World on verge of ‘mini ice age’ ? Geophysicist rejects global warming theory

Are we heading for a new mini ice age?
If we believe that most of our climate is driven by our star, the sun and it's activity, we would say yes.

At first i want to start with a link to an article i read from Víctor Manuel Velasco, a theoretical physicist and researcher at the Institute of Geophysics of the National Autonomous University of Mexico. Velasco is one of many scientists who question the conclusions of the United Nation’s IPCC, a political body which has been the primary force behind the promotion of the catastrophic global warming hypothesis.

He says that our recent winter conditions are similar to those of the little ice age, in particular the Maunder Minimum. In that period astronomers observed only about 50 sunspots.[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/eacd61a89911.png[/atsimg]
This period lasted about 70 years so that means +-6 solar cycles.
If we compare that to other cycles.
Maximum monthly smoothed sunspot number
An average of the last 10 solar cycles = 130 sunspots
An average of the last 20 solar cycles = 115 sunspots
An average from solar cycle 1-23 = 114 sunspots
If we count 6 years SC1-SC6 we get a total of +-600 sunspots.
I will come back later on this when continue on solar activity.

Velasco also said that the position of earth in relation to the rest of the solar system, is similar then during this period of the little ice age.

We are talking about the period between 1645 and 1715, which is known as the Maunder Minimum, a period in which the sunspots practically disappeared from the surface of the sun, and in which our planet occupied a position similar to which it has today, with respect to the center of gravity of our solar system.”

To verify what he says on our position ' with respect to the center of gravity of the solar system' i don't have the equipment or sources. But i guess he has, otherwise he wouldn't mention it, right?

The theory of Al Gore that global warming is man-made, has been many times overthrown by scientists. The input of the data was wrong. Somehow he changed the data from the medieval warm period.

The hockey-stick graph by Al Gore
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/36353bd7494d.gif[/atsimg]

Graph with the restored data
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/ac4ba6788490.jpg[/atsimg]

What if we go back in time and see how the data looks now?
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/80d62f67d53b.jpg[/atsimg]

But to see the real difference we have to go back to the last ice age
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/09c714bb9f60.jpg[/atsimg]

What about co2 emissions in the atmosphere, are they at a maximum?
This graph doesn't show much difference than previous data.
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/e6ffea982285.png[/atsimg]

This excludes that we are not living in a time of abnormal heat or facing any kind of 'global warming' caused by co2 emissions from our cars and industries.
Although his 'computer models' proves we are in for a 'global warming period', the input data is coming from people and if these data are wrong, so will the models be.

Back to Velasco

Velasco dismissed computer models that are used to predict global warming as a result of man-made carbon dioxide emissions, noting that “today we are experiencing a scientific revolution in which on one side there are are supercomputers and on the other, human intelligence. Only human beings create knowledge and science, and those who bet on computers are making an erroneous diagnosis.”

“It will be nature that demonstrates which theory is the correct one. However, the Earth is getting colder,” he added.

Those are also my beliefs. Whatever our modern civilization does we can't influence or control global climate, yet.

To go back to solar activity data.
In June 2011 there was an announcement from the NSO(National Solar Observatory)
Solar activity may be in for a long period of low activity.
The switch between solar cycles always happens at a minimum.
The transition between cycle 24(the one the sun is in now) and 25 may be a time of long minimum and low activity.

"We expected to see the start of the zonal flow for Cycle 25 by now, but we see no sign of it," Hill said. "The flow for Cycle 25 should have appeared in 2008 or 2009. This leads us to believe that the next cycle will be very much delayed, with a minimum longer than the one we just went through." Hill estimated that the start of Cycle 25 could be delayed to 2021 or 2022 and will be very weak, if it even happens at all.

You could say there is a possibility that the sun skips SC25.

So where is the solar cycle 24 now according to previous cycles?
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/17a78d365567.jpg[/atsimg]
So if solar maximum will peak in 2012, we have some catching up to do.

I also want to mention that the strength of the magnetic field of the previous cycles is decreasing as shown in the graph.

Every 11 years he sun changes polarity or the poles flip caused by the transport of meridional flows on the sun’s surface that carry magnetic fields from mid-latitude sunspots to the sun’s poles.
These flows transport south-pointing magnetic flux to the north magnetic pole, and north-pointing flux to the south magnetic pole.
The field weakens as oppositely-directed flux accumulates at the sun’s poles until, at the height of solar maximum, the magnetic poles change polarity and begin to grow in a new direction.

Here i want to add the unusual log minimum of cycle 23 that was indirectly caused by a weak polar magnetic field and a large number of days without sunspots(820days, the cycle lasted 12.6 years) The direct cause was by meridional plasma flow variations as mentioned above.

