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To what extent does the Sun's variability affect and/or cause global climate change?
For decades, scientists have tried to understand the link between winds and temperature and the Sun and its cycles. There were tell-tale signs of a connection. For instance, the Little Ice Age recorded in Europe between 1550 and 1700 happened during a time of very low solar activity.
Solar scientists have long known that solar variability changes the distribution of energy in the Earth's atmosphere. During the Sun's 11-year cycle, from solar maximum through solar minimum, the energy released by the Sun changes by only about a tenth of a percent. New studies have clarified that when the solar cycle is at a maximum, it puts out a larger percentage of high-energy radiation, which increases the amount of ozone in the upper atmosphere. The increased ozone warms the upper atmosphere and the warm air affects winds all the way from the stratosphere (that region of the atmosphere that extends from about 6 to 30 miles high) to the Earth's surface. The change in wind strength and direction creates different climate patterns around the globe.
However, according to Drew Shindell, a climate researcher from NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, NY, the most recent studies have confirmed that changing levels of energy from the Sun are not significant enough to be a major cause of global warming: "...the solar increases do not have the ability to cause large global temperature increases...greenhouse gases are indeed playing the dominant role..." The Sun is once again less bright as we approach solar minimum, yet global warming continues."
Human activities are increasingly altering the Earth's climate. These effects add to natural influences that have been present over Earth's history. Scientific evidence strongly indicates that natural influences cannot explain the rapid increase in global near-surface temperatures observed during the second half of the 20th century.
Human impacts on the climate system include increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (e.g., carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons and their substitutes, methane, nitrous oxide, etc.), air pollution, increasing concentrations of airborne particles, and land alteration. A particular concern is that atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide may be rising faster than at any time in Earth's history, except possibly following rare events like impacts from large extraterrestrial objects.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have increased since the mid-1700s through fossil fuel burning and changes in land use, with more than 80% of this increase occurring since 1900. Moreover, research indicates that increased levels of carbon dioxide will remain in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years. It is virtually certain that increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will cause global surface climate to be warmer.
The complexity of the climate system makes it difficult to predict some aspects of human-induced climate change: exactly how fast it will occur, exactly how much it will change, and exactly where those changes will take place. In contrast, scientists are confident in other predictions. Mid-continent warming will be greater than over the oceans, and there will be greater warming at higher latitudes. Some polar and glacial ice will melt, and the oceans will warm; both effects will contribute to higher sea levels. The hydrologic cycle will change and intensify, leading to changes in water supply as well as flood and drought patterns. There will be considerable regional variations in the resulting impacts.
Originally posted by melatonin
Moreover, If solar activity was the predominate cause of the warming trend, we would find that warming is consistent throughout the atmosphere. It would be warming from the thermosphere to the troposphere. However, it isn't.
Sun more active than for a millennium - 02 November 2003 -
The sun is more active now than it has been for the past millennium. A European team of researchers reconstructed past sunspot activity from radioactive particles found in ice cores in Greenland and Antarctica. They found that there have been more sunspots since the 1940s than for the past 1150 years.
Originally posted by melatonin
The troposphere is warming and the stratosphere cooling, this was a prediction made in 1989 by Roble & Dickenson for the effects of GHG mediated warming. Indeed, we could say the sky is falling, as the higher levels of the atmosphere are actually contracting.
Originally posted by melatonin
The reason that the authors of this paper are responding to the GGWS, is because most people have little knowledge of the actual science, thus when presented with a sack of poop, containing obsolete, incorrect, and misleading information that thanks them for emitting, they have little chance of seeing it for what it is.
Originally posted by melatonin
This new paper is a review of all the recent data and contains new direct measures of solar activity. It shows that solar activity has actually decreased since the mid 1980s.
Originally posted by melatonin
As for planets warming in the solar system. Mars is likely warming due to dust storms. As pluto has warmed an estimated 2'C, we would notice if that was due to solar activity - think about it.
Is the solar system entering a nearby interstellar cloud
Authors: Vidal-Madjar, A.; Laurent, C.; Bruston, P.; Audouze, J.
Affiliation: AA(CNRS, Laboratoire de Physique Stellaire et Planetaire, Verrieres-le-Buisson, Essonne, France), AB(CNRS, Laboratoire de Physique Stellaire et Planetaire, Verrieres-le-Buisson, Essonne, France), AC(CNRS, Laboratoire de Physique Stellaire et Planetaire, Verrieres-le-Buisson, Essonne, France), AD(Meudon Observatoire, Hauts-de-Seine; Paris XI, Universite, Orsay, Essonne, France)
Publication: Astrophysical Journal, Part 1, vol. 223, July 15, 1978, p. 589-600. (ApJ Homepage)
Publication Date: 07/1978
Category: Astrophysics
Abstract
Observations indicating a hydrogen density gradient in the vicinity of the solar system are reviewed, particularly observations of an anisotropy in the far-UV flux around 950 A from the brightest and closest O and B stars as well as a variation in the local D/H ratio along the lines of sight to Alpha Cen and Alpha Aur. Possible mechanisms that may strongly affect the observed D/H ratio on a very small scale are considered, selected radiation pressure is proposed as the most likely mechanism for deuterium separation, and it is shown that this mechanism would be effective only if the density gradient of the nearby interstellar medium has remained stable for at least about 10 million years. This time scale is taken to imply the existence of a nearby (less than 2 pc distant) interstellar cloud. Observational arguments in favor of such a cloud are presented, and implications of the presence of a nearby cloud are discussed, including possible changes in terrestrial climate. It is suggested that the postulated interstellar cloud should encounter the solar system at some unspecified time in the 'near' future and might have a drastic influence on terrestrial climate in the next 10,000 years.
