Advanced Warning Of Snow and Deep Cold Arriving in the UK.

Hey All,

Some of you, the weather enthusiasts, will be aware of the strong possibility of deep cold and snow arriving to the shores of the UK over the course of the next 2 weeks. How strong this deep cold will be is anyones guess but it has the potential to be as bad, if not worse than November/December 2010 or January 2009.

Some of you may remember seeing this NASA image of the entire UK covered in snow...something quite unusual.

I'm not posting this as a doom and gloom or whatever thread, just simply getting it out there before the Met Office get the courage to do so....

And also in part to debunk those who will claim HAARP, Aliens or the excuse of global warming (this is a natural event).

Firstly, you need to understand why we havent experienced cold so far and why we are about to. In short it is because of the temperature of the Stratosphere. In recent years, a corrolation between a snowy UK and the temperature of the Stratosphere above the North Pole has been discovered and researched. This temperature variation can have quite an impact on our weather.

These past few months, the temperature above the North Pole has been very cold (as you'd expect) which has created a strong Polar Vortex many km's above the North Pole. This is usually because of the weaker energy from the Sun and hence the temperature drop. What then happens is the Ozone can't heat up. This cold temperature creates a very strong Jet Stream, this Jet Stream then drives the default weather into the UK....which is, you guessed it...rain and wind, we have had plenty of that recently.

When the temperature in the stratosphere increases, it destabalises the Polar Vortex which in turn disrupts the Jet Steeam and makes it "meander". This can allow cold air to stream in from Europe towards the UK...notable examples being late 2010 and early 2009.

This is what is forecast to happen.

The expectant weather would be relatively calm, cold and snowy. The further East you are, the more likely you are to be snowy as obviously the colder air is continental and the continent is to our east. Depending on the weather patterns that set up, we could see streamers of snow showers from the N/NE/E that could produce heavy snow, thundersnow or simply localised showers because of the "lake effect"...the finer details cannot be forecast at the moment, this thread is about potential.

A lot of my information comes courtesy of a weather forum, with some extremely knowledgable people on it, but i have been a member since 2005 (because i am a weather enthusiast)...must be the boring UK weather we experience that drives it.

Anyways, take this thread as you will, watch the weather on TV and online and realise that should things follow the projections (80/90% confidence) you will be aware and can organise accordingly.

I have provided some further reading below:

Stratosphere Tutorial
Stratosphere Temperature Forecast

Sudden Stratospheric Warming

There is one further dramatic stratospheric phenomenon that can occur occasionally during the polar winter, this is known as a Sudden Stratospheric Warming. A Sudden Stratospheric Warming occurs when there is an abrupt warming of air, which is introduced into the vortex. The reasons behind this are complex and the results are dramatic. The stratospheric polar vortex can completely disintegrate and the winds flow in the opposite direction. This can have an amplified effect on the weather patterns seen in the troposphere, with a higher increase in .blocking patterns. that inhibit the normal flow of the jet stream. These disruptive patterns can last up to two months and once again colder weather can be experienced at latitudes further south.

One example of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming occurred in late January 2009 - the effects were felt very quickly, in early February 2009. The winds came in from the East, bringing snow and below average temperatures.

Those socks I got for Xmas might come in handy then ....:-)

Thankyou for the info and an interesting read too...

PDUK

reply to post by jrmcleod


Thanks for the heads up!

Although, I have quite enjoyed the mild winter so far, it would be nice to see some sleigh action, seeing as I haven't seen any for the last two years.

Very good informative thread.. was a good read.

Not looking forward to this bad weather though, but kinda knew it was coming after such a mild winter. The uk doesn't cope well in bad weather.. major disruptions ahead..

I love the cold I really do.
But don't forget your eldery neighbours, please check on them and make sure they are ok.
All it takes is a quick stop by on your way to work and If you think they are struggling ring social services or their relatives.
I always make a massive pan of soup or stew and take some round next door.(she is such a lovely old dear )

reply to post by jrmcleod


Wow...UK getting pounded with snow while in BC, Canada we get pounded by rain. Better make sure you have enough heat to survive "the day after tomorrow"

Time to stock up on soup, beans, biscuits and luxury soft toilet rolls. Can't face snowy armageddon with scratchy bum paper!

I've been keeping a close eye on the weather as we were predicted to get a cold spell in the new year. Been mild so far but that can change quickly, as we have seen in the last 2 - 3 years. To be honest, I do like the cold weather, far more comfortable with it than the high temperatures. If it gets cold I can add another layer, whereas in the summer there are only so many clothes I can take off without getting arrested!

Also love it on my regular early morning nature walks. Best last year was a clear and crisp early morning, clear skies with thick snow and ice and -13C, whilst I stood feeding the Robins, which settled on me rather than the snow and frost covered surroundings.

