Merchandise and Food Shortages in a National Crisis

Sharing my notes on the potential shortages we may all be experiencing soon. These notes are based on examples from Venezuela and Argentina back in 2014 and earlier. The one article I based the prices on is a paid subscription Bloomberg page.

www.bloomberg.com...

Items that become scarce (Venezuela Examples)

Bottled Water
Foods - Chicken
Medicines - all esp. prescription
Gasoline
Detergents - Laundry soap, dish soap, etc.
Toilet paper
Diapers
Car batteries

Studies have shown these short-term items go first when a crisis happens.

Bottled Water
Powdered Milk
Pancake mix
Ramen Noodles
Popcorn
Cereal
Beef Jerky
Cooking Oils
Nuts
Dried Fruits
Power Bars
Juice Powders
Spices (salt, pepper, etc.)
Honey
Crackers
Baking Essentials (flour, sugar, baking soda, baking powder)
Coffee
Liquor
Hard Candies
Baby Food, Diapers, Wipes
Pet Food

Services
Natural Gas
Electricity
Gasoline

Possible Costs
Based on current crisis in Venezuela and former crisis in Argentina.
The inflated prices only apply if normal stores have the product available.

The first price is 2014 US Avg, the second price is retail Inflation (X 6.3) and the third is the Black market price (X 187)

Reg. Milk (1 liter), $ 0.92, $ 5.80, $ 172.04
Lettuce (1 head), $ 1.06, $ 6.68, $ 198.22
Water (1.5 ltr bottle), $ 1.40, $ 8.82, $ 261.80
1 Domestic Beer, $ 1.50, $ 9.45, $ 280.50
Eggs (12), $ 1.91, $ 12.04, $ 357.17
White Rice 1kg, $ 1.96, $ 12.35, $ 366.52
Potatoes (1kg), $ 2.20, $ 13.86, $ 411.40
1 Imported Beer, $ 2.33, $ 14.68, $ 435.71
Loaf of White Bread, $ 2.68, $ 16.88, $ 501.16
Chicken Breast 1kg, $ 5.87, $ 36.99, $ 1,097.69
Tomatoes (1kg), $ 6.15, $ 38.75, $ 1,150.05
Apples (1kg), $ 6.39, $ 40.26, $ 1,194.93
Pack of Cigarettes, $ 6.60, $ 41.58, $ 1,234.20
Local Cheese (1kg), $ 7.17, $ 45.18, $1,340.79
Oranges (1kg), $ 7.41, $ 46.69, $ 1,385.67
Bottle of Wine, $ 9.00, $ 56.70, $ 1,683.00

A thrifty food cost of $300 per adult, per month today would equal approximately $1,890 inflated cost or $56,100 in black market mark-ups.

Have Cash on Hand!

With communications cut-off (FEMA did this in New Orleans) and electric out, checks, credit and debit cards wouldn’t work for 100 miles. Banks closed because they couldn’t use their computers, phones, etc.

Cash - Enough to cover the black market mark-up, basically every penny you have. Given these Venezuelan figures, a dollar would = 16 cents, so it would be approximately $6.25 for an item valued at a dollar, or as much as $187 black market for an item valued at one dollar.

About the Black Market (Argentina Crisis)

"Once the SHTF the black/gray market will take no time to appear all around you. At first it was all about trading skills or craft products for food. Districts and towns would form their own barter markets, and created their own tickets, similar to money, that was used to trade. This didn’t last long. Those tickets were easy to make on your home computer, there was no control and eventually people went back to paper money."

"What can be found at a local markets? Mostly food and clothing. Some have more variety than others but cheese, canned food, spices, honey, eggs, fruits, vegetables, beer, wine and cured meat are generally available, same as bakery products and pasta."

"Since it is impossible to determine the true mineral percentage of gold, small shops and dealers will pay for it as regular jewelry gold. Besides gold coins, have a lot of small gold rings and other jewelry to sell or trade."

when-shtf.blogspot.com...

Surviving the Coming Economic Collapse (Greece crisis)

"Earlier this year pharmacies and hospitals in Greece were unable to provide life saving medicines due to a shortages caused by a freeze in the flow of credit from manufacturers to distributors to patients. A collapse in the country’s economy has forced many Greeks to turn to black market barter economies and has left millions financially devastated, with no hope of finding an income stream for the foreseeable future."

