Welcome to the shooting gallery: fireball incidence 2005:1.28/day 2011:4.94/day

I'm not sure where the best place to put this is, a lot of forums qualify.

I've been following a lot of different subjects over the past few months that seemed to converge my thinking and research upon this data. Try to bear in mind that I am merely presenting the data from 2005 to the present. This is information, not fearmongering. I offer it in the sense that chance and survival favor the prepared mind.

To summarize what I'm about to tell you: we seem to be entering a more densely populated volume of space. How dense it will eventually get is anyone's guess. We could be seeing the peak, we could be on the edge. But this is what is, at this moment in time: more and bigger fireballs are entering the earth's atmosphere.

Each year since 2005, the American Meteor Society receives hundreds of fireball reports,this page contains the logs of all fireballs reproted to them since 2005:

www.amsmeteors.org...

The totals are:

2005: 466 firebals reported, average 1.28 per day
2006: 515 firebals reported, average 1.41 per day
2007: 587 firebals reported, average 1.61 per day
2008: 726 firebals reported, average 1.98 per day
2009: 693 firebals reported, average 1.90 per day
2010: 947 firebals reported, average 2.59 per day
2011: 89 firebals reported, average 4.94 per day

Plot those points, and if you don't find the slope a bit scary, you're made of sterner stuff than me; either that or you don't grasp the implications.

And it's not just us in the target range either:

www.abovetopsecret.com...
www.nasa.gov...
www.sott.net...

The sun and moon are also getting hit more frequently; bigger things and more of them.

It makes me wonder...

Now this is purely speculation upon my part, but.....we know the Maya inherited their calendar from the Olmec , who inherited it from...well, no one knows. Now, what if the survivors of the Clovis extinction had a high enough astronomy tech (knowledge) to see and understand the comet that hit the Luarentide ice sheet and wipe them out? If they had figured out Venus' period and such, perhaps they calculated the period of the dense part, and built the only warning they could think of that might survive millenia, a calendar whose end coincided with hitting the densest part? Like I said, purely speculative, but the idea keeps tugging at me.

Great information, things are happening on all fronts I would say.

This is a random sampling of witness reports from the last few events. Clearly the size is going up.

Witness report, event 86, 2011, Boca Raton, FL. amsmeteors.org

I first noticed it at about 60 degrees above the horizon and it burned out after passing in front of my vehicle and traveling about another 100 yards to west after passing in front of me. It burned out at about maybe 200 feet tops from the ground, it actually looked as if it were going to make it to earth before burning out it almost looked like it may have after burning out and I almost wanted to walk out into the field where I thought it looked like it were going to land. It was so beautiful it has really sparked and revived an interest in looking for meteors. It was a large Orange, reddish fire ball and had bluish, green tail streaks it must have easily lasted visibly for what was probably 20 to 30 seconds My car windows were up so I am unaware if there was any audible sounds .

Witness report, event 83, 2011 wauconda, IL;Six Lakes, MI

It was a large glowing green ball, in comparison t o the moon, the green ball was larger

This was a very large "meteorite". We have never seen anything this large or brightly colored. We thought it was very close and impacted the earth until we realized we heard no sound.

Wintess report, event 64, 2011 Lyons, CO

The fireball was extremely bright and very colorfu l. The core was emerald green (looked like the core was fractured into 5 pieces), then surrounded by azure blue, then orange rays, then surrounded by white/orange light which continued through the tail. I have seen many large fireballs over the years, but this was by far the biggest and brightest. I happened to be looking up in the sky right where it appeared (reclining in the hot tub), with an unobstructed view - so I saw it very clearly. My guess is that it fell in the area of Fort Collins, CO. I viewed this gorgeous sight from Lyons, CO. with a friend

)

If the nibiru crowd get wind of this, they will have a field day saying it's the reason for the increase. My own opinion is that we are getting into a denser part of space and maybe it will get worse.Or, since we are approaching a line up of sun and center of the galaxy maybe some type of gravitational effect. Let's hope a big one doesn't get through, with all the flooding and storms, that would be the topper.

