Polish Ambassador Either Ukraine Fights or We will be forced to enter into this conflict

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: putnam6

Why is it that just because you may not want our country sending so much financial and military aid to Ukraine you are labeled a Putin nut-hugging minion?

I can understand where someone is coming from with that view.

But it’s a spectrum, and that view is kind of in the middle.

But look at the rest of this thread even. Some go so far as to say this is all the US’s fault, or the US is evil, and imply Russia is some anti globalist champion.

Yes, it's like a thermostat it's called degrees. I don't like where we have set the thermostat at

You set it to high and you melt and you set it too low you freeze.

In some situations being in the middle is exactly where one should be, respectfully

Nowhere have I said we shouldn't have sent any aid.

I am opposed to how much is being sent and it is sent without a decent audit and accounting where it ends up. #1

Google "Ukraine arms black market" circa Mar 19, 2010 - Feb 1, 2020

That's not the kind of illegal industry that just goes away in a few years



and #2

I have serious concerns about how long we will have to supply Ukraine at 45 billion a year. How many years to get a full and glorious Ukrainian victory one that now includes expulsion from the eastern provinces and Crimea too? The first picture is the height of the Russian special military operation the second is from yesterday. At the current recovery rate, 3 years minimum with 10 years minimum rearm and rebuild infrastructure




and #3

how much it is depleting our weapons and munitions and respectfully this isn't from some youtube or podcast this is from a semi-respectable think tank that does nothing but this

www.csis.org...

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian

Published January 9, 2023

As the United States transfers massive amounts of weapons, munitions, and supplies to Ukraine, questions arise about the health of U.S. inventories. Are inventories getting too low? How long will it take to rebuild those inventories? An earlier CSIS commentary identified those inventories that are at risk as a result of transfers to Ukraine. This commentary continues that analysis by examining inventory replacement times. Most inventories, though not all, will take many years to replace. For most items, there are workarounds, but there may be a crisis brewing over artillery ammunition.

www.csis.org...

The protracted nature of the war has prompted questions and reflection on the readiness of the U.S. defense industrial base, though the current conflict is not yet an exercise in industrial mobilization. To date, the robust support that the United States has provided to Ukraine has primarily come out of stockpiles, drawing the United States down to levels that have triggered concerns as to whether there are sufficient residual inventories for training and to execute war plans in the case of a conflict in which the United States is directly involved. It is no longer a question of whether the U.S. industrial base is prepared to rapidly surge production in the case of a direct conflict with a capable adversary—it is clear that it is not, and that is because the necessary investments have not yet been made to make it so.

Mark Cancian (Colonel, USMCR, ret.) is a senior adviser with the CSIS International Security Program. He joined CSIS in April 2015 from the Office of Management and Budget, where he spent more than seven years as chief of the Force Structure and Investment Division, working on issues such as Department of Defense budget strategy, war funding, and procurement programs, as well as nuclear weapons development and nonproliferation activities in the Department of Energy. Previously, he worked on force structure and acquisition issues in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and ran research and executive programs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. In the military, Colonel Cancian spent over three decades in the U.S. Marine Corps, active and reserve, serving as an infantry, artillery, and civil affairs officer and on overseas tours in Vietnam, Desert Storm, and Iraq (twice). Since 2000, he has been an adjunct faculty member at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, where he teaches a course on the connection between policy and analysis. A prolific author, he has published over 40 articles on military operations, acquisition, budgets, and strategy and received numerous writing awards. He graduated with high honors (magna cum laude) from Harvard College and with highest honors (Baker scholar) from Harvard Business School.

originally posted by: firerescue
a reply to: vNex92

Poland and Slovakia are sending surplus Mig 29 to Ukraine, some 33 aircraft, doubling Ukraine force

Ukraine wants F16, but the logistical and training requirements as well as political considerations mean its not in the cards

Ukraine has MIG 29 and is trained on how to fly and maintain them They have been modifying them to use NATO weapons like HARM anti radar missiles and JDAM guided bombs

www.strategypage.com...

First paragraphs explain Ukraine use of MIG 29

Major props for the link...

