HUGE victory for Ukraine, Lyman captured

originally posted by: Grimpachi
Days ago I read that the estimated numbers UA was throwing at Liman were around 15K which was being held by 2K. There still must have been some failures by RU command for it to fall because they see those numbers regularly in the Kherson region and are handling it.

As for the mobilization they are still going through readiness drills and are being staged. Few if any have yet to enter Ukraine.

Perhaps you haven't realized that Ukraine is fighting 'fixing' and 'interdiction' campaigns in the Kherson region?

russian troops aren't 'handling' anything, they are hopelessly trapped and being toyed with the way a cat plays with a mouse.

originally posted by: 38181
a reply to: putnam6

Good questions.

Maybe it’s to wear down and downsize the number of uke troops? Use up their ammo supplies on cannon fodder? Who’s going to backfill lost uke soldiers?

Exactly the 'strategy' russia has been using since April.

Do you think it's been working?

a reply to: MidnightWatcher

It's funny how you think you know what is going on.

a reply to: Grimpachi

It’s funny how anyone thinks they know what’s going on.

originally posted by: Grimpachi
a reply to: MidnightWatcher

It's funny how you think you know what is going on.

Some of us are actually paying attention to what little information is available, and there is more than most think.

It isn't all that difficult, you just have to set aside the propaganda and look for 'evidence'.

a reply to: Zaphod58


You didn't 'know' from available evidence that russia had switched to an entrenched artillery attrition strategy around April?

Or that this strategy wasn't all that successful, or even remotely sustainable?





Come on man, that would make you a lying dog faced pony soldier.

You're the opposite of that.

a reply to: MidnightWatcher

I’m talking about the big picture. People, on both sides, are posing as if they know what’s happening with Russian conscripts, or Ukrainian losses, troop deployments, and strategies. Yes, there are details we know, but no one on here knows the big picture of what’s going on.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: Grimpachi

It’s funny how anyone thinks they know what’s going on.

That is basically my point.

Aside from the videos of battles I see posted I don't take any reports at face value. Some of the videos I am even leary about.

originally posted by: TritonTaranis

originally posted by: putnam6

originally posted by: TritonTaranis

originally posted by: putnam6
a reply to: TritonTaranis

For perspective here is the Lyman bulge as it was

and here is what remains to be recaptured and held btw Lyman bulge is that tiny little pink blip above Kramatorsk

It's fine if everybody wants them to join NATO and throw billions at them and even send our troops etc. however let's not act like this isn't more than a victory in a specific local area.

No Perspective there mate

You playing the wrong game

Look at the other maps, the important critical ones

Road/Rail

Means Russia only has one route into Kherson & Crimean

Means DNR & LNR regions only have two

Gonna be easy work for the satellites and ATACM to deal server damage to Russian Logistics, you cant fight without it and the world is watching every inch of it 24/7

No need to get sensitive, comrade, just trying to see your perspective and learn here

So with this huge victory, we can assume what exactly? How soon till Russia loses the Luhansk oblast totally and more importantly can Ukraine hold it if Russia pulled out completely and regrouped?

If Russia can hold on for more than a month or 2 and/or Ukraine can't hold the area or suppress Russian separatists located there, is it really a huge victory?

on top of finding it difficult to find anywhere else claiming encircling Lyman is restricting supply routes anywhere except locally. FWIW here is the Study of War key points I'll highlight the take on the Lyman bulge. No mention of it being so crucial and huge.

www.understandingwar.org...

Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the illegal Russian annexation of four Ukrainian territories on September 30 without clearly defining the borders of those claimed territories.
Putin announced that Russia’s usual autumn conscription cycle will start a month late on November 1, likely because Russia’s partial mobilization of Russian men is taxing the bureaucracy of the Russian military commissariats that would usually oversee the semi-annual conscription cycle.
Russian officials could re-mobilize last year’s conscripts when their terms expire on October 1.
Ukrainian forces will likely capture or encircle Lyman within the next 72 hours.
Ukrainian military officials maintained operational silence regarding Ukrainian ground maneuvers in Kherson Oblast but stated that Ukrainian forces continued to force Russian troops into defending their positions.
Russian troops continued ground assaults in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian authorities continued efforts to coerce Russian participation in mobilization efforts, but will likely struggle to coerce participation as Russians continue to flee Russia for border states who welcome them.
Russian officials are accepting bribes and engaging in other preferential treatment to prevent or ease the economic burden of mobilization on the wealthy.
Russian authorities are continuing to deploy mobilized personnel to Ukraine without adequate training or equipment, and personnel are unlikely to be able to afford to provide their own supplies.
Russian forces conducted a missile strike on a Ukrainian humanitarian convoy and attempted to blame the Ukrainian government.

Firstly i apologize if that is how you took it, please accept my apology, no offence was ever meant

I think i come across the wrong way a lot on here when im being sarcastic and just bantering, at least thats how i see it... which is why i'll apologize... obviously its hard to put expression in text ? if it was video or audible perhaps you would have seen it

People take it as an insult but really im just laughing my arse of 90% of the time while responding because claims are so unbelievably stupid. especially to the Pro Russian Imperialists, lets be honest since the Kyiv assult theyve been claiming all sorts of stupid stuff yet here we are, in a position just like we told them, YOU GETTING SPANKED - THE END, or the Far left tankies & MAGA christian extremists, there really is no point in trying to be reasonable with entrenched ideologues and extremists they're gone forever and irretrievable by anything you put in-front of them, therefore banter is the best course of action, the mental gymnastics is very impressive though

Anyway, dont take it to heart, next time read my post with a little bit of sarcasm and humor, again completely apolgise to you bud sorry

No worries just passing the time myself, the comrade comment was definitely my attempt at some levity as well.

I am interested in the military aspects as much as anything. All the political and diplomatic stuff not so much. On the outside looking in you rarely get the true story of war/combat from the participating sides, or at least that's how I feel.

The more authoritative or insistent a side is the less I believe them, both sides and even myself sometimes.

My base opinion is, Keep America out of it as much as possible, and keep it within the established areas of dispute, as it is a European issue for now. Use nukes and all bets are off, which is why I think Putin is bluffing and Zelenskky plays the nuclear threat up, cause he has to have those checks coming in either way. In other words, billions are spent to delay the inevitable, at the very least.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: MidnightWatcher

I’m talking about the big picture. People, on both sides, are posing as if they know what’s happening with Russian conscripts, or Ukrainian losses, troop deployments, and strategies. Yes, there are details we know, but no one on here knows the big picture of what’s going on.

Ah, then I agree.

Nobody here knows 'the big picture' very well.

Or details like actual specific losses for either side.




But we do get glimpses, and taken together, we can get pretty good evidence for specific areas at specific times.

And a pretty good 'range' of potential losses for each side.




For instance, it was quite obvious that russia suddenly switched to an entrenched artillery war of attrition strategy around April in most of the occupied areas, and more recent evidence is available that this strategy has completely failed.

It's also quite obvious that russia's claim of having lost only 35 BTRs is absurd, Ukraine has serial number photos of almost 300 BTR caucuses, and we can see the junkyards from space.

But knowing the 'exact' number is obviously impossible.

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher

originally posted by: Grimpachi
a reply to: MidnightWatcher

It's funny how you think you know what is going on.

Some of us are actually paying attention to what little information is available, and there is more than most think.

It isn't all that difficult, you just have to set aside the propaganda and look for 'evidence'.

You mean look for confirmation bias?

The whole lot of you are taking what "little information is available" and arguing like middle schoolers making # up over things you think are true or not. Yall should be embarrassed. You all are falling for propganda. Nah, yall are eating it up as long as it comes from the government you support.

Damned statists I swear.

originally posted by: AutomateThis1v2

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher

originally posted by: Grimpachi
a reply to: MidnightWatcher

It's funny how you think you know what is going on.

Some of us are actually paying attention to what little information is available, and there is more than most think.

It isn't all that difficult, you just have to set aside the propaganda and look for 'evidence'.

You mean look for confirmation bias?

