Israeli strikes on southern Gaza city of Rafah kill 22, mostly children, as US advances aid package

originally posted by: gortex
killing tens of thousands of "non combatants" in a matter of months smacks of either incompetence or criminality

1 - That's not unheard of in wars.

2 - Criminality .. sure ... HAMAS and the 'palestinians' criminality ... since they are the ones who started this mess, and they are the ones who commit terrorism against Israel and hide behind children, and they are the ones who could have ended this months ago but refuse to.

Just a reminder about the fact that civilians die in war ...
casualties in recent wars ...

World War II - 50,000,000 Dead

World War I - 40,000,000 Dead

Vietnam War - 1,353,000 Dead

Korea War - 525,000 Dead, over 1 Million Missing

Iraq War - Over 1 Million Associated Deaths

Iran/Iraq War - 500,000 Iraqi dead and 750,000 Iranian dead

originally posted by: Dalamax
Sure. Non combatants are allowed to be slain willy nilly in a combat zone.

They aren't being slain willy nilly.

They are being killed because Hamas and the 'palestinian' supporters attack Israel and then hide behind the civilians as cover. They are being killed ON PURPOSE by Hamas and the 'palestinians'. They love big civilian death numbers. It's good for their propaganda that useful idiots in the west just suck up.

a reply to: FlyersFan

Just a reminder about the fact that civilians die in war ...
casualties in recent wars ...

Apples and oranges , Israel's assault on Gaza has taken place over a shorter time period in a smaller area with fewer available targets.

Genocide isn't a numbers game.

Substantiality is an important but misunderstood part of the concept of genocide. One problem is that substantiality holds different meanings within law and sociology. Legally, substantiality is connected to the difficulty of proving there is “intention to destroy” in the absence of a specific plan.

Substantiality in this sense is a marker of the level of death and destruction required to support an inference of intent. Sociologically, substantiality is connected to popular understandings of genocide that link the gravity of the crime to the volume of destruction.

Substantiality in this latter sense has been problematized by scholars who point out that genocide does not necessarily entail a greater level of harm and destruction than other atrocities, which might fall under the label of war crimes or crimes against humanity.

This article examines the concept of substantiality with a view to illuminating the tension that exists between legal and sociological understandings of genocide. The article uses the alleged genocide of the Rohingya in Myanmar as a case study to demonstrate the complexity and contradictions of legal and sociological applications of the concept of substantiality.

The article concludes that problems with substantiality reflect deeper problems with the recognition and articulation of the particular wrong inherent in the crime of genocide
www.researchgate.net...

History and the courts will decide.

originally posted by: gortex
Apples and oranges , Israel's assault on Gaza has taken place over a shorter time period in a smaller area with fewer available targets.

Nope. It's exactly the same.
And the death ratio in the Gaza war is much lower than other wars.
Even using the hyperinflated fake Hamas death totals they give out.
So the 'genocide' rhetoric fails.

Civilian Deaths in Gaza Relatively Low

Even before the recent dramatic reduction in civilian deaths, Israel’s military actions produced far fewer deaths and a far lower ratio of civilian-to-combatant deaths than in any comparable urban warfare. This is especially significant considering the reality that Hamas deliberately increases civilian deaths by using women and children as human shields and by hiding its military personnel and equipment among civilians. The current ratio of civilian-to-combatant is well below two-to-one, which compares extremely favorably with ratios achieved by other Western democracies in urban warfare.

And a reminder ... the Gaza death totals are put out by HAMAS and have been deemed totally unreliable by many reputable sources. No one knows how many people have died in Gaza. We only know that it is all the fault of Hamas and the 'palestinians' since they caused this mess and they could have ended it months ago but refuse to do so.

Washington Institute - Gaza Fatality Data Has Become Completely Unreliable

Given the discrepancies in official Palestinian counts and their growing reliance on questionable data from media reports, the credibility gaps revealed by a previous Washington Institute study have become yawning chasms.

a reply to: FlyersFan

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy is a pro-Israel American think tank based in Washington, D.C.
en.wikipedia.org...

a reply to: gortex

So? Their report is accurate. You want it from other sources? No problem.
The Gaza death numbers are completely unreliable. The math says so.

