Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: putnam6

Yeah no worries. I just don't think Europe needs many anti ship missiles for this war.

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
a reply to: Freeborn

The Russian's are fighting a British and American trained and supplied military that uses young Ukrainian lads as gun fodder. Everyone knows what the |Russian's are up against. For all my complaints and moaning about our nation and it's descent into free fall over the last thirty years, one thing I will say as a positive is the British military has been a proven world beating system for two hundred and more years and something Russia is going to have to really kick into gear if it is to defeat any conflict we and our allies the Yanks are involved with. Russia is really fighting the best in the world here, we shouldn't be surprised they are taking a bit of a pounding in the east of Ukraine. Time of course will tell how this conflict turns out. I don't see us ending support for our proxy Ukraine and I certainly don't see Russia stepping back now and accepting NATO on their all important western border. Escalation id now inevitable. We just have to pray the loons backing both sides stick to conventional weapons and leave the nukes alone

We have to be careful the loons on either side don't get desperate enough to try and widen the conflict. Just look at these numbers below.

The sheer number of troops Russia can throw and this doesn't count any troops they could get from their vassal states like Belarus it's a matter of time.







www.globalfirepower.com...

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Yeah. They can probably recruit some of them at least. Especially ones who are in prison. Their home countries will be pissed though if Russia press ganging large numbers of their citizen. It would come with a political cost.

a reply to: ufoorbhunter
We got to consider whats going on in Belarus as well-large Russian build up of wepons and soldiers.
Worst case scenario could be a twin attack from the North and South at the same time.

The Ukrainian Army has their hands full defending the present front line-If they had to divert forces to new fronts they would be in serious trouble.

Also Russia has that new/continuing mobilization rumored to be kicking into phase two at the end of the month so the are not going to be worrying about spare meat.

Bad times far from over sadly.

originally posted by: Cutepants
a reply to: putnam6

Yeah no worries. I just don't think Europe needs many anti ship missiles for this war.

Well it's not just anti-ship missiles thats just one aspect I recall them mentioning the video goes into the details, such as logistically America has loads of aircraft dedicated to Ukraine. What happens we it's needed if there is a move on Taiwan?

Not to mention isn't thier rumors Russia is readying for an amphibious assault on Odessa? pretty sure anti-ship missiles would be relevant in the Black Sea

www.mirror.co.uk...

A massive fleet of Russian warships and submarines has been mobilised, sparking fears of a fresh assault on Ukraine, it was revealed tonight.

At least six warships, including two huge land assault vessels laden with troops, make up the armada making ready for battle from the Black Sea.

Among them are the Pyotr Morgunov landing ship, which is the largest amphibious assault ship in the Black Sea and cruise missile- laden submarines.

It could signal a new operation, perhaps another attempt at attacking southern Ukraine, or even an attempt to form a land bridge with Moldova breakaway state Transdnistria.

Or experts also believe it may be Moscow is preparing to protect its fleet from Ukraine’s long-range missile teams firing at military targets in Russia.

originally posted by: Cutepants
a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Yeah. They can probably recruit some of them at least. Especially ones who are in prison. Their home countries will be pissed though if Russia press ganging large numbers of their citizen. It would come with a political cost.

I read the Russian's have already forced the migrants into the army and sent them to the front lines. I guess it's it's all about about proving they exist when being honest and realistic about it they've probably been disappeared into Donbas by now

a reply to: putnam6

Those numbers you posted speak volumes Putnam on the future we can expect over there. Great post

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

You probably don't mean that they've forced all of the migrants, but a few of them? Especially considering that they all have jobs that are needed to keep the Russian economy going.

originally posted by: Silcone Synapse
a reply to: ufoorbhunter
We got to consider whats going on in Belarus as well-large Russian build up of wepons and soldiers.
Worst case scenario could be a twin attack from the North and South at the same time.

The Ukrainian Army has their hands full defending the present front line-If they had to divert forces to new fronts they would be in serious trouble.

Also Russia has that new/continuing mobilization rumored to be kicking into phase two at the end of the month so the are not going to be worrying about spare meat.

Bad times far from over sadly.

Spot on how I see it Silicone and sadly the real bad times are to come. Backing down is now impossible for Russia as that will mean NATO on it's western border. They are in this for the long game and one way or another they have to take the whole of Ukraine. A two pronged attack from north and south is as you say on the cards. I can see some play out in another front soon. Possibly Russia and Iran playing the Hezbollah card against Israel to deflect focus from their new attempt to take out Ukraine. Something's brewing over there right now and things don't happen unless Iran and Russia green light it

originally posted by: Cutepants
a reply to: ufoorbhunter

You probably don't mean that they've forced all of the migrants, but a few of them? Especially considering that they all have jobs that are needed to keep the Russian economy going.

