Will Asteroid 2012 TC4 Hit Earth in October 2017

From Space Daily

The house-sized asteroid was discovered on Oct. 4, 2012 by the Pan-STARRS observatory in Hawaii. Week later, it gave Earth a close shave when it passed the planet at the distance of 0.247 LD (lunar distance), or 94,800 km. 2012 TC4 is an elongated and rapidly rotating object and has been known to make many close approaches to Earth in the past. Now, the scientists try to determine the exact path of 2017 fly-by and the probability of a possible impact. "It has a 0.00055% cumulative chance that it will hit," Gyorgyey-Ries said. "The fact that the MOID [minimum orbit intersection distance] is only 0.079 LD flags it as a possible impactor. However it is just the smallest possible distance between the orbits."

Space Daily

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Look like this could turn out bad for a few people at only 8000 Km

BRB going to check on JPL number and put them in Celestia see what give
Think this one is a pay attention one

Here a thread from last time around
Linky

Ok floor all your

a reply to: Trillium
Well damnit. I sure as hell hope not.

"It has a 0.00055% cumulative chance that it will hit,"

Do you understand what that means?
No. It will not hit Earth. I promise.

No.....

But you are giving food for the hungry readers so desperate to see the end times. Its funny that so many people want the End of the World scenario. apparently these types are so unhappy in their real lives that the thought of the end of the world is refreshing as it brings end to the Rent Paying, Robot working, Cogs in the machine grinding us down way of Life.

Instead of wishing nuclear war or a giant asteroid killing us all go to your GP and ask for some Prozac! as trust me life is way better than death. Try and enjoy it while we still can as there are millions of souls that wished they had made better use of their time here.

Ok here a few more link

preemptivedebunking.blogspot.ca..." target="_blank" class="postlink">Linky

NASA

JPL

Impactor Info

All saying prety much all the same
could be a bad day for a few people

originally posted by: Dinnedwiththedevil
No.....

But you are giving food for the hungry readers so desperate to see the end times. Its funny that so many people want the End of the World scenario. apparently these types are so unhappy in their real lives that the thought of the end of the world is refreshing as it brings end to the Rent Paying, Robot working, Cogs in the machine grinding us down way of Life.

Instead of wishing nuclear war or a giant asteroid killing us all go to your GP and ask for some Prozac! as trust me life is way better than death. Try and enjoy it while we still can as there are millions of souls that wished they had made better use of their time here.

It did say probability of a possible impact. LOL

a reply to: Trillium

just over Five ten-thousandths of a percent of probability? I'd bet against this with my life savings and then some against those odds for a little bit of a return.

Even for a +1% return every 60 days, I would take those odds.

originally posted by: Trillium

"It has a 0.00055% cumulative chance that it will hit,"

Maybe if it had a 55% chance of hitting, hell even 5% chance I might be a bit worried. the chances of it hitting is so minute there's no point even entertaining the idea...

This asteroid is of a similar size with the Chelyabinsk meteor, so even if it hit us it would explode high up (at around ~20 km altitude). The blast wave would shatter windows, set off car alarms, scare the bejeesus out of people, and perhaps do some light structural damage. There may be a large fragment or two actually striking the ground (or water) and that's where serious damage or deaths may occur.

Here's a video of the Chelyabinsk meteor, to refresh your memory:


www.youtube.com...

But as Phage pointed out, it's certain that it won't hit us this time.

At house sized, it's going to have to be made of something very special to do more than create a big bang in the sky somewhere assuming it does overcome those astronomically bad odds and try to hit us.

originally posted by: Phage

"It has a 0.00055% cumulative chance that it will hit,"

Do you understand what that means?
No. It will not hit Earth. I promise.

What he said...............

a reply to: wildespace

It always amazes me how calm Russian people are when stuff like this happens. There are thousands of videos out there of various things like car wrecks and the like (from dash cams) and in nearly every one of them the people barely make a sound when something happens. Same thing here. Sure there's a little reaction, but outside of that they just seem to carry on like it happens every day.

In this country people would instantly scream bloody murder and there would be chaos and pandemonium.

originally posted by: ketsuko
At house sized, it's going to have to be made of something very special to do more than create a big bang in the sky somewhere assuming it does overcome those astronomically bad odds and try to hit us.

Most asteroids are rocky and have weak structure, but let's assume this asteroid is solid iron or iron/nickel, and enters our atmosphere at 17 km/s: Results

The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 14000 meters = 46000 ft

The projectile bursts into a cloud of fragments at an altitude of 5550 meters = 18200 ft

The residual velocity of the projectile fragments after the burst is 6.88 km/s = 4.27 miles/s

The energy of the airburst is 1.71 x 1015 Joules = 0.41 x 100 MegaTons.

Large fragments strike the surface and may create a crater strewn field.

That looks a bit more serious, if the asteroid explodes over a city.

October?
Aw hell. I hope not. I'm going as sexy Donald Trump for Halloween

I think the odds are still in my favor.

a reply to: Trillium

I agree with the others,, with those statistics it wouldn't hit earth.

Personally I'd rather know what in the hell is that THING in member WILDESPACE'S avatar

originally posted by: Phage

"It has a 0.00055% cumulative chance that it will hit,"

Do you understand what that means?
No. It will not hit Earth. I promise.