Abraham Wyner, a professor of Statistics and Data Science at the Wharton School, has done an analysis on the claims by Hamas about the death totals. And his conclusion is that the numbers are bogus.

Hamas’ Gaza death toll stats are pure fiction

Wyner’s critique is damning: The daily reported death tolls rise in a straight line, about 270 a day — which makes zero sense, since in any war, some days see far greater fighting and bombing than others.

Plus there’s no correlation between the reported numbers of children and women slain each day (when most kids are surely near their mothers) or between the numbers of women and men.

Also, the ministry claims that 70% of the dead are women and children, while Hamas admits to losing 6,000 of its (male) combatants — which would mean that almost no male civilians have been killed.

The obvious conclusion is that the ministry is just (clumsily) making it all up. It’s definitely not presenting real info gathered from across Gaza.

The graphs and the math are at the link -

Hamas's Gaza death toll is exaggerated or faked, statistics expert claims

A professor of Statistics and Data Science at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, Wyner provided a detailed analysis of the data from the Gaza Health Ministry, which showed that they had, at the very minimum, been doctored – and at worst, completely faked.

Wyner first tackles the total reported deaths, which he shows climbed by 270 plus or minus about 15% every day. This, he says, is statistically impossible: "There should be days with twice the average or more and others with half or less." "The graph of total deaths by date is increasing with almost metronomical linearity," he says – meaning at a regular rate, like a metronome.

"Most likely, the Hamas ministry settled on a daily total arbitrarily," he concludes. "We know this because the daily totals increase too consistently to be real. Then they assigned about 70% of the total to be women and children, splitting that amount randomly from day to day. Then they in-filled the number of men as set by the predetermined total. This explains all the data observed."

He also highlights that by Hamas's own admission, 6,000 Hamas fighters have been killed, which if combined with Hamas's data on deaths, shows that 20% of the total deaths are combatant while 70% are women and children. This implies that "Israel is somehow not killing noncombatant men, or else Hamas is claiming that almost all the men in Gaza are Hamas fighters."

In conclusion, he says, "The truth can’t yet be known and probably never will be. The total civilian casualty count is likely to be extremely overstated.

How Hamas "Gaza Health Ministry" Fakes Casualty Numbers

Here’s the problem with this data: The numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children, and the majority may be Hamas fighters.

Not only do official Palestinian death counts fail to differentiate soldiers from children, but Hamas also blames all deaths on Israel even if caused by Hamas’ own misfired rockets, accidental explosions, deliberate killings, or internal battles. One group of researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health compared Hamas reports to data on UNRWA workers. They argued that because the death rates were approximately similar, Hamas’ numbers must not be inflated. But their argument relied on a crucial and unverified assumption: that UNRWA workers are not disproportionately more likely to be killed than the general population. That premise exploded when it was uncovered that a sizable fraction of UNRWA workers are affiliated with Hamas. Some were even exposed as having participated in the Oct. 7 massacre itself.

The truth can’t yet be known and probably never will be. The total civilian casualty count is likely to be extremely overstated. Israel estimates that at least 12,000 fighters have been killed. If that number proves to be even reasonably accurate, then the ratio of noncombatant casualties to combatants is remarkably low: at most 1.4 to 1 and perhaps as low as 1 to 1. By historical standards of urban warfare, where combatants are embedded above and below into civilian population centers, this is a remarkable and successful effort to prevent unnecessary loss of life while fighting an implacable enemy that protects itself with civilians.

a reply to: gortex

And more from other sources ...

Now Hamas admits that 1/3 of the numbers they have given out as 'dead civilians' can't be verified in any way and they may even be made up (no surprise there).

Federation for the Defense of Democracies

The Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health said on April 6 that it had “incomplete data” for 11,371 of the 33,091 Palestinian fatalities it claims to have documented. In a statistical report, the ministry notes that it considers an individual record to be incomplete if it is missing any of the following key data points: identity number, full name, date of birth, or date of death. The health ministry also released a report on April 3 that acknowledged the presence of incomplete data but did not define what it meant by “incomplete.” In that earlier report, the ministry acknowledged the incompleteness of 12,263 records. It is unclear why, after just three more days, the number fell to 11,371 — a decrease of more than 900 records.

