West Coast USA: Pay Attention, Cascadia May Be Ready to Rupture

Originally posted by zworld
The real wildcard is the southwest edge of the Gorda plate, along the Gorda escarpment. watch for activity there. In fact, Im going out on a limb and predicting a mag 6.5 or greater in that area in the next 7 days. Which is far from the magnitude of the big one.

Well it looks like Global CMT is agreeing with the USGS 6.0 magnitude, and that brings this all back up to worrisome. I don't believe the phase data supports 6.0, but looking at the waveform and amplitude it might. Once Global CMT makes the call though, it's pretty well over. This happened with the Japan 9.1. It was Global CMT who changed it to 9.1. I checked and got a direct response from the PTWC.

But once these kinds of shocks start hitting a stressed area in such a short period of time, it really is worrisome. They can be disruptive to otherwise stable joints.


Notice that there doesn't seem to be many aftershocks on the bigger strikes though. At least, not yet. To me this implies adjustment, rather than dangerous rupture, and I am hoping that's all it is. These could all just be long due adjustments to the big Japan quake- but on this side of the Pacific Plate. I am hoping, like so many of you, that this does not escalate. But a 7+ in the purple path, and I will scream a bloody murder warning.

Originally posted by zworld

Im getting closer but still not exact. Always one parameter wrong, the story of my life

If the Parmater is Wife or GF then its more so a Variable story of every married men j/k...

Keep up the good work.

I'm curious to know if anyone on here has any info into how the Axial Seamount volcano currently affects, or could affect the cascadia subduction zone. Is it relieving pressure from the zone, or increasing pressure? Was the April 2011 eruption cascadia's "answer" to Japan earthquakes? Or, is the current activity cascadia's "answer" to the eruption? Or did the eruption have absolutely nothing to do with any of it?

This pattern is interesting. Absolutely fascinating. I think it gives a clear view into plate dynamics.

It goes in a linear time pattern from left to right, and except for the small guy, intensity as well. Note the times. The second one to go is the little one, 7 seconds after the first. Then the third goes off 14 minutes after that, and the last one 12 minutes after that.

Im seeing this pattern alot when going back over the video of 2011 EQs. domino effect with building intensity.

This series is straddling the Gorda ridge running into the JDF. The 5.9 10 days later is on the southern edge of the JDF where it hits the deformation area that the Gorda ridge dissects.

And here is where it gets really interesting. The way the first series curves in conjunction with the edge of the Gorda plate suggests that the Gorda plate caused it with a slip in its rotational movement. And it started to accelerate until it hit another lock point with the N American plate. Since Gorda and JDF are from the same plate, the movement of one affects the other. Gorda's slip pulled on that section of the JDF that then slipped in the 5.9.



TA, or anyone, How does one add up magnitudes. I want to figure if the Feb 4 EQ series released the equivalent of 5.9, the later big EQ.

Originally posted by tacomagirl
I'm curious to know if anyone on here has any info into how the Axial Seamount volcano currently affects, or could affect the cascadia subduction zone. Is it relieving pressure from the zone, or increasing pressure? Was the April 2011 eruption cascadia's "answer" to Japan earthquakes? Or, is the current activity cascadia's "answer" to the eruption? Or did the eruption have absolutely nothing to do with any of it?

Tacomagirl, I dont have recent data, but just like the undersea volcano along the Gorda escarpment that erupted the year before Axial, these to me indicate that the back edges of the plates are being pushed away from the Pacific plate. But this could be a long term normal process that we only recently became aware of.

But it certainly is adding something to the overall equation. The quakes we are having now however are not releasing pressure IMO because they seem to be on either of the locked zone. Push me pull me affect.

I have to say that this is one of the more interesting threads that I've discovered that is keeping my attention. I fully believe that we are still in the infantile stage of understanding how the 'plates' work and/or shift (and why they do so). And of course my living in the West Coast in California about 40 miles from the San Andreas fault doesn't exactly incite a sense of calm and security (LOL).

Anyway.. great thread and will keep it bookmarked for the updates and posts as they roll in. Maybe we can have you on the ATSLive Radio program sometime soon for further discussions..


Johnny

Originally posted by JohnnyAnonymous
Maybe we can have you on the ATSLive Radio program sometime soon for further discussions..

Johnny

Yeah sure. I'll be happy to jump up there and explain to PuterMan how I am arguing both sides of the debate hard, with facts. But that is simply just too much for some people to handle, apparently.

The very first thing I said to open this thread was?

IT PROBABLY ISN'T.

And then I jump the line and say "oh yeah?" and say why it might. But then I get conservative again and explain that it could be just adjustments rather than rupture. And then I point out the frequency in such a short period of time is abnormal. Back and forth, push me pull me.

I mean yeah, I am all over the place on this, and I'll be the first to admit it. I am willing to be wrong though in exchange for a potential warning should the worse come to pass. And everyone learn more about Cascadia in the process. And I don't regret a single thing I have said in this thread.

You want me on the show? I'm there. ETA: Would be fun to have zworld and Olivine on there too. (I know better than to ask PM or wc- been there, done that).

