Covid Economic Recovery: Faster Than You Think

originally posted by: Daughter2
You didn't include travel which is a huge industry. That one will take a very long time to resume.

What will happen is a stagnation of the economy due to the uncertainty. Uncertainty is a business killer.

Just like the movie the Purge, business will adjust to whatever situation is created - they just need to know what's going to happen.

I firmly believe even if we all had to stay in forever, the economy would eventually recover. Industries would be created around isolation. Just like 9/11 originally shut down the air travel related jobs, they came back and thanks to TSA there's even more people are employed at the airport.

But no adjustments and no recovery will be made until all of these "I don't know"s go away.

I did note that in my post but not in detail...

First, a question - Are you scared to get on an airplane if all of the restrictions were lifted? Meaning, will you not fly going forward?

Airline industry employs ~10.2mm people:
aviationbenefits.org...

So yeah, that's a huge swath of the economy... no doubt.

BUT.... are you scared to fly? I'm not, I just can't. My wife already wants to book our next vacation. My mother - who is over 65 and "at risk" (though both my parents workout regularly and are healthy) is frustrated that we can't definitively book our annual family summer vacation. See where I'm going with this?

I used to fly a LOT for work. Don't have to so much now, but I still do 5-10 legs a year. Probably fly for at least one, maybe two vacations a year (Depending on how many legs I do to rack up miles!). As mentioned in my OP, I know at least a dozen people - and that's conservative - who can't wait to get back to traveling.

Do the airlines come back online overnight? No - definitely not. Are they down and out for the next several years? Probably not - or at least I wouldn't take that bet.

Since I had a poster the other day try to get me to "put my money where my mouth is", one of the reasons I went so deep into the energy markets is exactly what I'm pointing out above - we're coming off of literal historic low demand for energy (oil) in modern times. Isn't going to take a lot to bring the energy market back into more of a normal level (say 45-70 USD a barrel) and the airline industry will be a huge boon to that happening.

So, if I'm wrong - i'll pay for it.

originally posted by: liejunkie01
Well ok,

You have to have money to get a haircut. You have to have money to order a burger.

What you are not considering is that the unemployment sector has imploded. People are not getting their money and the bill's are due.

We will see I guess.

I did consider that.

First, unemployment is not a "sector".

Second, you missed the entire point of my thread.... jobs will come back faster than most appreciate.

You do need money to do those things... so the assumption is "huge unemployment means no one can get a haircut". False. Literally NO ONE can get a haircut. I can afford a haircut. I can afford to eat at a restaurant. But that doesn't matter at all if I literally can't do it....

We're talking about 30-90 days of economy impact yet we're talking about this like it was the financial crisis of 2008 - which was IMMENSELY more problematic than current state.

Anyway - now i'm on my soap box. But, yes, I realize people need money to buy stuff. They will have it. This isn't "The Great Recession" part 2 or worse unless the Federal Government screws it up (which is possible).

a reply to: EnigmaChaser


Unfortunately , the Social Programming Instilled in the Public at Large World Wide because of this Covid-19 Virus Alleged Pandemic as of Now will be Considered Irreversible for SOME . Survival of the Fittest Time . God Save Us ALL.........

originally posted by: Zanti Misfit
a reply to: EnigmaChaser


Unfortunately , the Social Programming Instilled in the Public at Large World Wide because of this Covid-19 Virus Alleged Pandemic as of Now will be Considered Irreversible for SOME . Survival of the Fittest Time Now . God Save Us ALL.........

Social programming indeed.

Adversity always brings opportunity. Always.

I went through a period in my life where I was pretty beaten down. I wanted someone to help me and it was overwhelming. No such help arrived and I did not seek it from the government. I had to dig deep, make good (but hard) decisions, sacrifice and work harder than I ever have. Life is much different now and different in a very positive way.

Personal responsibility and accountability were the reasons for that. If someone is going to be conditioned to sit back and take orders - they can't be helped.

Do your friends, family, neighbors and as many humans as you can encounter the favor of instilling empowerment in them. Help them meet their fears head-on. Help them do what will suck today for the benefit of tomorrow - and a whole lot more tomorrows.

Those who are waiting for CNN to tell them it's OK to be a person again are going to get completely decimated and rolled. End of the day, one can feel badly for them but it was their choice - they didn't have to do it that way.

Hopefully more people will wake up.

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

I think that countries that eradicate the virus, using time tested methods, and are therefore 'clean', will become the most affluent trading nations in the world.

All those nations who lag behind and are still infected cannot sell goods to the others, but can only buy. Those nations, if they are already in debt, will go into further debt. It is unlikely that they could recover, even when the virus is eradicated. They will be totally dependent upon the economies of other nations.

The isolationist and nationalist paradigms, combined with the usual repetition of disasters and economic turmoil, has created 'debt slave' nations of those who once thought those concepts were patriotic.

I believe the economy will come roaring back after this is over.

