Let's Take A Look Back At China

a reply to: Bicent

Read my post 5 posts above as my response. How stupid it would be to just wait until massive amounts of people get sick before you do anything about it. The hell with all your aging family and friends and even children and young adults with underlying health conditions right? Let's just let it run its course and whomever does F*** em right? How foolish.

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
How about Italy?

How about Germany, that has consistently maintained a CFR of around 0.2%, and currently has half again as many cases as we do.

Also, current USA numbers, of the 8,175 open cases, virtually 100% are mild, only 12 are serious/critical.

Yeah, lets shut down the entire country, makes sense...

a reply to: tanstaafl

How about Germany, that has consistently maintained a CFR of around 0.2%, and currently has half again as many cases as we do.

Proactive testing then containment. Containment is the first step in controlling a pandemic. Something that didnt happen in the U.S.

Also, current USA numbers, of the 8,175 open cases, virtually 100% are mild, only 12 are serious/critical.

Did you forget about the 150 that have died? Do you suppose they weren't critical before they died?

Also consider the following.


On 03/10/2020 we had 924 covid-19 cases in the U.S. Today there is 9,345 cases. That's 8,421 new cases in the last 8 days. That means over 90% of U.S. cases have been found in only the last 8 days.

The time between exposure to a contagious illness and the onset of symptoms is called the “incubation period.” the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has estimated the incubation period for COVID-19 to be from 2–14 days.

DO THE MATH

For many people it is going to take at least a few weeks before they even begin to really start to feel the affects of covid-19. Then another few weeks or a month to either die or recover.

97% of the current known cases in the U.S. have yet to have an outcome, meaning they have not yet recovered or died yet. Only 60 people have recovered so far dude and 150 have died. Now you can see that we are just in the very early stages of this pandemic and this explains why you think it's so mild. Sad to say the mortality rate will go up, you just got to give people a little time to die.

a reply to: tanstaafl

By the way its 80% that will have a mild case not 99%.

Nationally, based on 40 percent prevalence of COVID-19 over the course of the pandemic, we estimate that 98,876,254 individuals will be infected, 20,598,725 individuals will likely require hospitalization and 4,430,245 individuals will need ICU-level care. 

source

a reply to: tanstaafl

From the CDC 20% of hospitalized patients are between age 20 and 44

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
a reply to: tanstaafl
"How about Germany, that has consistently maintained a CFR of around 0.2%, and currently has half again as many cases as we do."

Proactive testing then containment. Containment is the first step in controlling a pandemic. Something that didnt happen in the U.S.

Prove it, or your just guessing.

"Also, current USA numbers, of the 8,175 open cases, virtually 100% are mild, only 12 are serious/critical."

Did you forget about the 150 that have died? Do you suppose they weren't critical before they died?

No. The USA, currently, by the numbers (155 dead as of now - but @ 20% - 30 - from the one group care facility in Washington State), is showing about a 1.6% CFR, which, once testing results start accumulating, is only going to go down dramatically.

Also consider the following.

On 03/10/2020 we had 924 covid-19 cases in the U.S. Today there is 9,345 cases. That's 8,421 new cases in the last 8 days. That means over 90% of U.S. cases have been found in only the last 8 days.

Exactly - but you don't seem to realize the significance. Allow me to pontificate...

This is not because the virus has started spreading like wildfire in the last 1-2 weeks. It is because wide-spread testing has only now begun to roll out, revealing that this thing is already in the wild, with many many people already being infected, but - as the numbers I already quoted show - the vast majority only experiencing mild or no symptoms.

The time between exposure to a contagious illness and the onset of symptoms is called the “incubation period.” the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has estimated the incubation period for COVID-19 to be from 2–14 days.

DO THE MATH

Already done - but you seem to be of the 'new math' persuasion - you know, that math that says kids can get partial credit for being 'close', or for 'effort' or some other ridiculousness. I'm of the old school math.

For many people it is going to take at least a few weeks before they even begin to really start to feel the affects of covid-19. Then another few weeks or a month to either die or recover.