14 million press ganged would be a little obvious to the outside world. I guess the figures are small yet I've read a few reports stating the Russian authorities are targeting these migrants as easy meat for racking up the required recruitment.

a reply to: putnam6

Can't they just move the aircraft to the pacific if that becomes more necessary?

And how is six ships a massive armada?

originally posted by: putnam6
The sheer number of troops Russia can throw and this doesn't count any troops they could get from their vassal states like Belarus it's a matter of time.

ruZZia has numbers but as this entire war shows, numbers mean jack diddly... not to mention just how much of those numbers is complete hokum and what are real? (Ukraines on the ground have mentioned they've seen far far less tanks than they originally did, to the point they are using anti tank munitions on infantry, so ruZZias 'working' tank stocks seem to be almost out). When the large majority of your numbers are used as one and done unequiped shock troops or as in the case of wakgner and the prisoners, human mine clearing devices (honestly I hope every card carrying member of wakgner gets a slow painful death)... just how good are said numbers going to be.

They've hit 12k dead in less than a month since hitting the 100k dead mark, and are threatening another mobilization (which will go down real well with the populace in moscow given how many they say they will dredge up this time, its gonna start to impact the 'im apolitical' lot in the two places putler actually cares about, moscow and old st petersburg).

Belarus could have joined in at any point and in the early days it kept intimating it would... nothing came of it, Lookaka#ko knows if any of his army commit to hitting Ukraine his own anti government opposition will go full ham on his arse, ruZZias vassal states have also been rather grumbly at it recently... while they could field bodies, thats about all they could and they sure as hell wouldnt be pleased about it. The CSTO is pretty much a one way street funneling into moscow, and it'll fall apart tootsweet if ruZZia starts taking even more advantage of it.

As long as the West keeps supporting Ukraine and actually gets the equipment to it they promise, ruZZia isnt gonna win this... not by a long shot, numbers be damned... after its all over though, ruZZias gonna be in a right state (clearing out villages and towns of their young and middle aged for the meat grinder is real smart /s) and all ill say about that is, good, never will karma have been so deserving. Hopefully those who left, go back and everyone gets their backsides turned around from apolitical to political and get some change going in ruZZia.

edit:- opps i got that wrong, its 14,000 confirmed dead ruZZians this month lol... jumped up a bit the last few days (more than likely from Soledar, I mean there were accounts of ruZZians having to climb over piles of their own dead to attack the Ukrainian positions).

originally posted by: Cutepants
a reply to: putnam6

Can't they just move the aircraft to the pacific if that becomes more necessary?

And how is six ships a massive armada?

Not if they are constantly resupplying Ukraine, the needed aircraft would likely have to be in theater for them to be effective during an assault

as for the armada, article says at least 6 warships and submarines and support vessels IIRC not to mention on January 4th

Russian Frigate Sails To The Atlantic With Hypersonic Missiles

Of course, it could be nothing hell it likely isn't but, military expedience would suggest we need to monitor these ships, hell we would monitor them during peacetime and we damn well should during whatever we got going on now.

www.navalnews.com...

Russian Frigate Sails To The Atlantic With Hypersonic Missiles

On January 4, President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu attended a ceremony to mark the start of new deployment: The so-called "long-distance operational cruise”, by the frigate "Admiral Gorshkov". This is the second operational deployment of this vessel, but the first with new hypersonic weaponry.

a reply to: putnam6

Like I said, because Russia failed to surprise America, I don't think China can pull it off either. So transport planes can be moved to a different theater if an invasion starts looking imminent.

The hypersonic missile frigate is just a propaganda tool. What are they going to do with a single frigate?

Attack is the best defense. You think we should pull back support for Ukraine because China might attack in the future. That's unwise. It would just make it easier for Russia to distract us even more in the future when China is ready to attack.

originally posted by: BigfootNZ

originally posted by: putnam6
The sheer number of troops Russia can throw and this doesn't count any troops they could get from their vassal states like Belarus it's a matter of time.

ruZZia has numbers but as this entire war shows, numbers mean jack diddly... not to mention just how much of those numbers is complete hokum and what are real? (Ukraines on the ground have mentioned they've seen far far less tanks than they originally did, to the point they are using anti tank munitions on infantry, so ruZZias 'working' tank stocks seem to be almost out). When the large majority of your numbers are used as one and done unequiped shock troops or as in the case of wakgner and the prisoners, human mine clearing devices (honestly I hope every card carrying member of wakgner gets a slow painful death)... just how good are said numbers going to be.

