Quake Watch 2011

reply to post by muzzy


I am storing up all the details of Mag 6+ quakes for the 2011 Analysis. This includes a PDF file of the main details of each quake - Details page, Location page, Shake map, seismic hazard map, Theoretical P-wave travel times, Phase data. There are no page breaks in these files since otherwise there is either much white space or fragmented images.

Basically this is all the detail that you get when you click on a listing item on my Quake Watch (Wordpress) Quake List 2011. The detail page from USGS is displayed here during the current month, and clicking that goes to the USGS site. Below these details is a list. The link there goes to the details page on my blog. This has all the data off USGS as defined above and it is a screen copy of this that makes the PDF.

The PDF files can be downloaded from Quake Analysis 2011 which is where all of these are stored and there will be a page of the graphs linked above as well.

When a quake is approximately 7 days old it gets a new ID on USGS. This is very confusing as it bears no resemblance to the original and the numbering is not consistent. ALL the links change when this happens except the shake map and PAGER alert.

What was say 'usc0003ft5' may become 'neic_ty3z', or sometimes if it is a big one the links are kept, or it becomes 'us2011ty3z'. As quakes drop off past the 7 day mark I try and update all these links but it is a massive task to keep up with along with everything else, and I only recently decided what format to use so it is way behind. The 2011 listing is always updated within a few hours.

If anyone knows of a government TLA that offers funding for this I will don a white coat and say that subduction, climate change and all other dogmatic elements of the Geology Religion are real and true. Cross my heart and hope to die receive funding.

Bookmark it as there is not much there yet but it is building.

Edit:

Here are some samples of changes so you can see what I mean.

Magnitude 6.1 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Thursday, May 05, 2011 at 14:58:18 UTC
Now neic_knbj
was usc000365q

Magnitude 6.2 SOUTH OF PANAMA
Saturday, April 30, 2011 at 08:19:16 UTC
Now neic_kia2
was usc00032mv and magnitude has been upped from 6.0

Magnitude 6.1 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
Sunday, April 24, 2011 at 23:07:51 UTC
Now neic_kcb6
was usc0002y0p and has been reduced from a 6.2

Magnitude 6.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Saturday, April 23, 2011 at 10:12:47 UTC
Now neic_kba1
was usc0002xfh

Magnitude 6.9 - SOLOMON ISLANDS
2011 April 23 04:16:55 UTC
Still usc0002xcx
ID not changed but the location of the details page has been moved to eqinthenews

Magnitude 6.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Thursday, April 21, 2011 at 13:36:58 UTC
Now neic_jza1
was usc0002w98. Has been increased from a 6.1

usc0002w18 was a 6.0 also on 21st April.
It has been downgraded to a 5.8
Now neic_jzag

Magnitude 6.6 SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS
Monday, April 18, 2011 at 13:03:02 UTC
Now neic_jwax
was usc0002ty7

reply to post by PuterMan


Thats pretty confusing about them changing the ID numbers alright, I hadn't noticed that before. They sure don't make it easy to do research do they. When you are doing research what you need is consistancy.

Thats pretty handy having all the info on one page, I downloaded one ( Chile) and it looks tidy.

One thing that USGS do do well is their pdf Posters of significant quakes, like this one of Pakistan Jan 18th 7.2
hazards.cr.usgs.gov...
Obviously they haven't got the reources to do that for every quake over Mag 6.

reply to post by zenius


Thanks I'm using the style I used on the NZ cross sections for this, I had to change the way the graph is set up though being N/S cross sections instead of W/E.

I lost my way with Greece section, too many quakes , some 1500 odd. When I checked the dates I had 4 months data somehow, back to Feb 2, instead of March 15th, no idea how that happened, thats not the criteria I used when downloading the data from EMSC.
I've deleted all those pre Mar15 ones, but there is still a lot of them.
Heres the graph for that.

Not what I expected at all, there isn't a clear curve where the supposed subduction zone is meant to be south of Crete, and I wonder whats up with that line at Romania , must be a major Faultline there to have so many quakes go from 5km to 165km deep in such a narrow band of co-ordinates.

Turkey is cluttered too, 750 quake events to plot, I'm going to see if splitting the country into 3 bands works better West/Central/ East, might be better that way as East picks up Syria and Iraq as well.



yeah 3 bands is looking more managable, Long 29-32, 32-38, 38-44 have about roughly 160 events each to work with. I may go back and split Greece into Mainland and Aegean yet

Heres a closer view of Romania from that map (Terrain View this time)
The mountains do a dogleg there, so must be something major going on below




Related to this

7.2
Date/Time: 1977/3/4 19:21:54.1
Lat: 45.77 Long: 26.76
Region: Romania
Mw: n/a Ms: n/a
Mb: 7.2 ML: n/a
Me: n/a Unk:
Depth: 94 km
Deaths: 1581 , Injuries: 10500
Tsunami: n/a
Source: noaa
The earthquake was centered about 170 kilometers northeast of Bucharest. It killed 1,500, injured about 10,500, and caused extensive damage in Bucharest and other parts of Romania. Bulgaria reported 20 killed and 165 injured. Some injuries and damage were reported in Yugoslavia. Moscow reported some damage in the Soviet Republic of Moldavia. This shock was felt from Rome to Moscow and from Turkey to Finland.