I too have been trying to get people into such discussions.....have started a thread on it quite a while back with little input by atsers....
The frequency of the barrage of fireballs has been inctreasing dramatically.
There are other possible reasons these fireballs are hitting us.
And the increase in frequency may be due to the need for atmospheric cleansing.
The ETs sending these things at us, are attempting to mitigate some kind of chemical damages that the chemtrails are causing.
Probably trying to rid the atmosphere of particles seeded by the immense aireal spraying of aluminium and other harmful contents to the chemtrails.
Other possibilities include harmful effects of such things as Haarp,or weather weapons we know exist but dont know how they work.
Trying to mitigate the effects of the vortices caused by atomic testing or their own crafts drive mechanisms.
There is a popular theory of the comming of nibiru or planet x that is disturbing the Oort cloud which is a band of asteriods beyond mars.
There has been some irregularity involved too...
Albaqurqi sic had three different red fireballs fall and explode over it, at the exact same time of day, three days running, back in the forties.
The odds against such a thoing being astronomical, pun intended.

One of the possible side effects of the 25 sundivers was an increase in coronal mass ejections and a very large coronal hole resulting in a very intense solar wind with an unusually high peak density of 65.4 protons per cubic centimeter as opposed to a norm of 2-10 per cc. I can't find the specific day it was, but I noted it on these sites:

www2.nict.go.jp...
spaceweather.com...

The point I'm trying to make is that with at least a threefold increase in meteor impacts on the earth's atmosphere, the amount of energy being delivered to the atmosphere is significant, especially with "splash" effects from increased impacts on the sun factored in. It seems to make the global warming debate a bit moot on one hand, and alarmingly incomplete on the other.

Is it possible that the increased fireball activity has anything to do with the strange bird deaths? Perhaps the shock wave? It might be a stretch, I'm merely thinking out loud...perhaps a chemical interaction from the fragments?

I think a correlation of fireball tracks with known animal deaths might be fruitful, but it would be complicated (hah! understatement) by varying wind strengths and directions as it passed through the different layers. However, IF (big if) such a correlation could be made, then a mass death would be predictable if there truly is a connection of some sort, be it physical, chemical, or electromagnetic.

Thoughts anyone?

reply to post by apacheman


These are not uneducated guesses...just questions due to the first things that pop into my head; so forgive any ignorance I may display here.

Why does reading this make me wonder if we are heading towards a black hole and that time truly is speeding up? And is time really speeding up or are we just being sucked into a black hole… and like a vaccuum effect, the closer we get to the hole, the faster we are pulled towards it?!

I would appreciate any and all thoughtful responses.

The average for 2011 is going to be high because it's only been 2011 for 21 days! Maybe it will even out at the end of the year.

reply to post by Throwback


Granted, it could even out...

But even if it fell back toward's last year's numbers, it would still be triple 2005's if you extrapolate the monthly averages. The data are indisputable: the number have been steadily increasing since 2005, and continue to increase.

Sooner or later the law of averages says we'll be hit with a Tunguska-type rock again sometime soon. Hopefully far out to sea and that'll be the biggest. What frets me, though is how to calculate the difference between getting hit with one great big rock and a few hundred little to medium ones.

Originally posted by stirling
I too have been trying to get people into such discussions.....have started a thread on it quite a while back with little input by atsers....
The frequency of the barrage of fireballs has been inctreasing dramatically.
There are other possible reasons these fireballs are hitting us.
And the increase in frequency may be due to the need for atmospheric cleansing.
The ETs sending these things at us, are attempting to mitigate some kind of chemical damages that the chemtrails are causing.
Probably trying to rid the atmosphere of particles seeded by the immense aireal spraying of aluminium and other harmful contents to the chemtrails.
Other possibilities include harmful effects of such things as Haarp,or weather weapons we know exist but dont know how they work.
Trying to mitigate the effects of the vortices caused by atomic testing or their own crafts drive mechanisms.
There is a popular theory of the comming of nibiru or planet x that is disturbing the Oort cloud which is a band of asteriods beyond mars.
There has been some irregularity involved too...
Albaqurqi sic had three different red fireballs fall and explode over it, at the exact same time of day, three days running, back in the forties.
The odds against such a thoing being astronomical, pun intended.

The idea of sending meteorites through the atmosphere to cleanse it, is the same as trying to get steam out of your bathroom by throwing baseballs through it. Just ain't gonna work.

reply to post by apacheman


Interesting. Certainly looks like a damatic increase in numbers.

Does anyone have links to similar time series data for other locations around the world?

