24 hours.

There are several more links at the source link.

SOURCE

NOTE: Chart and map mentioned below can be seen at at source link

The most recent event occurred in Arkansas and Missouri on May 19th near 3:37 UTC. At the same time 3:37 UTC 4 witnesses reported a fireball in Arizona.

The distance between these two locations would inhibit witnesses from observing the same fireball from both locations.

On May 18th two large fireball meteors were also spotted within an hour of each other, one over the central east coast and another in Colorado. Below is a table of the events in question.

In addition, several eye-witnesses from Kentucky, Illinois, Arizona, Tennessee, Missouri and Mississippi reported hearing strange sounds during the appearance of the fireballs.

I can understand that people might easily get the impression that there are more fireballs now than before, but it has to be said most people's impressions are based on hearing reports, not actual experience, and there is no doubt that reporting of events has improved in recent years. Just how much, no one is sure, but it is possible that it has improved enough for people to get this impression. If the boffins can't give us a clear answer right now, I don't see how members of this forum can.

I'm not saying there hasn't been an increase in this type of event, just that with all the factors involved, there is not a straightforward answer available at this point in time.

One thing is certain - if there is an increase in the type/size of fireball that we see relatively often it does not follow that we will also see an increase in Chelyabinsk sized events. Chelyabinsk sized events are still relatively rare compared to the fireballs that occur, probably on a daily basis somewhere on Earth.

Originally posted by happykat39
That does not preclude having the earth pass through an area containing a new meteor shower, such as the Perseids or Geminids, that we have not seen yet.

Indeed not - new meteor showers are being discovered all the time - probably at least one or two per year. There are over 500 known meteor showers: The IAU Meteor Data Center(list of known meteor showers)

Originally posted by happykat39
We are constantly passing into new areas of space we have never been in before. That means that we could be entering an area of space where there is debris not associated with the solar system.

As I've said before on a number of occasions here on ATS, there is simple no evidence for this. Why? I'll explain it again...

Objects from outside our solar system are traveling at much higher speeds than those in orbit around our Sun. This is basic orbital physics. Objects that orbit Earth are slower than objects which orbit the Sun (common meteoroids and asteroids), which in turn are slower than objects that orbit the Galactic center. This abstract is about the detection of an intergalactic meteor particle that had a relative speed of 300 km/s. Normal meteors and fireballs (with solar orbits) have velocities that range from about 10-72 km/s.

How many reports has anyone here come across of super-fast fireballs?????

I find it interesting that just after I started this thread things calmed down for a while. There has been some activity, most notably a fireball overseas that caused a country wide sonic boom, but the overall activity level is back to normal; FOR NOW.

But I have seen too many credible claims, as well as news stories, that the frequency and intensity are increasing to write it off as a fluke. I fully expect the fireball activity to pick back up.

I believe that we are seeing two phenomenon at work. First, I think we are passing through a new area of space where the small asteroid population is higher than usual. Second, I believe that we are seeing the result of some of the larger near miss space rocks gravitationally dragging smaller debris behind them. Since more of the larger near miss asteroids and comets are still scheduled to fly by the earth I expect to see more of the dragged debris activity when they pass by.

Originally posted by happykat39
But I have seen too many credible claims, as well as news stories, that the frequency and intensity are increasing to write it off as a fluke.

Care to post links to any of these "credible claims"? Or even the news stories that say frequency is increasing?

Originally posted by happykat39
I fully expect the fireball activity to pick back up.

Based on what?

reply to post by happykat39


I guess you will always get the naysayers but I think it is about time for a thread devoted to these. Suggestion, if people see them they should try to detail their siting with where they are, what time, UTC is best if it can be determined and describe the size, colour, direction, etc.

Here is a link for you...

G7IZU Radio Reflection Detection

and a screen shot



and another

Meteor Detection Live Feed

and another screen shot



not from the same day, just in my pictures

I saw a good one on May 31st in Ohio and reported it to the American Meteor Society. I went back and looked just a minute ago and it says 268 total people reported on the one fireball.

It was truly one of those "WoW" moments. I had stepped out back to smoke. I was facing west and it came into my field of vision from the southeast and moved northwest. It seemed low, it was fluorescent green and it's tail was orange and long. It lasted 5 to 10 seconds.

I've watched an occassional meteor shower and this was in a league of it's own.

Originally posted by FireballStorm
Care to post links to any of these "credible claims"? Or even the news stories that say frequency is increasing?

So I guess that's a "no" happykat? So we will be having to rely on your "super honed senses" (I'm guessing here) that there is more on the way, even though the most educated scholars in the field can't tell us if there is even an increase...