Big fan of Jim Dunnigan and have read a few of his books, Al Nofi too, the guys are pros and pro soldiers, airmen, and sailors. Im going to be supremely interested in their thoughts

When I can afford it I'll subscribe too.

Hell, the photos and the articles I'll be on there all night...

a reply to: putnam6

I've been watching that map since the war broke out. It hasn't changed much.

To me, it looks more and more like a vacuum. Sucking the manpower and resources with almost zero gross result.

a reply to: putnam6

You have valid points, and you’re one of the cool headed critics who doesn’t devolve into pure hyperbole.

I’ve struggled to morally reconcile us using them as proxy.

The best case scenario is they concede Crimes and small parts of the east. But damn, the price they paid to get there is something America hasn’t had to go through in about 8 decades. That said, they’ve clearly fought with the odds against them, so that appears to be a testament of their own conviction.

The stockpiles is alarming, but a lot of it is hand me downs, and let’s be real, no country intends to use aged stockpiles unless it’s an emergency. Even well kept, a lot of ammo and shells have a shelf life of thirty years if we’re being generous. Devils advocate would say we’re coming off the heels of the Middle East though, so we should have been rotating into replenishment, so while the idea of giving away hand me downs could be sound, the timing is questionable or poor.

The money is just as nuanced. Yes they’re notorious for being corrupt. And again, timing for us couldn’t have been worse. But even if it goes on for five more years at this pace, I think the west would have been able to stomach half a trillion to upset the eastern sphere of influence which was inevitable to be addressed in some fashion. This was less than ideal though in terms of outcomes and timings. Should have been with policy, not pawns.

As someone who is fiscally libertarian right and social libertarian center or left (not progressive), this issue has been a challenge.

But I’ve learned in my short life every moment has been a challenge. 9/11 I was about to get in high school. 08 was near graduation, my thirties have been just as eventful.

I don’t trust politicians, but trust them more than the shell of the USSR who just played jester to their apprentice turned master. Their axis is China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and Belarus. I can say we’re not altruists while also not minding giving them a bloody nose… all with no casualties to date.

There was no perfect outcome. We either abandon the Budapest memorandum and signal to every nation having nukes is better than not having them, and treaties mean nothing, or taking the low road. There’s no winning in war, certainly not this one.

originally posted by: Bluntone22


No matter what happens in the next few months, and that will be huge from both sides, Russia has shown the world what their large military really is… all hype.

Russia was not expecting to fight a war against 100s of BILLIONS of dollars worth of some of the world's newest, most advanced and powerful weapons from a large assortment of different countries.

Look how the US did in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now give and train the Iraqis or Taliban hundreds of Billions of dollars of the world's most advanced weapons, being used by soliders who think they are getting endless virgins if they die, let's see how good the US does then with knowing how they did already against "armies" with the worst and oldest weapons around.

Russia is very powerful nation, their power lies in their nuclear arsenals

a reply to: MisguidedAngel

Ukraine hasn’t gotten anything close to the most advanced weapons in the battlefield.

Edit: to be fair the intel may be more useful, and there they may piggyback off the most advanced war machine. But they don’t possess it, and the most advanced weaponry hasn’t been utilized. Spy tech at best.

One thing about the war in Ukraine is clearly its not about the Ukrainian independence....
Its about the assets .... major banks that had fallen recently, desperation is on the swing for the globalists when it comes to the conflict in Ukraine.

All Wars Are Bankers' Wars

originally posted by: JinMI
a reply to: putnam6

I've been watching that map since the war broke out. It hasn't changed much.

To me, it looks more and more like a vacuum. Sucking the manpower and resources with almost zero gross results.

It's a money pit and America is paying the bulk of the expense. No way it can continue at this rate something has got to give

originally posted by: IAMTAT
a reply to: vNex92

Why is Poland worrying?
Biden and the MSM says Ukraine is winning.

Exactly

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: vNex92

Someone is fully desperate, that's for sure.

What does banks failing got to do with any of this?

