The China vs. US war is BS. It will never happen, unless others start it.

This started began as a reply in this thread. And should be expounded upon.
www.abovetopsecret.com...
, but I think it has merit.

I don’t think that a war between the US/West vs. China will happen outright, but rather it will start with one or the others allies in the Asian region, and escalate from there.

War is about resources; don’t let anybody tell you different. Always has been and it always will be. Race, Religion and Ideology are just factors to be used to drum up the support of the people.

North Korea is currently starving; they could well launch an attack on South Korea just to gain more resources (and possibly thin the herd some). If this were to happen the likelihood of the US and China getting dragged in is pretty high.

Then we have all the posturing of China in the South China Sea which is quite rich in rare metals, oil and natural gas. The US has plenty of defense agreements with Nations in that region as well. Taiwan, Philippines, Japan, not to mention AUS/NZ to the south. Again, the likelihood of the US getting dragged in is pretty high.

If you pay attention to the diplomatic and saber rattling language coming out of that region you will notice that none of the players have used any Race, Religion or Ideology messages. Though you will see that resources are brought up frequently.

I can see China trying to seize the islands that Japan also claims, but logistically that would be a challenge for them as those islands are also quite easily within Japans reach. I guarantee that Japan would call for her allies to help as well. You can’t get to the resources if they are continuously being bombed and fought over.

Thankfully, cooler heads are prevailing for the moment. The economic warfare will continue as usual.

But changes in leadership by any of the Nations could bring about a whole new set of scenarios. For better or worse.

China and the US will face off against each other economically, but not militarily unless they have to in my opinion. If the later come to pass, then all bets are off the table.

It is still a touch and go subject regarding all Nations involved. Please keep your emotions in check and try to respond using critical thought. After all, we can’t wish these tensions away, no matter how much we would like to.

reply to post by TDawgRex


Make no mistake. The ordinary Chinese see the USA and the West in general as the enemy. As the Chinese will tell you, they beat the USA in Korea.

The Chinese government has been stoking nationalism for years.

Don't be too optimistic about a confrontation not escalating.

Originally posted by ollncasino
reply to post by TDawgRex

 

Make no mistake. The ordinary Chinese see the USA and the West in general as the enemy. As the Chinese will tell you, they beat the USA in Korea.

The Chinese government has been stoking nationalism for years.

Don't be too optimistic about a confrontation not escalating.

But that is culture vs. culture isn't it?

The Governments on both sides are engaged in economic warfare, ie: business, which China seems to be winning, but are slowly losing ground again as their economy has grown so fast and is now slowing so fast that the people are starting to question their own Government. The haves-nots are getting pissed off at the haves…just like in the West.

One way for China to alleviate this would be to prod one her allies into doing something stupid and hope to ride the storm out. Not likely to happen though.

reply to post by TDawgRex


I agree with you OP that there will not be a war between America and China, but I disagree that it is possible a war between the two states could start if another state player such as DPRK or Japan were to start a war.

If it comes to it and DPRK where to start a all out war on the Koran Peninsular (very unlikely) China will stay out of it (I have some further information regarding this that I am not prepared to disclose).

I think if it came to war between Japan and China America would then chose to stay out of it.

Good OP though.

Originally posted by TDawgRex

The Governments on both sides are engaged in economic warfare, ie: business, which China seems to be winning, but are slowly losing ground again as their economy has grown so fast and is now slowing so fast that the people are starting to question their own Government. The haves-nots are getting pissed off at the haves…just like in the West.

There is very little support for the Communist party in China. Even many lower rank party members feel no loyalty. It would take very little for the Chinese people to revolt and the CCP knows that. Everyone is sick of the corruption.

That means the Communist party has very little, if any, room to back off in any confrontation with the USA.

Bear in mind that the Chinese people are also naturally very nationalistic anyway and also very aggressive as a group.

reply to post by ollncasino


Ok I honestly mean no disrespect but I have to say this based on that last post of yours it is very clear you know nothing about China if you are underestimating the power of the CCP the way you just did.

reply to post by OtherSideOfTheCoin


You rascal you! Now I'm curious. I HATE that state of mind.

