The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

According to CNBC asia, last night, they said that if the 30 years bond market level breaks 4.80, the bond market will crash...

Any thoughts on that?

The dire state of the British economy is spelled out in three articles today (19 Feb) in the Independent:

Britain's public finances are in a worse position than those of Greece, according to the latest figures on government borrowing. The Office for National Statistics said yesterday that January alone saw a net shortfall of £4.3bn, far worse than City forecasts and in a month which has always previously shown a healthy surplus. It puts the UK on track for a deficit of £180bn this year, or 12.8 per cent of GDP, economists said, shading the Greek figure, hitherto the worst in the European Union, of 12.7 per cent.

Shock as British deficit equals that of Greece

Anonymous economists are wheeled out to sweeten the pill, pointing out that:

the total national debt carried by Britain is still lower than Greece and other so-called PIIGS – Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain, the eurozone's most heavily indebted nations. Although it has been expanding rapidly, UK national debt stands at about 60 per cent of GDP, against more than 100 per cent in most of these other states.

But this fig-leaf is torn away by the next piece:

...we will have a higher national debt relative to GDP than France, Germany or the US by 2014. Everyone's debts have gone up but ours have gone up faster than anyone else's. According to those estimates from the Economist Intelligence Unit the size of the debt will be more than 100 per cent of GDP by 2014. Back in 2004 it was less than 40 per cent. More of our tax revenues will have to go simply to paying interest on debt and not be available for funding public services.

Implosion in tax receipts leaves us with debts that could soon top GDP.

Then the consequences of a national debt topping 90% of GDP are explored in another piece:

If it does, research suggests, an economy can enter a "slow death" spiral, where rising debt payments can be met only by continually rising taxes, which depress GDP even more.

At the other end of the spectrum would be a collapse in confidence in the ability of the Government to meet its obligations, Greek-style. A "gilts strike" by the markets, perhaps spurred by a downgrade in the credit rating of UK government debt, would devalue those widely held securities at a stroke: the destruction of wealth would make the subprime crisis look like a tea party, and affect almost everyone with a pension, for example. The vast quantity of gilts held in pension and insurance funds as supposedly ultra-safe assets would be worth far less, slashing the value of people's retirement funds and very possibly pushing those institutions towards insolvency. Much the same goes for other financial institutions with their reserves held in gilts – including the banks, who, like the pension companies, are required to hold a proportion of their assets in supposedly ultra-safe gilts.

Again the nation would face the "too big to fail" dilemma as balance sheets disintegrated. We would have to bail out these big institutions. Except that this time, the Government would no longer be able to issue new gilts to pay for the bailouts, leaving the whole system in meltdown. Or, more likely, the UK going to the IMF for emergency assistance. The Greeks may beat us to it, but we may not be that far behind.

Trouble on the streets – and in the markets

reply to post by GBP/JPY


You would like this new program I have for your pair.

So far averaging about .80 cents a day in backtesting.

Also have a swing trading program made that yielded 1200 pips (with 1 pip spread in testing) and no slippage for EUR USD. These gains were made from May 09-Current time. I can't get data any further back than that, so am forward testing now.

What other pairs do you trade?

hey....eur/aud, g/j and aud/usd....hail yes i want to know that technique. and what's your thoughts on scalping 3 pips or 2....seems to net 100 pips per day with no losses(trade non moving times) new york session.

reply to post by GBP/JPY


you are scalping GBP/JPY? What is your spread?

I am testing with a 5 pip spread I believe with a FXCM Feed through Sierra Charts.

You can scalp literally 30 times a day for .03?

What is your stop?

I think it can be done if you have a good spread for that pair, who do you use?

What is other high volatility pairs with low spreads?

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by Cabaret Voltaire

 

Quite astute.

I think what you are witnessing actually is support and resistance. Take a look at the daily chart and draw a line crossing from that mini breakout we had about a month or so ago, and that is now the resistance to the past two pushes we have had underneath the 20 EMA Daily. I can post a picture later

Yeah. That break above 10,550 wasn't very convincing, but it was a breakout while it lasted. I still think the math club is engineering a simplistic 1-2-3 top for the chart readers and they Media was so negative a few weeks ago they're burning the put buyers in the process. Already this morning the Dow Futures are trading about 110 points below the DJIA close. People really pile on those easily recognized chart patterns and the momentum takes control.

