World at peak oil output

After hearing a debate about abiotic oil on C2C about a year ago, decided to do some research. The guy for 'peak oil' was ruining him on all counts, even Nory was trying to help the other one out. It seems like a total hoax, a couple of sites out there suggest it and then debunk it a moment later. Other substances can self-recreate -- oil, I don't think is one of them.

This is a serious issue that in a couple years, forgot about hovering at 90$/100 a barrel will be more theater oil wars. Count on this being ugly now that seems like cold war brewing over these topics btwn US and China/Russia. Don't expect a friendly resolve anytime soon.

Unless some alt source hits quick, trouble. Nuke energy is the way to go, been reading awful stories about biofuels/ethanol. I guess some helium3 from the Moon is quickly happening concept w/ all three countries due there within a decade. Who do you think will have the rights? Finders? China wins.

[edit on 25-10-2007 by anhinga]

Originally posted by BitRaiser
reply to post by DeadFlagBlues

 

I'm very aware of the advances in Electric cars.
It's a good thing.

But what I'm saying is what's the point of going to electric cars when you are still burning fossil fuels to produce your electricity?

What's the point of me stating that electric batteries now have the capability to recharge themselves through their own means and you not listening?

These are 2006 numbers for how electricity is produced.

Coal 49.7%
Nuclear 19.3%
Natural Gas 18.7%
Hydro 6.5%
Oil (Petroleum) 3%
Other 2.8%



www.eia.doe.gov...

www.eia.doe.gov...

Originally posted by marg6043

Well this means that we are to pay more for oil, because the production will be restricted so hey we need to attack and invade Iran so we can have more oil.

A big problem here, isn't that what the invasion of Iraq was about? but still what happen to the Iraqi oil.

Oh well I guess I will be asking Santa this holidays for a sparkling new bicycle.

You know..

It could be that the United States sees that world oil supplies are reaching its cap (or passed) and will then dwindle.....

So we are attacking the largest oil fields in the world and holding the oil?

Notice.. we drill a small amount of our own oil and import from everywhere else.. when the world runs dry the US will have the largest oil reserve, which will make our military far more powerful then it already is as no one else will have the oil we do. If we control iraq and Iran either directly or by proxy then we have two of the largest oil reserves in the world.. we already told the Tawain oil field in the South China Sea (preventing China from drilling) and by proxy and capitalistic exploitation have strong ties to the Siberian oil fields....

Yes, our wars are oil wars.

But in the long run.. it might be a good thing. Or not. Who knows. Eventually large wars WILL break out over it.. what happens when you cut a nation from its oil supplies? .. Look at Japan before WWII.

reply to post by Jadette


You all are obviously not reading anything I'm saying.



THE NEW ELECTRIC MOTOR DESIGN HAS THE ABILITY TO RECHARGE ITSELF.

As in no need to use any municiple utility.


Jesus Christ.


What about hydrogen? Or the new air compression system? Let's argue over a few fine points of these two things, since you all hate reading so much.

Originally posted by DeadFlagBlues
What about hydrogen? Or the new air compression system?

Hydrygen, electricity, and compressed air are simply methods of storing energy. They are not energy sources.

One thing I don't want people to overlook or misuderstand is that peak oil doesn't mean *poof* no more oil. It means that the easiest, cheapest oil has been used up. We'll never run out of oil. Eventually it will just become too expensive to get out of the ground.

On the remark that OPEC won't release more oil because it will drive down the price. Remember that OPEC must sell oil to meet their financial requirements. Trust me when I say that they're selling everything they can. In Saudi Arabia, they're having issues paying for everyone's free health care, education, etc. If they could get more money by selling more oil they would.

There are several other factors that are overlooked here as well. China, the U.S. and many other countries have been procrastinating filling their oil reserves on the hopes that prices will fall. Prices aren't falling and they're going to have to fill their reserves anyway. The current demand for oil is huge and keeps growing. Price is almost irrelevant. Would you stop buying gas if it was $5 a gallon? I doubt it.

reply to post by dbates


Why is that even an issue? What was the point of quoting what I said if you're not going to take what I said into full context. We have those means readily/naturally available without any detrimental effects that are associated with fossil fuels and other orthodox energy system. So as it's APPARENT that they aren't sources, they are still a means to an end.