What other data do we have on ice ages?
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/b20c94050349.png[/atsimg]
Isn't this graph showing we are at a temperature maxima and if we believe those cycles we are heading for an ice age?

So what will happen in the coming years?
Wait and see, but if you look at these recent announcements of a solar dip and you believe the sun drives global climate change, you better get your winter-jacket out.

List of Solar cycles
Solar Terrestrial Activity Report
Maunder Minimum
Eminent geophysicist rejects global warming theory, says world on verge of ‘mini ice age’
Hockey stick?What hockey stick?
Sun's Fading Spots Signal Big Drop in Solar Activity
Ice Age Temperature

I do a lot of observation of the solar cycle, hurricane activity, and other Earth patterns such as droughts, floods, and other events. I believe we are entering a period of dramatic climatic change. We are entering a great cooling period.

The Sun heats the earth by solar flares, CME's etc. They continually bounce the atmosphere causing it to warm. The more it happens that warmer it gets. Now that Sunspot activity is very low and entering a period of no activity, there is nothing to cause the warming.

Hurricanes create a vortex where warm moist air from the ocean surface evacuates into the Stratosphere. The is a normal Earth event except that once the heat has been sucked away, only the cool air is left. Hurricanes will continue and further cool the planet.

Jet stream patterns are also changing due to ocean cooling. The oceans are the final recipients of direct solar radiation, Low energy output means cooler oceans, and cooler oceans mean jet stream pattern changes.

In the end we are going into a great cooling we call an ice age.


BTW, at the local level I look to nature. Here, the leave have prematurely shed from the trees without even turning color. They just turned brown and dropped off. Also the bees and wasps are building their nests in the trees and in the top corners of my roof on the second floor, apx 30 ft. This means cold temperatures and an abundance of snow.

Hey nice find here, ive seen a few things on this but didnt really pay much attention to it at the time, but its has been following that warm curve hasnt it

I reject his rejection. all data I have seen shows the earths temps rising. most gore haters and deniers even agree, and the only debate is if it is caused by human activity

so if the earth is getting warmer, yet the suns activity is getting weaker, I'd have to say this would indicate it is worse that I thought, and when the sun's activity picks up, I'm moving to south dakota

reply to post by intergalactic fire


Good post. Glad to see some of this brought together in one thread. I'll add a couple of links -

Text from emails obtained through FOIA as published in the Wall Street Journal.

From: Phil Jones

To: "Michael E. Mann"

Subject: IPCC & FOI

Date: Thu May 29 11:04:11 2008

Mike,

Can you delete any emails you may have....

_____________________

...And don't leave stuff lying around on ftp sites - you never know who is trawling them. The two MMs have been after the CRU station data for years. If they ever hear there is a Freedom of Information Act now in the UK, I think I'll delete the file rather than send to anyone....

_____________________

...The FOI line we're all using is this. IPCC is exempt from any countries FOI—the skeptics have been told this. Even though we (MOHC, CRU/UEA) possibly hold relevant info the IPCC is not part our remit (mission statement, aims etc) therefore we don't have an obligation to pass it on.....

Another from the WSJ -

Some of those mentioned in the emails have responded to our requests for comment by saying they must first chat with their lawyers. Others have offered legal threats and personal invective. Still others have said nothing at all. Those who have responded have insisted that the emails reveal nothing more than trivial data discrepancies and procedural debates.

Yet all of these nonresponses manage to underscore what may be the most revealing truth: That these scientists feel the public doesn't have a right to know the basis for their climate-change predictions, even as their governments prepare staggeringly expensive legislation in response to them.

People who have nothing to hide do not try and work around FOI requests, do they? Conspiracy you betcha!

The only thing we need to know is that the earth heats up and cools down all the time, it has done for thousands of years of human history:

The Romans growing grapes on the English/Scottish border (Hadrian's Wall)
The Vikings crossing over from Norway to other places such as Shetland/Orkney/Iceland/Greenland/Canada with 'ease' in boats that wouldn't perhaps withstand todays seas.

I do not care, personally if the earth is warming up or cooling, all i know is that it is natural and has happened many times in tens of thousands of years

Another addition -

From Technology Review published by MIT

Canadian scientists Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick have uncovered a fundamental mathematical flaw in the computer program that was used to produce the hockey stick.

From Newsmax

NASA has released a new study that may prove global-warming alarmists have been wrong all along.

Data from NASA's Terra satellite covering the period 2000 through 2011 shows that when the earth's climate heats up, the atmosphere appears to be better able to channel the heat to outer space.