One of the important things to note here is that these numbers represent only reports from the US and occasionally Canada. If we assume that represents 1/6th of the planet's observed volume, and we assume that our numbers are proportional to the global numbers, then we are looking at an increase globally from ~2800 in 2005 to ~5900 in 2010, and 534 around the world so far this year. I could be far off, I've not found any fireball logs for othe parts of the world yet. Feel free to change my assumptions, so long as you stick to extrapolating from the observed data.

If rock size is distributed from dust grains to miles-wide, simple logic tells you that when you get hit more often, the chance of getting hit by something bigger than what you're used to goes up. The reported data support this. So don't be surprised when a bigger-than-average space rock visits your neighborhood.

I posted a reply to your post in the other thread, but I thought it would also be appropriate to copy and paste my reply here:

Originally posted by C.H.U.D.
An increase in the number of reports does not equal an increase in in the actual number of events.

You would expect more people to make reports as more people find out that there is somewhere where they can make reports, and as people become more aware of these events happening. Both these factors are fed by the growth of the internet and a notable increase in media coverage over the years. That in turn is since we have had an explosion in the number of cameras, and therefore footage of these previously very rarely captured events. Without footage, the mainstream media often don't cover these events as it's not much of a story without the all important footage.

All of this is changing gradually with time, and over the years we will continue to see more and more reports even though the rates of these objects remains relatively constant over time. Besides the reports from the general public, we also have data from other sources (meteor camera networks and amateur/professional meteor observers for example) which we can compare the data from the public with, which is why we know that there has not been a real increase in these events over the years.

reply to post by C.H.U.D.


With all due respect, from where does your assertion derive? You cite no authority, so I assume that it is your opinion that it is a matter of more people watching.

We aren't discussing an increase in reports, but rather an increase in incidents. Reports per incident have also increased, both due to more people watching, and the larger sizes impacting, creating more discernable fireballs.

But don't just take my word for it: go look at the data you obviously haven't seen yet, or you'd know that what you've asserted is nonsense.

Today's reports push the daily average to 5.11 per day. 92 fireballs reported by 268 people.

For the record regarding reports:

2005: 903
2006: 920
2007: 1224
2008: 1594
2009: 1871
2010: 2525

If you compare those to the incidents, you'll see that the ratio of reports to incidents is roughly 2::1, increasing slightly over the past two years, approaching 3::1, so I think we are seeing an actual increase in incidents as opposed to an increase in reporting.

Great thread Apacheman

For being a huge vacuum, there sure seems to be a lot of debris flying around in space. I am surprised that we don't have more incidents with asteroids taking out satellites.

If this is an increase in visible fireballs, how much more smaller particles are hitting the atmosphere. The Earth absorbs a lot of space debris. This has got to have some effect on our atmosphere.

Anyone seen that utube video of the growing Earth theory that tyranny22 posted on on this thread?

www.abovetopsecret.com...

www.youtube.com...

Originally posted by apacheman
reply to post by C.H.U.D.

 

With all due respect, from where does your assertion derive? You cite no authority, so I assume that it is your opinion that it is a matter of more people watching.

I can understand your skepticism. It's not just my opinion, but my opinion based on over a decade of observing, studying, and talking with both amateur and professional researchers. The same opinion is also held by meteor scientists.

The next logical question is what is causing the apparent increase in fireballs
seen this month? The key word here is apparent. It could very well be that there is no increase at all, but rather a marked increase in the number of reported fireballs. Mr. Hankey
has worked with the AMS in providing an easy way to report fireball sightings
and the general public has responded with a record
number of reports so far in January. If you look through the last five years
that the AMS has available, you will see an increase in
every year. The increase is certainly not as dramatic as January 10 vs. January
11, but that again can be attributed to the recent
change in format. I am also confident that no matter the number of NEO's in
January 2012, there were still be more fireball reports
in January 12 vs. January 11.
Interesting subject and I appreciate the contributions of Dirk, Mike, Wayne, and
Carl!

Bob Lunsford

Source: click here

Bob Lunsford is the Operations Manager/Journal Editor of the AMS.

Most large fireballs are green. And it certainly is not clear to me that we
are seeing any statistically significant increase in fireball activity. Like
so much in nature, meteor frequencies are described by Poisson statistics,
and that means we'll naturally see periods of increased activity and periods
of decreased activity. Our brains want to connect this to something
physical, but I doubt anything is really there.