Luckily, I can work from home if I wake up to heavy snowfall, which is a bonus.

Too bad I got a bit drunk on Friday that I lost my hat and gloves.

I expected snow to be forecast around this time, since Nov-Dec 2012 was wetter than an otter's tail, here in the UK...

Originally posted by Britguy
Time to stock up on soup, beans, biscuits and luxury soft toilet rolls. Can't face snowy armageddon with scratchy bum paper!

I've been keeping a close eye on the weather as we were predicted to get a cold spell in the new year. Been mild so far but that can change quickly, as we have seen in the last 2 - 3 years. To be honest, I do like the cold weather, far more comfortable with it than the high temperatures. If it gets cold I can add another layer, whereas in the summer there are only so many clothes I can take off without getting arrested!

Also love it on my regular early morning nature walks. Best last year was a clear and crisp early morning, clear skies with thick snow and ice and -13C, whilst I stood feeding the Robins, which settled on me rather than the snow and frost covered surroundings.

Luckily, I can work from home if I wake up to heavy snowfall, which is a bonus.

made me laugh with the toiletry comment, thanks mate.

do Robins normally over winter in your area? i know here, Pennsylvania USA, they normally head souht for the winter but the last ten years or so they have gradually began to stay farther north to the point that i see them in January and February now. crazy Mother earth changing her clothes again.

reply to post by LittleBlackEagle


I have always seen lots of Robins in the UK during winter and spring. At my last house, a pair of them were nesting every year in an old teapot I'd chucked on a compost heap. I loved watching them.

reply to post by LittleBlackEagle


Saw my first robin of the winter this morning, always good to see them...btw anyone know where they go during summer?

I shall be watching for snow now

reply to post by LittleBlackEagle


The Robins here are native and remain all year round. I take a large amount of food out with me on the weekend walks so they are always well fed. In fact, they are quite bold wee things and will often fly down and sit right in front of me chirping while I get the food out. I have even had them perched on my fingertips eating from my hand, which certainly keeps a grin on my face for the rest of the day.

Originally posted by boymonkey74
reply to post by LittleBlackEagle

 

Saw my first robin of the winter this morning, always good to see them...btw anyone know where they go during summer?

I can't remember where I heard it, but they're still about, they just change colour and lose the red breast.

reply to post by Mister_Bit


Ah thanks

I thought this weather was too good to be true!!

I predict this is how it will go.......

lorries not being to deliver food to supermarkets
panic buying by the masses
UK running out of grit
all the schools will be closed (means that parents will not be able to work, thus losing valuable money)
a huge case of 'heat or eat' (due to huge increase in gas prices)
eldery people will suffer and there will be some deaths

The UK has a history of not being prepared for this kind of weather and it generally goes into shut down, we have 2 weeks here to prepare and no-one knows about it??? This is crazy!!!

Tell anyone who will listen to save enough money for their gas bills and buy in some extra food while there is still plenty about.

Thanks for the heads up!

Originally posted by boymonkey74
reply to post by LittleBlackEagle

 

Saw my first robin of the winter this morning, always good to see them...btw anyone know where they go during summer?

usually we see them here by March but it has gotten to the point that i see them occasionally in January. as far as summer goes i only have info on North America, but as you can see they are all over the place.

All robins are not the same: The vast majority of robins do move south in the winter. However, some stick around — and move around — in northern locations.
Robins migrate more in response to food than to temperature. Fruit is the robin's winter food source. As the ground thaws in the spring, they switch to earthworms and insects. While the robins may arrive when temperatures reach 37 degrees, this is because their food becomes available not because the robins themselves need warm temperatures.
Robins wander in the winter: Temperatures get colder as winter progresses. Robins need more food when it's cold and more and more of the fruit gets eaten. Robins move here and there in response to diminishing food supplies and harsh weather. If all robins wintered at their breeding latitude, there wouldn't be enough fruit for them all. So robins tend to spread out in the winter in search of fruit. Most hang out where fruit is abundant, but some take the risk of staying farther north where smaller amounts of fruit remain.
Robins sing when they arrive on territory: Robins sing when they arrive on their breeding territories. Sometimes robins even sing in winter flocks, due to surging hormones as the breeding season approaches. However, in the majority of cases, robins really do wait to sing until they have reached their territory.

source www.learner.org...

reply to post by suzyspaghetti


I think you're spot on there. I personally tend to have a load of kit etc I keep in the loft in case the weather gets crazy. Although I'm not a prepper I just like to be able to get to the pub

reply to post by benintheuk


Maybe you should start home brewing so you always have an emergency stock

Good to know. I had a feeling it was about to change. It's was hail stoning on NYE then strangely warm the following night. Never a good sign.