Ukraine Conflict is All About the Arctic

Better three hours too soon than a minute too late

- William Shakespeare

www.brainyquote.com...

Perhaps we are making up for lost time.

What do I mean?

I mean the Ukrainian conflict may have a lot more to do with The Arctic than it does with the Ukraine.

Here’s why the above statement is worth considering:

Many people are aware that, for whatever reason you assign to it, that the polar ice caps are melting.

Is it “Global Warming”? The “Polar Shift”?

Who knows - it’s most likely a mix of a number of things. What we do know, however, is that arctic ice is melting and that’s a well known, documented occurrence. I will not link to examples as a quick search will yield more results than you likely care to read regarding this phenomenon.

It turns out, the Russians are also aware this is happening. So what do they do?

Back in 2014. Russia continued their Arctic push with gusto by opening their first Arctic base - citing natural resource exploration, and national security.

www.themoscowtimes.com...

news.yahoo.com...

Meh, whatever, right?

Well, fast forward to 2017, and Russia is opening another, major arctic base.

www.newsweek.com...

Fast forward again to April 2021 and Russia is not only building a massive new base, but also, bases plural:

americanmilitarynews.com...

Interesting. I don’t recall a ton of MSM coverage of this. However, the DOD is very much paying attention - per this article released in April 2021 on the heels of the new Russian facilities:

www.defense.gov...

"[We] obviously recognize that the region is key terrain that's vital to our own homeland defense and as a potential strategic corridor between the Indo-Pacific, Europe and the homeland — which would make it vulnerable to expanded competition," Kirby said. "We're committed to protecting our U.S. national security interests in the Arctic by upholding a rules-based order in the region, particularly through our network of Arctic allies and partners who share the same deep mutual interests that we do."

Maybe Trump’s idea to buy Greenland wasn’t so crazy after all? In fact, it was a good idea. Problem is he tipped his hand regarding our foreign policy - which is a blunder. Anyway, back on track.

So we have Russia building bases like Bond villains, and polar ice melting. Why then, now, would Russia be making such large investments in the Arctic region?

There’s several, but, the largest would be something called the Northern Sea Route:

en.m.wikipedia.org...

This shipping route connects Europe and Asia through arctic waters. Not only does the route connect the continents, it cuts travel time between Asia and Europe in half compared to the Suez Canal.

The Suez Canal, open all the time, is materially longer than the NSR, but, open to passage more of then than not.

en.m.wikipedia.org...

From my link above regarding the NSR, Russia is making a push to lay some claim to the route, or open their own shipping routes - which is evidence by their push for a nuclear ice breaker fleet:

www.cbsnews.com...

Russia touts huge new nuclear-powered icebreaker as proof "the Arctic is ours"

Theirs, eigh?

Well, maybe, but that’s contested. We’re talking about an area that’s largely pristine, is natural resource rich, and the shipping/trade route with Asia has real economic and national security consequences.

So what do we have up there?

Thule.

en.m.wikipedia.org...

Thule Air Base is occupied by the US Space Force and is part of NORAD. Interestingly, as of May 2022, there’s some talk about expanding the base and we won’t talk about it:

Washington has a spat with Greenland due to keeping US military plans for the Thule airbase should be open, not undisclosed. These bases are vital to the US expansion in the Arctic, where Greenland is close by

www.hngn.com...

Interesting.

This Arctic talk paints a whole different picture of what’s important. We’re talking trade routes, radar installations, national security, and 22% of the Earth’s fossil fuels that are thought to be located in the Arctic North - and global warming is warming in the direction of Siberia as the North Pole shifts directly towards it.

www.discovermagazine.com...

“A range of simple models that capture this process indicate that over the next decade the north magnetic pole will continue on its current trajectory traveling a further 390-660 km towards Siberia,” says the team

This is a real economic, and national security threat - the Ukraine is not.

Ukraine represents .16% of the global economy:

www.theglobaleconomy.com...

They are have a very interesting history, and it’s not exactly sterling. I won’t elaborate here as commentary to that end isn’t terribly applicable to my point, other than to say they’re the perfect distraction.

So as Russia ramps up in the Arctic, and we know that’s a threat, we know something needs to be done about that. Rather than confront them, we watch troops build up on the border and Russia go for Crimea part 2; the land bridge.