People will release like pent-up animals and spend, spend, spend and hopefully their jobs will be back.

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

Hey , Great Post there !


" Personal responsibility and accountability ....."



Hey , If I am Lyin' I am Dyin' ........)

originally posted by: Krakatoa

originally posted by: nerbot
a reply to: EnigmaChaser

Ok, did you forget the rest of the world?

THIS is where one of the biggest problems lies imo. Only thinking in little boxes.

The ramifications of what is STILL happening won't be understood for a long time.

My sad feeling is that many small businesses won't just go back to doing what they always have as it is already too late for them and many people will be working for the huge corporations, the governments, the emergency and healthcare services, the armed forces and the likes.

The ones Trump has been praising in his daily speeches.

BIG BROTHER will get bigger and those who don't give a damn will suck it up double good while still buying crap from China to fulfill the need for greed.

What you say above may be great for the U.S. but when the U.S. doesn't consider the rest of the world who will care about the U.S.?

Good luck.

I thought before this everyone in the world hates the U.S. So, why should the U.S. give a crap about helping those countries and citizens that openly hated on us before?

Karma's a bitch, huh?

Another eruption?

originally posted by: chr0naut
a reply to: EnigmaChaser

I think that countries that eradicate the virus, using time tested methods, and are therefore 'clean', will become the most affluent trading nations in the world.

All those nations who lag behind and are still infected cannot sell goods to the others, but can only buy. Those nations, if they are already in debt, will go into further debt. It is unlikely that they could recover, even when the virus is eradicated. They will be totally dependent upon the economies of other nations.

The isolationist and nationalist paradigms, combined with the usual repetition of disasters and economic turmoil, has created 'debt slave' nations of those who once thought those concepts were patriotic.

Good to see you, Chr0naut. haven't seen you post in a thread for a little while.

I hear your point and that's a valid one.

My rebuttal to that is simply this - humans can't stay in one emotional state for very long.

Think about it. if we could just always be "happy" - however we define that - we wouldn't have 40mm people in this country (US) who are clinically depressed or have anxiety:
adaa.org...

Point is that people will forget about this relatively quickly once we're "back to normal". We live with lots of "scary" things - but once we become "used to" this I doubt we'll see that kind of negative impact.

Unless, of course, the Federal Government screws it up - which is certainly (And always) on the table.

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: Krakatoa

originally posted by: nerbot
a reply to: EnigmaChaser

Ok, did you forget the rest of the world?

THIS is where one of the biggest problems lies imo. Only thinking in little boxes.

The ramifications of what is STILL happening won't be understood for a long time.

My sad feeling is that many small businesses won't just go back to doing what they always have as it is already too late for them and many people will be working for the huge corporations, the governments, the emergency and healthcare services, the armed forces and the likes.

The ones Trump has been praising in his daily speeches.

BIG BROTHER will get bigger and those who don't give a damn will suck it up double good while still buying crap from China to fulfill the need for greed.

What you say above may be great for the U.S. but when the U.S. doesn't consider the rest of the world who will care about the U.S.?

Good luck.

I thought before this everyone in the world hates the U.S. So, why should the U.S. give a crap about helping those countries and citizens that openly hated on us before?

Karma's a bitch, huh?

Another eruption?

Are You a Responsible Human Being Chewy ? Just Asking , I Am Curious .

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

I think it really depends on a lot of factors.

The ones that would be related to a "normal" virus scenario is whether or not anything resembling "herd immunity" has been achieved. I suspect there are quite a few that have gotten that simply arent in the official numbers, but is it enough to really hit that herd immunity until the next SARS type comes around? I truly hope so.

By lockdowns in the way we did it, we may have prevented it, and may continue to do so. There are some places that didnt, so unless they arent tampered with(...), they should provide data there. Id suspect its a nigh certainty that we will have a 2nd wave (though I suspect we are in it now..) when lockdowns are lifted or in the following months. Then, 'nother lockdown and round and round we go.

It seems many are still asking for all the wrong things in their fear too. Like "Testing" and "The Vaccine." Best case scenario with testing is that it provides a snapshot. The PCR tests are certainly NOT best case scenario though. And the idea of a Vaccine for a coronavirus is.. flawed. More disturbingly is the near complete dismissal of looking for successful treatments, and general immune system health.

That out of the way..

It really depends on what "authorities" really want to accomplish here. Even if they are simply piggybacking on this virus to achieve longterm goals, it will affect any natural economic recovery.

I suspect they are All-In with laying the foundation for a corporate technofascist state. In that, we will see subtle and overt measures to prevent any government stimulus (or natural growth) of mid sized and small businesses. I wouldnt be surprised to see this "faked" either, with large corporations essentially running small/mid sized businesses to show those sectors are "healthy."

I would also expect to see more doublespeak on "decentralization." Its the biggest threat to a lot of these long term plans and they need to make certain that when people think of the term, its associated to a very specific corporate-driven narrative.