Prior to its admissions of incomplete data, the health ministry asserted that the information in more than 15,000 fatality records had stemmed from “reliable media sources.” However, the ministry never identified the sources in question and Gaza has no independent media.

“The sudden shifts in the ministry’s reporting methods suggest it is scrambling to prevent exposure of its shoddy work. For months, U.S. media have taken for granted that the ministry’s top-line figure for casualties was reliable enough to include in daily updates on the war. Even President Biden has cited its numbers. Now we’re seeing that a third or more of the ministry’s data may be incomplete at best — and fictional at worst.” — David Adesnik, Senior Fellow and Director of Research

“It is important to recognize that Hamas is deeply invested in shaping the narrative that emerges from Gaza, particularly regarding the number of casualties in the war. Moreover, this control of data extends beyond the statistics provided by the Hamas-controlled health ministry, as there is also a deliberate effort to downplay the number of terrorists who have been killed by Israel in the war, potentially numbering more than 10,000.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst at FDD’s Long War Journal

Wall Street Journal - Hamas Numbers Game with "Civilian" Death Counts and Casualty Data

Foundation for the Defense of Democracies - 5 Things to Know About the Hamas Run Gaza "Health Ministry'

The recent Al-Ahli incident further undermines the ministry’s credibility
On October 16, 2023, media outlets around the world reported rapid claims made by the Gaza Health Ministry that Israeli missiles struck the al-Ahli hospital, killing around 500 Palestinians. The U.S. intelligence community assessed that a Palestinian rocket likely caused the damage and estimated that 100 to 300 people died at the hospital, while a European official put that figure at below 50. The Washington Post and Wall Street Journal, among others, later revised their coverage and reported that evidence strongly favored a Palestinian rocket as the cause of the blast. Relatedly, the ministry’s data includes Palestinians killed by other Palestinians. In August 2022 clashes, for example, errant Palestinian rockets caused one-third of the reported Palestinian fatalities. The Israel Defense Forces estimated that nearly one-fifth of the Palestinian rockets fired at Israel during that conflict malfunctioned or otherwise fell short of their target.

The Gaza Health Ministry death tolls do not distinguish between civilians and combatants

The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count. Its casualty figures also do not identify the circumstances of death, making it impossible to identify terrorists who died in the initial assault on Israel or during the Israeli defensive operations that followed. Within days of the gruesome attacks of October 7, 2023, Israeli officials reported they recovered the bodies of 1,500 terrorists in Israel. The Health Ministry has not clarified whether or not these individuals are counted on its registry. Hamas’s casualty count might also include Palestinian minors and adults aiding Hamas fighters in an auxiliary capacity. Analysis from The New York Times during the 2014 Israel-Hamas war found that men ages 20 to 29 were the most overrepresented among the dead. Hamas also employs fighters above and below that range, but this is a strong indication that Israeli attacks targeted and succeeded in eliminating Hamas terrorists.

Estimated 12000 dead Hamas.
And Hamas will claim them all as civilian "palestinian' deaths.
Probably fake call them 'women and children' too.

IDF Says 12000 Hamas Fighters Killed in Gaza War

The Israel Defense Forces said Monday that troops have killed some 12,000 of Hamas’s estimated 30,000 gunmen in the Gaza Strip since war erupted on October 7, after a Qatar-based official for the terror group claimed it had lost half that number — some 6,000 fighters — during the four-month-old conflict.

Hamas is also believed to have thousands of operatives who are seriously wounded and unable to fight.

originally posted by: FlyersFan
Estimated 12000 dead Hamas.
And Hamas will claim them all as civilian "palestinian' deaths.
Probably fake call them 'women and children' too.

IDF Says 12000 Hamas Fighters Killed in Gaza War

The Israel Defense Forces said Monday that troops have killed some 12,000 of Hamas’s estimated 30,000 gunmen in the Gaza Strip since war erupted on October 7, after a Qatar-based official for the terror group claimed it had lost half that number — some 6,000 fighters — during the four-month-old conflict.

Hamas is also believed to have thousands of operatives who are seriously wounded and unable to fight.

As if IDF is a reliable source of information...

originally posted by: gortex
a reply to: FlyersFan

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy is a pro-Israel American think tank based in Washington, D.C.
en.wikipedia.org...

