Harvard Epidemiologist calling the Wu-Flu -“thermonuclear pandemic level bad"

a reply to: ketsuko

This will be scary. This will be bad, but most of us will survive it unless we're being lied to about the 3 to 4% mortality rate.

I read something that made me think more into the mortality rate number. Originally I thought the number was pretty low for the attention this was receiving... And admittedly, I didn't really get the bigger picture. But I read somewhere that even if China was being honest about the number... That was the mortality rate with a still functioning infrastructure.

They said if the hospitals get overloaded, and quarantines got more extreme... The lack of supplies and treatment could really change that number.

I'm at a crossroads with admitting I don't understand all of this because I'm not a doctor, but being cognizant media is gonna do media things and milk all they can from a story. So I'll reside in not trying to downplay it, but not panicking.

I think some of you people actually get off on predicting doom and gloom for the world. It’s just not worth worrying about.

a reply to: BillyJoeeOzark

He has pulled back from the high estimate see below



twitter.com...
Pinned Tweet
Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
·
21h
UPDATE: Transmission of #coronoavirus estimated at 2.6 by another research group (lower than the 3.8 initial reports). But 2.6 is still extremely bad —each infected person will infect 2.6 others. Even the authors admit #CoronaOutbreak containment will be very difficult. Thread:

originally posted by: Trueman
a reply to: Flyingclaydisk

 I've noticed a significant uptick in Asian travelers wearing face masks! This, to the point where I seldom see an Asian person without one at an airport. And all of this was happening before the whole Wu-flu thing. I wonder why that is?

They were wearing masks for a different reason, the polutioned air.

Now they're forced to wear masks in China not to protect them, but to prevent spreading from contaminated people when they cough or sneeze.

Masks are worthless to protect from sneezing and coughing...unless one also has their eyes protected.

Harvard Epidemiologist calling the Wu-Flu -“thermonuclear pandemic level bad"

Define thermonuclear pandemic level bad.

1. Jeremiah Tv Series level bad.

2. Contaigon Movie level bad.

3. The Crazies Movie level bad.

Enquiring minds want to know.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

Better print it out if you want to revisit it.

Excellent recommendation. I have noticed over several years that the big MSM boys especially the Microsoft's MSN.COM. They will run an article months after it was first released then pull it after 15 minutes. Never to be seen again. INTEL has a name for that type of brainwashing.

a reply to: Metallicus

It’s just not worth worrying about

CORRECT: The above is the one of the recommendations for all based on medical opinions along with exercise to combat this stuff.

Don't eat, drink, or smoke after others. Avoid close contact with people who are sick, especially if they have fever, cough, and/or a sore throat. Get sufficient sleep, exercise regularly, manage stress, drink plenty of fluids, and eat nutritious foods.

University of Texas at Austin

edit on 26-1-2020 by Waterglass because: bad link

a reply to: BillyJoeeOzark

The CFR (case fatality rate) is also alarming, too high and it kills quicker than it can spread. the estimated CFR for this is about 3%. Doesn't sound that high, but the spanish flu epidemic kill 60-80 million people and it only had a CFR of 2.5%. The coronavirus is in the sweet spots for both communicability and mortality.

a reply to: CriticalStinker
The mortality rate for the spanish flu was only 2.5% and it killed 60 million

originally posted by: IAMTAT

originally posted by: Trueman
a reply to: Flyingclaydisk

 I've noticed a significant uptick in Asian travelers wearing face masks! This, to the point where I seldom see an Asian person without one at an airport. And all of this was happening before the whole Wu-flu thing. I wonder why that is?

They were wearing masks for a different reason, the polutioned air.
Now they're forced to wear masks in China not to protect them, but to prevent spreading from contaminated people when they cough or sneeze.

Masks are worthless to protect from sneezing and coughing...unless one also has their eyes protected.

That's right. I gave each member of my family a N95 mask+safety glasses combo. Even if I know that won't protect them 100%.

doom porn lol.

will it suck if it goes huge?

omg yes.

can i do anything about it?

no.

will the human race survive, as a certain percentage will be immune?

yes.

can i worry about such events, or be 'terrified' by 'doom porn?'

no.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

3 to 4% is still high enough to be very, very scary especially if many get deathly ill at the same time.

You'rye talking about something that hits a lot of people, hits them very hard, takes them out for a long time, and out of roughly every 100 will take an average of 3 or 4 in dramatic fashion. Many will need medical care to recover, and that infrastructure will be overwhelmed quickly.