The EUR/USD is sitting pretty much in the sweet spot of it's countermove from about 124 up to 151. This should be an interesting couple of weeks with the interest decision we saw Thursday after closing. I really don't get the Euro. I am guessing it could beeble-bobble around in a triangle for a couple of weeks, or it could just head straight down to the next lowest level. I don't know. That is why I leave it alone. I used to look for mechanical systems, but it always would flip-flop after several weeks. Problem was you would never know when the flip came. It would come and take your money back. FOREX is evil. It is the pinksheets of the 21st century, and pushed just like pinksheets with all the same hype and excitement.... ''I made 8000% profit automatically! While I slept!''

reply to post by Cabaret Voltaire


You can lose 100% just as fast, trust me haha.

Mean reversion on volatile pairs is what I am focusing on. You should think about that if you are looking for a start.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


GBM, ~if~ you can journey down deep into the fractal world and return with the code that actually produces the ''Money fall out da screen!'' scenario, automatically, while you sleep, ~then~ you will be the most popular guy in the basement.

And at that point you shouldn't tell nobody.

And your broker will hunt you down.

And Homeland Security, too.

And crown you, or crucify you. I'm not sure which.

reply to post by Cabaret Voltaire


It's nothing that special, but with programming you can set very defined risk management rules, and thats really all it is all about. Even with a simple MA Crossover system you can prob. achieve at least minimal results with a tight stop. Though you cannot live on that and would be crazy if you put your money on the line for that kind of system.

Since this GPY program is based on a 233tick chart the backtesting will take probably a week. The EUR USD was based on hourly candles so that tested much faster. That and a 1400 mhz hurts my cause.

I have much better programs for the ES Mini and CL (Light Sweet Crude) IMO

reply to post by GreenBicMan


If you can't live off it, then what good is it?

Plus, if you can start with $1000 and turn it into $10,000 then shouldn't you be able to turn the $10,000 into $100,000 and then $1,000,000 and then $10,000,000?

My system will take anything you throw at it and multiply the hell out of it. I'm working on the double or triple as a goal each year. With any amount. You could put in $50 million and get back $100 million or $150 million.

The currency market is transacting billions. You should be able to pretty much bang it with any amount.

reply to post by Cabaret Voltaire


Well you will have to find a lot of liquidity to pull that without slippage. That is not realistic, even in crude market most likely.

In the ES MINI you can lay about 100 contracts without experiencing slippage I am guessing. 200 contracts will probably cost you .25 which equals

12.50 * 200 = $2500 per tick of slippage.

Execute overnight and suffer 3 ticks.

All my programs are scalable, but there is only so much theoretic scalability involved unless you are trading CITI or something. That has ridiculous volume on both sides bid and ask.

So in reality this is not possible. But you gotta get there first. I can only afford .10 a tick when my tax return comes in, so it will take a while as I plan on making smaller quick consistent gains. If my results come up good and I have a large enough sample we'll see if we can't set something up.

Some interesting comments about quants below the video.

reply to post by Cabaret Voltaire


These "quant" people are good at making mathematical models, but not good traders necessarily.

The ways these guys are beating us are actually helping us in a way through multi security arbitrage. These are difficult models to conceptualize and implement, but do make the market quite efficient and add a lot of liquidity.

Big news :

Citigroup Warns Customers It May Refuse To Allow Withdrawals

"Effective April 1, 2010, we reserve the right to require (7) days advance notice before permitting a withdrawal from all checking accounts. While we do not currently exercise this right and have not exercised it in the past, we are required by law to notify you of this change," Citigroup said on statements received by customers all over the country.

Yeah and some people said a bank holiday was impossible...

Originally posted by Vitchilo
Big news :

Citigroup Warns Customers It May Refuse To Allow Withdrawals

"Effective April 1, 2010, we reserve the right to require (7) days advance notice before permitting a withdrawal from all checking accounts. While we do not currently exercise this right and have not exercised it in the past, we are required by law to notify you of this change," Citigroup said on statements received by customers all over the country.

Yeah and some people said a bank holiday was impossible...

Hey Vitchilo, You need to post this with its own thread....

I'm not in the mood for a thread tonight.

Anyone willing to do one, go ahead.

wow the citibank thing is weird... only effective in texas? why texas? god! the next few years are gonna be interesting....

i've some input on the euro and quant parabolcs and new math....the euro is bound by options strikes and expiries. and the best quants get us 3% per month....a little better if they don't trade the usd/jpy

Gota say I am pretty skeptical.

You always have an easy money making system going. Although it always changes. Yet you are getting a tax refund despite killing the markets with short term profits, you still live at home, probably still can't afford to fix your car, and are waiting for that tax return to be able to trade again. Either I am missing something or you are dillusional just like all the day traders I run across. You remind me of all the guys on the CNBC shows who give a majority of losing trades but always paint themselves as stock geniuses. I call them herd dogs because they lead the sheep to the slaughter.