The whole lot of you are taking what "little information is available" and arguing like middle schoolers making # up over things you think are true or not. Yall should be embarrassed. You all are falling for propganda. Nah, yall are eating it up as long as it comes from the government you support.

Damned statists I swear.

Example?


Cuz I'm watching russia supporters make stuff every day (every hour?) that always seems to match absurd russian propaganda and Ukraine supporters reporting on the evidence they find.



But no, I mean looking for facts that can be verified and setting everything else aside.

I used to read this virtually every day, if interested in this topic it's worth the read. All these months the only opposition to the Study of Wars assessment was somebody stating it's nothing but propaganda. While possible it's the only daily source of info I've found if there are any others please add them here. Its an interesting take on a possible split between the Chechens and traditional Russians

www.understandingwar.org...

Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan

October 1, 7 pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Ukrainian forces inflicted another significant operational defeat on Russia and liberated Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, on October 1. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the withdrawal of Russian troops from Lyman to “more advantageous positions” to avoid the “threat of encirclement” in the settlement.[1] Social media footage and Ukrainian military officials confirmed that Ukrainian forces have entered Lyman and are likely clearing the settlement as of October 1.

The Russian information space – composed of Kremlin propagandists, pundits, and milbloggers – registered the defeat as the result of the Russian military command’s failure to send reinforcements in a timely manner, while openly criticizing repeated bureaucratic failures during the mobilization.[2] Russian commentators overwhelmingly expressed their hopes that partial mobilization would generate enough force to resume offensive operations and regain the initiative. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, apparently devastated by the defeat in Lyman, called on Russia to continue to fight to ”liberate” the four annexed territories with all available means including low-yield nuclear weapons.[3]

Kadyrov’s rant is similar to the disorganized and often hyperbolic milblogger rants that call for the Kremlin to continue the war in Ukraine, and his call for the use of nuclear weapons was not representative of the discourse within the Russian information space. Russian federal TV channels and ultra-hawkish milbloggers have often discussed Russian nuclear capabilities as part of their efforts to stoke patriotic sentiments among Russian domestic audiences, and Kadyrov’s statement was not especially noteworthy in this context.

Kadyrov’s call for using tactical nuclear weapons is likely inconsistent with his demands to continue the “special military operation” to bring more Ukrainian territory under Russian control. The Russian military in its current state is almost certainly unable to operate on a nuclear battlefield even though it has the necessary equipment and has historically trained its units to do so. The chaotic agglomeration of exhausted contract soldiers, hastily mobilized reservists, conscripts, and mercenaries that currently comprise the Russian ground forces could not function in a nuclear environment. Any areas affected by Russian tactical nuclear weapons would thus be impassable for the Russians, likely precluding Russian advances. This consideration is another factor that reduces the likelihood of Russian tactical nuclear weapons use.

Kadyrov blamed the commander of the Central Military District (CMD), Colonel General Alexander Lapin, for failures around Lyman. Kadyrov’s attacks gained significant traction within the Russian information space and indicate that the rift between Russian traditional and non-traditional forces is likely growing. Kadyrov stated that Lapin, responsible for the ”central” group of forces in Ukraine, failed to properly equip units operating in the Lyman area and moved his headquarters far from the frontlines. Kadyrov also accused the Russian General Staff and specifically Chief of the General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, of covering up Lapin’s failures. Wagner Group financier Evgeniy Prigozhin publicly agreed with Kadyrov’s criticism of Lapin, saying that the higher military command should fight “barefoot with machine guns on the frontlines.”[4] Milbloggers and state television hosts praised Kadyrov‘s and Prigozhin’s critiques of the Russian military command, adding that the command is corrupt and disinterested in Russian strategic goals.[5] Kadyrov, Lapin, and Prigozhin are all operating in the Donbas sector, and such comments indicate the strains within the Russian forces operating in Ukraine and their leadership. The Kremlin may be amplifying such criticism to set informational conditions for personnel changes within the higher military command in weeks to come.