Which pushes Israeli propaganda in the US

originally posted by: FlyersFan
a reply to: gortex

So? Their report is accurate. You want it from other sources? No problem.
The Gaza death numbers are completely unreliable. The math says so.

Abraham Wyner, a professor of Statistics and Data Science at the Wharton School, has done an analysis on the claims by Hamas about the death totals. And his conclusion is that the numbers are bogus.

Hamas’ Gaza death toll stats are pure fiction

Wyner’s critique is damning: The daily reported death tolls rise in a straight line, about 270 a day — which makes zero sense, since in any war, some days see far greater fighting and bombing than others.

Plus there’s no correlation between the reported numbers of children and women slain each day (when most kids are surely near their mothers) or between the numbers of women and men.

Also, the ministry claims that 70% of the dead are women and children, while Hamas admits to losing 6,000 of its (male) combatants — which would mean that almost no male civilians have been killed.

The obvious conclusion is that the ministry is just (clumsily) making it all up. It’s definitely not presenting real info gathered from across Gaza.

The graphs and the math are at the link -

Hamas's Gaza death toll is exaggerated or faked, statistics expert claims

A professor of Statistics and Data Science at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, Wyner provided a detailed analysis of the data from the Gaza Health Ministry, which showed that they had, at the very minimum, been doctored – and at worst, completely faked.

Wyner first tackles the total reported deaths, which he shows climbed by 270 plus or minus about 15% every day. This, he says, is statistically impossible: "There should be days with twice the average or more and others with half or less." "The graph of total deaths by date is increasing with almost metronomical linearity," he says – meaning at a regular rate, like a metronome.

"Most likely, the Hamas ministry settled on a daily total arbitrarily," he concludes. "We know this because the daily totals increase too consistently to be real. Then they assigned about 70% of the total to be women and children, splitting that amount randomly from day to day. Then they in-filled the number of men as set by the predetermined total. This explains all the data observed."

He also highlights that by Hamas's own admission, 6,000 Hamas fighters have been killed, which if combined with Hamas's data on deaths, shows that 20% of the total deaths are combatant while 70% are women and children. This implies that "Israel is somehow not killing noncombatant men, or else Hamas is claiming that almost all the men in Gaza are Hamas fighters."

In conclusion, he says, "The truth can’t yet be known and probably never will be. The total civilian casualty count is likely to be extremely overstated.

How Hamas "Gaza Health Ministry" Fakes Casualty Numbers

Here’s the problem with this data: The numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children, and the majority may be Hamas fighters.

Not only do official Palestinian death counts fail to differentiate soldiers from children, but Hamas also blames all deaths on Israel even if caused by Hamas’ own misfired rockets, accidental explosions, deliberate killings, or internal battles. One group of researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health compared Hamas reports to data on UNRWA workers. They argued that because the death rates were approximately similar, Hamas’ numbers must not be inflated. But their argument relied on a crucial and unverified assumption: that UNRWA workers are not disproportionately more likely to be killed than the general population. That premise exploded when it was uncovered that a sizable fraction of UNRWA workers are affiliated with Hamas. Some were even exposed as having participated in the Oct. 7 massacre itself.

The truth can’t yet be known and probably never will be. The total civilian casualty count is likely to be extremely overstated. Israel estimates that at least 12,000 fighters have been killed. If that number proves to be even reasonably accurate, then the ratio of noncombatant casualties to combatants is remarkably low: at most 1.4 to 1 and perhaps as low as 1 to 1. By historical standards of urban warfare, where combatants are embedded above and below into civilian population centers, this is a remarkable and successful effort to prevent unnecessary loss of life while fighting an implacable enemy that protects itself with civilians.

Nobody knows how many have been killed but there are far too many as accepted by all sides and even the most senior diplomat in the US has admitted it repeatedly.

www.nytimes.com...

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said on Friday that “far too many Palestinians have been killed” in Gaza, in the latest indication that the Biden administration is growing increasingly concerned about the civilian death toll under Israel’s bombardment and ground invasion.

It refutes your claim. I don't know why you keep trying to convince the audience there haven't been many civilian deaths when Antony Blinken says the opposite.

originally posted by: FlyersFan

originally posted by: gortex
killing tens of thousands of "non combatants" in a matter of months smacks of either incompetence or criminality

1 - That's not unheard of in wars.

