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Quake Watch 2012
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reply to post by berkeleygal
Here's my total guess about Yellowstone's hotspot. I've read a few things a couple of years back but not recently. I think the hotspot is bascially where it was not long ago along the same direction as the old caldera trail. I think what's happening in the northwest of the park is the magma recharge. In 2004 there was an injection of new magma. Where'd it come from? I think the northwest. That's if it's not a traditional hotspot and has more to do with the plate.
On Mexico. I wish I had been paying attention to Mexico's whether earlier. With the La Nina I can make some guesses, oh I'm so lazy. Regardless of the past. Recently, the region around Popocatceptl has been stormy. Constant rainstorms. It will be interesting to see if this causes a return to some big quakes. There may indeed be a real danger of a mudslide on the mountain or worse. I know Mexico is sterotyped as desert. But all the rain they're getting at the moment seems above normal.
I agree about barometric changes causing quakes. The pressure change would produce waves. Shifting loads. etc
Also low pressure systems come with lots of electricty which strikes the ground. With all the rig drill natural gas... they'd better make sure they've got safe ground wires on their operations. With a big strike of light, they would become a big torch.
Let's say they let some of that gassy water seep nearby where it's collecting all low and quiet like close to the ground. Woosh.
That's problably how that how in Arkansas exploded.
yup
Here's my total guess about Yellowstone's hotspot. I've read a few things a couple of years back but not recently. I think the hotspot is bascially where it was not long ago along the same direction as the old caldera trail. I think what's happening in the northwest of the park is the magma recharge. In 2004 there was an injection of new magma. Where'd it come from? I think the northwest. That's if it's not a traditional hotspot and has more to do with the plate.
On Mexico. I wish I had been paying attention to Mexico's whether earlier. With the La Nina I can make some guesses, oh I'm so lazy. Regardless of the past. Recently, the region around Popocatceptl has been stormy. Constant rainstorms. It will be interesting to see if this causes a return to some big quakes. There may indeed be a real danger of a mudslide on the mountain or worse. I know Mexico is sterotyped as desert. But all the rain they're getting at the moment seems above normal.
I agree about barometric changes causing quakes. The pressure change would produce waves. Shifting loads. etc
Also low pressure systems come with lots of electricty which strikes the ground. With all the rig drill natural gas... they'd better make sure they've got safe ground wires on their operations. With a big strike of light, they would become a big torch.
Let's say they let some of that gassy water seep nearby where it's collecting all low and quiet like close to the ground. Woosh.
That's problably how that how in Arkansas exploded.
yup
edit on 11-5-2012 by ericblair4891 because: (no reason given)
reply to post by lurksoften
just copy and paste the address of the page from your browser to the bottom of the text in your post if you like, thats the easiest way, makes its own link automatically.
Makes it easier for readers to quickly check to see if there have been any changes to the details since you posted it, when they read your post later.
USGS in particular have a habit of changing the magnitude ( you probably already know that )
You might find this topic helpful A Guide to BBCode on ATS
just copy and paste the address of the page from your browser to the bottom of the text in your post if you like, thats the easiest way, makes its own link automatically.
Makes it easier for readers to quickly check to see if there have been any changes to the details since you posted it, when they read your post later.
USGS in particular have a habit of changing the magnitude ( you probably already know that )
You might find this topic helpful A Guide to BBCode on ATS
edit on 11-5-2012 by
muzzy because: (no reason given)
reply to post by muzzy
Basically Geofon nailed it then.
I had not checked revisions on LDEO
That Easter Island 6.0 dropped to 5.9
Basically Geofon nailed it then.
I had not checked revisions on LDEO
Popo is erupting right now. Check it out. Hard to get on webcam
I got couple screen shots but i don't know how to post here hahahaha ahahhheehehe
You guys got to catch the eruption on the webcam. I started thread. If you can capture pictures of it post it on here.
www.abovetopsecret.com...
I got couple screen shots but i don't know how to post here hahahaha ahahhheehehe
You guys got to catch the eruption on the webcam. I started thread. If you can capture pictures of it post it on here.
www.abovetopsecret.com...
edit on 11-5-2012 by ericblair4891 because: (no reason given)
Originally posted by ericblair4891
Here's a link for Puterman. I know it will make him mental. Puterman, you best ignore it or you risk having a stroke. Don't say you weren't warned and I won't comment on this topic further.
planetsave.com...