It's an issue because in order to store energy you need an energy supply. Hydrogen, compressed air, and batteries are a net energy loss. It takes more energy to create and store than you get work out of the other end.

Also, the more fossil fuels cost, the more it's going to cost to have these types of energy. "A rising tide raises all ships". Your soulution could be summed up by saying "Steel blocks are heavy, so I'll carry lead ones instead." You're dumping one problem for another that's even worse. Just because it's different doesn't make it better.

Originally posted by dbates

The world has reached the point of maximum oil output and production levels will halve by 2030 -- a situation that will eventually lead to war and disaster, a report claims.

The German-based Energy Watch Group released a report Tuesday saying the world's oil production peaked in 2006 and from now on will drop by around 3 percent a year. It says that by as early as 2030, the global availability of oil will be half of what it was at its peak.

So do the Germans just know best or how did they arrive at this startling conclusion when so few others can? Why has oil production increased by the end of 2007?

According to the IEA, world production of total liquids in October increased by 1.4 million b/d from September resulting in total world liquids production of 86.5 million b/d, -- the all time high liquids production. Many analysts are skeptical of this number and want to await confirmation from other sources.

www.energybulletin.net...

So there has not been a peak yet despite all the claims to the contrary. Show me ONE peak advocate that has every apologised for getting it so very wrong?

Saudi Arabia will continue to maintain surplus crude production capacity of 2 million b/d and is working on its plans to achieve 12.5 million b/d of total capacity by 2009, Naimi said. The country is producing close to 9 million b/d currently. He also said Saudi Arabia would soon add 500,000 b/d of light crude production capacity.

To back up the Oil Minister, Saudi ARAMCO’s CEO, Abdullah Jum’ah, said in a speech that more than 30 years of doomsday forecasts have been put forward about the petroleum industry and have since been proven false. He offered a statistical basis for his argument that forecasts for the ultimate recovery of conventional oil resources have actually increased over time. Addressing the 20th Congress of the World Energy Council, Jum’ah “demonstrated” that there will be enough conventional and non-conventional liquid energy resources for decades to come.

energybulletin.net...

"In 1947, proven oil reserves were 68 billion barrels. Between 1947 and 1968, 783 billion barrels were used —and proven reserves in 1998 stood at 1,000 billion (1 trillion) barrels.
"In 1966, world reserves of natural gas were 1 quadrillion cubic feet. Between 1966 and 1998, we used 2 quadrillion cubic feet — and reserves in 1998 stood at 5 quadrillion cubic feet.
"In 1949, world coal reserves were 256 billion short tons. Between 1949 and 1998, we used 168 billion short tons — and coal reserves stood at 1,000 billion (1 trillion) short tons."

www.oism.org...

So reserves keep improving despite massive use and despite being persistently wrong the peakers just keep at it!

At 2003 consumption levels [2], the remaining reserves represent 44.6 years of oil and 66.2 years of natural gas. Does this mean that the world will be out of fossil fuels in 50 years or so? That theory has been around since the 1970s. In fact, the figures for years of remaining reserves have remained relative constant over the past few decades as the industry has replaced consumption with newly discovered oil and gas deposits and has developed technologies to increase the amount of oil and gas that can be recovered from existing reservoirs.

No one can know for certain how much oil and gas remains to be discovered. But geologists sometimes make educated guesses. For example, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts periodic assessments of U.S. mineral resources. In its most recent assessment (1995), the USGS estimated that the onshore U.S., including Alaska, has undiscovered, technically recoverable resources of 112.3 billion barrels of oil and 1,074 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. In a separate assessment of offshore resources completed in 2000, the U.S. Minerals Management Service (MMS) estimated that 75 billion barrels of oil and 362 trillion cubic feet of natural gas underlie the areas off the coasts of the U.S. The USGS and MMS resource assessments make clear that, despite being a very mature producing area, substantial resources still exist in the U.S.

World oil resources to 2025 may be more than two times current reserves, based on an estimate from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) using USGS data. Reserve growth of 730 billion barrels accounts for new discoveries and the expansion of what can be recovered from known reservoirs due to advances in technology and improvements in economics. But EIA estimates that in 2025, countries around the globe will still have more than 900 billion barrels of oil remaining to be discovered. EIA estimates total world oil resources at more than 2.9 trillion barrels of oil.