Given we do not want hot conflict with Russia, we needed a proxy to take the worlds attention off the real problem, strain Russias finances, and kill sentiment towards Russia. This is very productive for the US in that Russia is impacted economically, and, who wants to do business with Russia when they’re the only “super power” that invades neighbors and does all the bad things?

The Ukraine war bought us time. It bought us time to pass a massive military budget and expand our Arctic presence, all while weakening Russia economically, militarily, societally, and reputationally .

We keep feeding the Ukraine narrative as a way to bolster defenses in Europe (which needed to be updated), unloaded a bunch of weapons we don’t need (buy new ones), build a war narrative the American People will support (evil Putin!), and never officially engage in hot conflict with Russia - we spend Ukrainian lives who happen to have a common enemy in Russia (to some extent) and we’ll rebuild Ukraine when it’s all over - their reward is NATO membership, foreign-direct investment, and a massive upgrade of their country when it’s all over.

The “Green Transition”, then, is just a way to crush Russian energy - and therefore their economy - via sanctions, some undersea shenanigans, and a cold winter in Europe and an expensive winter in the US. Now, to be sure, we have ambitions for a green transition and the Ukrainian conflict is a forcing mechanism for that. But, the strategic value of the transition is palpable if we’re talking about Russia.

One more kicker for the Ukraine conflict benefiting the US? Well, Artic bases need a lot of funding - billions to overhaul Thule alone. But, a line item for that would be too transparent instead…

FOX News reported today that the Biden administration is frantically trying to track nearly $20 billion in military aid it has sent to Ukraine as Republicans warn of audits in January.

www.independentsentinel.com...

Voila! $20bn to kick us off!

And who made note of the need for Arctic expansion? Rand. On 2/10/22:

The United States might do well to focus more on U.S. ally and partner capabilities in the region.

www.rand.org...

Interesting coming from Rand, when Ukraine was invaded 12 days later on 2/24/22.

But why is that really, really interesting?

RAND is a policy think tank with a long history.

en.m.wikipedia.org...

And what did the Ukraine war being about? Potential inclusion of Norway and Finland in NATO. Which is what? A strong focus on ally partner capabilities in the region.

So, the place to watch for news, may be the place there is no news about - the Arctic. Ukraine is just a means to an end.

The desired end state of all of this may be Russia being crippled globally and China knocked back to distant second economically and technologically. This will allow the US to expand NATO influence with little resistance, secure the NSR, and likely set the table for at least another 40 years of US/NATO dominance and expansion - in terms of both prosperity and security.

But, when it comes to Russia specifically, it’s possibly all about the Arctic - and control of the spoils that come with it.

Don’t let the Ukraine conflict fool you.

Thanks for reading and considering another point of view.

Interesting perspective, thank you. A long read and somewhat complex, however, it makes more sense to me than anything else I've been reading or seeing on the news.

From the beginning of the Russian/Ukraine war, I couldn't make sense of any of it although I was leaning more toward the Russian propaganda while just plain ignoring ours. Still, it got to the point where I believed everyone was lying and nothing was close to being true, so I ignore it all now basically.

But you have made a point I can agree with, the Arctic circle. Even if the ice wasn't getting thinner, it is important for many reasons as has been presented here. I don't go with all of what you laid out, but it is sparking my interest.

a reply to: VulcanWerks

Great thread! You got the conspiracy gears in my head rolling. It's just the thing I needed to start my day!

the uk pivoted back to the north sea empire in 2010 under Cameron setting up the northern alliance which spooked both the USA and Russia..

that's evolved into economic forums and a military alliance..

the JEF last met only a few hours ago.

or it could simply be that russia / ol farty wants to be the worlds supper power. their in africa, the artic and many other places.

farty has delusions of grandeur and wants to leave a legacy as to what he thinks is russian superiority along with many of the top people in russia, and it's greatest leaders.

a reply to: BernnieJGato

the thing is neither he or the USA is.. Russia has been aggrieved about the JEF since its formation, but then that's a longstanding issue with the north sea empire and the Russ, the same played out with the soviet union 100 years ago.. white Russia/red Russia it doesn't really change the dynamics..

The headline reads:
The battle for the Arctic has already begun and the West is already behind.