"The credit system of the entire country is in shambles. So much so that reports are emerging about food shortages and hunger within the Greek prison system, suggesting that serious problems in the food delivery chain have begun to materialize."

" 'RAE is taking crisis initiatives throughout next week to avert the collapse of the natural gas and electricity system,' the regulator’s chief Nikos Vasilakos told Reuters."

SHTF Plan Link

a reply to: MichiganSwampBuck

My Michigan brother! Damn...you went to a lot w/this thread. Great. Now I am depressed!

Now, go out back n cut some wood or s'mpthin'!

a reply to: mysterioustranger

Remember, those figures are from 2014 and earlier. This list is old & dated, but gives you an idea of what could happen here very soon.

So of course in order to kill anyone who hasn't got the space or the money to store/buy any food in masses, you have to buy everything that's available. Please do, buy as much as you can. I understand it's survival of the one with most storage space and money.
Don't worry about the elderly or disabled or single mums. Just buy lots of food to make it difficult for others to survive.
Somewhere it makes sense. And I'll be the last to go against natural selection.
Just wondering about your conscience.

a reply to: Hecate666

I can plow a field all day long I can catch catfish from dusk 'til dawn
We make our own whiskey and our own smoke, too Ain't too many things these old boys can't do
We grow good old tomatoes and homemade wine
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive

"A Country Boy Can Survive" by Hank Williams Jr.

a reply to: Hecate666

It's a done deal. I'll even cover the nearest old ppl home.

originally posted by: Hecate666
So of course in order to kill anyone who hasn't got the space or the money to store/buy any food in masses, you have to buy everything that's available. Please do, buy as much as you can. I understand it's survival of the one with most storage space and money.
Don't worry about the elderly or disabled or single mums. Just buy lots of food to make it difficult for others to survive.
Somewhere it makes sense. And I'll be the last to go against natural selection.
Just wondering about your conscience.

My conscience is fine, I'm merely sharing a list of commodities and their potential costs in a national crisis. I never said anything about hording and stockpiling or starting your own black market ventures, that is something you seem to be implying I have.

a reply to: MichiganSwampBuck

I do believe change is coming.

I think it is easy to get scared, and see this as all negative.

But.........what if there is a wonderful side of this.
There is always a balance.

What if, people find out that the medicines they've been taking for years are poisoning them.
What if, people find out grown, foraged and hunted foods are really how we are meant to eat, seasonally etc.
What if, a simpler way of life is what we've all yearned for.
What if, all things technology has actually held us back.

Just a different way of looking at things.

Back to that medicine thing. Of course it does not apply to everything. Ever watch the show Biggest Loser. When they start exercising and eating real foods all of sudden their diabetes, high blood pressure is miraculously cured. I wonder how many modern diseases would be almost cured overnight if these things happen.

I need to cut about six singles of firewood this summer, I only have five singles in stock. I have around four singles of dead hardwood on my property, and since I don't want to kill any unnecessary trees, I am thinking about possibly buying a logging truck load this summer. I can still cut it into chunks and split it, who knows what nest year will bring healthwise. I don't know what a ten full cord load goes for now, hopefully that has not got real expensive.

Our price of propane in a contract went from one seventy nine a gallon to two thirty six a gallon for the next year. That is a hefty increase in the price of propane...have to burn the kitchen wood cookstove next winter to make up the difference.

Do you guys really go to bed each night worried about all this stuff?

No wonder everyone is miserable and angry.

LIVE. PLEASE. Right now you're wasting what life you got. I know you don't see it, but one day, you look back at these years and go WTF.

Times in the past have been much worse for many, and I don't get why people don't know that. HISTORY will show you how tough you have it. AND YOU DON'T.

All this crap going on right now, and I'm trying to find a job.
No check, makes it hard to get gas money to go to interviews.

Very thankful we were smart enough to get 1/2 a cow, and a whole pig recently. I'll be canning alot. And I'm getting the garden in.

And we still have the chickens and ducks, so lots of eggs. May have to start letting them free range though, so I don't have to buy feed.

Just not a whole lot to be optimistic about right now. And I sure feel like it is going to get worse, before it gets any better.

originally posted by: MiddleInsite
Do you guys really go to bed each night worried about all this stuff?