The satellite data call into question the computer models favored by global warming believers and may put to rest controversy over the discrepancy between the computer models and actual meteorological readings.

Read more on Newsmax.com: NASA Study: Global Warming Alarmists Wrong
Important: Do You Support Pres. Obama's Re-Election? Vote Here Now!

reply to post by intergalactic fire


Excellently well presented and informative post! The information provided certainly gives much food for thought and even more for debate.

With the UK weather forecast being exceptionaly bleak this winter, your presentation also ties in very nicely here......

UK Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012 My UK long range winter weather forecast in Layman's terms and the reasoning behind my basis of a severe winter weather warning for 2011-2012. Low Solar Activity Periods of low solar activity at present and what we have seen in recent years influence the Earth's atmosphere by allowing the stratosphere to cool. This has a somewhat more profound effect over Northern Europe and the UK in terms of colder and snowier winters, due to jet stream patterns that block warm air from reaching us and create more moisture. Although sunspot activity has increased somewhat this year and there has been an increase in solar flare activity, the activity is minuscule in comparison to what it should be like during a solar maximum and in terms of frequency. Periods of low solar activity such as this have future repercussions of low solar activity in future cycles and produce extra cloud cover that reflects sunlight with a cooling influence on Earth. The lack of major sunspots and solar flares clearly indicate a slower conveyor belt within the sun. We are now in a very weak solar maximum and my observations indicate that the next solar cycle will also be weak.

This is a long range forecast by James Madden.

He also adds further influences to the equation so to speak by monitoring Volcanic activity and other influences such as the gulf stream, leading to his conclusion...

Conclusion I therefore expect the 2011-2012 winter to follow a similar pattern in terms of how November and December was in 2010 for the vast majority of this winter. It will be exceptionally cold and snowy with well below average temperatures. I fully expect to see records broken with the highlands of Scotland being once again particularly hard hit. It is therefore vital to start preparing

The full pdf can be viewed here

www.exactaweather.com...

Whilst this forecast is for the UK, I am sure North America & Canada will also experience a hard winter even though at the time of writing I have not yet viewed any forcasts for those regions.

I think you may well be onto something here and a very well deserved star and flag for you.

Whilst this forecast is for the UK, I am sure North America & Canada will also experience a hard winter even though at the time of writing I have not yet viewed any forcasts for those regions.

I've been listening to the farmers around here, and they've been talking about expecting the worst winter in decades. Tonight we have a frost warning, -2 celcius overnight expected temperature.

reply to post by syrinx high priest


Thats ok.
Everyone has their opinion, even scientists.

That the earth is warming,well personally i've experienced the opposite from where i live(N-Europe and S-Europe).
5 years now our winters started sooner and lasting longer than the previous year. Every year more snow for longer periods, lower minimum temperatures, shorter warm periods( though with higher max temperatures ) so both extremes are being touched.
I don't say we are in a cooling trend and an ice age will follow due to this. But from the time Al Gore made his 'thing' public, It isn't gotten warmer for me.

I doubt, that the only question is whether it's man-made or not.
That may be the only question politicians are asking themselves.

I can't find conclusive evidence on what Gore said on melting glaciers and the extinction of polar bears in the arctic.
Only the opposite.

Since 1946, the USGS has maintained a research project measuring the state of Alaskan glaciers. This year saw records broken for most snow buildup. It was also the first time since any records began being that the glaciers did not shrink during the summer months.

Alaskan Glaciers Grow for First Time in 250 years

When Shroder and a team of researchers examined satellite imagery of the region's glaciers dating back to 1960, they found that 87 glaciers had surged forward during that time, sliding down into lower elevations. An analysis of gravity signatures in the region also suggests the glaciers are growing in mass, and have been since at least 1980.

HIMALAYAN GLACIERS SEEM TO BE GROWING

We all know now what might have happened to the polar bears that Al Gore used in his presentation. Connecting their death to global warming.

According to a recent report by Human Events, special investigators from the US government's Interior Department (ID) have found that a scientific paper published in a 2006 issue of the journal Polar Biology is filled with baseless assumptions about four specific polar bear deaths -- and this eventually became the foundational argument for the fight against global warming. But in reality, the deaths may have had nothing to do with melting ice caps, and everything to do with a simple windstorm

Global warming fraud: Iconic polar bear on melting ice cap a hoax
www.naturalnews.com...

reply to post by Blaine91555

Thanks for those links, i will surely take a look at them.

I will go for global cooling before man made global warming. Certainly all the stats I have seen, including the ones you have presented here, indicate cooling.