In January, when an undersea telecommunications cable connecting this far-flung Arctic archipelago to mainland Norway and the rest of Europe was damaged, Norwegian officials called to port the only fishing vessel for miles, a Russian trawler. Police in the northern city of Tromsø interviewed the crew and carried out an investigation into the incident, which was seen as a major threat to the security of Norway and other nations, including the United States. Had there not been a back-up cable, the damage would have severed internet to the world’s largest satellite relay, one that connects the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NASA and other government agencies from around the world to real-time space surveillance.

The investigation’s findings were inconclusive, if worrisome. Something “man-made” had damaged the cable, but Norwegian police could not prove the Russian fishing vessel was responsible, authorities told me. The police allowed the fishing boat crew to return to their ship and set back out to sea.

Link for full story:
[strangesounds.org...]

a reply to: VulcanWerks

I am thinking it's not about the Arctic because Russia's oil revenues have declined and will decline even more over the next few years.

“Gas demand growth in China's future is nowhere near as strong as it has been in recent years,” he added.

Crippling economic sanctions will hurt Russia’s ability to develop gas-rich regions like Eastern Siberia and the Arctic, Mr Gould said.

Oil markets are closely watching how a price cap on Russian oil will be enacted by the Group of Seven nations. The cap, which is meant to reduce revenue for Russia’s government, is expected to come into effect on December 5.

“Oil is mustering up a nice rally as energy traders try to price in a China recovery that will unfold over the next few months,” Edward Moya, Oanda's senior market analyst, said in a research note on Thursday.

China will most likely continue with its zero-Covid policy, which has the backing of President Xi Jinping.

Frequent pandemic lockdowns in major cities in China have dampened oil demand.

The country’s crude imports in August rose to 9.53 million barrels per day, up 715,000 bpd from July. However, they were still down 986,000 bpd on a year-on-year basis.

www.thenationalnews.com...

This source shows the 2018 pre-war shipping routes Russia used in the Arctic. They have lost customers here.

cosmoschronicle.com...

This source lists Russia's customers and what their plans are for either phasing out fossil fuels or looking elsewhere for their oil and gas, and the U.S., Australia and the Middle Eastern countries are stepping up.

www.aljazeera.com...

I am not too sure if Russia's other customers can make up the difference, it seems not from the bpd stats above.

So, after all that, my main point is that I doubt the Arctic shipping route will be needed since the main customers will be Indian and China and one or two EU countries.

edition.cnn.com...

CNN just did the linked piece discussing Russian Arctic activity.

Beyond trade routes and oil pipeline, I think there’s more to this story.

Meanwhile, the Biden admin appears to be far more interested in arming Ukraine - implications be damned - but that’s meeting resistance:

“With ATACMs, escalation is the primary concern,” Joshi said. “They could attack quite deep within Russia, and if the Ukrainians were to use them to do so, that could well cause a fissure within NATO about how to respond. There’s a range of European countries, including in southern Europe, that are wary of escalation.”

www.france24.com...

It’s clear the US wants Russia engaged with Ukraine. The more I’ve read, the more I suspect we need to deplete Russia and buy time to get Finland and Norway into NATO - a process that’s moving along:

www.atlanticcouncil.org... cross-the-alliance/

US also just appointed it’s first ambassador to the polar region:

en.mercopress.com...


And the US approved a $4bn spend for Thule operations:

www.stripes.com...

There’s something to see here, but, most people probably are focused solely on the Ukraine issue.

Curious to see how this plays out. Adding Norway and Finland (along with Ukraine) to NATO puts the alliance right on the border. Unknown if Putin will go WW3 or realize he should probably avoid that - assuming he lives that long given I question his shelf life at this point.

originally posted by: VulcanWerks
Adding Norway and Finland (along with Ukraine) to NATO puts the alliance right on the border.

Norway is a founding member of NATO since 1949.

Also Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are all already on the border of Russia. But also... Nukes. Border proximity is irrelevant. Well, unless you want to annex countries next to you.

It's never about what it appears to be/they say it's about. Good thread.

I authored the OP about a year ago.

It may have been ahead of its time, but, it appears to be somewhat over target:

A new Russian presidential decree suggests that Moscow could be gearing up for a standoff with new NATO member Finland and the Baltic States, according to independent investigative publication Agentstvo, and a U.S. think tank.

www.newsweek.com...

Ukraine is relevant in the sense of expanding NATO and bleeding Russia militarily and financially. It’s a hot war, blended with Cold War strategy.

As outlined in the OP, NATO has successfully expanded into the Arctic region (ex-Sweden, but, that will happen).

The future fight is north, I suspect.