Its here...Tropical Storm Alpha

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TROPICAL STORM ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252005
2100Z SAT OCT 22 2005


AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IF EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE BAHAMAS GOVERNMENT HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND
TURKS AND CAICOS.

A TROPICAL STROM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE
OF HAITI.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 68.9W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 68.9W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 68.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.3N 70.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.8N 71.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.6N 71.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 38.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 68.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

How many more named storms do you think we're going to have this year. There is still 39 days left of the hurricane season.

I'm new to hurricanes.
How are they named? From A to Z? Z to A?

For 2005 we had a list of 21 names for storms:
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Dennis
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katrina
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rita
Stan
Tammy
Vince
Wilma,

order of the greek alphabet and the names that will be used if we pass Alpha:

Beta
Gamma
Delta
Epsilon
Zeta
Eta
Theta
Iota
Kappa
Lambda
Mu
Nu
Xi
Omicron
Pi
Rho
Sigma
Tau
Upsilon
Phi
Chi
Psi
Omega


[edit on 22-10-2005 by Nathabeanz]

Wait, so we had that many hurricanes this year? (Arlene to Wilma).

We've had 22 named storms this year. The most in recored history.

And 3 Catagory 5 storms in the Gulf of Mexico...another first I believe.
Also, Wilma was the most powerful storm in the Atlantic...ever.

Lotsa new stuff to consider.

Originally posted by Nathabeanz
For 2005 we had a list of 21 names for storms:
.
.
Ophelia
Philippe
Rita
Stan
Tammy
Vince
Wilma,

Why did they leave out Q and U?

Well... Hurricane's fuel is hot water and this is the second or first hottest year in recorded history.

NEWS: 2005 Most Likely To Be Second Hottest Year In Recorded History.

SCI/TECH: 2005 To Be The Hottest Year To Date.

2005 On Track to be the Hottest Year on Record

Is it possible for Wilma and Alpha to collide? Is it possible for them to merge?

It is possible for storms to merge. However It is unlikely that Wilma and Alpha will merge. I would think that Wilma would be too far North for Alpha to catch up.

now that wilmas eye is starting to exit the yucatan well actually be able to see if shes gonna get up and run again.

she sure took her sweet time going over cozumel and cancun.

this out--someone here thinks two storms may converge over Florida THIS WEEK!

Note--I do not endorse Bible Codes, just so you know.

[edit on 10/22/2005 by Amethyst]

Nathabeanz, Will Wilma and Alpha merge in the Atlantic?

Do you realize that more than 10% of all known category 5 hurricanes in the last 120 years occured THIS SEASON?

There have been 28 known Atlantic Cat 5s since 1886. There have only been more than one in the same season in 3 years- '60, '61, and '05. 2005 is the first time we had more than 2. 3 so far, and maybe still counting.

Also, the normal hurricane season is from June-November, but something disturbing happened in 2003. In 2003, Tropical Storm Ana formed in April, and Tropical Storm Odette formed in December, and Tropical Storm Peter formed in January.

According to Wikipedia, out of season storms are very rare. They have only formed in 2 years- 1954 and 2003. (although between those two years there were 5 off season storms- 1 early in each year, 1 late in 1954, 2 late in 2003.

Part of me thinks we might not go off-season this year since we didn't have one in April, but another part of me notes that only 3 of the 28 Cat 5s every recorded have started in October- virtually all of them were in august and september, and strangely enough, several of them occurred in low-activity seasons. I can't help wondering, if we can have a Cat 5 this late in such an active season, could we see the season go overtime again???


I would also like to point out one more thing. I'm not saying that weather manipulation isn't happening, but it should be noted that a pattern has been observed in Hurricane activity. long periods of inactivity, punctuated by extremely active seasons, seem to run in cycles. The least active seasons on records were almost all in the 20s and 30s, then there were notable seasons in the early 60s. It was quiet again from 70s up until 94 or 95 (Hurricane Andrew formed in August, and that was the first storm of that season). then it got rough again in this decade. It seems like you hit a 5-10 year hotstreak every 30 years or so the way I see it. (others have suggested more like a 50 year cycle).

Question.... Now that Alpha has been used can it be used next year?

I heard someone say that they'd probably do Alpha 05 for this year, Alpha 06 for the next....