I remember a study by the Pentagon from about 1998 or so that looked at future weather trends to help guide the next decade of weapons developement, organizational make up, and possible areas of conflict up to 2025.

The findings were of gloabal cooling resulting in migrations of peoples, conflicts over regional resources, and even being able to walk across the English Channel and Chesapeake Bay in mid winter by 2025.

Anectdotally, for the first times in my 48 year life...we have had 3..count them...three White Christmas's here in north central NC in a row... as of last week ending Sept.10...we were actually using light blankets to wrap up in and no a/c...and it is still summer here in sunny Dixie....

The earliest frost warnings in decades have just been posted for our area of the country.
The Agricultural extension services are warning of a cold and snowy winter.

This must all be due to AGW, no?

jw

Originally posted by AlreadyGone

Anectdotally, for the first times in my 48 year life...we have had 3..count them...three White Christmas's here in north central NC in a row... as of last week ending Sept.10...we were actually using light blankets to wrap up in and no a/c...and it is still summer here in sunny Dixie....

warming and cooling trends are not determined by how harsh any particular seasonal weather is. they're measured by yearly averages and overall ice melts, both of which continue to increase despite "these" types of studies.

global cooling/mini ice-age is still but a prediction at this point. global warming however, is real and measurable. and no, I'm not an al gore fan. though man has made a mark on the planet's condition, it is in no way significant enough to the point little ol us can reverse it now. less polar ice = even more sunlight not reflected, and all the carbon cuts in the world cannot change that.

The Little Ice Age was not caused by reduced solar activity. However, the Maunder Minium did occur during the LIA and did indeed result in colder winters in Europe and N America.

Similar cold winters occurred during the preceding Medieval Warm Period. Unfortunately, so far as I know, we don;t have data to determine whether these might also have coincided with reduced solar activity.

Whether current colder winters in Europe and N America are down to reduced solar activity is, however, a moot point. One thing is for sure though, the Earth is not cooling. Maybe because AGW is balancing the expected cooling? Who knows .....

reply to post by AlreadyGone


The Pentagon study was a "what if?" scenario - not a prediction of what actually would happen.

The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable

www.climate.org...

See also:

seismo.berkeley.edu...

The potential effects of a Maunder Minimum on our present climate trend by 2100 would be a decrease in global temperature of 0.1°C . With all uncertainties taken into account, the estimated maximum decrease in global temperature is 0.3°C. In other words it would be totaly negligible. Looks like you deniers need another straw to grasp, your flogging a dead horse on this one

when i read maurice cotterell version of events so to speak,have made my mind up at least there we are up for change,for those of you who arent familiar he found a corelation between the mayan calander count and our suns magnetic activity,it would seem that at the end of each age calculated by the mayans correlates almost exactely with the sun every time it flips it axis...which again is due dec 2012...and i dont beleive in coincedences....

peace

reply to post by intergalactic fire

There is some good info in this post, but i disagree about one thing and that is the co2 concentrations.
You have to go back quite a bit to find higher co2 levels and the graph you posted actually shows that is higher now compared to last thousands of years as well. I think you might have missed the arrow at top right corner saying "current co2 level".
Not that it matters much since it seems co2 has little to no effect on global temperatures and that it is mainly temperatures that modulated co2 levels.

Another LIA is imo definitely possible if we end up in another maunder and have some volcanic activity on top, but still it is too early to tell what sun will do next cycle. Either way I think we are in for at least a decade or more of global cooling.

Originally posted by syrinx high priest
I reject his rejection. all data I have seen shows the earths temps rising. most gore haters and deniers even agree, and the only debate is if it is caused by human activity

so if the earth is getting warmer, yet the suns activity is getting weaker, I'd have to say this would indicate it is worse that I thought, and when the sun's activity picks up, I'm moving to south dakota

Maybe you should look beyond the last 30 years or even century?? Of course there is warming trend after a LONG cooling trend. It is not us skeptics fault that AGW "experts" arent capable of looking further back than decades.
Here is the temperature trend for entire interglacial period:

Here is the trend for the last 60 million years or so:


If you actually had bothered to do your own research instead of trusting mainstream media then you would have known that it is in fact unusually COLD right now.
Even if global warming was real that would not be a bad thing at all. The planet was not hotter in low latitude regions even when planet was much hotter. Only difference was that it was also liveable and temperate even in arctic regions. Antarctica once had forest, arctic regions once had palm trees even though it was about same latitude back then. So in other words the planet was LESS cold instead of burning hot like some wants you to believe.
It is also during ice age periods"we are in one now" that deserts are most common since there is then less moisture in atmosphere that can come down as precipitation.

The only issue with global warming is sea level increase and that is not something that happens over night.