How Deep is your Understanding of Economics?!

reply to post by kosmicjack




naw, only because i read that mouthful of words at wired.com

hey that would be a good 'Answer' at either 'Wheel Of Fortune or 'Jeopardy' wouldn't it !

Originally posted by Anonymous Avatar
reply to post by Quest

 

Then where are we headed Quest?

Heck if I know. I have some educated guesses but there are a range of possibilities all that have various chance of occurring. Anyone who say they know what will happen with any certainty is either a liar or insane.

If it helps though...

I have put my money into a remote house surrounded by forest, have a basement full of a food and personal protection, and just finished installing a rain capture and filtration system. This summer is going to be bringing down some big trees and piling up that fire wood. Even if things swing toward some kind of new functional system, I'd still live this way because I like it.

reply to post by pause4thought


Great question! Keep in mind that (I forget who said it), "Economics is an art, not a science".

I have a lot of practical experience. 25 years on Wall Street, ending in very senior roles. I've also got a degree in Economics and Political Theory and spend most of my lesiure time reading about the stuff.

I'd rate myself about a 6-7. I have very indepth knowledge of the securities industry, asset management and banking industries, especially from an operational perspective. I've got a pretty good understanding of macro-economics, particularily as it relates to political environments. I have a poor grasp on micro-economics and the math is way beyond me, especially when you get to econometrics and that kind of thing.

reply to post by dolphinfan

25 years on Wall Street, ending in very senior roles. I've also got a degree in Economics and Political Theory and spend most of my lesiure time reading about the stuff.

I'd rate myself about a 6-7.

I just can't bring myself to joke about this. You've got to admit a 9, truly. (But I've so much to learn from you I daren't push the issue.)

All I can really say is it's truly tremendous folks like you are prepared to share your knowledge. (And if you'd be so kind, do please drop in to the market data thread from time to time, where we try to interpret the figures to enhance all the other threads.)

reply to post by pause4thought


Very kind! The fact is that I have no, and I mean no facility for math and to be high on the scale, I think you need to be a pretty good numbers guy. I would rate myself a 9 on how the industry works, down to a pretty granular level, but the economic theory at a math level is way beyond me.

reply to post by dolphinfan


I'd just like to say officially that for the purposes of the discussion I fully intended financial knowledge to be included.

(St Udio: Hope you don't mind.)

reply to post by pause4thought


Point taken. It really depends how you define the boundries of the subject of which you're discussing though, doesn't it? When I'm discussing "math", I'm placing that in the context of having spent two decades working with Phd's in Econ, Math and Operations Management. For the purposes of this discussion, I think I can hold my own, but thanks for the clarification

Hmmm... I would rate myself at 6

I know what I am talking about, but it's constantly a learning process.. my protfolio grows, but I am yet to be a millionaire.

I am a 10...my understanding of economic principles is profound. So much so that I feel the economy as if it were a part of me. I saw it stop growing in March of 2000 and abandoned it. I saw that the market for stocks kept growing and knew it was a lie. And now I see it near collapse and know it is time to get back in; according to your own abilities.

I see the survivalist mentality ebbing. sell dollars and buy commodities is a trick; you'll find yourself broke and sad. buy bonds, buy stocks, keep cash, renegotiate your debt and invest in your craft.

That's my advice.

don't buy a new home yet though, put it off about a year.

reply to post by huckfinn


Where you being sarcastic? Because I have read some of your threads/posts...

Originally posted by huckfinn

I am a 10...my understanding of economic principles is profound. So much so that I feel the economy as if it were a part of me.

Iran has a secret embassy down in Panther Burn, Mississippi

huckfinn quote

The Iranians have a particular need for the very unique skills possessed by the occupants of the Mississippi Delta. I believe they specifically require their knowledge and expertise in areas of HooDoo.

huckfinn quote

I have no doubt that your "economic understanding" must be quite "profound" just like your comprehensive knowledge of Mississippi history!

I would appreciate it if you could come on A.T.S. daily & give brilliant stock picks!