That will lead to people dying who might not otherwise die. It will lead to fear and possible social breakdown because so many will be sick at once. And it will be horrific because so many will die at once.

3 to 4% of 1,000,000 is 40,000 all dying within a short period of time. Wuhan has 11 million. That's 440,000. That's a lot to die all at once, and there won't be much rhyme nor reason to who dies like there is with seasonal flu. That will make it scarier because no one is safe.

originally posted by: dantanna
doom porn lol.
will it suck if it goes huge?
omg yes.
can i do anything about it?
no.
will the human race survive, as a certain percentage will be immune?
yes.
can i worry about such events, or be 'terrified' by 'doom porn?'
no.

That's what I'm talking about. Sad to see people just giving up without even trying instead of take it like a "disaster drill" and improve.

originally posted by: Waterglass
a reply to: BillyJoeeOzark
In my opinion the Seattle newspaper began intentionally hiding and under reporting facts several days ago on the virus as one confirmed CDC case is a resident who entered Seattle airport and US customs. Look at the link and story to find anything about it. They hid it deep.

The Seattle Times

They hid it deep ON THE FIRST PAGE with a comprehensive article.

www.seattletimes.com...

This entire process is getting interesting, how long does it take for the original article to go through the peer review process? Time will quickly confirm or contradict their data points, more articles like this should continue to appear as the disease moves through population groups. The authors do seem to be subject matter experts in their field, I could not find much on the 2nd author of the article though.

Here is a link to another article written by a post-doc and research associate at UNC who study CoV.

Return of the Coronavirus: 2019 nCoV

MDPI can spew out trash, but it sometimes serves as a jumping point to viable publications, which we will not see for awhile because of how recent the data points are. They do make some valid points with aggregated data. I like seeing how different people with a background of studying the virus foresee the progression of the outbreak.

Some information from the article:

The source of the 2019-nCoV is still unknown, although the initial cases have been associated with the Huanan South China Seafood Market. While many of the early patients worked in or visited the market, none of the exported cases had contact with the market, suggesting either human to human transmission or a more widespread animal source.

Severe illness with 2019-nCoV has been associated with elderly patients (>60 years old), including twenty-six lethal cases. These findings correspond to increased severity and death in people over the age of 50 following both SARS and MERS-CoV infection [...] patients that have succumbed to the novel CoV had significant health conditions including hypertension, diabetes, heart and/or kidney function issues that may have made them more susceptible. For the MERS-CoV outbreak, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and/or other chronic illnesses have been present in the majority of deaths

a contaminated fomite from the market may also be responsible as surfaces all around the market were found to test positive 2019-nCoV. However, the major increase in the number of cases, the lack of direct connection to the Wuhan market for many cases, and the infection of health care works all suggest human to human spread is likely

The recent reports of numerous infected health care workers in Wuhan indicate human to human infection can occur with 2019-nCoV and may be the product of a super spreading patient [44]. However, while large swaths of healthcare workers are not getting sick as seen with SARS and MERS-CoV, it may be too early to rule out their potential exposure to the novel CoV as their disease may be asymptomatic.

However, roughly 10% of SARS- and MERS-CoV patients have been associated with super spreading and an R0 > 10. These cases seeded a significant portion of the epidemic around the world. Notably, neither mutations in the viruses nor severity of disease were found to be associated with super spreading, implying that host factors contribute to the phenotype [...] the recent increase in cases, both in and outside Wuhan could signal the existence of super-spreading individuals fueling the outbreak. Alternatively, super spreading could occur from the zoonotic source which has been seen in other disease outbreaks.

EU / Rapid risk assesment nCoV


Risk assessment


Risk assessment:


"recovering confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV should be deferred as donors for at least 28 days after symptom resolution and completion of therapy,due to the present uncertainty regardingpossible persistence of viremia and/or viral shedding in body fluids. "

a reply to: Kenzo

“28 days...”!

Now where have I heard That number before?

!!!!!!

a reply to: Bhadhidar

Yes, somebody here writed about the 28 earlyer , i dont like that number at all ...i hope it is not actually even true , 28 is long time man ..

a reply to: BillyJoeeOzark


I read that expert's analysis and it's very but didn't read any suggestions on what to do. He did mention the WHO should declare an emergency.

a reply to: Willtell

WHO waiting this long to declare an emergency is going to go down in history as criminally negligent imo.