H5N1 Bird Flu Spreading West, Mutating

H5N1 Bird Flu Spreading West, Mutating

science.monstersandcritics.com

'Until now, the studies have been primarily on samples from the Far East. Our study shows the virus is spreading west, and that there have been three separate introductions of H5N1 in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.'

(visit the link for the full news article)



[edit on 17-4-2007 by soficrow]

This article from CIDRAP News at the University of Minnesota is well worth reading:

Pandemic planners urged to tap grass roots

Governmental plans for an influenza pandemic are missing an important opportunity to improve US preparedness, according to two new reports: They are not reaching out to communities and grass-roots groups that could refine plan details and increase public support.

Meanwhile, ad hoc communities and preparedness alliances are forming—in the real world and online—with minimal input from government planners. And, confirming the reports' concerns, some members of those communities say they have networks and resources to offer to official efforts, but are frustrated by their inability to make themselves heard.

The first report, "Community Engagement: Leadership Tool for Catastrophic Health Events," was published Apr 4 by the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC). The report, which sums up the findings of a 27-member panel convened by the center during 2006, asserts that official planning incorrectly assumes the public will panic and create a "secondary disaster."

..."If you just define citizen preparedness as stockpiling, you are only giving people limited options," she said. "There is a wide range of contributions that citizens can make, to prepare for, respond to, and recover from extreme events."

Also see: National Academies report "Citizen Engagement in Emergency Planning for a Flu Pandemic"

Pandemic planning proceeds.

Purdue University prepares for potential pandemic

The committee, among other things, is deciding how Purdue would feed its students if no mass gatherings are allowed, the manner in which a potential quarantine would be handled, how health services would be staffed around the clock, how buildings would be maintained, and how to maintain animal care and continue research projects.

All university offices have been asked to identify essential personnel who would need access to campus in the event of a quarantine.

The committee said the Internet would be an important source of information for faculty, staff and students and the university`s Office of Information Technology is developing plans for redundant servers.

***

BOMA Canada Launches Pandemic Planning Guide and Information Site

To assist Canadian commercial real estate companies in making pandemic planning an integral part of their disaster preparedness plans and policies, the Building Owners and Managers Association of Canada (BOMA Canada) and a Task Force of key industry leaders have been proactively engaged in developing the just-released comprehensive Pandemic
Planning Guide for Commercial Buildings.

In addition to the new Pandemic Planning Guide for Commercial Buildings, BOMA Canada has established a publicly-accessible Pandemic Planning Site for Canadian Commercial Real Estate, available at www.bomacanada-pandemic.ca. The
site, which contains numerous industry and government resource links, provides a wealth of important information and will continue to be updated regularly.

The Pandemic Planning Guide for Commercial Buildings is now available for free download from this site.

Also see:

BOMA Canada Pandemic Planning

Business Continuity Pandemic Planning Guide pdf

Planning Toolkit for Commercial Buildings pdf

On another note, anyone care to read between the lines of Munich Re's pandemic coverage reinsurance report?

Re: Report from Munich Re, an international reinsurance corporation

"Although the threat of a pandemic this winter had mainly disappeared from the media due to the almost complete absence of instances of bird flu in Europe, experts are largely in agreement that the next pandemic is sure to come," Munich Re noted in its recent publication, Topics. "The only question [is] when and how extensive it will be."

"On the insurance side, Munich Re is no more exposed than in the case of larger natural catastrophes."

Munich Re noted that on the investments side, it is assumed that a pandemic along the lines of that outlined by the World Health Organization (WHO) "would impact the global economy and the capital markets only for a certain period of time."

[edit on 17-4-2007 by soficrow]

Could this be the year of bird flu? We were made aware of this threat a couple years ago but people seem to have largely forgotten it. You never know if it could mutate to a strain easily transmitted between humans, and I believe the estimates place the possible death toll anywhere from 1 million to several hundred million. Scary stuff.

Originally posted by Vipassana

Could this be the year of bird flu?

That's the big question - and I just don't know. ...Maybe.

Authorities are quietly gearing up - but keeping a lid on to "avoid panic."

The raging backroom controversy is about the fact that early quarantines are most effective to stop the spread - but international corporations emphatically do NOT want trade and travel restrictions.

So - quarantine will probably come too late to do much good, and will be imposed only on private citizens - but not trade - which will ensure the pandemic's rapid spread.

But how do you quarantine in todays fast paced world of travel?

I'm not sure how long it takes for symptoms to show up, but it could be days, and its defenitely more than 5 hours. This is plenty of time for a someone to fly a plane across a nation, drive to a different state, etc... All takes is one person to get infected and then get on a plane to an underdeveloped country and all hell breaks loose.

Did u guys hear about the approved vaccine for bird flu? the US only bought 13 million doses which is good 4 lik only 6.5 million ppl cuz the doses r given in twos. To kno more about it, go to myt thread on it. Here's the link:www.abovetopsecret.com...
Caringly yours,
Hachi

Originally posted by Vipassana
But how do you quarantine in todays fast paced world of travel?

It is essential to 'quarantine' poultry and restrict trade in poultry based products - there is NO doubt that trade is spreading H5N1 bird flu far more efficiently than 'migratory birds.'

Also, H5N1 has multiple vectors. For example, insects like flies carry the H5N1 virus, so trade needs to be much more restrictive.

Won't happen tho. Interferes with profits.

...In people, 'social distancing' and other measures need to be implemented at the first sign of a pandemic.