Someone has to handle all the money laundering in this conflict.

originally posted by: Bluntone22
This war has been going for over a year..
Russia is not winning.
Unless having a huge portion of your military hardware destroyed forcing you to pull tanks out of museums is winning.
Or 200k dead and wounded forcing you to draft replacements is winning.
Having your flagship sunk is certainly a bold strategy vlad, let’s see if it works for them.

No matter what happens in the next few months, and that will be huge from both sides, Russia has shown the world what their large military really is… all hype.

Do you know why Russia who is very capable of crushing Ukraine overnight did not ?
Reasons:
#1 Putin knows the West wants to see all the Russian war toys as soon as possible ( info gathering)
#2 Putin know the USA will funnel huge amounts of money/equipment into the Ukraine & the longer the war drags on , the less popular it will become in the West .
#3 Why destroy a country that you will need to rebuild when you inevitably will own it.
#4 Putin knows how unpopular the war is with Western countries. Most of Europe & America could careless about the corrupt Ukraine & it’s problems with Russia. The longer the war , the better for Putin.
#5 The longer the war , the more desperate Biden will become & more acts like the Nordstream sabotage will occur thus creating more Russian nationalism for war .
#6 Putin can’t lose, because the Red Dragon China would love a defeated Russia in secret & Putin knows it. Putin & Xi are pals on paper & Russia knows China is resource ravenous.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

I'm so tired of the arguing on here back and forth, we need to learn how to rationally discuss topics, and barring that atleast muster up some mutual respect. Otherwise, it's just Reddit, Twitter, or Facebook with a paranormal, UFO cryptid twist. But I don't mind being wrong either and I hope I am wrong. I loved to hear it was true that Xi didn't ask for a cease-fire from Putin he is asking for a withdrawal of troops. But what are those chances?

Apologizes for using the MIC meme, but it does apply, I don't know about other countries' MIC but it's thriving here in the US and I probably shouldn't complain since my state has numerous military contractors. There are so many parallels to Dick Cheney's Haliburton shenanigans in Iraq and Afghanistan, it resembles the vision he sold us all on. It is so similar some believe our involvement in Ukraine is political payback for the boondoggle Cheney signed us up for WBW. All the RINOS of the Republican party made bank then, and certain Democrat politicians found out and now they are virtually owned by those politicians, allegedly but if thats even partially true payback is indeed a

Here's the thing I d love to stick to Putin, and I feel for the Eastern Europeans I heard stories from women Ive worked with. They explained that corruption it's almost a matter of survival, it's deep-rooted and extremely hard to escape its results. One of them left her family to come to the US when all of the previous stuff happened in Yugoslavia. Virtually all of it is from trying to escape the shadow of the USSR and now Russia, the Russian mafia has its fingers all over the region.

5 years and trillion dollars, it's just money. But I remember Sarajevo a little bit, 30 years later and it's just now getting back to its new normal if you read the links they still have issues, Ukraine is Sarajevo on steroids minus the chances of regime change. The Siege of Sarajevo was 44 months. 30 years later and there are still disputes on where the border is or isn't, unemployment is high even local media mentions the scars. All of that took NATO intervention and eventually American direct assistance even though its timing was a bit dubious.No doubt some here would suggest there are more parallels than meet the eye

archive.nytimes.com...

Our good and pure intentions and billions of dollars can't always make the bad stuff go away.

sarajevotimes.com...

www.csis.org...

It's always prudent to question when these 2 get together even in times of peace

a reply to: putnam6

I'll tell you what, no snark, I will ask you one question: How far should the democratic nations of the world go to prevent a China/Russia-driven world order?

originally posted by: IAMTAT
a reply to: vNex92

Why is Poland worrying?
Biden and the MSM says Ukraine is winning.

The war in Ukraine is in a stalemate phase for both sides. Moreover, Putin's act of mass homicide, consisting of dispatching poorly trained and equipped conscripts into the meat grinder, is ongoing. But Ukraine's political and military leaders are balancing fighting a Verdun-style battle and preparing for their next counter-offensive.

The impact of Russian institutional corruption on mobilisation efforts will impact their front-line units. So promised equipment won't arrive, leaving a gap between the strength of units on paper and reality. Also, Wagner Group, the present-day and private sector version of the SS, will seek out the newer Russian military hardware.

