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The immediate cause was a natural climate fluctuation called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO switches between two states, and this winter (in its negative phase) saw a southward shift of the jet stream, bringing cold air over the UK from northern Europe and Russia. The Met Office identifies three other natural climate variations that may have made the negative NAO phase more likely. One is the recent behaviour of another natural climate fluctuation, called the Madden-Julian Oscillation ( MJO). It was particularly strong during late February and March – often a sign that a negative NAO is on the way. This winter also saw what’s called a Sudden Stratospheric Warming ( SSW) event, where winds in the stratosphere above the north pole reverse direction. This brought cold weather conditions to the UK. Finally, Europe’s climate is influenced by another natural climate system – the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation ( AMO). While the influence on UK winters is unclear, the report suggests:
“It is argued that amplification ofglobal warming over the Arctic is reducing the equator to pole temperature gradient, thereby weakening the strength of the mid-latitude jet streams.” This could allow cold Arctic air to push further south, over mid-latitude countries like the UK, and weather patterns could stay longer in one place. The possibility of a link between the Arctic and UK weather appears to be gaining scientific support, but the Met Office acknowledges it’s still an “area of ongoing research”. The Met Office has told us it’s holding an “ informal workshop” in the next two to three months for leading UK scientists plus several international experts.
Originally posted by FissionSurplus
I find the deep jet stream dip to be interesting for this late in April, but winter was late.
This could be just a normal abberation of weather patterns, or an indication that the north pole's ice is melting faster....don't know.
However, I did read that this year's hurricane season (June through November) is supposed to have a higher than normal amount of severe storms.
We shall see.
Originally posted by kdog1982
reply to post by Iwinder
Yes,I can.Here is the picture you asked for.
During the 2012-2013 Winter Storm Season, The Weather Channel decided to name winter storms. This idea was first used by the Southern California Weather Authority, part of The Weather Space.com Networks. TheWeatherSpace.com will attempt to stop the channel from doing it again in the 2013-2014 season.
Originally posted by kdog1982
What I find interesting is that they have been naming these storms.I don't recall them doing that before.
During the 2012-2013 Winter Storm Season, The Weather Channel decided to name winter storms. This idea was first used by the Southern California Weather Authority, part of The Weather Space.com Networks. TheWeatherSpace.com will attempt to stop the channel from doing it again in the 2013-2014 season.
www.theweatherspace.com...
Originally posted by jadedANDcynical
Naming these buggers is new indeed. Interesting to say the least.
A little shameless self promotion here:
Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns
A thread I did a while back and may have some bearing on the current discussion. If there are cyclic patterns to weather tied to the cyclic patterns of the sun (which only makes sense to me due to the fact that the sun is the major driving force in earth's wether), then we might be witnessing phenomena that have happened before but because of the advance of technology we are better able to grasp the wider picture.
TextStrong positive phases of the NAO tend to be associated with above-averagel temperatures in the eastern United States and across northern Europe and below-average temperatures in Greenland and oftentimes across southern Europe and the Middle East. They are also associated with above-average precipitation over northern Europe and Scandinavia in winter, and below-average precipitation over southern and central Europe. Opposite patterns of temperature and precipitation anomalies are typically observed during strong negative phases of the NAO. During particularly prolonged periods dominated by one particular phase of the NAO, anomalous height and temperature patterns are also often seen extending well into central Russia and north-central Siberia.
The NAO exhibits considerable interseasonal and interannual variability, and prolonged periods (several months) of both positive and negative phases of the pattern are common. The wintertime NAO also exhibits significant multi-decadal variability (Hurrell 1995, Chelliah and Bell 2005). For example, the negative phase of the NAO dominated the circulation from the mid-1950's through the 1978/79 winter. During this approximately 24-year interval, there were four prominent periods of at least three years each in which the negative phase was dominant and the positive phase was notably absent. In fact, during the entire period the positive phase was observed in the seasonal mean only three times, and it never appeared in two consecutive years.
reply to post by kdog1982
Something to pay close attention to is the North Atlantic Oscillation.
Our weather has been weird for so long, I'm not sure I'd notice "normal"
Originally posted by kdog1982
reply to post by DontTreadOnMe
I think naming the storms added into the over-hyped drama factor.
More attention=more money.