From that link.
"The melting of ice sheets and changes in sea level served as triggers to some of the world’s largest earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, according to British geologist Bill McGuire.
The best evidence of climatic influence on geology is from around 12,000 years ago, the end of the last ice age. Recent studies of volcanic deposits, have shown that this period of rapid change, as the ice sheets retreated, coincided with an outburst in geological activity.
Volcanic eruptions increased about 50 fold after the ice sheet retreated, and took around 1,500 years to return to the previous level."
This is just stupid science and/or stupid reporting.
When my dog's fur falls out the leaves on the trees start to fall so my dog causes all the leaves to fall.
We must look at cause and effect. My Alaskan Malamute doesn't cause the leaves to fall. Look for something else. Oh, wait, it may be the cold weather that causes both.
The melting of ice sheets and changes in sea level may be caused by an increase in the output of the Sun! This could also cause an increase in magma temperature causing magma to expand and this expansion may cause earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
Science in all fields is a disgrace. Apart from being bought and paid for they don't seem to give a damn how things are reported. It would not be hard for a few legal cases to set the record straight. After all the scientists are being misrepresented and surely their reputations are on the line. They don't care because big business does not care and that is who science works for. It is disgusting!
I have had a gut full. Science is down the toilet and the media are the enema!
P
Source: Planetsave (s.tt...)
edit on 11-5-2012 by pheonix358 because: (no reason given)
edit on 11-5-2012 by
pheonix358 because: (no reason given)
Originally posted by SpaceJockey1
Muzzy! You finally got your 5+ for NZ, but in the South Island rather than the North>
Reference Number: 3704567
NZST: Sat, May 12 2012 10:07 am
Magnitude: 5.5
Depth: 12 km
Details: 40 km west of Tuatapere
SOURCE
Woohoo, and in a non populated area, thats a relief.
I'll take the Geonet location, beside the Wairaurahiri River.
USGS have it offshore in Te Waewae Bay, they may be right but have a history of being 50km out when it comes to NZ estimates.
What we didn't need was for that to have been in Christchurch, they had a 3.9 today which would have upset a few people, who thought things were settling down.
reply to post by pheonix358
I could not have ranted better myself! Well said.
That web site/article is of the 'little squares of paper' variety. Aside from the fact that the sea level increase is ~4mm per year, or has been, which means that in 100 years it will be ~400mm or 2 ft, at current rates, as you so rightly point out this is all driven by the Sun. The Sun influences the climate, melts the ice packs or causes the freezing of them and yes earthquakes do occur because of that, but it has nothing to do with CO2 which is a result not a cause.
I don't want to turn this thread into a debate about global warming climate change catastrophe (it is not a catastrophe) but I will go as far as to say that yes some of the effects of the changing climate do/may trigger earthquakes but we are not going to see a rash of major earthquakes and fiery volcanoes just because the global temperature has risen by 0.3°C in the last 150 years (and would probably have done so without any dubious influence from mankind). Climate is not the prime cause.
Yes I agree that science is down the pan, polluted by the media and driven (naturally) by a desire for money. Unfortunately because of the materialistic world we live in as the result of the machinations of a certain group of greedy unscrupulous people, existence depends solely upon income. It is almost impossible in the Western world to exist without it.
I could not have ranted better myself! Well said.
That web site/article is of the 'little squares of paper' variety. Aside from the fact that the sea level increase is ~4mm per year, or has been, which means that in 100 years it will be ~400mm or 2 ft, at current rates, as you so rightly point out this is all driven by the Sun. The Sun influences the climate, melts the ice packs or causes the freezing of them and yes earthquakes do occur because of that, but it has nothing to do with CO2 which is a result not a cause.
I don't want to turn this thread into a debate about global warming climate change catastrophe (it is not a catastrophe) but I will go as far as to say that yes some of the effects of the changing climate do/may trigger earthquakes but we are not going to see a rash of major earthquakes and fiery volcanoes just because the global temperature has risen by 0.3°C in the last 150 years (and would probably have done so without any dubious influence from mankind). Climate is not the prime cause.
