Corona Virus Updates Part 3

originally posted by: jedi_hamster
unless you can prove your credentials are better than his, your opinion about his research is just that - an opinion.

OK..

rejecting something just because it's not peer-reviewed, when everyone and their grandma are trying to hide as many truths about this outbreak as possible, just isn't a reasonable course of action.

Firstly, I don't think anybody is trying to hide "as many truths as possible" about this outbreak. That sounds like a whole lot of conjecture, which is quite probably based on anecdotes and even more conjecture.

Secondly, peer-review ensures that studies, papers, etc... properly utilize the scientific method, and that the findings are valid, can be objectively verified and tested, etc. If it cannot, then the study is worth nothing more than the paper it is written on.

what he's saying sounds logical.

OK. Have you researched the claims that he is making? Have you checked yourself to see if there are flaws in his research? Or do you just nod your head because you think what he is saying is logical, and you feel you don't need to verify his claims?

if you can find a flaw in his research, post it.

I will hopefully have the time/energy this evening to sift through the entire video and make a very long post with lots of sources that are in conflict with the very things he is claiming.

it's more likely that he's right, than you are just by rejecting his research on the basis of not being peer-reviewed. also, as i recall, he's not the only one making claims about it being extremely unlikely for this virus to occur naturally, but i really don't have time at this moment to find other sources saying the same thing. they were posted in previous threads, that i'm sure of.

There were several: the paper itself (which was submitted to a pre-print website that is highly dubious at best), Tom Cotton, some German magazine, etc. A whole bunch, but it is all just wild speculation. We have nothing conclusive to indicate that this virus was artificially engineered. That is not an opinion, that is a fact.

I get the feeling that you buy into this nonsense so continue subscribing to this nonsense. Conspiracy theories are entertaining.

originally posted by: jedi_hamster
unless you can prove your credentials are better than his,

If I had a penny for every time someone with credentials was wrong about something, I'd be a very wealthy man.

Wuhan citizen documents his life dealing with coronavirus,China武漢市民在病毒下的生活


This video has subtitles. Has lost one family member with another one sick. Virus is very dangerous for the elderly and sick, more have died than officially reported. Commonly spreads through families. Gets geared up and takes a journey to the shops. Prices have gone up.

originally posted by: jedi_hamster
this virus was circulating for at least 2 months in Wuhan already when it all blew up. we're one month after that.

Yes - and during those first two months, there was unfettered travel to/from WuHan to/from everywhere else, so, all of those asymptomatic but shedding travelers, spreading it all over the world, for 2 months...

And we are up to a whopping 15 cases here in the USA?

Do you not see the disconnect there? We should be well on our way to hundreds if not thousands of cases, and more than a few deaths. But 15 - and of those, apparently none serious, much less any deaths?

Something isn't right, and it isn't my maths.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: jedi_hamster

Considering even with the extreme outliers of 24 days (and those outliers have been logically explained by two separate exposures), the median incubation period in papers remains between 3 to 5 days.

Think about it. The one paper *with* a 24 day outlier, *still* had a median incubation of 3 days. How many had to show symptoms before 3 days to balance that 1 extreme and produce that median result?

Now ask your self how often you are actually going to see a 24 day incubation.

Thanks for injecting some sanity ketsuko...

a reply to: Adphil28

Heh, you haven't been paying attention to American media lately. Get one outlet to bite, and all the other ones use the first as their verification. It doesn't matter if the first ran with crap.

a reply to: tanstaafl

Don't get me wrong. I think this can still cause major problems. I think it's wise for the military to be preparing their pandemic plans. But I still think there's a disconnect between what we're seeing outside China and inside.

originally posted by: slatesteam
a reply to: burdman30ott6
I’m thinking no as we’ve gone from “15” cases to 1k quarantined in LA county.

Sensationalize, much?

They recently came from China, and were asked to self-quarantine at home.

If that’s not 0-60, or traveling a parsec in 12.3 seconds, I dunno what is.

It isn't, it is going from 0-0.

It is a sane thing to do, for anyone recently coming from China, and people shouldn't even have to be told to do it.

a reply to: ketsuko

Didnt I say “decent news outlet”

a reply to: armakirais

When people will run for stuff, they will all go the same time.... This is why i prepare in advance....

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: burdman30ott6
Unless there's another bug running loose in China.