I shall (as always) be eagerly awaiting your sagacious submissions to A.T.S.

reply to post by Rockpuck


I was serious; my threads and posts have an exotic sanity. Let's just put it this way...whatever is going on in this world, I haven't been adversely affected by it at all. Surely that's worth something in a world that is obviously imploding.

reply to post by huckfinn


How did you escape from the Simpsons?

(Welcome!)

reply to post by huckfinn


Interesting choice of name. Mark Twain was quite a character as you seem to be as well. No doubt both have an affinity for the Mississippi...

I'd rate myself a 5. I understand the relationship between price and yield on bonds. I understand the mechanics of options(puts and calls) and some simple option stategies (collars, straddles, and stangles). I understand the difference between common and preferred stock. I know what a CDS is as well as a plethora of other financial acronyms. I know the difference between etfs and mutual funds.

Zero formal education in finance aside from a couple of low level econ classes at a community college. I do spend a ridiculous amount of time educating myself on the subject though.

I'd really like a better understanding of Currency and Commodities markets.

OP great Idea on rating yourself. I'd like to maybe flesh out the scale though

1= Average American who may know that they have stocks and bonds in a 401k/Pension funde

3= Someone who knows that bond price and yeild have and inverse relationship, and understand this.

5= Rudimentary knowledge of stocks, bonds, etfs, mutual funds, and standard options

7=Someone who has traded professionally, or someone who has a long string of profitabillity or prescient calls.

10= Denninger, Roubini, Krugman, Volker....etc

[edit on 5-3-2009 by jefwane]

reply to post by jefwane


I don't know the rest of my Peers, but I was reading an article about Roubini the other day and I think his success is a result of him being handed priviledged information by powerful people. He's being made into a star, I don't have any reason to believe that his predictions are made as a result of his ability to analyze economic data.

Most of my success at predicting economic events is a result of my understanding of War than my understanding of Economics; and nothing that is happening in the world is a result of Economic problems but as a result of the rapidly changing strategic political, military and legal situation.

I don't think anyone is a 10...at least in our government...otherwise we wouldn't have this problem and rising crisis.

You hear so many conflicting reports battling each other essentially about how bad/good our economy is that its nearly impossible to gain factual information just by listening/watching/reading about it. Numbers are tossed around like toys.

I'd rate myself a 3 because I simply just don't understand how things got this bad without some type of contamination or outside source. We are witnessing our economic system imploding on itself.

I don't think we need to see or understand the facts now, we're seeing consequences of the economy declining and thats something we all grasp universally.

I am just a housewife, with a very dusty business degree from the early eighties.

Right now I just post my opinions and views of how I see the nations economy going with links on articles that I find interesting on certain topics related to threads.

And I am not rating myself, because I don't fall in any category but that of an aficionado when it comes to the nations well being.

Plain and simple.

reply to post by huckfinn



you said:
"Most of my success at predicting economic events is a result of my understanding of War than my understanding of Economics; and nothing that is happening in the world is a result of Economic problems but as a result of the rapidly changing strategic political, military and legal situation. ""

Here, Here.. !!
your quite correct, its mostly legal stuff, as the regulators/overseers
allowed (and still allow) the issuing of debt paper without asset backing...
by the few remaining 'Primary Dealers'..
& that magical debt 'poof-out-of-thin-air'
is dutifully collateralized/monetized by us taxpayers through the official
rip-off called TARP or TALF bailouts.



And to Marg6043.... When you say->
"I am just a housewife,
with a very dusty business degree from the early eighties.
. [...]
And I am not rating myself, because I don't fall in any category but that of an aficionado when it comes to the nations well being. ""


Just a housewife???? Come on-now...

and then, gasp, you also admit to being an Aficionado...
...well, glad there's at least Two-of-us Aficionados on ATS,

reply to post by St Udio


Udio I love the way you put things in perspective, you know I am just lucky sometimes when my guesses become reality but then again I am good at seen the future (sometimes) and that means in a lot of other areas too.

I am just a humble housewife that likes to keep up with todays news, plus I have to say this, I am addicted to the markets news.

But that is as far as I go.

I always trust your views of things and look forward for to your opinions.