They've hit 12k dead in less than a month since hitting the 100k dead mark, and are threatening another mobilization (which will go down real well with the populace in moscow given how many they say they will dredge up this time, its gonna start to impact the 'im apolitical' lot in the two places putler actually cares about, moscow and old st petersburg).

Belarus could have joined in at any point and in the early days it kept intimating it would... nothing came of it, Lookaka#ko knows if any of his army commit to hitting Ukraine his own anti government opposition will go full ham on his arse, ruZZias vassal states have also been rather grumbly at it recently... while they could field bodies, thats about all they could and they sure as hell wouldnt be pleased about it. The CSTO is pretty much a one way street funneling into moscow, and it'll fall apart tootsweet if ruZZia starts taking even more advantage of it.

As long as the West keeps supporting Ukraine and actually gets the equipment to it they promise, ruZZia isnt gonna win this... not by a long shot, numbers be damned... after its all over though, ruZZias gonna be in a right state (clearing out villages and towns of their young and middle aged for the meat grinder is real smart /s) and all ill say about that is, good, never will karma have been so deserving. Hopefully those who left, go back and everyone gets their backsides turned around from apolitical to political and get some change going in ruZZia.

The key phrase there is as long as the west keeps supplying them, and by the West, it's America cause all the EU and UK did was send thier old stuff so they could order new stuff from the American MIC. FWIW that MIC don't want it to end they don't want regime change either, they prefer a long drawn-out conflict with UK Europe, and America engaged and blowing stuff up they can replace over and over.

Sounds like you are rooting for regime change, is that the goal? Cause that's not what was sold to the American public, this is to get Russia out of Ukraine not to topple Putin, which isn't happening anytime soon, if ever.

originally posted by: Cutepants
a reply to: putnam6

Like I said, because Russia failed to surprise America, I don't think China can pull it off either. So transport planes can be moved to a different theater if an invasion starts looking imminent.

The hypersonic missile frigate is just a propaganda tool. What are they going to do with a single frigate?

Attack is the best defense. You think we should pull back support for Ukraine because China might attack in the future. That's unwise. It would just make it easier for Russia to distract us even more in the future when China is ready to attack.

I'm not saying it the think tank at the link I sent is saying this. China is probing China straight fairly extensively BTW it seems to me more than normal but perhaps it wasn't in the news as often.

Regardless we keep hearing this thread here on one hand Ukraine is kicking Russia's butt, and on the other Russia is a global threat and might invade London, It's BS you can't have both.

Russia's performance so far isn't indicative that they can project their force anywhere and keep it supplied and functional, Ukraine is next door and they can do this. But they can just squash Ukraine under the weight of their ability to absorb the punishment, and America has to pay over and over to keep Ukraine in the game.

and for what? there is no way it is ever gonna be civil now until Ukraine is pounded in the mud or an extremely remote chance there is an internal regime change in Russia.

Which isn't how America was sold on supplying Ukraine, to begin with.

www.cnn.com...

‘No question’ there is pressure on stockpiles
Colin Kahl, the Pentagon’s undersecretary for policy, told reporters in a recent roundtable, “there’s no question” the weapons pipeline to Ukraine has put pressure on the stockpiles and industrial base of the US as well as its allies.

“Look, we’re seeing the first example in many decades of a real high intensity conventional conflict and the strain that that produces on not just the countries involved but the defense industrial bases of those supporting, in this case supporting Ukraine,” Kahl said. “I will say Secretary (Lloyd) Austin has been laser-focused since the beginning in making sure that we were not taking undue risk. That is that we weren’t drawing down our stockpiles so much that it would undermine our readiness and our ability to respond to another major contingency elsewhere in the world.”

Kahl added that the support the US has provided to Ukraine has not put the US military “in a dangerous position as it relates to another major contingency somewhere in the world,” but he said it has revealed there’s more work to do to make sure the US defense industrial base is more nimble and responsive.

The questions about weapons stockpiles comes as Congress is finalizing the Pentagon budget for the current fiscal year through the annual National Defense Authorization Act as well as the government spending package Congress is expected to try to pass before government funding expires on December 16.

A crater is seen near the small village of Przewodów, Poland where Polish officials confirmed that two people were killed after an explosion.
Poland, NATO say missile that killed two likely fired by Ukraine defending against Russian attack
The US military often turns to Congress for a funding boost – lawmakers have routinely added billions to the Pentagon’s budget requests in annual spending bills.