2 - Criminality .. sure ... HAMAS and the 'palestinians' criminality ... since they are the ones who started this mess, and they are the ones who commit terrorism against Israel and hide behind children, and they are the ones who could have ended this months ago but refuse to.

Just a reminder about the fact that civilians die in war ...
casualties in recent wars ...

World War II - 50,000,000 Dead

World War I - 40,000,000 Dead

Vietnam War - 1,353,000 Dead

Korea War - 525,000 Dead, over 1 Million Missing

Iraq War - Over 1 Million Associated Deaths

Iran/Iraq War - 500,000 Iraqi dead and 750,000 Iranian dead

Are you trying again to justify the murders of thousands of innocent Palestinians?

Just because prole die in the war it doesn't make their deaths justifiable. We know Israel has committed a range of crimes for which they are likely to be arrested in the future. They won't be able to leave Israel. Not even the US will house them in the future.

originally posted by: LarwtB

Are you trying again to justify the murders of thousands of innocent Palestinians?

If Hamas that sanctioned murder, rape, torture, kidnapping on Oct 7 would have surrendered instead of using human shields, they would still be alive.

originally posted by: FlyersFan

originally posted by: Dalamax
Sure. Non combatants are allowed to be slain willy nilly in a combat zone.

They aren't being slain willy nilly.

They are being killed because Hamas and the 'palestinian' supporters attack Israel and then hide behind the civilians as cover. They are being killed ON PURPOSE by Hamas and the 'palestinians'. They love big civilian death numbers. It's good for their propaganda that useful idiots in the west just suck up.

What a load of hooey. The ‘Israelies’ are just lazy and don’t want to seek out and close with the enemy, kill or capture them.

Instead they lob bombs. Weak, but what can really be expected from arabs who can’t accept themselves for what they are?

The sooner they realise who they truly are and assimilate into their homeland the quicker the hatchet can be buried and this cowards conflict can be sorted out.

At the moment their delusions of exceptionalism are being fed by the narrative.

originally posted by: Dalamax

originally posted by: FlyersFan

originally posted by: Dalamax
Sure. Non combatants are allowed to be slain willy nilly in a combat zone.

They aren't being slain willy nilly.

They are being killed because Hamas and the 'palestinian' supporters attack Israel and then hide behind the civilians as cover. They are being killed ON PURPOSE by Hamas and the 'palestinians'. They love big civilian death numbers. It's good for their propaganda that useful idiots in the west just suck up.

What a load of hooey. The ‘Israelies’ are just lazy and don’t want to seek out and close with the enemy, kill or capture them.

Instead they lob bombs. Weak, but what can really be expected from arabs who can’t accept themselves for what they are?

The sooner they realise who they truly are and assimilate into their homeland the quicker the hatchet can be buried and this cowards conflict can be sorted out.

At the moment their delusions of exceptionalism are being fed by the narrative.

Any they commit war crimes one after the other.

originally posted by: LarwtB

originally posted by: FlyersFan
a reply to: gortex

So? Their report is accurate. You want it from other sources? No problem.
The Gaza death numbers are completely unreliable. The math says so.

Abraham Wyner, a professor of Statistics and Data Science at the Wharton School, has done an analysis on the claims by Hamas about the death totals. And his conclusion is that the numbers are bogus.

Hamas’ Gaza death toll stats are pure fiction

Wyner’s critique is damning: The daily reported death tolls rise in a straight line, about 270 a day — which makes zero sense, since in any war, some days see far greater fighting and bombing than others.

Plus there’s no correlation between the reported numbers of children and women slain each day (when most kids are surely near their mothers) or between the numbers of women and men.

Also, the ministry claims that 70% of the dead are women and children, while Hamas admits to losing 6,000 of its (male) combatants — which would mean that almost no male civilians have been killed.

The obvious conclusion is that the ministry is just (clumsily) making it all up. It’s definitely not presenting real info gathered from across Gaza.

The graphs and the math are at the link -

Hamas's Gaza death toll is exaggerated or faked, statistics expert claims

A professor of Statistics and Data Science at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, Wyner provided a detailed analysis of the data from the Gaza Health Ministry, which showed that they had, at the very minimum, been doctored – and at worst, completely faked.