How much oil and natural gas i left?

What sort of proof is it going to take before the peak oilers give up their misinformation presuming that even the people who visits ATS can't read and don't know how to expose such a obvious scam?

Related AboveTopSecret.com Discussion Threads:
$100 Oil By Year End
The Oil Crisis of 2012?
Running out of oil faster than expected. War looms in the distance. zzzzz

And i have posted on two of those threads and a few dozen other related to the creation of artificial scarcity paradigms.

Originally posted by dbates
These reports and stories are finally being picked up by the main stream media.

What do you mean they are 'finally' being picked up? Why will the media still publish junk predictions about a resource who's demise has been predicted more times and i care to count? Can any credible news agency still risk it's name by peddling such nonsense? Then again CNN is not credible so i guess that explains it!

They're going to have to start reporting on this because it's getting harder and harder to deny.

And yet here i am doing all the denying with 'evidence' that has clearly been concocted by clever industry specialist! Oil has in fact 'run out' and in some parts of the world they now have cars and industry running on hot air to hide this 'fact' ! Right!

Oil sits near an all-time high and it doesn't look like the price will drop in the future.

So when food prices go up we should hoard it because it's clearly 'running out'? How ludicrous would that be and why would we do something like that for a resource that is extracted from vast and proven reserves?

Meanwhile, oil production is slipping despite the high prices.

IF some countries were not filling their strategic reserves and invading oil producing countries maybe there would be a additionl million or two barrels a day available on the world market?

1*www.senate.gov...

2*releases.usnewswire.com...

3*www.senate.gov...

4*www.washingtonpost.com...

If there was more oil to sell, now would be the time to put it on the market.

There clearly is more oil to sell as some countries are putting it in their strategic reserves instead of releasing it to lower prices!

Apparently the world can't keep the oil supply steady, much less keep up with demand.
www.cnn.com

And how can such markets be steadied when some countries are threatening invasions and generally doing their best to create panick in the resource markets? Why did the Saudis and others decide to reduce production ?

Continued

[edit on 17-12-2007 by StellarX]

SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones) -- Saudi Arabia, which already has aggressively shaved its oil output in a battle to shore up prices, will reduce production by another 158,000 barrels per day beginning Thursday and more cuts are on the way, according to a media report.

The Saudi cut is seen as an aggressive move to keep the price of the U.S. benchmark crude above $55 a barrel, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday in its online edition, quoting Roger Diwan, an analyst at PFC Energy, a Washington industry consultancy.

The latest cut means Saudi Arabia will have reduced production by about 1 million barrels per day in the past six months, The Journal said, citing an unnamed senior Saudi oil official.

money.cnn.com...

Saudi Arabia, which already has aggressively shaved its oil output in a battle to shore up prices, is tightening its spigots further this week.

A senior Saudi oil official said yesterday the kingdom had advised its customers of the impending 158,000 barrel-a-day cut, which takes effect Feb. 1. The reductions, part of a broader campaign by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, are intended to shrink inventories of oil that had ballooned last year as demand growth for petroleum faltered.

"After these cuts, our oil production will have declined by about one million barrels a day since last summer," said the senior Saudi oil official.

online.wsj.com...

And yet the world is STILL producing more than it did a year ago? Why should we expect demand to remain high when prices have so massively increased? Where are people supposed to get the money to pay for energy that is so much more expensive?

More importantly why are oil industry profits at a all time high when the resource has all but run out? When are they going to start spending themselves into bankruptcy to find that supposedly impossibly hard to find oil?

Based on the return on equity of comparable firms, which is the basic measure of profitability on which oil companies themselves rely when they report their earnings to their shareholders, oil companies are earning far too much (see Exhibits 9 and 10). In the past five years, they have set record after record. Total company profits reflect increased profits on crude oil and natural gas, as well. In the quarter century between 1974 and 1999, major oil companies had a higher return on equity than all manufacturing only twice. Since 2000, their return on equity has exceeded all manufacturing six of seven years, and every year since 2002. Excess profits earned by oil companies in 2003-2006 are about $200 billion (see Exhibit 11).

www.consumersunion.org...

Explain the logic to me as i just can't find any reason to suspect that the worlds oil reserves/production are in terminal decline!

Stellar