Studies show that cities that implemented quarantine measures (closed schools, large gatherings etc) early and kept them going later had the least deaths and illness.

All takes is one person to get infected and then get on a plane to an underdeveloped country and all hell breaks loose.

Yup.





Hachi -

The "new" vaccine recently approved by the FDA is only effective in about 40% of people vaccinated - plus it is not targeted to the -as yet non-existent- pandemic strain.

The new technology that grows vaccine on insect cells promises to be quick and efficient once the pandemic strain emerges.


Thanks, sofi

haha no prob=] Hmm.. if the virus is constantly changing, wouldnt it be easier to mutate and go from human to human??

Originally posted by hachiban08

if the virus is constantly changing, wouldnt it be easier to mutate and go from human to human??

Not sure what you're asking here. Or what you think my point was...???

FYI - vaccines need to target specific strains; the pandemic strain has not yet emerged; the "new" vaccine you referred to is only 40% effective for existent strains - so it probably will be much less effective with the yet-to-appear pandemic strain.

regarding vaccines i know that they are targeted against specific strains but since these strains mutated from each other there must be some commonality between them So why dont they target that commen gene so it can be effective agaisnt multiple stains....Now that i think about it thats prob not possible but just an idea

Originally posted by ImpliedChaos

since these strains mutated from each other there must be some commonality between them

That's what the manufacturers are banking on - but it doesn't work very well.

So why dont they target that commen gene so it can be effective agaisnt multiple stains....

Because the real problem is not with a gene, but protein(s) - most likely prion(s) hitchhiking on the virus - and genes are required for infectivity.

I hope this doesnt sound sarcastic or nething but, Sofi, U would make a really good research professor^_^v Thanx oh lol but i was saying, u kno how viruses change like all the time, how long would it take usually for something to mutate? That was what i was asking

Originally posted by hachiban08

u kno how viruses change like all the time, how long would it take usually for something to mutate? That was what i was asking

Prions "mutate" on exposure to new conditions (cells, temperature change, etc). Some bacteria mutate and evolve in under 10 minutes. Viruses seem to mutate more rapidly than other microbes.

The real question is - How long does it take for a microbe to mutate into a rapidly contagious strain (to humans)?

The answer - Unknown - there are too many factors involved to predict contagious mutation accurately.

RE my statement above, CORRECTION:

"the real problem is not with a gene, but protein(s) - most likely prion(s) hitchhiking on the virus - so genes are NOT required for infectivity."

...because the infectivity results from the prion.

ooooooh...i get yah now=] Thank you=] Ne new discoveries in the world of Avian Influenza science? Ppl in my city r still shopping at Costco like crazy 4 toiletries n water n emergincy food kits. Hmm. i wonder what they kno

oh yah and i kno the shopping has to do w/ bird flu cuz the ppl usually r talking about it as i go down the aisles. One time, ppl were arguing over a case of water.

the chinese are with holding new strains of bird flu for whatever reason. Kinda makes one wonder if it was an experiment gone wrong?..

Originally posted by semperfoo
the chinese are with holding new strains of bird flu for whatever reason. Kinda makes one wonder if it was an experiment gone wrong?..

China, Indonesia and other nations are withholding bird flu samples pending an agreement that the knowledge will be used to benefit all people, not just to profit the rich.

The US, on the other hand, withholds samples to maximize corporate profit. See:

US Refuses To Share Important Flu Samples


.

been following this source and tracking the bird flu outbreaks, currently in the state of Sindh, Pakistan is burning the chickens that even have the slightest sign of the disease.

collaborated effort in place

Their study of 36 genomes of the virus collected from wild birds in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMA), and Vietnam confirms not only that the virus has very recently spread west from Asia, but that two of the new western strains have already independently combined, or "reassorted," to create a new strain.

Several samples also contained the mutation associated with the form of the "bird flu" that caused several human deaths in 2006. It is the virus's ability to rapidly mutate into a pathogen that may eventually be passed between humans that concerns health officials about a worldwide pandemic of H5N1 influenza

H5N1 & pigs

Pigs coinfected with avian and human influenza viruses can serve as “mixing vessels” for viral genetic material. Such mixing can result in the emergence of a new influenza virus

forget eating bacon after reading that one..yucck

www.ees.lanl.gov...

There are numerous nonpathogenic and unrelated influenza strains that currently reside in the avian and water reservoirs in North America that could serve as surrogates for H5N1. An additional factor that contributes to the spread of AIV is the evidence that AIV is highly persistent and stable in a water environment.

time to become a vegetarian

Originally posted by Eden

www.ees.lanl.gov...

There are numerous nonpathogenic and unrelated influenza strains that currently reside in the avian and water reservoirs in North America that could serve as surrogates for H5N1. An additional factor that contributes to the spread of AIV is the evidence that AIV is highly persistent and stable in a water environment.

time to become a vegetarian

Thank you Eden. Excellent links. This last one is new to me - a great find!

Here's what caught my attention:

Avian Influenza, Emerging diseases, Contaminants, and Environmental Stress

The spread of AIV among wild and agricultural birds already meets criteria of a pandemic within avian populations.

An additional factor that contributes to the spread of AIV is the evidence that AIV is highly persistent and stable in a water environment. It is clear that our understanding of this virus in many ways is outpaced by the speed with which AIV is spreading.

...the Rio Grande River will act as a corridor and haven for the newly emerging pathogens, avian influenza from the wintering grounds of waterfowl, and dengue fever following the river northward from Mexico.

[edit on 21-4-2007 by soficrow]