MWE 1977

Map of 1977 Romanian 7.2

reply to post by muzzy


Hi muzzy, good work there. What actually need to do to prove of disprove the subduction bit is to take a very narrow band, in the case of longitude (?). Say you think the subduction zone is south of crete

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/efaec0051128.jpg[/atsimg]

You would take all the quakes that fall directly on E25, or within a very narrow margin, and then all within the latitudes you want, say 33N to 38N

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/9009fcfe960e.jpg[/atsimg]

Sorry that should have been 38N. In essence exactly what you are doing but on a narrow band. Ideally you should do this for the right angle but I am afraid my maths is not up to calculating if something is on a line or not. Way too complicated and way too much effort.

That selection (using 38N) gives data from 01/01/2010 as follows:

Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
2011-05-11T18:56:35.300Z,37.36000,24.88000,3.0000,10.0000,SOUTHERN GREECE
2011-04-30T20:29:21.000Z,34.89000,25.04000,3.0000,1.0000,CRETE GREECE
2011-04-29T14:35:23.000Z,34.67000,24.99000,3.0000,15.0000,CRETE GREECE
2011-04-24T18:47:48.900Z,34.83000,24.81000,3.1000,18.0000,CRETE GREECE
2011-04-17T04:24:32.000Z,34.79000,24.85000,3.5000,2.0000,CRETE GREECE
2011-04-16T23:37:44.000Z,34.77000,24.84000,3.5000,2.0000,CRETE GREECE
2011-03-27T02:10:37.000Z,34.84000,25.02000,3.2000,2.0000,CRETE GREECE
2011-03-23T15:30:51.000Z,34.72380,25.07070,4.1000,1.7000,Crete. Greece
2011-03-09T03:05:38.000Z,34.15000,25.01000,3.7000,31.0000,CRETE GREECE
2011-03-06T03:28:17.000Z,34.80140,24.95990,4.2000,44.8000,Crete. Greece
2011-03-06T03:28:17.000Z,34.75000,24.97000,4.3000,48.0000,CRETE GREECE
2011-03-01T18:22:38.000Z,34.65000,24.93000,3.1000,15.0000,CRETE GREECE
2011-01-22T14:58:27.000Z,34.81000,25.14000,3.4000,2.0000,CRETE GREECE
2010-12-04T17:19:32.000Z,35.67000,24.98000,3.3000,31.0000,CRETE GREECE
2010-11-23T07:12:27.000Z,34.06000,25.05000,3.2000,10.0000,CRETE GREECE
2010-08-10T21:54:53.000Z,34.88000,24.94000,3.1000,30.0000,CRETE GREECE
2010-08-06T05:13:06.000Z,34.36000,25.03000,3.0000,1.0000,CRETE GREECE
2010-08-06T02:37:47.000Z,34.36810,25.03920,4.8000,36.3000,Crete. Greece
2010-06-22T10:54:23.000Z,36.09000,25.14000,3.0000,15.0000,DODECANESE ISLANDS GREECE
2010-06-21T05:06:37.000Z,36.12000,25.13000,3.4000,15.0000,DODECANESE ISLANDS GREECE
2010-06-06T12:20:59.000Z,35.36080,24.80130,4.3000,59.8000,Crete. Greece
2010-06-02T23:12:37.000Z,34.48000,25.14000,3.0000,8.0000,CRETE GREECE
2010-05-25T18:22:41.000Z,34.38000,24.97000,3.0000,10.0000,CRETE GREECE
2010-03-30T15:34:50.000Z,37.94000,24.81000,3.0000,10.0000,SOUTHERN GREECE
2010-03-05T22:06:30,34.95000,25.00000,3.1000,10.0000,CRETE GREECE
2010-03-05T17:09:19,34.64000,24.94000,3.2000,5.0000,CRETE GREECE
2010-03-05T00:39:35,34.69000,24.90000,3.1000,5.0000,CRETE GREECE
2010-02-12T21:00:03.000Z,34.60000,24.83000,4.2000,10.0000,CRETE GREECE
2010-02-05T13:15:29.000Z,34.94000,25.10000,3.2000,20.0000,CRETE GREECE

Visually I would say there is no zone on that particular line.

