Robots will have an IQ of 10,000 in 30 years

Something to ponder... they can only learn and retain in memory, that which is introduced and programmed. Man's knowledge is not infinite. Imagine the loss of the
Library of Alexandria.

originally posted by: Kandinsky
Until we see/experience genuine AI we can't really know what it's going to be like or how it relates to the human condition.

Yeah, that's the rub. We think like humans because we were born and raised as humans, with all the inherent advantages and limitations. It is literally impossible for me as a human to imagine what kind of freaky web-mind intelligence will arise out of real AI, with its "body" spread across the globe, a billion camera eyes watching everything, and the accumulated knowledge of mankind readily available to it. Imagine what a river would think if it had that capability. Something like that. Flowing, moving, self-aware and searching for ????????? "I exist in a physical universe. Now what?"

I once thought for a while that we could try building bodies for the AI, to give it a taste of pain and pleasure simulated to roughly match our own, so it would understand us a little better. And maybe there will be a transitional form of that. But lately I think that will just be bypassed. It won't bother with it.

originally posted by: surnamename57
Wouldn’t we be better governed with more logic, calculations and transparency by AI systems designed not to make terrible choices [...]?

We also wouldn't have compassion and "slack." Would you be okay if an AI program decided that what you do is too inefficient and unnecessary to keep you alive?

originally posted by: Blue Shift

originally posted by: surnamename57
Wouldn’t we be better governed with more logic, calculations and transparency by AI systems designed not to make terrible choices [...]?

Would you be okay if an AI program decided that what you do is too inefficient and unnecessary to keep you alive?

Are you hinting at a conspiracy?
Isn’t it typically American to view everything as a result of an evil plan formulated in secret?

While I’m not at all proficient at the simulation of human intelligence processes by machines, I am under the impression that any open-source software is a notable example of open collaboration.

The above is just an idea that serves to urge the imagination and banish any fear or suspicion.

originally posted by: surnamename57
Are you hinting at a conspiracy?

Not at all. It would all be completely transparent and public. The AI will crunch the numbers, possibly seeking to fulfill its programming to "help humanity," and it could determine that nothing you do and nothing in your background would suggest that you are helping humanity in any way, and you're just more "drag" than "thrust." So you're scheduled for termination. Nothing personal.

Isn’t it typically American to view everything as a result of an evil plan formulated in secret?

Not necessarily. Sometimes the machinery that controls our lives runs clear and out in the open. Besides, one person's "conspiracy" is another person's "business partnership."

a reply to: Blue Shift

If after 100 or 200 years you start
a new life in a different body (lol), then you will probably think in a different way.

a reply to: shawmanfromny

So if my calculations are right they would exceed us next year same time?

originally posted by: surnamename57
If after 100 or 200 years you start a new life in a different body (lol), then you will probably think in a different way.

If that happens, I'll buy you a Coke.

originally posted by: Blue Shift

originally posted by: surnamename57
If after 100 or 200 years you start a new life in a different body (lol), then you will probably think in a different way.

If that happens, I'll buy you a Coke.

I offer my thanks to you, but I don't drink coke. If you buy me a beer, that will make me happier.

Its such a damn fascinating subject..

But, I think the reality may be that when "true" AI has really hit the ground running, it will become so alien in such a short amount of time as to be unfathomable.

Right now we can't do much more than project what we know about ourselves, which paints some really ugly possibilities. One better case scenario is that it is nothing like us, and can actually learn and grow from our mistakes.

Of course, just because its nothing like us doesn't mean that'll be a good thing either. Probably the truest-to-form Pandora's Box that we have encountered as a species.

Caution is probably warranted, but even if we "officially" placed restrictions or even ceased all progress.. someone, somewhere will end up doing it anyway. We are a funny species like that.

I suppose we will find out whether or not its a good idea regardless.

I truly believe the alarm you sounding here OP. 30 years? What was the 'internet' itself 30 years ago? Nothing at all even measurable compared to today. Another poster mentions 200 years. In 200 years? Forget about it. That will be beyond our imaginations at this point.

