Call it...The winner and electoral college.

reply to post by xuenchen


No way OR is going Red... Interesting choices though, I'm not sure IA and WI will be Red either, but we shall see.

I have been playing with the map on RCP and even if you give Romney Florida and a few other toss-up states, the map has Obama with the win.

To me this shows that the electoral college is crap. I'd be willing to bet that by 2016 the electoral college will be tossed and the popular vote will be what matters.

Originally posted by sheepslayer247
I have been playing with the map on RCP and even if you give Romney Florida and a few other toss-up states, the map has Obama with the win.

To me this shows that the electoral college is crap. I'd be willing to bet that by 2016 the electoral college will be tossed and the popular vote will be what matters.

The Electoral College isn't goign away any time soon.

Despite it's flaws, it is the best system that is available.

Originally posted by LadySkadi
reply to post by xuenchen

 

No way OR is going Red... Interesting choices though, I'm not sure IA and WI will be Red either, but we shall see.

edit on 5-11-2012 by LadySkadi because: (no reason given)

I would be surprised if Iowa goes to Romney. We had huge turnout and support for Ron Paul this season and many people within the Iowa GOP are salty about that.

Iowa will be the state that let's Obama win just because many Republicans vote Johnson or write-in candidates.

reply to post by sheepslayer247


FYI - The electoral college protects the representation of smaller states with smaller populations and has historically favored GOP. In order to scrap the electoral college we need a super-majority of the States vote to amend the constitution, and unless the smaller states vote to give themselves less say in Presidential elections...it aint never going to happen.

reply to post by Taiyed


I disagree. A straight popular vote is the best system. An electoral college only invalidates the value of the individual vote and can even causes some people to stay home...because they believe their vote doesn't count.

Doesn't is sound silly to say that it is the best system, when it's possible to win the popular vote of the people but lose the election because of some shady system?

The electoral college is outdated and does not respect the vote of the individual....so it must go.

reply to post by sheepslayer247


Romney would need more than Iowa to win.

reply to post by sheepslayer247


4 times in history where a President was elected who did not win (or lost) the popular vote

•John Quincy Adams who lost by 44,804 votes to Andrew Jackson in 1824 (Electoral College tie)
•Rutherford B. Hayes who lost by 264,292 votes to Samuel J. Tilden in 1876
•Benjamin Harrison who lost by 95,713 votes to Grover Cleveland in 1888
•George W. Bush who lost by 543,816 votes to Al Gore in the 2000 election.

According to Nate Silvers the odds the following will happen

Electoral College tie (269 electoral votes for each candidate) 0.3%
Recount (one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points) 7.9%
Obama wins popular vote 80.2%
Romney wins popular vote 19.8%
Obama wins popular vote but loses electoral college 0.7%
Romney wins popular vote but loses electoral college 6.9%

fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...

Originally posted by darkhorserider
reply to post by 11235813213455

 

In NM, Santa Fe is the only place that matters. The rest of the state won't sway the election one way or another.

How do you figure? Sante Fe is on the lower end population wise of cities in New Mexico......with Albuquerque coming in well over double its size......???

reply to post by ManBehindTheMask


Hey Mask - In the OP are a couple links to electoral maps that you can change up to get results...want to give a prediction a spin?

Originally posted by Indigo5
reply to post by ManBehindTheMask

 

Hey Mask - In the OP are a couple links to electoral maps that you can change up to get results...want to give a prediction a spin?

Yikes man........I dunno if I could even TRY to do that........my candidate isnt going to win either way, altho it would be a crazy surprise..........

But honestly I think Obama might just squeek by...........

By how much I have no idea

Karl Rove's prediction

Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president.

Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.

www.rove.com...

Originally posted by Indigo5
Karl Rove's prediction

Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president.

Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.

www.rove.com...

Interesting prediction there..........I really dont like that guy......but it doesnt mean he might not be accurate....

I know one thing...............

Its gonna be a MEDIA storm either way........I might have to turn off my all radio and TV for the next week lol

I'm thinking 270 Obama and 268 Romney. With Romney winning the popular vote mainly due to disruptions from Sandy. I WOULD LOVE TO SEE the chaos from an electoral tie, but think that is a longshot.

I'm of the opinion that we a screwed as a nation probably before the next election regardless of who wins tomorrow. I believe that wholeheartedly and even thought about voting for Obama because he deserves to own it when it all falls apart. If I'm wrong and we either improve economically or muddle along longer than I believe we can, well Obama deserves the credit for that too.

The only reason I've briefly considered voting for Romney is the Supreme Court issue, but then I thought well both the Liberals and the Conservatives on the court rule in favor of a more powerful state more often than not so that's not a good reason to vote for someone. I've said from the beginning that Romney is too Mormon and too Wall Street for me to vote for, and I still feel the same. Luckily I live in a deeply red state and don't feel any pressure to not vote either Libertarian or eeney-meeney-miney-moe amongst the third parties.

reply to post by Indigo5


I have looked at many (electoral maps) and so far on the majority of those maps...President Obama does lead...but by a narrow margin.

For me right now it is just too (neck-in-neck) to know who is really winning.

I am just wondering if this 2012 election will turn out to be a (3-ring-cirus) like the election was in 2000. We may not know for several days who the winner is.

I'm just saying.

romney =55 % votes

Obama = 43% votes

But Obama will get 280 electorial votes

Romney will nab 257

Obama will be re-elected

The end

Originally posted by caladonea

I am just wondering if this 2012 election will turn out to be a (3-ring-cirus) like the election was in 2000. We may not know for several days who the winner is.

I'm just saying.

Ughh...I know you might be right...but I hope and pray otherwise...a legal fight this time will make 2000 look tame..

An army of thousands of lawyers is quietly amassing in the key swing states ahead of next Tuesday's presidential election in preparation for the largest legal ground operation to be fought in any American election.

Hundreds of paid lawyers employed by the Obama and Romney campaigns, backed by a reserve force of thousands of volunteer attorneys who are jetting into the battleground states this weekend, will be monitoring polling stations on 6 November. Their job will be to prevent the rival side gaining an unfair advantage, and to be at hand to litigate should the vote be too close to call.

www.guardian.co.uk...

Click here for more information.

reply to post by Taiyed


I'll break it down ..... Obama 271 ... Romney 267

(BTW .. Karl Rove was just on TV and my map matched his exactly except for Ohio. He gave that to Romney and I have it going to Obama. Luv or hate Rove .. he's smart. )

Obama - WA, OR, CA, NV, NM, MN, WI, IL, MI, OH, PA, MD, DE, NJ, NY, CT, MA, VT, ME, HI

Romney - ID, UT, AZ, MT, WY, CO, ND, SD, NE, KS, Ok, TX, IA, MO, AR, LA, IN, KY, Tn, MS, AL, GA, FL, SC, NC, VA, WV NH and AK

Originally posted by Taiyed
I'm running through the scenarios that give those numbers, and are you giving Romney New Hampshire, Iowa, Virginia and Colorado?

Yes.

Originally posted by Eavel
reply to post by Indigo5

 

another crazy person, the polls are absolutely +11 on democratic side. Romney will win by a landslide, welcome to realism, all you idealist can jump off a peer. marshmellow farting butterflies only exist in dreams, life is real people.

I am curious...why are you so sure that Mitt Romney will win?