reply to post by PuterMan


Yes I think you are right, perhaps 1 degree of Longitude at a time would be clearer. I did NZ half a degree of Latitude at a time. Of course Longitude degrees are narrower than Latitude degrees the further north or south you go from the Equator. I'm getting confused by switching from W/E to N/S graphs.
At this stage I'll finish this as an "overview", then look at a closer breakdown.

reply to post by muzzy


Well I just did that one with the 0.4 longitude spread and it gets this

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/264b0b0ce753.jpg[/atsimg]

Now to my way of thinking if Africa was going under Greece the quakes should be on the green line but they are on the yellow lines. Maybe it has stopped? The think is this is just guesswork as for it to have stopped it would have happened over thousands of years and not in the modern human era so there would be no evidence that Africa ever was subducting under Europe.

It will also be thousands of years before it showed any signs of going the other way so they are really safe with this theory. But it is good for scaring funds out of governments!

reply to post by PuterMan



Yeah but move the green line to the left and a sharper angle and it looks like it would fit the subduction theory.
What is the green line anyway?

Japan Earthquake Was 'In the Air' Days Before, Scientist Claims

news.yahoo.com...

reply to post by SusanFrey


See. I told you it was radon. Someone find an article about that Italian guy who predict a quake using radon.

Originally posted by Robin Marks
reply to post by SusanFrey

 

See. I told you it was radon. Someone find an article about that Italian guy who predict a quake using radon.

You mean this guy?

A little over a week ago, a scientist little known in earthquake circles made a bold prediction of a destructive earthquake around the small town of Sulmona, Italy, based on readings of radon gas. Giampaolo Giuliani went so far as to tell the mayor of Sulmona that it would strike within the next 24 hours. The deadline passed, and nothing happened.

Then, early Tuesday, a magnitude 6.3 earthquake struck about 35 miles away, near the town of L’aquila, sparking a controversy in Italy and around the world about whether Guiliani actually predicted the temblor. That prediction is the latest twist in the maddening scientific quest to predict earthquakes.

Source

I noticed an interesting coincidence again, this time it is rather a bit more than just strange. Have a look at the (moderate) quakes 18 May (GMT) - Local is today.

02h43 =4.8 - Guam - 13.88 Lat
03h21 =4.6 - Sumatra - 4.23 Lat - Odd one at 97 Longtitude
03h36 =4.5 - Izu - 30.83 Lat
06h31 =4.6 - Volcano - 25.43 Lat
11h48 =4.5 - Honshu - 36.62 Lat
13h32 =4.5 - Honshu - 36.91 Lat
17h15 =5.0 - Honshu - 39.71 Lat
16h42 =5.6 - Kamchatka - 55.46

The odd one here is Indonesia, so take that out.
All the others are on the same edge of the same plate;
running in time and sequence from South to North.
Guam is 155 km deep and Kamchatka 18.2; all the others were 39 to 50 km deep.

Whole plate moving seriously now?

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by muzzy

 

Hi muzzy, good work there. What actually need to do to prove of disprove the subduction bit is to take a very narrow band, in the case of longitude (?). Say you think the subduction zone is south of crete

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/efaec0051128.jpg[/atsimg]

You would take all the quakes that fall directly on E25, or within a very narrow margin, and then all within the latitudes you want, say 33N to 38N

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/9009fcfe960e.jpg[/atsimg]

Sorry that should have been 38N. In essence exactly what you are doing but on a narrow band. Ideally you should do this for the right angle but I am afraid my maths is not up to calculating if something is on a line or not. Way too complicated and way too much effort.

That selection (using 38N) gives data from 01/01/2010 as follows:

Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
2011-05-11T18:56:35.300Z,37.36000,24.88000,3.0000,10.0000,SOUTHERN GREECE
2011-04-30T20:29:21.000Z,34.89000,25.04000,3.0000,1.0000,CRETE GREECE
2011-04-29T14:35:23.000Z,34.67000,24.99000,3.0000,15.0000,CRETE GREECE
2011-04-24T18:47:48.900Z,34.83000,24.81000,3.1000,18.0000,CRETE GREECE
2011-04-17T04:24:32.000Z,34.79000,24.85000,3.5000,2.0000,CRETE GREECE
2011-04-16T23:37:44.000Z,34.77000,24.84000,3.5000,2.0000,CRETE GREECE
2011-03-27T02:10:37.000Z,34.84000,25.02000,3.2000,2.0000,CRETE GREECE
2011-03-23T15:30:51.000Z,34.72380,25.07070,4.1000,1.7000,Crete. Greece
2011-03-09T03:05:38.000Z,34.15000,25.01000,3.7000,31.0000,CRETE GREECE
2011-03-06T03:28:17.000Z,34.80140,24.95990,4.2000,44.8000,Crete. Greece
2011-03-06T03:28:17.000Z,34.75000,24.97000,4.3000,48.0000,CRETE GREECE
2011-03-01T18:22:38.000Z,34.65000,24.93000,3.1000,15.0000,CRETE GREECE
2011-01-22T14:58:27.000Z,34.81000,25.14000,3.4000,2.0000,CRETE GREECE
2010-12-04T17:19:32.000Z,35.67000,24.98000,3.3000,31.0000,CRETE GREECE
2010-11-23T07:12:27.000Z,34.06000,25.05000,3.2000,10.0000,CRETE GREECE
2010-08-10T21:54:53.000Z,34.88000,24.94000,3.1000,30.0000,CRETE GREECE
2010-08-06T05:13:06.000Z,34.36000,25.03000,3.0000,1.0000,CRETE GREECE
2010-08-06T02:37:47.000Z,34.36810,25.03920,4.8000,36.3000,Crete. Greece
2010-06-22T10:54:23.000Z,36.09000,25.14000,3.0000,15.0000,DODECANESE ISLANDS GREECE
2010-06-21T05:06:37.000Z,36.12000,25.13000,3.4000,15.0000,DODECANESE ISLANDS GREECE
2010-06-06T12:20:59.000Z,35.36080,24.80130,4.3000,59.8000,Crete. Greece
2010-06-02T23:12:37.000Z,34.48000,25.14000,3.0000,8.0000,CRETE GREECE
2010-05-25T18:22:41.000Z,34.38000,24.97000,3.0000,10.0000,CRETE GREECE
2010-03-30T15:34:50.000Z,37.94000,24.81000,3.0000,10.0000,SOUTHERN GREECE
2010-03-05T22:06:30,34.95000,25.00000,3.1000,10.0000,CRETE GREECE
2010-03-05T17:09:19,34.64000,24.94000,3.2000,5.0000,CRETE GREECE
2010-03-05T00:39:35,34.69000,24.90000,3.1000,5.0000,CRETE GREECE
2010-02-12T21:00:03.000Z,34.60000,24.83000,4.2000,10.0000,CRETE GREECE
2010-02-05T13:15:29.000Z,34.94000,25.10000,3.2000,20.0000,CRETE GREECE

Visually I would say there is no zone on that particular line.

It's me,, "1500BC you say?

Well I've only downloaded and processed back to 1900 so far, but had a quick look on Utsu's IISEE catalogue and the first entry for Santorini is 1380BC "

Why am i looking at Santorini dead centre on this map,, please
thank-u
Me

reply to post by SusanFrey


Interesting article

So we should start looking at the infrared satellite weather maps for clues

reply to post by muzzy

Not exactly.

Apparently you need to first create a template of historical ORL (longwave infrared, 10-13μm) data for a region and time period. You then "overlay" current values and look for comparative anomalies to that.

It might not hurt to look for anomalous TEC values which correlate with the IR data but be sure to eliminate geomagnetic activity and solar activity as a possible source.

I don't know, it looks like there's a lot room for noise in the signal. Meaning room for nothing but coincidence.
arxiv.org...

reply to post by PuterMan


Mm,you know I had not looked at those points like that. If you are saying 2 distinct lines then it could fit. The green line was just my rather pathetic attempt at drawing where I thought the quakes should be if they were in a subduction zone. I think you would need to see a better pattern that that judging by graphs I have seen.

What is up with EMSC? That Banda quake was published as a 6.0 in the listings but was a 5.2 by the time I got to look at it.

Radon? Yes heard the theory but I am doubtful. Cities like Aberdeen in Scotland would be predicting earthquakes all over the place if radon was an indicator. You get radon gas where there is granite, amongst other places, and it is a serious problem for modern houses with their hermetically sealed windows and doors.

reply to post by BobAthome

Why am i looking at Santorini dead centre on this map,, please

Only because it happens to be on a whole number line of longitude that coincides with a possible north-south area of subduction that I could use for the graph and because it is the area where the next Greek mega-quake will occur followed by a mega eruption of the Santorini caldera and the formation of the "New Altantis".

No reason really.

reply to post by PuterMan

Yeah one of our company's suppliers from the UK sells a radon barrier membrane to put under floors, new construction of course. Is it harmful?, or just a nusiance to electronics or something ( I haven't looked into it yet)

reply to post by muzzy

Radon is radioactive. Prolonged exposure is bad.

4.168ML, 3515228, -40.61219, 175.14235, 2011/5/18 23:10:44, 42, o/s SW of Hokio Beach, Manawatu, 146 Felt Reports.
www.geonet.org.nz...

25.7km north of where I was at at the time, but didn't feel it, it was really windy from about 10am to 4pm where I was at PekaPeka.