Originally posted by squiz
You are aware how flawed the current model is, correct?
There's more evidence suggesting the sun is electrical in nature.
The nuclear fusion is a by product of the magnetic fields heating.
I'm not sure what you mean by inward flowing electrons?
No one understands quantum mechanics otherwise there would be no mystery there.
Miss-interpretations of an already flawed model?
Solar particles gain speed up as they are ejected from the sun; this shows the presence of an electrical field. The corona is hotter, another by product of an electrical phenomena.
Also how can a nuclear fireball have black sun spots?
But hey, I'm no physicist
just have an interest, so if you could show any links to the contrary, I'd appreciate it.
Thanx.
Originally posted by Thousand
The current model isn't flawed, it's incomplete and not fully tested yet. Like many things in science (most things, actually) it's a work in progress. You should be immediately cautious of anyone with "all the answers".
Also, the temperature required to cause fusion without the benefit of the pressure caused by the sun's immense mass is astronomical, even when compared to the sun's already high temperatures. Magnetically confined fusion, such as that in the tokamak-style fusion reactor, requires temperatures upwards of 100 million K to maintain a stable fusion chain. Where are these temperatures on the sun?
No one understands quantum mechanics. Really. Shall I start a list of names? how about Max Planck? Jon von Neumann? Albert Einstein? Paul Dirac? Erwin Schrödinger? Niels Bohr? All famous men who pioneered the field.
They're not black. They only look that way because they are seen contrasted with the much brighter photosphere. They are actually blindingly bright.
Originally posted by squiz
Although wiki is a good resource when it comes to these things it's only more of the same institutionalized rhetoric.
It's an alternative theory; of course it's going to have its opponents. And it goes a long way to explain and predict other astronomical phenomena. It may not be totally correct but it has value I think and shouldn't be brushed aside lightly.
You seriously think the above new the workings of quantum mechanics? If so where's our unified theory?
The better scientists are the ones who dare to challenge have an imagination and a sense of exploration and discovery instead of thinking their teachers had all the answers.
The climate change thing is also clear evidence of how little we know. Ego, ignorance and greed at work in science. What a surprise. Stupid humans.
But I do appreciate your efforts, I'm not locked into any belief so I'm willing to consider.
Originally posted by Muaddib
That's a logical fallacy on your part, more so when it is true that there are GHG on Earth in the troposphere which would warm the troposphere more than any other layer of Earth's atmosphere.
Another fact of note, as I have already stated, is that changes in the Sun's activity will slowly heat up all our oceans and this would take decades to occur. The changes don't happen overnight as some people apparently think.
Unless the changes in the Sun are massive, the changes which have been occurring, such as the increase in Sunspots, will slowly heat up Earth as the oceans slowly absorb the increased heat.
We know as a matter of fact that the activity of the Sun has been increasing for the past few decades than for more than 1,000- 8,000 years, and several methods have been used to detect this increase activity.
Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years
S. K. Solanki1, I. G. Usoskin2, B. Kromer3, M. Schu¨ ssler1 & J. Beer4
....
Although the rarity of the current episode of high average sunspot numbers may indicate that the Sun has contributed to the unusual climate change during the twentieth century, we point out that solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominant cause of the strong warming during the past three decades.
The fact that the authors outright dismiss the fact that changes in the Sun influences the climate on Earth should be a big warning sign
There is considerable evidence for solar influence on the Earth’s pre industrial climate and the Sun may well have been a factor in post-industrial climate change in the first half of the last century. Here we show that over the past 20 years, all the trends in the Sun that could have had an influence on the Earth’s climate have been in the opposite direction to that required to explain the observed rise in global mean temperatures.
[14] The most interesting result of the ACRIM TSI time
series for climate change is the +0.05%/decade trend
between the minima separating solar cycles 21–22 and
22–23. [Willson, 1997] The trend over 9.75 years separating
the two minima appears to be significant relative to
uncertainty in the time series including comparison computations
(±0.001%/decade) and sensor degradation (less than
±0.005%/decade).
......................
[25] The ~0.05%/decade minimum-to-minimum trend
appears to be significant. If so it has profound implications
for both solar physics and climatology. For solar physics it
means that TSI variability can be caused by unknown
mechanisms other than the solar magnetic activity cycle.
Much longer time scales for TSI variations are therefore a possibility, which has obvious implications for solar forcing
of climate.
Still, as can be seen directly from the research I quoted, melatonin is lying once again since Wilson and Mordinov clearly state in their 2003 research that "they found an increase of +0.05% in the Solar minima for cycles 21-23"....
Nice try melatonin...
the inferred increase over the last 24 years, about 0.1%, is not enough to cause notable climate change.
Originally posted by melatonin
Like the scientists who authored the paper, I accept that a 0.05% increase at solar minima would not be so important for the current warming trend.
Originally posted by melatonin
....................
As for the switch to interstellar dust stuff, we've been through that before muaddib, the majority of evidence shows it would result in cooling of the climate. Some even suggest it may be involved in ice-ages. Sorry, it's actually warming.
Anyway, I think this thread is about the new evidence showing a fall in solar activity over the last 20 years...
Although the inferred increase of solar irradiance in 24 years, about 0.1 percent, is not enough to cause notable climate change, the trend would be important if maintained for a century or more. Satellite observations of total solar irradiance have obtained a long enough record (over 24 years) to begin looking for this effect.