Yes I agree that science is down the pan, polluted by the media and driven (naturally) by a desire for money. Unfortunately because of the materialistic world we live in as the result of the machinations of a certain group of greedy unscrupulous people, existence depends solely upon income. It is almost impossible in the Western world to exist without it.
After due consideration I must acknowledge that all earthquakes on this planet are caused my my Alaskan Malamute named 'Shadow'.
The science that brings me to this conclusion is as valid as any other science we see today.
"Insert pic here" (I wonder how I insert pic, could not seem to figure it out!)
In medicine you have the First rule "First do no harm"
In science you have "Nothing to see here"
It disgusts me! DaVinci would turn in his grave, probably has!
P
The science that brings me to this conclusion is as valid as any other science we see today.
"Insert pic here" (I wonder how I insert pic, could not seem to figure it out!)
In medicine you have the First rule "First do no harm"
In science you have "Nothing to see here"
It disgusts me! DaVinci would turn in his grave, probably has!
P
reply to post by muzzy
Regarding the Christchurch quake today, I was with a bunch of people in Linwood and we felt it quite strongly!
We can certainly do without these reminders that we may not be out of the woods yet.
I'll certainly be concerned with my prediction period of 14-16 to possibly the 20th of May coming up.
Gotta say that 30 days since the last 7+ mag quakes seems rather unusual, given the trend of around 1.5 a month, no?
I swear that I can almost SMELL that big one brewing!
Regarding the Christchurch quake today, I was with a bunch of people in Linwood and we felt it quite strongly!
We can certainly do without these reminders that we may not be out of the woods yet.
I'll certainly be concerned with my prediction period of 14-16 to possibly the 20th of May coming up.
Gotta say that 30 days since the last 7+ mag quakes seems rather unusual, given the trend of around 1.5 a month, no?
I swear that I can almost SMELL that big one brewing!
reply to post by SpaceJockey1
Watch it. The tar is bubbling and I have been chasing chickens round the field all morning. Most of them are bare now.
We have had 5 Mag 7-7.9 and 2 Mag 8+, one of which was a mag 7.8 on LDEO, so for mag 7 the average is one a month, or actually one every 26.6 days. That would give 14 for the year which is as far as I am concerned 2 below what I am expecting and 6 below current trends so yes, one is round the corner but there is no excuse for you encouraging it to come out.
Now I am going to tempt fate: Quiet isn't it?
Gotta say that 30 days since the last 7+ mag quakes seems rather unusual, given the trend of around 1.5 a month, no?
I swear that I can almost SMELL that big one brewing!
Watch it. The tar is bubbling and I have been chasing chickens round the field all morning. Most of them are bare now.
We have had 5 Mag 7-7.9 and 2 Mag 8+, one of which was a mag 7.8 on LDEO, so for mag 7 the average is one a month, or actually one every 26.6 days. That would give 14 for the year which is as far as I am concerned 2 below what I am expecting and 6 below current trends so yes, one is round the corner but there is no excuse for you encouraging it to come out.
Now I am going to tempt fate: Quiet isn't it?
well I have to say,. my greatest focus is going to be on Japan,.
After reading that latest assessment of the Fukushima cooling pool #4
Im hoping we dont have anything above a 7 in that area,..But thats like hoping for
a less rain in Seattle Wa.
After reading that latest assessment of the Fukushima cooling pool #4
Im hoping we dont have anything above a 7 in that area,..But thats like hoping for
a less rain in Seattle Wa.
280km SSW of `Ohonua, Tonga
2012-05-12 14:34:42 UTC
Parameter Value Uncertainty
Magnitude 4.8 mb ± 0.12
Location 23.752°S, 175.771°W ± 28.7 km
Depth 10.0 km ± 2.9 km
Number of Stations Used 27
Number of Phases Used 27
Minimum Distance 1860.1 km (16.710°)
Travel Time Residual 1.05 sec
Azimuthal Gap 132°
Version 7
Review Status REVIEWED
Event ID usb0009nkm
earthquake.usgs.gov...