Wyner first tackles the total reported deaths, which he shows climbed by 270 plus or minus about 15% every day. This, he says, is statistically impossible: "There should be days with twice the average or more and others with half or less." "The graph of total deaths by date is increasing with almost metronomical linearity," he says – meaning at a regular rate, like a metronome.

"Most likely, the Hamas ministry settled on a daily total arbitrarily," he concludes. "We know this because the daily totals increase too consistently to be real. Then they assigned about 70% of the total to be women and children, splitting that amount randomly from day to day. Then they in-filled the number of men as set by the predetermined total. This explains all the data observed."

He also highlights that by Hamas's own admission, 6,000 Hamas fighters have been killed, which if combined with Hamas's data on deaths, shows that 20% of the total deaths are combatant while 70% are women and children. This implies that "Israel is somehow not killing noncombatant men, or else Hamas is claiming that almost all the men in Gaza are Hamas fighters."

In conclusion, he says, "The truth can’t yet be known and probably never will be. The total civilian casualty count is likely to be extremely overstated.

How Hamas "Gaza Health Ministry" Fakes Casualty Numbers

Here’s the problem with this data: The numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children, and the majority may be Hamas fighters.

Not only do official Palestinian death counts fail to differentiate soldiers from children, but Hamas also blames all deaths on Israel even if caused by Hamas’ own misfired rockets, accidental explosions, deliberate killings, or internal battles. One group of researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health compared Hamas reports to data on UNRWA workers. They argued that because the death rates were approximately similar, Hamas’ numbers must not be inflated. But their argument relied on a crucial and unverified assumption: that UNRWA workers are not disproportionately more likely to be killed than the general population. That premise exploded when it was uncovered that a sizable fraction of UNRWA workers are affiliated with Hamas. Some were even exposed as having participated in the Oct. 7 massacre itself.

The truth can’t yet be known and probably never will be. The total civilian casualty count is likely to be extremely overstated. Israel estimates that at least 12,000 fighters have been killed. If that number proves to be even reasonably accurate, then the ratio of noncombatant casualties to combatants is remarkably low: at most 1.4 to 1 and perhaps as low as 1 to 1. By historical standards of urban warfare, where combatants are embedded above and below into civilian population centers, this is a remarkable and successful effort to prevent unnecessary loss of life while fighting an implacable enemy that protects itself with civilians.

Nobody knows how many have been killed but there are far too many as accepted by all sides and even the most senior diplomat in the US has admitted it repeatedly.

www.nytimes.com...

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said on Friday that “far too many Palestinians have been killed” in Gaza, in the latest indication that the Biden administration is growing increasingly concerned about the civilian death toll under Israel’s bombardment and ground invasion.

It refutes your claim. I don't know why you keep trying to convince the audience there haven't been many civilian deaths when Antony Blinken says the opposite.

Hey, welcome to ATS! Word of advice, try not to be a douche bag or you might get banned, it happens to some real douche bags and it's always a good rule NOT to be that guy.

Now, can you give a rought estimate of how many killed in GAZA were HAMAS and other terrorist groups waging war against Israel? It will help to grasp the sheer horror of what's going on with the children. Afterall, it's all about the kids, right?

originally posted by: network dude
Hey, welcome to ATS!

That's the alienborg/Leviathan4/Venkuish1 troll.
He's not new. He's been banned at least 20 times that I know of.
Twice just yesterday. An obsession. He needs help.

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: LarwtB

originally posted by: FlyersFan
a reply to: gortex

So? Their report is accurate. You want it from other sources? No problem.
The Gaza death numbers are completely unreliable. The math says so.

Abraham Wyner, a professor of Statistics and Data Science at the Wharton School, has done an analysis on the claims by Hamas about the death totals. And his conclusion is that the numbers are bogus.

Hamas’ Gaza death toll stats are pure fiction

Wyner’s critique is damning: The daily reported death tolls rise in a straight line, about 270 a day — which makes zero sense, since in any war, some days see far greater fighting and bombing than others.

Plus there’s no correlation between the reported numbers of children and women slain each day (when most kids are surely near their mothers) or between the numbers of women and men.

Also, the ministry claims that 70% of the dead are women and children, while Hamas admits to losing 6,000 of its (male) combatants — which would mean that almost no male civilians have been killed.