Chris

Source: click here

Chris L Peterson runs the Cloudbait Observatory which is a dedicated meteor camera observatory.

Originally posted by apacheman
reply to post by C.H.U.D.

 

We aren't discussing an increase in reports, but rather an increase in incidents. Reports per incident have also increased, both due to more people watching, and the larger sizes impacting, creating more discernable fireballs.

Well the majority of fireballs and meteors are unseen by people - two thirds of Earth's surface is ocean, and much of the remainder is sparsely populated, plus many meteors are missed due to daylight, and the fact that most people are tucked up in bed during the best time to see them (night). Many are also hidden by the weather (clouds), and in today's society when people are outdoors they are usually busy rushing about and not concentrating on looking at the sky.

If most meteors are missed, then it follows that an increase in the number of people looking for them will result in an increase of meteors reported. You said yourself there are more reports per incident. That can only mean that more people are reporting them and/or looking for them. If there are more people reporting/looking for them then meteors and fireballs that were previously not witnessed/reported will start being reported, even if the rate of events remains constant.

Originally posted by apacheman
reply to post by C.H.U.D.

 

But don't just take my word for it: go look at the data you obviously haven't seen yet, or you'd know that what you've asserted is nonsense.

nonsense?

The only thing that makes no sense here is basing your speculation on raw fireball report data. There are factors you have to take into account, or the conclusion will be invalid.

You are assuming I have not looked at fireball data before, but I have, and I have also seen (with my own eyes) nothing of the increase in fireballs that you are suggesting in many 100s of hours spent observing the sky for meteors.

I am certainly not taking your word for it. My opinion is based on experience of the subject and observation over a fairly long period of time. Can you say the same?

reply to post by C.H.U.D.

I'll see your decade and raise you two: I've been keeping an eye on this subject for over 30 years, along with weather data and various other earth/space subjects. My mother first brought my attention to HAARP, for instance, some thrity or forty years ago, I forget. From my personal observations, there HAS been an increase in the past few years.

The next logical question is what is causing the apparent increase in fireballs seen this month? The key word here is apparent. It could very well be that there is no increase at all, but rather a marked increase in the number of reported fireballs.

Key word in your quote is the COULD that I've bolded. No where is it stated as fact that the increase is a reporting artifact, only that it COULD be.

If most meteors are missed, then it follows that an increase in the number of people looking for them will result in an increase of meteors reported. You said yourself there are more reports per incident. That can only mean that more people are reporting them and/or looking for them. If there are more people reporting/looking for them then meteors and fireballs that were previously not witnessed/reported will start being reported, even if the rate of events remains constant.

Again, the assumption that more reports =more people watching is a bald assertion without any substantiation. Has the population increased that dramatically since 2005? Has the Internet suddenly blossomed? Personally, I see no evidence supporting the "more watchers" theory. By 2005, we had pretty much saturated the public space with cameras looking for terrorists, so I would find it difficult to believe that there was a significant enough increase in cameras to account for the increase in fireballs. I take exception to the statement that "it can only mean"...it can just as easily mean that there are in fact more of them. The proper assumption to make is that the number of missed fireballs has increased in proportion to the number of observed ones, not that more people are paying more attention. Why would more people be paying more attention and reporting more often? What explains the change in behavior?

As a further proof, please read the observer reports and compare the reported penetration depths and magnitudes. Far more are getting deeper into the atmosphere, nearly hitting the ground. Far more are being reported as bigger and brighter than any seen before by people who have seen several over the years.

The universe is not exactly a steafy-state place: things change, some patches of space are more thickly populated than others. This is a somple, easily proven fact. I'm old enough to trust my own eyes and memories, and to distrust those who tell me I'm not seeing what's in front of my eyes. I've heard too many facile explanations that turned out to be b.s., to readily accept the "more observers" theory without some substantial proof backing it up.

Til you provide some actual proof of the theory, I'll trust my eyes and stand by the observed facts: more and bigger fireballs are hitting us.

reply to post by apacheman


I think you made a very solid case. Why would more people be reporting more fireballs since 2005?

Nothing happened over the last few years to encourage people reporting fireballs. I have to say, it is something off my radar. I could see an increase in the year after they put out those two or three killer asteroid disaster movies, and then a gradual decline after that.

This is yet another phenomenon pointing to these being strange times indeed.