Lastly, Ukraine is or will look to acquire the logistical elements required to drive Russian forces further eastwards.

Russia was not expecting to fight a war against 100s of BILLIONS of dollars worth of some of the world's newest, most advanced and powerful weapons from a large assortment of different countries.

Its a cornucopia!!..and to think if Putin had a mind he could have brought all this to bear on Ukraine and probably not lost a man..I mean nobody likes nazis..but it was an afterthought just like the whole invasion..lets operate in reverse today.

As corrupt as these oligoofs seem to be their underworld is probably pretty intense, so the sanctions are definitely boosting the organized crime out of Russia..maybe that's the goal, but Russia has shown no originality in this whole affair…great T Rump ally..So T Rump is courting the Russian organized crime world, he already rimmed Putin and taint tickled xing ping, and licked the camel dung from the bottom of the saudis robes..might as well dive deeper into the gangster role..I know it's Hollywood..but can T Rump even be made? No..theyve already postponed the arraignment just so he would lose a bit of credibility on his prediction…circus music playing.du du du du du du du du du

It will take another pearl harbor to get US in that war.
and only when they are begging for help! again!

I have no doubt biden will do this.

originally posted by: SecrettoSociety
Do you know why Russia who is very capable of crushing Ukraine overnight did not ?

Because Russia underestimated Ukraine. They fell into the groupthink that they were better. They were not, as evidenced by the catastrophe that has unfolded to the soldiery of Russia.

To briefly cover your points in turn...

1. Russia's "toys" are over-rated and/or poorly used. Much of it is scrap metal now.
2. The amount of support provided to Ukraine by the West is a tiny fraction of their collective GDP. Russia's effort in the war is the entire GDP and more of Russia.
3. Russia have destroyed everything they have taken. Villages, towns and cities have been flattened.
4. Support for Ukraine is actually high across the West.
5. Really? Is that the current excuse?
6. Putin cannot win, even the current objectives they have set down are unachievable.

originally posted by: paraphi

originally posted by: SecrettoSociety
Do you know why Russia who is very capable of crushing Ukraine overnight did not ?

Because Russia underestimated Ukraine. They fell into the groupthink that they were better. They were not, as evidenced by the catastrophe that has unfolded to the soldiery of Russia.

To briefly cover your points in turn...

1. Russia's "toys" are over-rated and/or poorly used. Much of it is scrap metal now.
2. The amount of support provided to Ukraine by the West is a tiny fraction of their collective GDP. Russia's effort in the war is the entire GDP and more of Russia.
3. Russia have destroyed everything they have taken. Villages, towns and cities have been flattened.
4. Support for Ukraine is actually high across the West.
5. Really? Is that the current excuse?
6. Putin cannot win, even the current objectives they have set down are unachievable.

I can tell you don’t understand chess .
I hate Putin & find him repulsive , but Germany is in favour of Russia running the Ukraine than the USA via it’s installed comedian leader .
The Ukraine will surrender or be crushed by the bear.
Ukraine is filled with corrupt gangsters just like Russia, but the Ukraine has nothing of an army , airforce, navy or supply chain to win a war against Lichtenstein let alone Russia.
Russia has lost battles to invaders here & there throughout history , but when Russia is on the attack , not even the Germans can stop them .
I feel horrible for the innocent , but to believe that Russian is lacking in equipment or tech military wise is ridiculous considering they share tech with China.
Russia has enough artillery & shells to level Europe .
Russia has the largest artillery battalions on Earth.

a reply to: SecrettoSociety

You are over-analysing a fairly simple situation. Russia decided to invade Ukraine and they have failed.

All this rubbish about "the bear" and "enough... shells to level Europe". et al., is just you having a wet dream. The Russian bear is drunk and has been declawed.

Russia, destroying lives for a hundred years.

a reply to: putnam6

Some of the folks following this are making the claim that it's by design. Bleed Ukraine (and the West) until they are so weak that Russia can steamroll the rest of the nation.

I can't quite believe that though because I'm sure there are plenty of Ukranians who will still fight.

However if the goal is everything east of the Dnipro RIver then it may have some weight.