Quake Watch 2010

reply to post by PuterMan


Fascinating.

What influences does that leave in the quake data generally from Australia and Russia? Any significant lasting effects?

Sounds like a pride issue, to this psychologist.

I wonder if there's any net statistical difference or if it all evens out to of no consequence over time?

reply to post by PuterMan


THANKS THANKS.

Fascinating analysis.

If you get to where you can say more on the predictive stuff about quakes, and care to keep track, please U2U me when you post it.

Personally, I still won't be surprised if this year finds things changing significantly in the quake dept. However, I've expected that yearly for the last 20 years. LOL.

I know that living in the Taipei basin for 13+ years was interesting . . . lots of sedimentary stuff under all the buildings. Wheeeeee.

What are the odds, in your personal estimation, that the inner valleys in Southern California and the Central Valley will fill with water in your lifetime?

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by muzzy

 

Happens with all of them except the Australian and the Russian sites, they put on one magnitude initially and I haven't seen them change later.

This is because they are obstinate bar stewards and obstinate programmers (!), I know because I have worked with both and you would not get
Both countries.
[edit on 29/7/2010 by PuterMan]

Originally posted by BO XIAN
reply to post by PuterMan

 

What influences does that leave in the quake data generally from Australia and Russia? Any significant lasting effects?
Sounds like a pride issue, to this psychologist.
I wonder if there's any net statistical difference or if it all evens out to of no consequence over time?

I don't use either for main sources of data, I follow the Russian site as a crosscheck, and the Australian one for Australian quakes ( yes they have a few )
I think that it all evens out in the end, its really only us who are compiling lists or developing data-grab programmes that the "is it 6.9?" or "is it 7.1?" is important, because for the people on the ground who the heck would be able to tell the difference when its happening?. If a building is going to fall down its of little importance if it happens during a 5.7 or a 7.1. Its a statistical thing. If we can build buildings that can withstand a 7.6MW then all the other lesser sized quakes are of little consequence, except to the Insurance Companies paying out for minor damage.

The thing to remember is its not the earthquakes that kill people, its either buildings collapsing, landslides or the sea coming in in a big wall of water



[edit on 29-7-2010 by muzzy]

Originally posted by BO XIAN
reply to post by muzzy

 

Is it your conviction that quakes have NOT been moderating significantly over all in the last year?

Or have you noticed some subtle to not so subtle trend changes?

I could give you a better answer in 3 day time when I complete the recheck of the last 4 years data, but at the moment 2010 looks above normal with 19 Seven Plus Mag quakes 7 months into the year

The peak in the last 80 years was 2007. with 30

Heres one of the charts off my Project

agnitude 6.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA
Date-Time

* Friday, July 30, 2010 at 03:56:14 UTC
* Friday, July 30, 2010 at 03:56:14 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 52.535°N, 159.919°E
Depth 21 km (13.0 miles)
Region OFF THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA
Distances 100 km (65 miles) ESE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy, Russia
335 km (210 miles) NE of Severo-Kuril'sk, Kuril Islands, Russia
500 km (310 miles) SW of Nikol'skoye, Komandorskiye Ostrova, Rus.
6900 km (4290 miles) NE of MOSCOW, Russia 1




followed by:



Magnitude 5.4
Date-Time

* Friday, July 30, 2010 at 04:28:02 UTC
* Friday, July 30, 2010 at 04:28:02 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 52.552°N, 159.920°E
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region OFF THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA
Distances 100 km (60 miles) ESE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy, Russia
335 km (210 miles) NE of Severo-Kuril'sk, Kuril Islands, Russia
495 km (310 miles) SW of Nikol'skoye, Komandorskiye Ostrova, Rus.
6900 km (4290 miles) NE of MOSCOW, Russia 1

Two ...make that three 5.0 's or greater last hour, odd locations too.....hmmmmmm

Apart from the odd Moro Gulf deep quake that appears less frequently now, the current quake mags and locations seem pretty normal to me.. as normal as quakes get, that is.

reply to post by muzzy


Very well put my friend. I think the collection of accurate (as possible) data is important since for one thing it keeps a check on the providers. USGS is aware that they are constantly being watched by us and that because of that they cannot get up to any funny business. This has been stated by them.

Did you also know (this little gem I heard 2 days ago) that USGS is one of only two organisations that has access to certain spy satellites, the other organisation being NASA. Mmmmm.

[Edit]
reply to post by BO XIAN

What are the odds, in your personal estimation, that the inner valleys in Southern California and the Central Valley will fill with water in your lifetime?

I suppose first one would need to determine what my 'lifetime' could be. Provided I studiously avoid roving bands of double-decker buses and make sure I eat only pure and wholesome foods, do not drink or smoke and take regular exercise instead of sitting in front of this computer then based on the average life expectancy of my family I might make it to another 30 years if I had not already died of complete boredom.

On the assumption that none of the above will happen and I continue to go on double-decker safaris I suppose it could be a shorter span.

Either way I don't think it is likely the valleys will fill with water, nor do I think CA will drop off the edge of America in that time span. Of course should I chance to happen upon the Tree Of Life then.....................