Or (something that does actually worry me a bit) there is some kind of secondary payload that causes the severe illnesses/deaths.

a reply to: jedi_hamster

This guy, is balls deep in the tracking of SARS-cov-2 genome. He clearly states there is no evidence of engineering or lab breakout etc. SARS-cov-2 has evolved from a natural origin, it's not the first to do so and it won't be the last.

epi.washington.edu...
Affiliate Assistant Professor, Epidemiology
Affiliate Assistant Professor, Genome Sciences

PhD Biology, Harvard University, 2008
BA Biological Sciences, University of Chicago, 2002

A scientist at the forefront of an international effort to track the deadly coronavirus outbreak has shot down claims about the disease’s origins, including that it escaped from a Wuhan laboratory after being genetically engineered.

Trevor Bedford, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, rubbished stories circulating on social media that Covid-19 was created at Wuhan Institute of Virology or elsewhere in China, rumours that prompted the World Health Organization to warn of an “infodemic” of false news on the outbreak.

“There is no evidence whatsoever of genetic engineering that we can find,” he said at the American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting in Seattle. “The evidence we have is that the mutations [in the virus] are completely consistent with natural evolution.”

www.ft.com...

www.dailymail.co.uk...

This also debunks Tennisdawg and proves that he is an actor taking advantage of the gullible and feeble minded.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: tanstaafl
Don't get me wrong. I think this can still cause major problems. I think it's wise for the military to be preparing their pandemic plans.

Agreed, and agreed... I am prepping a bit myself, mainly to make sure we have food and water to ride out for a few months, at my folks house up in the mountains...

But I still think there's a disconnect between what we're seeing outside China and inside.

I don't see how anyone can not see the disconnect.

a reply to: tanstaafl

Sensationalize?! Don’t shoot the messenger yo.

Also know this. If you think we are only at 15 cases....
Well yeah your math is off. Relax yo. Just reporting what is already out there?

And yeah self-quarantine is a sensible thing to do.
Kinda like shutting off/limiting travel from China would’ve been....

a reply to: tanstaafl

Just not terribly feasible in a bug like this. That would make it a really big virus. Those don't go airborne because they can't effectively.

That's aside from it being a sci-fi type concept. It's less of a stretch to think they released this to cover the escape of something else.

originally posted by: tanstaafl
It is a sane thing to do, for anyone recently coming from China, and people shouldn't even have to be told to do it.

Yeah, they shouldn't... but there a lot of selfish and clueless people in this world.

As an example, my brother. He's the type who refuses to get his flu shot (didn't even vaccinate his kids), never took extra precautions to prevent me from getting sick when I had to stay with him (I have 28% lung function and an immunodeficiency) such as extra hand washing or staying away from me/smoked downstairs even after I told him repeatedly that his smoke was coming through the vent and was making me cough, etc. His girlfriend is the same way, unfortunately. Neither of them think--I swear, they wouldn't remember to f*cking inhale if you didn't tell them otherwise.

I fully expect those two to ignore any self-quarantine measures. Their view will likely be "F*ck it, we need to do things, everybody else can get bent!"

I associate with them as little as possible.

a reply to: weirdguy

Okay so this guy is “balls deep”. Where were you to refute the claim late last thread where I point out it looks like this is a chimaera based on a recently released paper stating as much. Pretty sure I’ve read here that the mutation level is lower than what would be found from a naturally occurring virus. So much info to sift through, would’ve been nice for CCP to just be open and honest so we dont have to slog through this and sling mud at one another

originally posted by: slatesteam
a reply to: tanstaafl
Sensationalize?! Don’t shoot the messenger yo.

Not shooting, just saying...

Also know this. If you think we are only at 15 cases....

I don't think, it is reported here.

Well yeah your math is off.

Not my maths, theirs... go complaiun to thems.

Relax yo.

What are you, thirteen?

Just reporting what is already out there?

No, you're senastionalizing. Saying that 1k people 'have been quareantined', without details, when the reality is that about 1k people who recently came here from China were kindly asked to self-quarantine, and are being monitored, is sensationalizing.

And yeah self-quarantine is a sensible thing to do.
Kinda like shutting off/limiting travel from China would’ve been...

Sensible, maybe, practical? That's something else.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: tanstaafl

Just not terribly feasible in a bug like this. That would make it a really big virus. Those don't go airborne because they can't effectively.

That's aside from it being a sci-fi type concept. It's less of a stretch to think they released this to cover the escape of something else.

I know... I didn't say I was losing sleep over it, just worrying a bit - because I like to worry to an extent (it doesn't stress me out though)...

a reply to: tanstaafl

Okay bud. There’s a reason I’ve gone onto dispute and maybe even argue points with others on here besides you.

Btw your claim its 0-0 might be something you wanna take up with the people in China that lost their Valentine or others close to them.

13 and a half tyvm....

Have a good one