The Myth Of A Rapid Economic Recovery Once Quarentines Are Lifted

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

100/mo on haircuts for yourself huh? Share more financial wisdom, please!

I see it taking making six months to get back to normal-ish, starting with lester personal restrictions such as stay-at-home orders. It could be May or June before we get there. So, let's say the rest of the year. Unemployment often doesnt pay as much as wages, even with the extra stimulus, and most people aren't particularly proud of being on unemployment.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Each individual and business has their own set of circumstances. I for one can get back to work and all of my daily activities that too amount to that cost (10K) right now if they flipped the switch this second. As many can do this and get back to work the next day and not worry about a thing.. Others like yourself will have a more challenging to get back up to speed, time shall they just flip the switch back on. Flip that switch as soon as possible and everyone will get things done in their own time while getting back to normal, what ever their new normal will be.. MHO

Definitely agree with you Agustus, we're in a similar line of work. Salespeople of all groups know because our lives go well or bad based on how many valuable sales we can make and earn a comission from. It's as close to being a business owner you can get as an employee, you control a lot of your own outcome. We all as salespeople know anytime you go backward you have to work 2 to 3 times as long to get back to where you were and then to actually move forward to be able to make progress (grow). So if the economy is down a month it will be a minimum of a quarter before you can say things will be okay. And you can increase that for each month shut down. 4 months will be 8-12 months of recovery or longer, 6 months will be a a year to a year and a half. I don't know about you guys, but I don't want to live like that. I say the risk of that outcome is way worse than any effects of COVID-19 and we need to act in the best interest of the whole and these shut downs are not in the best interest.

We seem to have forgotten:

"We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."

We are not securing the blessing of liberty (government encroachment of natural rights and civil liberties), we are not promoting the general welfare (shutting down our economy the entire population is at risk instead of a certain percentage), insuring our domestic tranquility (nobody is happy right now, nobody is free to pursue their own happiness, and people are on edge). No where in there does a 95%+ shut down of the country would equate to any of these esteemed principles. What are we doing America?

originally posted by: markovian
And I listed things that point out what will slow down recovery more

Those existed prior to the shutdown. The effects of that action are what will impact the future.

originally posted by: BlueJacket
You are 100% correct. We are in similar positions, mine in healthcare sales.

I just finished telling my team not to expect the engine to just start back up. What scared me more than the obvious points you made... the utter complacency, the willful blinders, the lack of forsight expressed by my peers in regards the literal implications of halting a machine, of the global economies size.

Sorry to hear that. We're screwed even when it does start back up, our largest customers are the major hospitality brands and then national retailers and restaurants. They have been severely impacted financially.

originally posted by: ScepticScot
You won't but the money (either yours or your companies) is still there and will get spent on something or invested. The demand has been deferred not removed.

Our net revenues are down 95%, what money are you referring to that is 'still there'?

Well considering sales makes the economy go around no I agree the economy will not magically rebound. I am still out here trying to do buisness and people are scared to spend money and allot are unemployed sitting at home. I figured we would get hit on the manufacturing side of the economy I did not see the country forcing a lock down and depression. Yet considering a majority of GDP is consumerism its insanity. Legislators needs to get involved and produce some laws preventing litigation against businesses and places of employment with this virus and get people back to work. Lawyers (ambulance chasing are kicking their chops). As far as the virus, itself I understood taking the precautions we did at first not understanding but from what I can gather not nearly as deadly enough to destroy our economy. I agree the economy will not just bounce back in a week, and the longer we mess around the harder it will be to recover, bankruptcy foreclosures are coming just how bad it will be we dunno yet. Take care.

originally posted by: bender151
100/mo on haircuts for yourself huh? Share more financial wisdom, please!

$50 each with the tip, I missed two so far so I'm rocking the caveman look a the moment.

I see it taking making six months to get back to normal-ish...

Six months is very optimistic and I don't see that happening.

originally posted by: hdchop
Flip that switch as soon as possible and everyone will get things done in their own time while getting back to normal, what ever their new normal will be.. MHO

The longer the delay the more people will shift to the 'challenging' category.

If it companies money and the revenue hasn't came in then it is in the pockets of who ever didn't spend it on your companies services. Listing money you didn't spend tells us nothing about how money will be spent in the future.

The point remains that money not spent is largely immaterial to how well the economy will recover. What will matter is that business remain open and functional so that we can supply the goods and services the recovery requires.

a reply to: Arnie123

Your post is nothing but your opinion versus mine. You made your point in my other thread that you support government instituted lockdowns, erosions of rights and economic destruction. You are part of the problem.

originally posted by: and14263
$100 in haircuts????

Was it worth it? Yes.