[edit on 30/7/2010 by PuterMan]

From the USGS
4.2 in Nevada Details and Map

and

5.3 mag in the Molucca Sea Details and Map

[edit on 30-7-2010 by Anmarie96]

Magnitude 5.1 MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

Date-Time

* Friday, July 30, 2010 at 12:40:26 UTC
* Friday, July 30, 2010 at 08:40:26 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 6.619°N, 123.615°E
Depth 581.2 km (361.2 miles)
Region MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
Distances 95 km (60 miles) SW of Cotabato, Mindanao, Philippines
135 km (85 miles) S of Pagadian, Mindanao, Philippines
175 km (110 miles) E of Zamboanga, Mindanao, Philippines
930 km (580 miles) SSE of MANILA, Philippines

[edit on 30-7-2010 by MoorfNZ]

Magnitude 5.6
Date-Time Friday, July 30, 2010 at 13:50:12 UTC
Friday, July 30, 2010 at 05:20:12 PM at epicenter

Location 35.260°N, 59.289°E
Depth 17.5 km (10.9 miles)
Region NORTHEASTERN IRAN
Distances NEAR Torbat-e Heydariyeh, Iran
115 km (70 miles) SSE of Neyshabur, Iran
120 km (75 miles) SSW of Mashhad, Iran
715 km (445 miles) E of TEHRAN, Iran

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 13.3 km (8.3 miles); depth +/- 5.7 km (3.5 miles)
Parameters NST=115, Nph=122, Dmin=896.1 km, Rmss=1.11 sec, Gp= 36°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=7
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)


Event ID us2010zibd

Source

reply to post by muzzy


Muzzy - That's one heck of a great project you have going

Magnitude 5.8 - Revised to 5.0
Date-Time Friday, July 30, 2010 at 14:41:28 UTC
Friday, July 30, 2010 at 08:41:28 AM at epicenter

Location 11.591°N, 86.653°W
Depth 96.1 km (59.7 miles)
Region NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
Distances 68 km (42 miles) SW (214°) from MANAGUA, Nicaragua
75 km (47 miles) S (187°) from Nagarote, Le�n, Nicaragua
85 km (53 miles) WSW (244°) from Granada, Nicaragua

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 26.4 km (16.4 miles); depth +/- 9.6 km (6.0 miles)
Parameters NST=178, Nph=199, Dmin=364 km, Rmss=0.94 sec, Gp=166°,
M-type="moment" magnitude from initial P wave (tsuboi method) (Mi/Mwp), Version=6
Source U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center:
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver

Event ID us2010zibg

Source

Things are rolling around today!

And CA and surrounding area is doing that thing again. Hold on tight

[edit on 30-7-2010 by Anmarie96]

[edit on 30-7-2010 by Anmarie96]

reply to post by muzzy


INDEED.

In Taipei, it got so I never even got out of bed for anything lower than about a 5.8 or so.

And, with enough quakes, and the same building, one kind of calibrates one's senses. I usually guessed the magnitude pretty closely.

Thx thx.

reply to post by muzzy


IMPRESSIVE WORK.

I'll check back for the update.

Would a regression line . . . [forgetting my stats] on that chart give an average slope? What's the best way to calculate an average slope?

I really want to keep up with your work. You seem to be head and shoulders above anyone else I've ever read on the topic. Congrats.

reply to post by PuterMan


THIS TO MUZZY, TOO . . .

I have heard . . . more or less relentlessly the noise that big quakes in one area . . . say Lassen Volcanic area of CA do not influence AT ALL say Yellowstone.

Yet . . . one year . . . I don't recall when . . .

there were quakes in a progressive line--in time and geography--from California across Nevada to very near the Yellowstone caldera.

Then a year or so later, I read where some hotshots were grudgingly admitting that some pretty distant quakes HAD caused say water levels in some geysers etc. to change in concert with those very distant quakes etc. etc.

What are y'all's perspectives on such things?

reply to post by BO XIAN

True enough about knowing your own building/house, I don't get out of bed for anything less than a 6.2
Our house has about 7 tons of concrete tiles on the roof, thats what concerns me, the construction of the house is like most New Zealand homes, timber framing with timber cladding (siding) so the walls falling down doesn't seem likely.
I have noticed Taiwan gets quite a few big quakes both on and offshore, the setting (subduction zone and mountaious terrain) very similar to NZ.
As I looked back into the 1940's and 30's one thing I noticed in the reports from China and also Iran and Turkey was the huge numbers of people killed in Adobe buildings and also how many people were living/killed in cave type constructions.

Originally posted by BO XIAN
reply to post by muzzy

 

IMPRESSIVE WORK.

I'll check back for the update.

Would a regression line . . . [forgetting my stats] on that chart give an average slope? What's the best way to calculate an average slope?

I really want to keep up with your work. You seem to be head and shoulders above anyone else I've ever read on the topic. Congrats.