Technology is certainly progressing at an exponential rate. And while people complain about how dumb it is making your average citizen supposedly, it is also making others exponentially smarter especially when it comes to tech.

There are grade school kids out there who can code circles around the brightest developers there are. And just like AI they can teach themselves with the unlimited amount of information right at their fingertips.

Our only hope is those with said abilities will not open pandoras box one day but it is inevitable.

I'm with muzzleflash. I used to be with Kurzweil on this. But time has jaded me. And history is on the side of muzzle too. Yes, no doubt computers and nuclear reactors and ICBM's and internal combustion engines and satellites and so on have all had tremendous impacts on life on Earth, but it's not the amazing spectacular thing envisioned so many years ago. Seems like people in ~1910 were awaiting everybody owning a flying machine. And people in 1950 might have anticipated everybody living in the clouds with jetpacks and laserguns. You know the story? Or like Asimov writing stories about humans and robots living peacefully (and some times not so peacefully) together. And 2001 space odyssey... All of that was supposed to happen by now, but it's taking time.

It's taking time. And that's the common element. It will take a lot more time. And I think we're missing things too. Not very many people in 1940 saw how rapidly computers would spawn and spread across the world into our public and private lives. Similarly, technologies will spring up and we won't see it coming and it'll change our world equally as much.

100 years ago you could wander downtown and see roads and alleyways and buildings and so on. There were many recognizable things even to people of today. Same thing will happen over the coming 100 years. If one of us were placed into that world, it'd still be recognizable. Sure there would be some big advances apparent on closer inspection, but largely I expect we'd look around and be surprised how unsurprising it looks. In fact, many of the same roads and bridges and trees and hills are all in the same locations. You might still see the same buildings and some--GASP--cars parked nearby. OMG, it's both different and familiar...

One thing I think will happen is we'll get smarter. We'll increasingly change our psychology. This will counter the advances in AI, reducing the likelihood we'll be slaves or worse exterminated. We'll use computers on a deeper intimate level. In fact, we might become nearly indistinguishable from AI. Some of us will live most our lives on virtual networks, and those will crisscross all areas of the globe and nearby spaces of the planet. Augmented reality will probably become the norm, making reality more nebulous than ti's now. We can already see this happening, so none of it's unexpected.

Luckily it's one moment at a time with us. If we had to figure out the next 100 years in only 1, I think it might be over.

a reply to: IgnoranceIsntBlisss

Good catch, people like him are sick, I almost can't believe my own ears!

originally posted by: jonnywhite
Yes, no doubt computers and nuclear reactors and ICBM's and internal combustion engines and satellites and so on have all had tremendous impacts on life on Earth, but it's not the amazing spectacular thing envisioned so many years ago. Seems like people in ~1910 were awaiting everybody owning a flying machine. And people in 1950 might have anticipated everybody living in the clouds with jetpacks and laserguns. You know the story?

All of that is true, however, the things you're talking about are logical, reasonable advancements in things we already do and understand. Jets and cars are simply new ways of getting around instead of using horses. The Internet is just a faster, gussied up version of personal letters and the town notice board (or newspaper, after a while). Even nuclear power is mostly used as a heat source to boil water.

We've never quite seen a machine that can think and act on its own. We're not even sure yet how humans think. Maybe it won't happen as soon as we imagine, and we'll have time to get used to self-driving cars that are pleasant and friendly before they all link together into an incomprehensible god-mind. I'm pretty sure I won't live to see it, but it's something we can ponder for a while before our descendants all laugh at our quaint old-fashioned and inaccurate musings.

a reply to: muzzleflash

Good points however

The human brain is not designed to do ultra calculations in a nano second, it's more complicated than that.

You ever seen The Rain Man? I think we still have hardly any understanding of how the human mind works or what exactly it is capable of.

a reply to: shawmanfromny

"fighting wars"

That's about the jist of the situation through and why we need the singularity to bring logic to our overly aggressive monkey brains.