And again, the vast majority will feel no or only minor symptoms, which means they will not even seek a test, so will never be counted in these stats.

Regardless, the ones who are being counted are all we have to go by, and, to borrow some goalposts from the fear-mongers from back in January - lets wait a few weeks and see what the wide-spread testing reveals.

And incidentally, I have said and I reiterate, I hope that they go backwards in time, and test every person that has died of anything that could be the WuFlu but wasn't recorded as death by WuFlu, to provide a more accurate CFR.

97% of the current known cases in the U.S. have yet to have an outcome, meaning they have not yet recovered or died yet. Only 60 people have recovered so far dude and 150 have died.

Recovered is now up to 108, dude, deaths are now 155, which still shows about a 1.6% CFR. I expect the recovered to start climbing dramatically, over the next few weeks. Time will tell if I'm right.

Now you can see that we are just in the very early stages of this pandemic

That is one thing you seem to be missing...

We are not in the early stages. We are only a few weeks at most behind China, because this thing has been spreading since November or December, weeks or even a month or two before any restrictions, lockdowns, quarantines etc were put in place. Meaning, it has been here for months.

and this explains why you think it's so mild. Sad to say the mortality rate will go up, you just got to give people a little time to die.

You can keep hoping for this, but thankfully, you'll see how wrong you are soon enough.

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
a reply to: tanstaafl

By the way its 80% that will have a mild case not 99%.

I'm not interested in estimates.

My 99% number was not an estimate, it is the real, current, actual number of open cases in the US.

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
a reply to: tanstaafl
From the CDC 20% of hospitalized patients are between age 20 and 44

Yes, but hospitalized doesn't mean serious/critical. From your link, 12% were in intensive care - still a significant number, admittedly.

I have been saying for a while now, that underlying serious health problems are a much bigger factor than simple age, so, I suggest that any conversation about a number like this is incomplete at best - let's see the stats on these young people. How many of the ones in serious condition had underlying problems.

a reply to: tanstaafl

In Omaha, Ne: A 46-year-old man who showed symptoms on March 11, went to the hospital on March 15, and tested positive of COVID-19 on March 17.

"His symptoms are mild, he experienced fatigue and cough but already had a baseline cough," Pour said. The man was placed in intensive care but his condition has since improved.

Intensive care...for very mild symptoms. 7 days until it went bye bye. This thing is a joke.

originally posted by: BoscoMoney
a reply to: tanstaafl
Intensive care...for very mild symptoms. 7 days until it went bye bye. This thing is a joke.

Well... the fear-mongering and panic is a joke in relation to the actual threat, but as I have said, both of my parents are high-risk, and this is not a joke for them, or anyone with serious underlying health conditions. Please don't provide fodder for the fear-mongers with blanket statements like that.

But yes, these details - people placed in the ICU, so likely counted in the 'serious/critical' stats - are important to determine the true nature of the threat. And one has to wonder why that would happen.

I can see people being hospitalized 'for observation', or at least a percentage of them - but if I were one, I would make it very clear that if they keep me in the hospital against my will, neither I nor my insurance company will be financially responsible for the bills.

a reply to: tanstaafl

Yes, you're right. There are people who are definitely high risk. I understand the need to try and minimize the spread.

The fear mongering and out and out lies are out of control and don't do anyone any good. Its almost like a contest here.

I certainly hope your parents remain unaffected and safe.

originally posted by: BoscoMoney
a reply to: tanstaafl

Yes, you're right. There are people who are definitely high risk. I understand the need to try and minimize the spread.

The fear mongering and out and out lies are out of control and don't do anyone any good. Its almost like a contest here.

I certainly hope your parents remain unaffected and safe.

Thanks, and same goes for any of yours who may be at risk, and everyone else.

Like you though, I do get tired of being accused of saying 'its a nothing burger' or 'its just the flu', when I have never, ever, said that, I'm merely pointing to the numbers and saying "Wtf are you getting your panties in a wad about?"...