Hadn't noticed that heading before
Parameter Value Uncertainty
I think its more than ± 0.12 uncertainty on the magnitude
more like ± 0.6
LDEO were pretty quick to get that one up
2012 5 12 14 34 48.0 -23.00 -175.00 33.0 [color=LawnGreen] 5.4 TONGA ISLANDS REGION
SNZO says so too
its the second big trace, the first one is the Southland, NZ "5.483", but I think that may be downgraded by Geonet later, they had 14 goes at it, and ended up with 5.1 on Geonet Rapid . It doesn't look like a 5.5 on the SNZO graph either.
I'm liking LDEO , they don't do all the quakes but they do find a lot that the others don't post
2012 5 12 4 32 40.0 -36.25 -103.25 33.0 5.0 SOUTHEAST OF EASTER ISLAND
I don't think the Antarctic Plate is too happy right now, thats about 10 quakes in the Balleny Is, Pacific Antarctic and SE of Easter Island areas this week in the 4.8 to 5.2 magnitude range, and USGS has shown none of them
edit on 12-5-2012 by muzzy because: (no reason given)
reply to post by lurksoften
Well its sure not because of lack of funding, the 2013 budget request for the U.S. Geological Survey is $1.1 billion, $34.5 million above the 2012 enacted level.
LDEO do it for $100,000 a year.
Imagine what LDEO could do if the USGovt threw a couple of million their way
USGS need to spend more $ on the nuts and bolts (hardware)
In the Analysis by Activity report for 2011 (Word doc) (2102 not available)
I'm not sure where monitoring earthquakes fit in, it might be in
Geographical Research, Investigations & Remote Sensing
2010 = $145,590,000,
2011=$153,422,000
$153,422,000 and they still can't find 10 quakes in the Southern Ocean that LDEO can for $100,000
There are going to be some Budget cuts at USGS this year, going by this doc ( pdf) www.usgs.gov...
Instead of shifting a huge chunk of the budget to Climate Change and Water Analysis why not perhaps transfer 10% of that to the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University and see what they can do with it.
Well its sure not because of lack of funding, the 2013 budget request for the U.S. Geological Survey is $1.1 billion, $34.5 million above the 2012 enacted level.
LDEO do it for $100,000 a year.
Imagine what LDEO could do if the USGovt threw a couple of million their way
USGS need to spend more $ on the nuts and bolts (hardware)
In the Analysis by Activity report for 2011 (Word doc) (2102 not available)
I'm not sure where monitoring earthquakes fit in, it might be in
Geographical Research, Investigations & Remote Sensing
2010 = $145,590,000,
2011=$153,422,000
$153,422,000 and they still can't find 10 quakes in the Southern Ocean that LDEO can for $100,000
There are going to be some Budget cuts at USGS this year, going by this doc ( pdf) www.usgs.gov...
Instead of shifting a huge chunk of the budget to Climate Change and Water Analysis why not perhaps transfer 10% of that to the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University and see what they can do with it.
edit on 12-5-2012 by muzzy because: (no reason given)
reply to post by lurksoften
LDEO only shows Mw values so it is most likely because they cannot get enough information to calculate that.
That is my guess.
LDEO only shows Mw values so it is most likely because they cannot get enough information to calculate that.
That is my guess.
reply to post by PuterMan
this may have already been answered but what do you think of that 188 day earthquake/axis shift cycle?
according to what I read the person who initially proposed it forgot to calculate for the leap year which would have put the last one at march 20-21 which means we should be due around september 24-25 if it holds up as it did in march
this may have already been answered but what do you think of that 188 day earthquake/axis shift cycle?
according to what I read the person who initially proposed it forgot to calculate for the leap year which would have put the last one at march 20-21 which means we should be due around september 24-25 if it holds up as it did in march
reply to post by AzraelBane
We have looked at it here in the thread and I have also looked at it on my blog. I believe we have all agreed that there is insufficient evidence for the theory and that the premise upon which it is based is flawed.
The discussion here was quite a few pages back so it might be quicker for you to take a look at my findings.
We have looked at it here in the thread and I have also looked at it on my blog. I believe we have all agreed that there is insufficient evidence for the theory and that the premise upon which it is based is flawed.
The discussion here was quite a few pages back so it might be quicker for you to take a look at my findings.