You are in good company though - an ex-member (apacheman - a self proclaimed genius) also claimed that there was an increase, and that they were penetrating deeper and deeper two and a half years ago. Well, we're still here, and there have been busy times and near quiet in the mean time.

So why can't it be a natural (and normal) cycle, as suggested by NASA (it's usually the first half of the year that people start going on about "more fireballs than normal") combined with better reporting and detection as has been suggested numerous times before?

So why can't it be a natural (and normal) cycle, as suggested by NASA (it's usually the first half of the year that people start going on about "more fireballs than normal") combined with better reporting and detection as has been suggested numerous times before?

NASA is suggesting that these are the reasons. They are not stating a fact. Science is always changing. Scientific thought has changed through the years. How many here grew up being taught that Pluto was a planet but in 2006, scientists changed the definition and it was deemed no longer a planet. Same with the black swan, it was thought there was no such thing, then they discovered Australia. Or the earth is flat? They are saying that now that they have better data collecting and this could be the explanation for why it seems that there are more of these incidents. So by collecting more data, science can look back and say, yes there was an increase or no there wasn't. NASA has made their theory on why and ATS'ers are doing the same. Observation, collecting data.... that is how theories are made.

I tend to believe and agree that we are going through a place in space that has more debris. I do think that there are more meteors and fireballs. But only time will tell.

Science:
1. a branch of knowledge or study dealing with a body of facts or truths systematically arranged and showing the operation of general laws: the mathematical sciences.
2. systematic knowledge of the physical or material world gained through observation and experimentation.
3. any of the branches of natural or physical science.
4. systematized knowledge in general.
5. knowledge, as of facts or principles; knowledge gained by systematic study.

Originally posted by AuntB
NASA is suggesting that these are the reasons. They are not stating a fact.

Exactly. Did I state it as fact?

Originally posted by AuntB
Science is always changing. Scientific thought has changed through the years.

Only partly true. Some things change as new discoveries are made, but others remain the same. The coulors of the rainbow (for all intents and purposes, and throughout the course of human history), the law of gravity, the speed of light in a vacuum, the charge of an electron, etc.

Originally posted by AuntB
They are saying that now that they have better data collecting and this could be the explanation for why it seems that there are more of these incidents. So by collecting more data, science can look back and say, yes there was an increase or no there wasn't.

Exactly what I said a couple of posts ago.

Originally posted by AuntB
NASA has made their theory on why and ATS'ers are doing the same. Observation, collecting data.... that is how theories are made.

And where is the observation/data collection in this thread??

All I'm seeing here is people coming to this topic with NO background (ie nothing to compare) in the subject, except looking at reports that have been posted on ATS. What use is that when ATS has been "on alert" after the Russian fireball, and everyone is on the lookout for reports of meteors - they were not before, so obviously it's going to seem like there are more fireballs being reported isn't it?

happykat has been a member on here for not much over one year. When you come to a forum like this, which collects reports from the four corners of the Earth, many of which you would not come across if you were not on a forum like this, it's going to seem like there are many more reports than there were pre-ATS is it not?

I've been on this forum for about 6 years now (my previous account was hacked along with 1000's of others over a year ago), and following fireball reports for over 15 years. When I first became a member here, very few fireball reports made it on here compared to what I was seeing elsewhere, and even today I'm still coming across fireball reports that don't make it to ATS although not as many as 4-6 years ago.

What does that suggest about the likely perception of people on this forum with regard to the frequency of fireballs over the last 1/2 a decade or so? It doesn't take a genius to figure it out!

How many on this forum actually spend time out there observing meteors and fireballs? I do... although admittedly my time to do so recently has been very limited.

So it's all very well saying that is how theories are made, but you can't make a valid theory from watching the news and reading reports on a forum.

Originally posted by AuntB
I tend to believe and agree that we are going through a place in space that has more debris.

Why should that not be the case? Do you really expect that the debris littering our solar system is evenly spread out, and we will always encounter fireball producing debris at the same frequency?

The real question is, is the "peak" significantly greater than it has been in the past?

That is a question that can only be answered by careful statistical analysis of data collected by other means than people reporting fireballs which is bound to be tainted by trends and methods of collecting reports.

Originally posted by AuntB
Science:
1. a branch of knowledge or study dealing with a body of facts or truths systematically arranged and showing the operation of general laws: the mathematical sciences.
2. systematic knowledge of the physical or material world gained through observation and experimentation.
3. any of the branches of natural or physical science.
4. systematized knowledge in general.
5. knowledge, as of facts or principles; knowledge gained by systematic study.

A shame no one on this thread has a clue what the above means...