Thanks very much
The more years I get on the more interesting it seems to get, as i complete each year going back I can't wait to get onto the next prior year. Its going to take some time to get back to 3000BC . This recent recheck and update has taken me 2 weeks (spare time job) but once its over then its back to 1929 on further. I had to do it as I found some new sources (thanks to Puterman) and I needed to standardize the format of the data to make it easier to plot the maps and load the background info. on the popup tags.

I'm not sure that trend lines show much, I'm not to aufait with the latest Excel versions graphing options.
the choices are;
Exponential (shows a slowly U curving upwards line from 10.5 to 17)
Linear (shows a straight rising line from 10.5 to 18)
Logarithmic (shows a sudden upwards n shaped rise 8- 13 (1930-1950) then keeps on rising from 13 to 16)
Polynomial (shows a part U shaped curve starting at 13 dipping to 12 about 1945 then rising steadily to 19 at 2010) end
Power (similar to Logarithmic but not so dramatic rise at the start)
Moving Average (pretty much just a line that follows the bars on the graph)

[edit on 30-7-2010 by muzzy]

Power cut here last night, so lost our Internet connection, so couldn't post these New Zealand events

Firstly a Minor quake off South Canterbury, unusual location, but not unprecendented;

REF:3347357
LOCATION: -44.1719, 171.87135
UTC: 2010/7/29 16:43:5
DEPTH: 160km
MAG: 3.316ML
REGION: South Canterbury Bight
LOCATION:
31.38km SSE of Ashburton
55km NE of Timaru
94km SW of Christchurch
Not reported as felt.
Incidentally the only earthquake in the South Island for 24 hours.

Also 7 more quakes at Okataina Volcanic Center;
REF, LAT, LONG, UTC TIME, DEPTH, MAG
3346733, -38.16077, 176.4682, 2010/7/28 14:3:39, 2, 2.346
3346798, -38.13232, 176.47098, 2010/7/28 16:32:49, 5, 2.51
3347356, -38.16036, 176.46663, 2010/7/29 16:40:5, 7, 2.072
3347381, -38.15456, 176.44786, 2010/7/29 17:56:57, 4, 2.131
3347400, -38.15641, 176.45714, 2010/7/29 18:49:22, 5, 2.71
3347478, -38.15719, 176.43483, 2010/7/29 19:39:58, 4, 2.44

I notice Geonet has started listing a few of these on Recent New Zealand Earthquakes even though only one of them has been reported felt by the public. Glad to see they are keeping an eye on things there.

And after quite a long quiet period, Offshore Matata, BOP is back in business, a 10 quake Swarm;
3347254, -37.78636, 176.8192, 2010/7/29 12:10:46, 5, 3.481 (FELT)
3347255, -37.78642, 176.82355, 2010/7/29 12:12:45, 2, 2.383
3347256, -37.75924, 176.84932, 2010/7/29 12:16:23, 2, 2.226
3347263, -37.77235, 176.82391, 2010/7/29 12:32:14, 4, 2.68
3347324, -37.77224, 176.83719, 2010/7/29 15:20:48, 1, 2.356
3347348, -37.77358, 176.81587, 2010/7/29 16:13:45, 7, 1.966
3347367, -37.78874, 176.81856, 2010/7/29 17:11:0, 1, 2.343
3347370, -37.78595, 176.81746, 2010/7/29 17:17:35, 0, 2.114
3347396, -37.78124, 176.81445, 2010/7/29 18:37:36, 2, 2.618
3347836, -38.1613, 176.46107, 2010/7/30 14:15:16, 5, 2.415

You can see all those on this Map

The last small Matata swarm was over a few days 9th-12th Jan 2010 [22 events], and prior to that 9th-12th August 2009 [19 events] and 26th April-6th May 2009[72 events].
Over a longer period this area has had 2 phases of swarm activity 2005 [1000 events] and 2007 [1200 events]

Article about Matata 2005 & 2007 Swarms



[edit on 30-7-2010 by muzzy]

reply to post by Anmarie96


Thanks Anmarie
Do you think I have got the format /layout right?
I have the newest years first, which seems logical, but when I put a new (older) year on I have to backdate the post date on the Wordpress page to get them all in sequence. The problem with that is that new posts (older years) don't show up as new posts on the Web, so its hard to get new viewers as Blogs only list new posts. I was wondering if I should reverse the sequence and have the 2010 year at the end.

Interesting what brings people to that Blog, these are the latest searches;
earthquake in columbia,
what historical events have happened in tanzania from 1900-2010,
number of earthquakes each year graph 1900-2010




[edit on 30-7-2010 by muzzy]

We are interrupting this program....

...to bring you news that the world will end shortly. No not really, but I have been taking a look at earthquake events this year.

The graphs and figures are the 12 month rolling totals for quakes so far this year. (i.e Jan-Dec incl, Feb-Jan incl etc)

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/5d114c94856e.png[/atsimg]

There does seem to be a very appreciable increase, but much more importantly is when you calculate this as released energy we must be looking at a MASSIVE increase. (I will try and do that later)

These figures do not include tomorrow yet as I do not have access to that data

[edit on 30/7/2010 by PuterMan]