Please enlighten us.

I guess you guys missed the part about China backing their Yuan with Gold, or fail to calculate the implications this would mean to the US economy (which today is largely comprised of oil transactions and other transactions happening in dollars, due to it´s current reserve status).

To put it bluntly, this will never be allowed by the U.S, as the reserve status would quickly go to the Yuan, and thus U.S would literally be turned into a third world country overnight. The only way to prevent this at this stage would be an all out war, but this is not something that willl ever be admitted by the officials in the MSM.

Another reason/false flag to gain the public support will first happen.

Just wait and see.

reply to post by NeoVain


Gold is not the only commodity to back finances. The US is the Bread basket of the world, even with a drought going on.

Prime agricultural real estate, rare metals, gold, silver, petroleum, natural gas, coal, etc, etc all have a say in today’s economics.

China does not have all that. The US does, but it seems to me that they are holding back on exploiting those resources.

From a business point of view, “Let the Yuan go to gold…big deal. We have more things that you actually need.”

Originally posted by OtherSideOfTheCoin

Ok I honestly mean no disrespect but I have to say this based on that last post of yours it is very clear you know nothing about China if you are underestimating the power of the CCP the way you just did.

My opinions of China, Chinese people and the CCP are based on extensive personal experience.

So no, you are mistaken when you assume I know nothing of China. Have you considered that I perhaps have a level of understanding much deeper than your own?

Can you tell me who holds the ultimate power in China?

I'll give you a clue. They have white number plates.

reply to post by NeoVain


China backing their currency with gold? I'm betting that's pure hype. The exchange rate would would crash their exports drastically, causing further collapses in their economy. Their real estate market has taken a dump.

They're stuck in the same mess as everyone else. If their currency is climbs, exports drop...fast.

Do you have an explaination?

reply to post by TDawgRex


I am not talking about what other countries need from the U.S, but what the U.S needs from other countries. The "Big" thing the U.S have is the petrodollar, which puts them ahead of all other countries by a significant margin in practically all areas of economical lenience.

Please educate yourself.

en.wikipedia.org...

Most oil sales throughout the world are denominated in United States dollars (USD).[1] According to proponents of the petrodollar warfare hypothesis, because most countries rely on oil imports, they are forced to maintain large stockpiles of dollars in order to continue imports. This creates a consistent demand for USDs and upwards pressure on the USD's value, regardless of economic conditions in the United States. This in turn allegedly allows the US government to gain revenues through seignorage and by issuing bonds at lower interest rates than they otherwise would be able to. As a result the U.S. government can run higher budget deficits at a more sustainable level than can most other countries. A stronger USD also means that goods imported into the United States are relatively cheap.

The U.S NEEDS other countries to use their dollar. Just imagine what would happen where they to loose this advantage overnight?

Originally posted by nwtrucker

China backing their currency with gold?

That appears to be the apparent plan to wrestle the world reserve currency status from the US dollar.

On the other hand, there simply isn't physically enough gold in the world to do so.

Expect something more indirect. The Chinese like indirect plans.

I agree with you on much of this, OP. Just how DOES the United States and China go from a state of complete peace with diplomatic, economic and cultural ties flowing back and forth every day between super-powers (I do consider them one and have for several years at least) to a point of open war and Americans shooting Chinese nationals in Uniform? I can't get there from here in mental leaps. I literally can't. If ANYTHING, it's a Missile war and over in a day. Maybe a week if both sides are really really clever and hid things the other didn't know about to destroy on the first day.


Now your other scenario? Oh yeah...That I CAN see. I can absolutely see where the US backs it's proxy while China backs their proxy in the Western Pacific across a number of potential hot spots ....and it all spirals out of control. Very similar to where the Korean War VERY nearly went if Truman hadn't fired Big Mac. His ideas ... Well... patently insane by today's standards. Facing who knew how many hundreds of thousands of Chinese looking to push everyone back into the water? Well....I imagine things COULD run right off the deep end before some even realize where it's gone so fast.

reply to post by NeoVain


I have educated myself and in the process learned to not take any pundits word for what they say. Food, Energy is what makes the world go round today. Not gold, so much anyways. All the gold in the world will not help you if the rest of the world decides not to sell you food.