The obvious conclusion is that the ministry is just (clumsily) making it all up. It’s definitely not presenting real info gathered from across Gaza.

The graphs and the math are at the link -

Hamas's Gaza death toll is exaggerated or faked, statistics expert claims

A professor of Statistics and Data Science at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, Wyner provided a detailed analysis of the data from the Gaza Health Ministry, which showed that they had, at the very minimum, been doctored – and at worst, completely faked.

Wyner first tackles the total reported deaths, which he shows climbed by 270 plus or minus about 15% every day. This, he says, is statistically impossible: "There should be days with twice the average or more and others with half or less." "The graph of total deaths by date is increasing with almost metronomical linearity," he says – meaning at a regular rate, like a metronome.

"Most likely, the Hamas ministry settled on a daily total arbitrarily," he concludes. "We know this because the daily totals increase too consistently to be real. Then they assigned about 70% of the total to be women and children, splitting that amount randomly from day to day. Then they in-filled the number of men as set by the predetermined total. This explains all the data observed."

He also highlights that by Hamas's own admission, 6,000 Hamas fighters have been killed, which if combined with Hamas's data on deaths, shows that 20% of the total deaths are combatant while 70% are women and children. This implies that "Israel is somehow not killing noncombatant men, or else Hamas is claiming that almost all the men in Gaza are Hamas fighters."

In conclusion, he says, "The truth can’t yet be known and probably never will be. The total civilian casualty count is likely to be extremely overstated.

How Hamas "Gaza Health Ministry" Fakes Casualty Numbers

Here’s the problem with this data: The numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children, and the majority may be Hamas fighters.

Not only do official Palestinian death counts fail to differentiate soldiers from children, but Hamas also blames all deaths on Israel even if caused by Hamas’ own misfired rockets, accidental explosions, deliberate killings, or internal battles. One group of researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health compared Hamas reports to data on UNRWA workers. They argued that because the death rates were approximately similar, Hamas’ numbers must not be inflated. But their argument relied on a crucial and unverified assumption: that UNRWA workers are not disproportionately more likely to be killed than the general population. That premise exploded when it was uncovered that a sizable fraction of UNRWA workers are affiliated with Hamas. Some were even exposed as having participated in the Oct. 7 massacre itself.

The truth can’t yet be known and probably never will be. The total civilian casualty count is likely to be extremely overstated. Israel estimates that at least 12,000 fighters have been killed. If that number proves to be even reasonably accurate, then the ratio of noncombatant casualties to combatants is remarkably low: at most 1.4 to 1 and perhaps as low as 1 to 1. By historical standards of urban warfare, where combatants are embedded above and below into civilian population centers, this is a remarkable and successful effort to prevent unnecessary loss of life while fighting an implacable enemy that protects itself with civilians.

Nobody knows how many have been killed but there are far too many as accepted by all sides and even the most senior diplomat in the US has admitted it repeatedly.

www.nytimes.com...

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said on Friday that “far too many Palestinians have been killed” in Gaza, in the latest indication that the Biden administration is growing increasingly concerned about the civilian death toll under Israel’s bombardment and ground invasion.

It refutes your claim. I don't know why you keep trying to convince the audience there haven't been many civilian deaths when Antony Blinken says the opposite.

Hey, welcome to ATS! Word of advice, try not to be a douche bag or you might get banned, it happens to some real douche bags and it's always a good rule NOT to be that guy.

Now, can you give a rought estimate of how many killed in GAZA were HAMAS and other terrorist groups waging war against Israel? It will help to grasp the sheer horror of what's going on with the children. Afterall, it's all about the kids, right?

I cannot give a number but as Blinken said there are far too many civilians killed in Gaza. When the top US diplomat admits it then you know how serious the situation is.

originally posted by: FlyersFan

originally posted by: network dude
Hey, welcome to ATS!

That's the alienborg/Leviathan4/Venkuish1 troll.
He's not new. He's been banned at least 20 times that I know of.
Twice just yesterday. An obsession. He needs help.

You are still obsessed with the poster.
You are the one who is trolling the threads and propagandising 24/7 running from the thread to thread to justify the the murders of innocent people in Gaza and the crimes committed by Israel. You spend too much of your time but the problem is you are not on the right moral side.