The Myth Of A Rapid Economic Recovery Once Quarentines Are Lifted

Things are going to bounce right back, right? Once we're allowed out of our veal boxes to mix in gen-pop again everything will snap right to, yeah?

No.

No, it won't and it doesn't take a Harvard MBA to figure out why the damage done by just one month is devastating, let alone more or even the 'rolling lockdowns' being moronically discussed right now. All you need is a grasp of basic mathematics and you can run your own numbers why. Let me show you...

I travel, or used to travel prior to this nonsense for work weekly, plus had my own non-work related expenditures that contributed to both my local economy and the places I traveled to. Here is a rough idea of what just one month of shutdowns has PERMANENTLY taken out of the United States economy based on my last full month of work/pre-quarantine personal spend:

• Airfare $5,000
  
• Lodging $1,8000
  
• Meals during the week for myself, direct reports and clients $600
  
• Taxi/limo service $700
  
• Rental cars $400
  
• Family meals at restaurants $400
  
• Gas $150
  
• Haircuts $100
  
• Entertainment $200
  
• Incidentals $400

This isn't counting shopping for clothes or other necessities, which while happening, are not occurring with the same level of spend. That's close to $10,000 that is never going back into the economy, I cannot, once things resume to 'normal' (whatever the hell that turns out to be), go and take 8 airline trips in one week, eat 3 pizzas on a Friday followed by tacos and sushi, take 15 sperate clients out for lunch in one week, get my hair cut 2 times at once, rent 3 cars at once, have my car service drive me to and from Newark Airport 8 times in one week and I'm sure you get the picture. That money is gone. It will never get to the end user since I can't spend it even if I wanted to, it's just not logistically possible to justify.

When you're sitting on your sofa watching the talking heads on the news telling you that this economic destruction is necessary stop and think about the long term impact it has to everyone up and down the supply chain and multiply your lost spend by nearly everyone you know. Businesses will go under. Your favorite restaurant may not be there when insanity finally departs. Your local small business is getting crushed, it's not just the big corporations who can lobby for bailouts that wouldn't have been required is we had an iota of common sense.

Things will not instantly return to normal, this is months, potentially a year or more, of fallout. The small business owner or furloughed employee cannot effectively engage in the economy and this leads to income shortfalls for everyone. Bankruptcies, foreclosures and related incidences will all spike over the summer leading to even more hardship.

Now ask yourself, was it worth it?

originally posted by: Plotus
Perhaps your expendatures might be reduced.

Might? They are reduced, by the amounts I provided. Those numbers cannot be recouped.

Don't set on the couch, go Happen...

Is that a joke? Yeah, I'll travel for sales when all of our customers are shutdown.

Sorry to muck up your OP, I figured differently than participate, carry-on

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Send china the bill.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

The argument will go as follows;

"You don't have someone dying from the virus you selfish bastard!"

. . . . . Which, incidentally, is the same application towards emotion that is used in gun-grabbing arguments.

"You didn't have someone close to you die because of gun violence!"

And the oft-used reply is, "No. Stop. This appeal to emotions is not rational. We have the Constitution which guarantees rights and the restriction of government to interfere with those rights."


This virus should be taken seriously. But it is not. It is being taken, emotionally.

Government "leaders" are reacting instead of being proactive.

They either can't see the end to this or don't want to.

Our economy is on a "vent" right now. And you have one side wanting to pull the plug and the other side saying it didn't need to be on one to begin with, if only we were smart in our responses.

Regardless, once off a "vent" you just can't go back to business as usual. You need to recover.

And you're really never the same again.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

It won't get back to "normal" because businesses will be afraid of further shut downs. No business wants to invest in getting up and running again only to find out we have to shut down again in January because it is "flu season" and a few cases of Covid pop up.

My community is already starting to see some small businesses fail. Owner's saying "F'k it" and closing the doors. One or two months with zero revenue is enough to kill most small businesses that are already under capitalized.

Also, the sheeple will have PTSD. Even if everything is opened, a lot of people will be afraid of congregating in groups, etc. Weddings, birthdays, festivals, etc will all be a fraction of their previous sizes.

originally posted by: Bluntone22
Send china the bill.

Nothing will happen and even if it does it would be far too late when it does for many people to make a difference.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

I believe you are 100% right.

And I keep hearing how everyone will get back to work. As long as they continue to offer unemployment a large percentage of people, especially the 25 and unders who live at home, will milk every last penny of unemployment before returning to work.

There will be people who have families to take care of that have no real option but return to work, but many people won’t.

The unnecessary fear that has been driven into the heads of the masses will not disappear. Even if everything reopened, movie theaters, bars, restaurants and other places where people gather in mass will be greatly affected for a long period of time, as the fearful continue to live in fear.