China is currently claiming (outside of International Maritime Law) legal rights to which they really have no legal rights to resources.

These things often lead to war.

Even Japan is fed up with their antics. People claim that the US is a bully...well, China is right up there with them. (And so is Russia, by the way)

From what i have gathered it is a Cold war US Vs China trade, Mil and GDP not only is there a chance of war but a plan of war english.pravda.ru... from the link

The situation is deteriorating, and the USA is considering possible scenarios of a war with China, and even nuclear conflict. On January 2nd, Obama signed into law a new concept of national security, which ordered the U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM) by August 15th to submit a report on the underground network of tunnels in China and the U.S. capabilities to use conventional and nuclear forces to neutralize and destroy these tunnels. Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists Hans Kristensen said that the lack of transparency in the intentions of both countries increases the risk of a war between China and the U.S. He said that the two countries are dancing a dangerous dance that increases military tension and could potentially lead to a small war in the Pacific.

so yes there is the possibility of war , not only with china but DPRK as well, I think if we went to war with DPRK this would give China the reason to join in , Not to for get the Cyber war going on, this should be considered a first strike.

Well as it stands, China seems to be engaged in some sort of technological cold war with America right now, and there military spending is increasing. One thing that essentialy led to the First World War was the British Empire unyielding knack for throttling its competitors, much in the same way the American Empire does today.

The problem with this however, when any emerging nation, such as Germany at the turn of the century decides it has more than sufficient capabilities to expand itself beyond its borders, it will come into direct conflict with any other Empire or, in a worst case scenario, the most dominant empire at the time, that will never concede to the idea of an emerging competitor. Instead of diplomacy and negotiating, we have arms races and war. People have very little idea how close Russia and America actualy came to war over the decades, if it were not for the likes of Gorbachev the world right now would more than likely be an irradiated wasteland.

China and America are very much in the same situation now, it may never happen, but it might, history shows us, it is more than likely. Hopefully it wont, but we just dont know.

reply to post by bekod

Any scenario that leads to war between the two nations results in Chinese defeat. At least for the next decade or so.

No oil reserves, food supplies limited, extremely fragile infrastructure.(far more so than the U.S. infrastucture), make me believe that internal collapse would happen before any definitive military conclusion.

With the possible exception of China's non-nuclear submarines and cyber warfare, there's not any area where the U.S. doesn't far exceed Chinese military capabilties.

Any move by China directly probably won't occur for a fair period of time-they are capable of patience. All they have to do is wait for 10-20 years. At the rate of economic, and as a result, military downsizing, combined with continued growth of their military, I'm betting they are content with their rate of progress if, in fact, that is their goal.

I'd bet NK would have already moved if they were sure of Chinese support. As China isn't quite ready, it's a good bet NK have been "apprised"


At a guess, only a critical internal issue, food supplies, rebellion/fear of power loss by the ruling juntas would trump the timing issue for either country.....maybe.

reply to post by nwtrucker

Any scenario that leads to war between the two nations results in Chinese defeat. At least for the next decade or so

No no, look, please be under no illusion here, if ANY modern industrialised nation were to go to war with each other, NO ONE is a winner.

Please do not look at recent campaigns in the Middle-East and North Africa with third world countries and think this is how wars are fought. A technologicaly capable nation with modern and very advanced manufacturing capabilities with access to the sort of intelligence infrastructures and banking practices any other country such as America may have are capable of causing apocalyptic devastation.

If say for example either France, Germany, Great Britain or Turkey decided to just go mental and invade one another, pretty much the whole of Europe and vast swathes of Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia are going up in flames. Let alone super states such as America, Russia or China going to war.

I can really only stress that ANY modern industrialised nation going to war in todays world will more than likely result in the almost total annihilation of our planet, regardless of nuclear warheads.

reply to post by nwtrucker


Good synopsis.

People have a tendency to get carried away emotionally.

From the man himself…Sun Tzu, was dead nuts on in many cases. Especially these days.