Magnitude
3.7
Date-Time
Thursday, February 16, 2012 at 02:09:14 UTC
Wednesday, February 15, 2012 at 06:09:14 PM at epicenter
Location
38.075°N, 122.233°W
Depth
9.3 km (5.8 miles)
Region
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIFORNIA
Distances
3 km (2 miles) NNW (341°) from Crockett, CA
4 km (3 miles) S (176°) from Vallejo, CA
5 km (3 miles) NNE (28°) from Rodeo, CA
31 km (19 miles) N (359°) from Oakland, CA
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 0.2 km (0.1 miles); depth +/- 0.5 km (0.3 miles)
Parameters
Nph= 88, Dmin=2 km, Rmss=0.26 sec, Gp= 29°,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=3
Source
California Integrated Seismic Net:
USGS Caltech CGS UCB UCSD UNR
Event ID
nc71736351

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Moderate but these are getting closer and closer to me

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Um I know what the HAARP magnetometer does. I thought we were talking about spectrograms from PNSN for the tremors. NOT the same thing at all.

The magnetometer has to up the signal that much because the magnetism is about the same as a fridge magnet, but we are talking about magnetic flux here not CMEs and Solar Wind..

Going back to the spectrograms the spikes you see are indeed from solar sources as best I can tell.



It is of course great news to know that Solar emissions are so weak that they could not possibly affect power grids and satellites. I am greatly relieved by that.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


It has been there done that before TA.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

You want me on the show? I'm there. ETA: Would be fun to have zworld and Olivine on there too. (I know better than to ask PM or wc- been there, done that).

I posted this in Quake Watch as well.

Sorry to interrupt the arguing but there was just a 2.5 9 miles from Lincoln City Oregon . . . I cannot figure out how to post the image of the details . . . here is a link though:earthquake.usgs.gov...

I am sure that this is probably nothing but figured it was of interest to some here.

reply to post by nonnez


Thanks for that. I think the depth, at 30km is interesting. According to the PNSN tremor page, the estimated plate interface at that location is close to 20km. Hmmm..

Did I miss something? Wierd vibes on the board today. Whatever.



One small quake that interesst me today:

MAP 2.5 2012/02/16 00:07:41 45.010 -124.194 30.3 15 km ( 9 mi) WNW of Lincoln City, OR

source

No deep tremors again

Originally posted by dragynfly

Zworld, I'm glad to know you are in my neighborhood. I'm in Arcata.

Hi dragonfly. Moving back up to Trinidad for awhile myself. If your in the Bottoms map the quickest route to high ground though you probably did long ago if your on this thread

That 5.6 outside weitcpec was fun !!!

Is there such a thing as earthquake chasers. Sometimes I think that's why Im still in the thick of it. Quakes that dont destroy alot of stuff are a thrilling experience. And actually the destructive ones are too until they cause pain.

I guess if your gonna be a storm chaser Tornado Alley is where you want to live. Earthquake chasers prefer the MTJ.

Add a new one tonight by Vancouver island 4.7 at 10:37 pm pacific time.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

reply to post by Julie Washington


Just saw that as well on usgs. Not cool. ( i live on northern vancouver island). Take care everyone.

I'm definitely interested on what others have to say about this development.

Some more tectonic data for recent quakes. The first map shows how the Pacific plate via the san Andreas is sliding past the n American, then hitting the Gorda and LOGJAM!! Actually quake jam.
Note how the smaller black dot quakes do a rotational fan from the MTJ.



And this shows the recent series with the geology underneath.

Forgot to add that the first mapping above is for the last 100 years if I remember correctly. Long time anyway.

Yeah well, before everyone gets all warm and fuzzy thinking PuterMan has saved the day, what he didn't tell you is where these 7+ quakes happened:



Out at sea on the back of the JDF plate. Questionable whether they were even felt much on land, so no wonder they came and went without much fanfare.



Those are not so much my concern, and those are not the ones to be looking out for as precursors, if there can be such a thing.

See, there is no accounting at all or explanation, for the LOCATION of the quakes at both ends of the zone this time, and on the upper lip of the subduction during this specific time of unrest, as I have already pointed out with my diagrams. He is just writing that off. Well I am not. There is a difference here.

And further, another 2.5 just happened in a bad spot on the upper lip of the subduction line too now:
neic.usgs.gov...

And if that wasn't in the purple path, it was damn close to it.

Add that to this:


And something is stirring on the upper lip of subduction that doesn't look good. In my opinion. These are the differences mostly from previous activity in the past, within this short time period.

What I am looking for specifically at this point is to watch out for more quakes in the purple path as indicators.

Three 7+'s and an 8.1 could hit right in the purple path, and PM would still point to his snotty lists and frown.

Right. Well the scientists tried that in Chile in 1960, and it didn't exactly work out too well.

Just go right ahead people and ignore the warning signs completely. According to PM, these are not warning signs whatsoever and everything is just peachy.

Of course I already covered that with the very first statement of this thread. I don't have to have agreement from you PuterMan to form my own opinions, and I am not no company man. So get off it.

Another small one off Lincoln City, OR 2.1 mag.

earthquake.usgs.gov...