Answered already.

originally posted by: av8r007
Definitely agree with you Agustus, we're in a similar line of work. Salespeople of all groups know because our lives go well or bad based on how many valuable sales we can make and earn a comission from. It's as close to being a business owner you can get as an employee, you control a lot of your own outcome. We all as salespeople know anytime you go backward you have to work 2 to 3 times as long to get back to where you were and then to actually move forward to be able to make progress (grow). So if the economy is down a month it will be a minimum of a quarter before you can say things will be okay. And you can increase that for each month shut down. 4 months will be 8-12 months of recovery or longer, 6 months will be a a year to a year and a half. I don't know about you guys, but I don't want to live like that. I say the risk of that outcome is way worse than any effects of COVID-19 and we need to act in the best interest of the whole and these shut downs are not in the best interest.

Nope, bootlickers say it's worth it, your livelihood and earning potential to support yourself and your family take a backseat to their perceived safety.

a reply to: ScepticScot

There comes a death point in any business where cashflow/sales are not equating to the goals and wants of the business owner. At that point most of the time, a business will cease operations and the employees will be let go, you cannot run a company without making a profit, your operations become more difficult to complete, it's like running an engine without oil. For a lot of companies, this isn't very long, I'd say a 2 month average, some who were smart and saved at most a year or so. Without cash flow a business dies, cash is king and rules all of the other critical variables in a business.

originally posted by: ScepticScot
What will matter is that business remain open and functional so that we can supply the goods and services the recovery requires.

How does that happen when I and most others are not spending money? That's one month of my money and the company I worked for that didn't go to anyone. Again, explain to me how my favorite pizza place can recoup a month of lost meals served?

Security companies will be hiring bigly...to keep the homeless from sleeping in vacant stores. And there will be plenty more homeless than there is now.

who says that? The msm? Who listens to them here

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

The economy is elastic. Right now people are sequestered, which is bad for the herd animal.

Once the gate is popped, the herd animal will explode out of it. People will be eating out, partying, buying things they couldn't get during the lockdown.

Businesses have suffered. Some have already gone out of business in my area, mostly small restaurants.

There will be a price, but Trump is right. We'll be back and stronger than ever.

ETA, I, personally, disagree with the lockdown. We should have taken the lumps for the purpose of herd immunity. It's highly infectious, but the rate of death is actually pretty low compared to other causes.

Considering that the government was slated to take in 2.6 trillion in tax revenue this year, and they blew 1.5 trillion in a DAY to add liquidity a few weeks back, not to mention the stimulus packages and the 16+ million out of work, there is NO WAY in fiddly-dee the economy is going to just roar back to life!!

We are realistically looking a 18 months to 2 years before we can even say its "stabilizing". The amount of variables on a socioeconomic level alone are infinite as each individual will have to adjust in some manner during that time.

This is only the first month or so!!

There's a very thin line between optimism and self delusion. The self delusion being a coping mechanism and byproduct of being misled/misinformed, willfully apathetic and unjustly decadent in a market that was artificially inflated before this went pear shaped to begin with!

God help us when the debt bubble bursts!

Currently, I would be more concerned with impending shortages on a majority of goods. If no one is working, how can supplies be maintained???

I saw a member comment that the FED won't allow the economy to fail which is indicative of that same apathetic, misled/misinformed, mentality I mentioned above.

The FED knows it can't be sustained, but their answer to that is, "It works until it doesn't."

Well that's reassuring isn't it?

It would behoove one to start considering some hard truths TODAY, not tomorrow or next month, BUT NOW because in certain aspects, its already too late.

Seems to me the upper classes need handouts.

The middle class needs a running economy.

The lower class needs "handouts".

The middle class were always going to be hit the hardest since they're often the business owners and people who spread the wealth around. Nobody is trading anything but essentials, services are all but dead. Hopefully they've got enough saved or will get the support to pull through this and effectively re-engage the economy.

The lower classes are mostly spending what they'd spend anyways minus a few services and personal pleasures. That's hitting the shops, pubs and clubs. Ultimately though most people in this class cannot do without a pay check and the amount they spend on non essentials is negligible. For instance your weekly expenditures could be 2-3 years of personal expenditure for the lower classes. The numbers add up though, again a massive blow to business owners.

The upper tier of society?

Well personally I say # em. Ultimately they're the whole reason swathes of people live hand to mouth. Even the middle classes are realising a few months knock will devastate them. I don't want to get into global politics, supplies chains and globalism so I'll just say the world has been playing boom and bust for far too long. If world economies collapse then good it needed a restart.

In the end I'm grateful it was a virus of this nature that's bringing these issues up, it could've been something much more devastating, even economically. It seems you want things to go back to normal and fast, well the truth is nothing was normal anyways.