The defeat around Lyman also indicates that Russian President Vladimir Putin – who has reportedly been micromanaging Russian commanders on the ground – is deprioritizing defending Luhansk Oblast in favor of holding occupied territories in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian and Russian sources consistently indicate that Russian forces continued to reinforce Russian positions in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts, despite the recent collapse of the Kharkiv-Izyum front and even as the Russian positions around Lyman collapsed.[6] The decision not to reinforce vulnerable Kupyansk or Lyman front lines was almost certainly Putin’s, not that of the military command, and suggests that Putin cares far more about holding the strategic terrain of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts than he does about Luhansk Oblast.

Russia is likely setting conditions to assume legal responsibility for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Russian authorities detained the general director of the ZNPP, Ihor Murashov, on September 30.[7] A Russian miblogger claimed that Murashov’s detention will have no tangible impact on the operation of the plant since the power units are already shut down and stated that authorities are currently undertaking ”routine“ legal work to transfer control of the plant to Russian state nuclear energy corporation Rosatom and create a new legal entity for the ZNPP.[8] Murashov’s detention and the ”legal” process of transferring control of the ZNPP to Rosatom are noteworthy indications that Russian authorities will likely seek to exploit their control of the ZNPP to pressure the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to legitimize the illegal Russian annexations of occupied Ukrainian territory by coercing it to acknowledge Russia‘s legal control over the ZNPP.

Russian forces conducted a failed ground attack on Kozacha Lopan in northern Kharkiv Oblast on October 1. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian ground attack on Kozacha Lopan, 5km from the Kharkiv Oblast-Russia border.[9] Such attacks indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin likely retains the aim of regaining control of territory beyond the oblasts he has illegally annexed and is willing to allocate Russian military assets to such offensive actions rather than dedicating them to defending against the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Donbas.

a reply to: putnam6


Their daily summary is always posted in the Update thread and frequently discussed there.

ISW (Understanding War) is about the most solid source available right now, while they lack some details found elsewhere, they have been rock solid on what they do post.

a reply to: putnam6

ISW is one of my go to sites for annalist of the war. they really show no bias and just present facts.
lots of people don't like that and can't argue with them so they don't really try.

there is one other site i go to, but it's a MSM so you have to look at that way. but it can lead you to other sites that are pretty straight forward if you do a search for what they report.

after you scroll down and get rid of the footer / banner about half way down on the days date, you'll see russia Ukraine War at a glance Russia ukraine war what we know on day221.

ussia-Ukraine war latest: what we know on day

a reply to: BernnieJGato


Link is 'blocked' for me.

a reply to: MidnightWatcher

It's the Guardian U.S.edition, maybe they have one for where your at.

hold on a mintue link doesn't seem to work. let me try to repost it.




try it now.

originally posted by: BernnieJGato
a reply to: MidnightWatcher

It's the Guardian U.S.edition, maybe they have one for where your at.

hold on a mintue link doesn't seem to work. let me try to repost it.



try it now.

Thank you Bernnie!

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher
a reply to: putnam6


Their daily summary is always posted in the Update thread and frequently discussed there.

ISW (Understanding War) is about the most solid source available right now, while they lack some details found elsewhere, they have been rock solid on what they do post.

Yes, believe it or not, I only found the continuing thread about the war a couple of months ago, rarely comment there but if I want to read about the war it's where I go.

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher

originally posted by: AutomateThis1v2

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher

originally posted by: Grimpachi
a reply to: MidnightWatcher

It's funny how you think you know what is going on.

Some of us are actually paying attention to what little information is available, and there is more than most think.

It isn't all that difficult, you just have to set aside the propaganda and look for 'evidence'.

You mean look for confirmation bias?

The whole lot of you are taking what "little information is available" and arguing like middle schoolers making # up over things you think are true or not. Yall should be embarrassed. You all are falling for propganda. Nah, yall are eating it up as long as it comes from the government you support.

Damned statists I swear.

Example?


Cuz I'm watching russia supporters make stuff every day (every hour?) that always seems to match absurd russian propaganda and Ukraine supporters reporting on the evidence they find.



But no, I mean looking for facts that can be verified and setting everything else aside.

Sure get defensive. I understand how easy it would be for you to assume I'm not talking about them as well.