No wonder everyone is miserable and angry.

LIVE. PLEASE. Right now you're wasting what life you got. I know you don't see it, but one day, you look back at these years and go WTF.

Times in the past have been much worse for many, and I don't get why people don't know that. HISTORY will show you how tough you have it. AND YOU DON'T.

Obviously I was worried 8 or more years ago when I did this study and produced the lists. Am I worried now? I am, but not as much since I've been giving consideration to prepping for many years, actively for the past 30. That life you seem to think I've been neglecting, has it been tough for me? At first, but I know so much more now to make it easier.

I live on a forty acre, agricultural/residential property that is a hardwood swamp with a creek. I heat with a wood stove, I have a backup generator that will run the whole house, a 12V DC solar power system with an inverter, and I'm working up four acres to grow cash crops including hops, tobacco, cannabis, and a number of herbs and spices. I grow beans and other garden veggies as well. I've been successful with my garden for fives years now, the hops and tobacco have been doing great. I make wine and beer, I have a still for moonshine and I make maple syrup too. The wild game is numerous and fishing spots a plenty here in the Manistee National Forest area.

I don't loose much sleep over anything but getting things done around here. I worry more about a potential wildfire or some thieving homeless alcoholics and meth heads then the shortages and hyper inflation that may be right around the corner.

a reply to: MichiganSwampBuck

I worry more about a potential wildfire or some thieving homeless alcoholics and meth heads then the shortages and hyper inflation that may be right around the corner.

Too true and too close to home recently.

Trouble is, our areas have been becoming increasingly popular.

a reply to: JinMI

Ah my neighbor.

Yes, I'd like to be some 50 miles north of here, or better yet the U.P. However, anywhere you go, there you are.

originally posted by: MichiganSwampBuck
a reply to: JinMI

Ah my neighbor.

Yes, I'd like to be some 50 miles north of here, or better yet the U.P. However, anywhere you go, there you are.

Indeed. We could go invade Rickymouse's stompin ground!!

It comes up often lately about how crime around us is on the rise. Lots of theft. However, usually the perp is usually outed because we are still small enough to have a network.

a reply to: MichiganSwampBuck

Good thing i have a garden, man im gonna make a killinng on my tomatoes

originally posted by: MichiganSwampBuck
Sharing my notes on the potential shortages we may all be experiencing soon. These notes are based on examples from Venezuela and Argentina back in 2014 and earlier. The one article I based the prices on is a paid subscription Bloomberg page.

www.bloomberg.com...

Items that become scarce (Venezuela Examples)

Bottled Water
Foods - Chicken
Medicines - all esp. prescription
Gasoline
Detergents - Laundry soap, dish soap, etc.
Toilet paper
Diapers
Car batteries

Studies have shown these short-term items go first when a crisis happens.

Bottled Water
Powdered Milk
Pancake mix
Ramen Noodles
Popcorn
Cereal
Beef Jerky
Cooking Oils
Nuts
Dried Fruits
Power Bars
Juice Powders
Spices (salt, pepper, etc.)
Honey
Crackers
Baking Essentials (flour, sugar, baking soda, baking powder)
Coffee
Liquor
Hard Candies
Baby Food, Diapers, Wipes
Pet Food

Services
Natural Gas
Electricity
Gasoline

Possible Costs
Based on current crisis in Venezuela and former crisis in Argentina.
The inflated prices only apply if normal stores have the product available.

The first price is 2014 US Avg, the second price is retail Inflation (X 6.3) and the third is the Black market price (X 187)

Reg. Milk (1 liter), $ 0.92, $ 5.80, $ 172.04
Lettuce (1 head), $ 1.06, $ 6.68, $ 198.22
Water (1.5 ltr bottle), $ 1.40, $ 8.82, $ 261.80
1 Domestic Beer, $ 1.50, $ 9.45, $ 280.50
Eggs (12), $ 1.91, $ 12.04, $ 357.17
White Rice 1kg, $ 1.96, $ 12.35, $ 366.52
Potatoes (1kg), $ 2.20, $ 13.86, $ 411.40
1 Imported Beer, $ 2.33, $ 14.68, $ 435.71
Loaf of White Bread, $ 2.68, $ 16.88, $ 501.16
Chicken Breast 1kg, $ 5.87, $ 36.99, $ 1,097.69
Tomatoes (1kg), $ 6.15, $ 38.75, $ 1,150.05
Apples (1kg), $ 6.39, $ 40.26, $ 1,194.93
Pack of Cigarettes, $ 6.60, $ 41.58, $ 1,234.20
Local Cheese (1kg), $ 7.17, $ 45.18, $1,340.79
Oranges (1kg), $ 7.41, $ 46.69, $ 1,385.67
Bottle of Wine, $ 9.00, $ 56.70, $ 1,683.00