The Biden administration on Tuesday sent a letter to Congress seeking an additional $37.7 billion in funding for Ukraine. The funding includes $21.7 for the Pentagon to be spent in part to address weapons shortages, according to a White House fact sheet that says the money the Defense Department spending is for “equipment for Ukraine, replenishment of Department of Defense stocks, and for continued military, intelligence and other defense support.”

The $37.7 billion request comes as Republicans are projected to reclaim the House majority in the next Congress, which could make it more difficult for the Biden administration to authorize funding to Ukraine next year. House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy has said Republicans won’t give Ukraine “a blank check” – though he also clarified to his conference’s foreign policy hawks that he supports continuing to fund Ukraine’s war – and there are numerous Republicans pushing for a significant curtailing of US aid to Ukraine.

a reply to: putnam6

Wait, so you disagree with what the think tank said?

originally posted by: Cutepants
a reply to: putnam6

Wait, so you disagree with what the think tank said?

No not all but it's not just some schlub ATSer saying we are running low, it's CSIS think tank they seem fairly legit and have been around a while, and have been led by former politicians. It's being led by the same mindset that a lot of our current leaders have. Even they are reporting we have depleted some munitions in amounts that will take years to replace. Hell I wouldn't mind even that if we knew we would have a happy, free and secure Ukraine at the end of this. We don't know that at all and it's more likely to devolve into a years-long bitter war with no decisive winner and America pissed away some of its military advantages




www.csis.org...

Rebuilding U.S. Inventories: Six Critical Systems
January 9, 2023

As the United States transfers massive amounts of weapons, munitions, and supplies to Ukraine, questions arise about the health of U.S. inventories. Are inventories getting too low? How long will it take to rebuild those inventories? An earlier CSIS commentary identified those inventories that are at risk as a result of transfers to Ukraine. This commentary continues that analysis by examining inventory replacement times. Most inventories, though not all, will take many years to replace. For most items, there are workarounds, but there may be a crisis brewing over artillery ammunition.

Summary
The table below lays out weapons and munitions where concerns have arisen about inventories.

www.csis.org...

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization dedicated to advancing practical ideas to address the world’s greatest challenges.

Thomas J. Pritzker was named chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 2015, succeeding former U.S. senator Sam Nunn (D-GA). Founded in 1962, CSIS is led by John J. Hamre, who has served as president and chief executive officer since 2000.

CSIS’s purpose is to define the future of national security. We are guided by a distinct set of values—non-partisanship, independent thought, innovative thinking, cross-disciplinary scholarship, integrity and professionalism, and talent development. CSIS’s values work in concert toward the goal of making real-world impact.

CSIS scholars bring their policy expertise, judgment, and robust networks to their research, analysis, and recommendations. We organize conferences, publish, lecture, and make media appearances that aim to increase the knowledge, awareness, and salience of policy issues with relevant stakeholders and the interested public.

CSIS has impact when our research helps to inform the decisionmaking of key policymakers and the thinking of key influencers. We work toward a vision of a safer and more prosperous world.

a reply to: putnam6

For what it's worth, I think it's most likely going to remain a frozen conflict even when or if Ukraine takes all the territory back.

And I would agree with this option:

Accepting more risk. Finally, the United States could take additional risk by reducing inventories further. This would entail taking weapons from later-deploying reserve units and squeezing munitions inventory levels. These actions are uncomfortable, but, as Secretary Gates said in a different context, you focus on the war you have today, not the war you might have in the future. Indeed, elements in Congress are complaining that the military is keeping too much back over concerns about hypothetical future wars, particularly against a weakened Russia.

It's a good point though and I've been worrying about whether artillery shell production is being increased enough in Europe for example. It's hard to figure out how much is being done. Politicians need to understand the probability of a long war.

But on the upside US air and naval stocks should be full at least? And those are the most important weapons for defending Taiwan.

a reply to: putnam6

China is probing the straits, but what does that mean in practice?

Regardless we keep hearing this thread here on one hand Ukraine is kicking Russia's butt, and on the other Russia is a global threat and might invade London, It's BS you can't have both.

Who has said that? Russian TV keeps saying they're gonna nuke London etc, do you mean them? I don't think the pro-Ukraine folks in the thread think it will happen though.

But they can just squash Ukraine under the weight of their ability to absorb the punishment, and America has to pay over and over to keep Ukraine in the game.

Why keep saying that when that's what we're arguing over in the first place. I don't think they can if they don't get more tanks from China or something.