The people waiting for the vaccine to return to normal might as well just wait for the next mutation of a virus that turns deadly. The threat never ends, it is a threat we always have and likely always will.

Not only will money never be spent that isn’t circulating in the system today, money will not simply jump back into the system as if nothing happened.

But I don’t blame Trump and other politicians for being cheerleaders for the economy, they have no other choice. Travel bans were fine, quarantine the sick. Isolate the elderly and at risk, who wanted to be isolated, and leave the rest of us alone.

This should have been the answer this time and should be the answer next time. And if the majority disagree with me then we need to completely change the way the world works.

originally posted by: Edumakated
It won't get back to "normal" because businesses will be afraid of further shut downs. No business wants to invest in getting up and running again only to find out we have to shut down again in January because it is "flu season" and a few cases of Covid pop up.

You touched on a critical point, businesses typically do not thrive in an uncertain market.

My community is already starting to see some small businesses fail. Owner's saying "F'k it" and closing the doors. One or two months with zero revenue is enough to kill most small businesses that are already under capitalized.

I feel for them as a former business owner. Now people need to look at them and ask, 'They lost their livelihood over government interference, what's next for their personal finances? Bankruptcy? Foreclosure?' That all impacts the future growth of the nation.

Also, the sheeple will have PTSD. Even if everything is opened, a lot of people will be afraid of congregating in groups, etc. Weddings, birthdays, festivals, etc will all be a fraction of their previous sizes.

Which is why we need to get back to normal now. A mandated reopening and if you want to stay in you can stay in.

originally posted by: DBCowboy
And you're really never the same again.

Hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue are gone, much of it forever. No, it will not be the same again.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Saw one of our estimable non American posters crowing about how Greece got through their hard times, so we yanks just need to buck up and roll with it.

It reminded me of the "learn to code" crowd from a few years back. Glib, superficial platitudes while the country starves. A lot of people want it to happen. Our good economy over the last few years has been sticking in their craw.

Wait for the deluge of posts condemning your point of view as "selfish" and "dangerous".

originally posted by: Isurrender73
And I keep hearing how everyone will get back to work. As long as they continue to offer unemployment a large percentage of those people, especially the 25 and unders who live at home will milk every last penny of unemployment before returning to work.

I personally think the majority of people that are newly on unemployment don't want to be on unemployment regardless of their age or place of residence.

originally posted by: TomLawless
Wait for the deluge of posts condemning your point of view as "selfish" and "dangerous".

Guess what? I am selfish because only I am responsible for taking care of me and my family. And if they think I'm dangerous they can stay the **** inside forever like a good veal.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

originally posted by: Isurrender73
And I keep hearing how everyone will get back to work. As long as they continue to offer unemployment a large percentage of those people, especially the 25 and unders who live at home will milk every last penny of unemployment before returning to work.

I personally think the majority of people that are newly on unemployment don't want to be on unemployment regardless of their age or place of residence.

You don’t think the socialist youth who were making minimum wage at now closed department stores around the country who live with mom and dad like unemployment checks?

I think you are out of touch with that crowd. I work with them everyday. Minimum wage is not enough for them to move out on there own. They have no motivation because the system is not set up in their favor.

75% will likely return to work ASAP because they have bills to pay. But the youth hate their jobs, hate their pay rate, and were supporting Bernie Sanders because it sounded like they were going to get a free ride. Welcome to the free ride for the next 6 months or more.

Also where a global economy and even if we open right now we cant force the rest of the world to do the same

We have most things manufactured in china almost every buisness that physically sells items needs something from china

It's going to be a slow recovery alot of people will find out they have no job to return to

a reply to: TomLawless

For three years trump has been saying to bring important manufacturing back home and to make America first. He was chastised as being racist, selfish and dangerous.

I guess we deserve the pain our politicians have given us.

originally posted by: Isurrender73
You don’t think the socialist youth who were making minimum wage at now closed department stores around the country who live with mom and dad like unemployment checks?

Generalizing isn't going to help the problem. People need to step away from their political paradigms for once and see this problem for what it is, complete and total overreaction from all levels and members of government. All of them.

And frankly I don't want this to be a political thread, it's in a forum dedicate to discussing economics, it's not in the Mud Pit for a reason.

originally posted by: markovian
Also where a global economy and even if we open right now we cant force the rest of the world to do the same

Local economies cannot wait around for the rest of the world to get its head on straight.

We have most things manufactured in china almost every buisness that physically sells items needs something from china

Pretty much nothing in my Original Post expenditure list involved items manufactured in China.

It's going to be a slow recovery alot of people will find out they have no job to return to

This part is correct.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

I was not making a political argument. I’m sorry that’s all you saw in my post. Like I said I think you are out of touch with a large segment of the population. I work with the people I mentioned and they make a much lady % of the workforce than many understand.