Simple Question: Does the Israeli/Hamas War expand or not?

Simple question here I’m curious of people’s take on:

Will the war between Israel and Hamas/Gaza/Palestinians expand to other Middle Eastern countries or not?

My vote: yes.

The bonus question is… does America get involved, does America and NATO get involved, or does NATO sit by and let the Israelis spill the blood while we arm them with our most advanced tech?

Personally? I think America and some NATO get involved. Curious what will come of Turkey.

a reply to: VulcanWerks

Hasn't it already?

Hezbollah out of Lebanon.
IRGC out of Syria


And we know who is behind it.

If history is to be regarded, we have the babies and civilian deaths already.

a reply to: VulcanWerks

It’s not a simple question though.

On one hand there have been proxy wars since WWII, and many haven’t blown up too big.

On the other, sometimes it’s the craziest spark that finally gets the tinder box.

I suppose it all depends on if Iran hops in. Hamas doesn’t really have weight, they’ve been increasingly isolated from the Middle East in the past few years. Many countries cleared hurdles to get into the international community, not sure they’d give it up now.

Lebanon has had economic troubles before the blast in Beirut, after that its been a nightmare. They only tip the scales on being an extra small front, and a possible gateway for other players… but I don’t see them conducting a formidable war against Israel in their current form.

Again, I think it all comes down to Iran. And they could only really do this if they had bigger backers themselves… and if that’s the case… then yea, we’re all screwed globally.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

Iran is already in Stinky.


What we do about it is another question. I would hope that we remove them from our own White House first however...

a reply to: VulcanWerks

Flip a coin, roll the dice, draw a card, that will get you as good an answer as any and with less argument.

There are too many pawns in play to predict how the cards will fall and who gets the touchdown when the dominoes are finally all down.


I think I am getting too tired for posting more tonight.

a reply to: VulcanWerks

In this specific global geopolitical climate, this specific war, if it does expand, it will not stop expanding until its global. Thats ww3! That means all of us.

I dont think that will happen. you better hope it doesnt too.

originally posted by: combatmaster
a reply to: VulcanWerks

In this specific global geopolitical climate, this specific war, if it does expand, it will not stop expanding until its global. Thats ww3! That means all of us.

I dont think that will happen. you better hope it doesnt too.

I sincerely hope it doesn’t.

a reply to: JinMI

I’m not saying they had no involvement.

I’m just talking about if it comes to blows between them.

Israel has been at proxy with them in Syria for years. Saudi Arabia too in Yemen (with some U.S. support).

depends how effective the invasion part is, that wont start for a few days yet, if its not effective in quickly ending resistance the war will definitely expand.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

I’m not saying they had no involvement.

No, you didn't. You said:

I suppose it all depends on if Iran hops in.

To which I was just reiterating the obvious, that they are already in. Resource wise. Along with Lebanon and Syria (Iran proxies along with Hamas).

I suppose, for arguments sake, that we can omit the countries from the factions, but that's really watering down an argument and omitting the obvious.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: VulcanWerks

It’s not a simple question though.

On one hand there have been proxy wars since WWII, and many haven’t blown up too big.

On the other, sometimes it’s the craziest spark that finally gets the tinder box.

I suppose it all depends on if Iran hops in. Hamas doesn’t really have weight, they’ve been increasingly isolated from the Middle East in the past few years. Many countries cleared hurdles to get into the international community, not sure they’d give it up now.

Lebanon has had economic troubles before the blast in Beirut, after that its been a nightmare. They only tip the scales on being an extra small front, and a possible gateway for other players… but I don’t see them conducting a formidable war against Israel in their current form.

Again, I think it all comes down to Iran. And they could only really do this if they had bigger backers themselves… and if that’s the case… then yea, we’re all screwed globally.

You’re absolutely right this isn’t a simple question - when played forward.

My question is intended to fact-check a thesis; that the conflict will spread into the majority of the Middle East, US/NATO will be directly involved, and this it’s conceivable the other world powers get involved. WW2 was about Europe, WW3 is about the Middle East with Taiwan/South China Sea being the pacific theatre.

One way to fact check that is to start simple - will this situation spread beyond current state?

People answering the simple yes/no question helps see if the foundation for the hypothesis has a high enough probability of occurring or not.

If you assign that probability to be high as I have, then you have to play a lot of things forward - which is very complicated.

Why’d I even engage in this thinkin?

Because if you can get a handle on where the big world events are going, then you can also begin to paint a mosaic of what the ripple effects of those events are across economies, politics, and the aggregate sentiment of countries.

All of that is interesting food for thought, and generally good intel.

originally posted by: VulcanWerks
Will the war between Israel and Hamas/Gaza/Palestinians expand to other Middle Eastern countries or not?

Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said if Israel’s bombardment of Gaza continues, the war may open on “other fronts” – an apparent reference to the Lebanese group Hezbollah.

Amir-Abdollahian arrived in Beirut late on Thursday and was greeted by representatives of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad along with Lebanese officials.

“In light of the continued aggression, war crimes and siege on Gaza, opening other fronts is a real possibility,” he said, speaking to journalists on his arrival.

Amir-Abdollahian visited Iraq and is also expected to hold talks in Syria later this week as part of a regional tour.

His trip comes amid tensions between Hezbollah, which is allied with Tehran, and Israel along Lebanon’s southern border.

Israel-Hamas live: Iran says new fronts may open if Gaza bombing continues

Based on this, I guess this depends on how the next few days of Israel's operation go and what Hamas does with the hostages. So far, the intelligence looks as if Iran didn't have anything to do with Hamas's most recent attack, at least directly, which lowers the chance of Israel taking direct action against them. I believe this operation will be limited to Gaza, with minor skirmishes with Hezbollah in Lebanon and elements in Syria who are still technically at war.

a reply to: JinMI

If they hop in to direct involvement.

That’s different than providing material support.

It's really up to Israel and how they decide to proceed. If they continue to deny innocent women and children basic necessities in Gaza we are likely to see hezbollah and others get involved. Which would escalate into a much larger conflict.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: JinMI

If they hop in to direct involvement.

That’s different than providing material support.

Fair enough.

Now lets get into the semantics of "direct involvement."

a reply to: VulcanWerks

I’d factor in watching the money too.

The markets haven’t dumped, even if you insulate out defense stocks.

There are plenty of people in the circle who could have played this already, but I haven’t seen any movements that seem black swan like.

For what it’s worth, I haven’t touched my position which is still overall bullish. I also don’t play defense stocks other than the amount I can’t avoid in ETFs or Retirement (which is a trivial position).

At the end of the day everyone wants to stay in power. That won’t happen with Iran if they go all in. It would be a bloody war and no one would really “win”, but iran would end up with a new government after the sand settles.

a reply to: majesticgent

So far, the intelligence looks as if Iran didn't have anything to do with Hamas's most recent attack, at least directly, which lowers the chance of Israel taking direct action against them.

I don't think that's the way Israel is looking at it.

After playing a key role in the group’s military development for years and navigating deep ideological rifts, Tehran has renewed its extensive sponsorship in ways that contributed directly to the recent bloodshed in Gaza.

[www.washingtoninstitute.org...]

a reply to: VulcanWerks

If the catalyst happens it will be Tomorrow (for me) 10-13-2023.
There was a global call for action. on Friday the 13th.