What we should be doing is protecting those most at risk. Quarantine the old folks homes, require care-givers to live in with them for a month, issue specific guidelines both directly to those at risk, and their loved ones, with recommendations that all should follow to minimize their risk.

Then, do more things like this: I recently read a story about how some stores were modifying their hours (shortening them), to provide time to thoroughly clean them, then, providing a few hours after first opening when only the elderly or at risk people could shop (so they would be much less exposed to potential infection), then and only then would others be allowed to shop.

These kinds of things can be done and would result in much better protection, with dramatically less negative economic impact on everyone else.

a reply to: tanstaafl

I just think there's no "right" answer. I agree with what you say, but there are so many variables when it comes to actually doing it. My Mom and Grandmother died from cancer and are long gone, so maybe its easy for me to be dismissive.

A little thing about stores opening for older folks, at least Dollar General. Its all PR. At DG its the first hour the store is open, so get up early all you old folks when its nice and cold out and hurry in(!)...and the employees are not allowed to bar anyone else from coming in,which completely destroys the reason for doing the whole thing. Don't get me started on the risks the store employees have to swallow and work their butts off to serve a hypocritical audience of grumpy nasty customers who, without the employees to operate the store wouldnt have access to their daily greedy hoarding(We live in a small town and DG is the biggest store in town). The place has been packed with people every day for a solid week and a half now. Forget not spreading, forget social distancing.

Enough rambling. I still believe this virus, as a whole, and definately at odds with some of the MSM and doom threads, is a lightweight overhype and will burn out over the course of the next 3 months.

a reply to: tanstaafl

You can keep hoping for this, but thankfully, you'll see how wrong you are soon enough.

I just wanted to come back (as planned) and point out how right I am now that a little time has passed.

Have a good day!

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
a reply to: tanstaafl

By the way its 80% that will have a mild case not 99%.

I'm not interested in estimates.

My 99% number was not an estimate, it is the real, current, actual number of open cases in the US.

Yet in your very next post right below this one here that I quoted you admit that at least 12% of cases go to intensive care.

Time has shown me to be correct and you to be a joke.

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
a reply to: tanstaafl
"You can keep hoping for this, but thankfully, you'll see how wrong you are soon enough."

I just wanted to come back (as planned) and point out how right I am now that a little time has passed.

Actually, no, you're not. Yes, the numbers have fluctuated a little, and yes, the USA CFR is a little higher at 1.7% now, and Germany's has risen to 0.8%, but they certainly hasn't jumped to the huge numbers you were predicting, and they will go down again, once these new 5 minute tests Trump just announced roll out.

But by all means, doom-porn away, I know it makes you feel better...

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
Yet in your very next post right below this one here that I quoted you admit that at least 12% of cases go to intensive care.

I'm pretty sure you're making that up too, but by all means, linky...

Time has shown me to be correct and you to be a joke.

Yes, we are all legends in our own minds...

a reply to: tanstaafl

Count them. 10 posts above this one. No need to link. Quote from you yourself.

Time is making you look the fool more and more every day.

Hope your parents are doing well.

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
a reply to: tanstaafl
Count them. 10 posts above this one.

Ok, so you can't link to it, but hope no one will go and actually look...

So, I counted... and here is what I actually said:

"Yes, but hospitalized doesn't mean serious/critical. From your link, 12% were in intensive care - still a significant number, admittedly."

"From your link..."

Meaning, if the data from your link is correct... which I was not admitting to...

The numbers I was referring to - that are no longer being shown by worldometers for the USA for highly suspect reasons (doesn't play to their narrative) - again, plainly showed 1-5% in serious/critical condition.

It is called reading comprehension.

But thanks for playing.

a reply to: Alien Abduct

I bet the people that were arguing with you will come in and move the goalposts again and try to downplay this some more. Seems to be the pattern here.

But was a little refreshing reading the debate here and seeing that you bumped the conversation. These debates continue to happen.. At some point in time this will peak and the naysayers will eventually be correct. I just hope to god we stop having closet doctors and statistical analysis PHD's on this site that continue to spread misinformation.