Basically, if everything is allowed to happen naturally with only a bit of spurring on by government stimulus.. And, we didnt shoot ourselves in the foot with the total population lockdowns.. Then I do think itll kick back in quite fast. Those are Big "Ifs" though.. And a lot of people have been slowly shifted into a mode of thinking for YEARS that was cemented into place with this event. I dont know if they will let that opportunity go to waste.

originally posted by: Zanti Misfit

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: Krakatoa

originally posted by: nerbot
a reply to: EnigmaChaser

Ok, did you forget the rest of the world?

THIS is where one of the biggest problems lies imo. Only thinking in little boxes.

The ramifications of what is STILL happening won't be understood for a long time.

My sad feeling is that many small businesses won't just go back to doing what they always have as it is already too late for them and many people will be working for the huge corporations, the governments, the emergency and healthcare services, the armed forces and the likes.

The ones Trump has been praising in his daily speeches.

BIG BROTHER will get bigger and those who don't give a damn will suck it up double good while still buying crap from China to fulfill the need for greed.

What you say above may be great for the U.S. but when the U.S. doesn't consider the rest of the world who will care about the U.S.?

Good luck.

I thought before this everyone in the world hates the U.S. So, why should the U.S. give a crap about helping those countries and citizens that openly hated on us before?

Karma's a bitch, huh?

Another eruption?

Are You a Responsible Human Being Chewy ? Just Asking , I Am Curious .

It was an attempt at levity relating to the avatar name of the poster that I was responding to. Probably too obtuse.

Also, I tend to use the 'smiley with tongue out' as an indicator of the emotional tone of the preceding sentence.

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

My opinion-

The bull market was a house of cards.

If we are so well off, why are we throwing trillions around, and not just trillions, more than post 9/11 wars and the 08' bailout combined.

Clearly everything was hanging on a thread. If not, why are we injecting money into corporations, small businesses, and individuals?

Giving out 600 extra on top of unemployment to people who aren't working while people who still are working are getting their salaries cut. How's that make sense?

Two months ago everyone would be discussing this very differently. It's wild how fast this has just become normal, and something that will just "pass us by".

I sure hope you're right, because we're gambling the house this works.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

Don’t know you, but I have the same sentiment as a lot of people including you. All this money being created out of thin air is bad, very bad. The market rally is very very typical in a bear market, shake out the bears for the next leg down. I’m very very bad at trading, but there’s one thing I know about myself, when I feel FOMO do not buy.

I’m not buying anything right now, holding SNY, DIS, DFS, TQQQ and lesser amounts in about 20 other companies.

50% cash for the next leg down.

The same ones predicting the economy will boom back are the first ones to take chipped vaccine...This bird is cooked...cabin fever is frying many brains...this is the beginning of the end.. Who pays for all the stock/food when restaurants open? The wholesalers have to stock their warehouses..with what? The supply chain will collapse..a reply to: EnigmaChaser

a reply to: nerbot

My sad feeling is that many small businesses won't just go back to doing what they always have as it is already too late for them and many people will be working for the huge corporations, the governments, the emergency and healthcare services, the armed forces and the likes. 

It seems this is where were headed...

The ones Trump has been praising in his daily speeches. 

Almost as if he is the chosen one, just not the peoples saviour as they had hoped.

a reply to: Willtell

People will release like pent-up animals and spend, spend, spend and hopefully their jobs will be back.

Back to the good ol' days of Boom and Bust.

The one thing we all should learn from this is we can not go back to the way things were, we need to make some real and positive changes to the way this world works.
How?
I don't know, I'm no expert, never professed to be.....I just know that some things have to change.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

I sure hope you're right, because we're gambling the house this works.

edit on 12-4-2020 by CriticalStinker because: 

Its fair to as assume at this point the ruling class have lost control and were in uncharted territory.

originally posted by: Bigbrooklyn
The same ones predicting the economy will boom back are the first ones to take chipped vaccine...This bird is cooked...cabin fever is frying many brains...this is the beginning of the end.. Who pays for all the stock/food when restaurants open? The wholesalers have to stock their warehouses..with what? The supply chain will collapse..a reply to: EnigmaChaser

This is nonsense.

I scaled the potential unemployment scenario so my brain is fried from being “stuck in the house” and now I’m going to get chipped or shot full of a federal mandated vaccine happily?

Incorrect.

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: Willtell

People will release like pent-up animals and spend, spend, spend and hopefully their jobs will be back.

Back to the good ol' days of Boom and Bust.

The one thing we all should learn from this is we can not go back to the way things were, we need to make some real and positive changes to the way this world works.
How?
I don't know, I'm no expert, never professed to be.....I just know that some things have to change.

It has always been that way... always.

It’s called an Economic “Cycle” for a reason....

And yes, things will change - they also always have. Perhaps people should ask if they’re changing with the times or getting left behind?