A thrifty food cost of $300 per adult, per month today would equal approximately $1,890 inflated cost or $56,100 in black market mark-ups.

Have Cash on Hand!

With communications cut-off (FEMA did this in New Orleans) and electric out, checks, credit and debit cards wouldn’t work for 100 miles. Banks closed because they couldn’t use their computers, phones, etc.

Cash - Enough to cover the black market mark-up, basically every penny you have. Given these Venezuelan figures, a dollar would = 16 cents, so it would be approximately $6.25 for an item valued at a dollar, or as much as $187 black market for an item valued at one dollar.

About the Black Market (Argentina Crisis)

"Once the SHTF the black/gray market will take no time to appear all around you. At first it was all about trading skills or craft products for food. Districts and towns would form their own barter markets, and created their own tickets, similar to money, that was used to trade. This didn’t last long. Those tickets were easy to make on your home computer, there was no control and eventually people went back to paper money."

"What can be found at a local markets? Mostly food and clothing. Some have more variety than others but cheese, canned food, spices, honey, eggs, fruits, vegetables, beer, wine and cured meat are generally available, same as bakery products and pasta."

"Since it is impossible to determine the true mineral percentage of gold, small shops and dealers will pay for it as regular jewelry gold. Besides gold coins, have a lot of small gold rings and other jewelry to sell or trade."

when-shtf.blogspot.com...

Surviving the Coming Economic Collapse (Greece crisis)

"Earlier this year pharmacies and hospitals in Greece were unable to provide life saving medicines due to a shortages caused by a freeze in the flow of credit from manufacturers to distributors to patients. A collapse in the country’s economy has forced many Greeks to turn to black market barter economies and has left millions financially devastated, with no hope of finding an income stream for the foreseeable future."

"The credit system of the entire country is in shambles. So much so that reports are emerging about food shortages and hunger within the Greek prison system, suggesting that serious problems in the food delivery chain have begun to materialize."

" 'RAE is taking crisis initiatives throughout next week to avert the collapse of the natural gas and electricity system,' the regulator’s chief Nikos Vasilakos told Reuters."

SHTF Plan Link

Good thread. Many clues are telling us the great reset is here, and with the great reset comes the collapse of society in many forms. Preparing and thinking about survival are things we've done for millennia and only now are people saying we should not do it. I think it's very important to take what's happening seriously, because once the supply chains dry up, we are only days away from chaos.

a reply to: MiddleInsite

Do you guys really go to bed each night worried about all this stuff?

No, because were prepared

The ONLY person here that seems miserable is YOU, literally jumping from forum thread to forum thread, spewing your anger and hostility

Work on yourself before you go after others, and as always, if you dont like the freakign topic, DONT READ IT

a reply to: Hecate666

" you have to buy everything that's available "


No , you will be Desperate Enough to just TAKE It and God Help those Who Get in your Way . Do Any of US want to get to that Point Willingly ? No , then Make the " LAW " Work for you and Get these Criminals Out of Government ASAP or Else !

originally posted by: JinMI

originally posted by: MichiganSwampBuck
a reply to: JinMI

Ah my neighbor.

Yes, I'd like to be some 50 miles north of here, or better yet the U.P. However, anywhere you go, there you are.

Indeed. We could go invade Rickymouse's stompin ground!!

It comes up often lately about how crime around us is on the rise. Lots of theft. However, usually the perp is usually outed because we are still small enough to have a network.

Yes, folks know stuff.

I'd like to know who has all the money to waste on ammo. I've heard a lot from south of me and to the west. Big clips, some of it is full auto or bump stocks with multiple shooters firing. Then there are the huge explosions, they ain't just shooting those black powder cannons. Not that I'm worried about that really.