Will Asteroid 2012 TC4 Hit Earth in October 2017

originally posted by: SaloonSal
Personally I'd rather know what in the hell is that THING in member WILDESPACE'S avatar

It's a motor protein called kinesin. It transports stuff around the cell.


www.youtube.com...

~~~

Hopefully others will forgive me for the off-topic post.

Just saw this come up on
FaceBook

Also on
Twiter

Ya getting closer
JPL

originally posted by: Trillium
Ya getting closer
JPL

But still won't hit us... unless prior calculations have been very wrong. With the "observation arc" of only 7 days in 2012, the actual close approach distance may be closer, but only the new data (when this asteroid is "recovered" in early September) will show by how much, if any.

Yes, the odds of impact are given as 8.81 to the minus 5. If my math is correct, that's a bit under one chance in 50,000.

originally posted by: Phage

"It has a 0.00055% cumulative chance that it will hit,"

Do you understand what that means?
No. It will not hit Earth. I promise.

"Never tell me the odds!" - Han Solo

a reply to: Trillium

Only house-sized? Depending upon its makeup, it probably wouldn't even hit ground.

Or if it does, likely would hit uninhabited land, or water.

Certainly wouldn't be an ELE.

a reply to: SaloonSal

You're hardly the first to wonder.

Now when the meteor hits, and we all die, you won't have not knowing what that was to haunt your afterlife!!

Sweet, huh?

a metor exploding depends on if it is hitting earth from the front or back .
from the front head on collision earth speed 60,000 mph meteor speed 30,000 mph .
BOOM .
from the back its really slow so slow that it is at reentry speeds and less liklly to explode and even a small one can make it to the ground .
So alot depends on entry

a house sized one could blow up or could make a new Arizonian sized creator .
and if a city was under it well

a reply to: Trillium

No.

Just a up-date
From EarthSky

2012 TC4 will pass very close to Earth on October 12, 2017. These experts said that, even though they can’t yet predict exactly how close it’ll come, they’re certain it’ll fly by at a safe distance. That safe distance could be a very close shave, however, with the space rock passing no closer than 4,200 miles (6,800 km) from our planet.

Now is that 6,800 km to the bary center
Or to the surface off Earth ?????????????????????????
Earth surface is about 8,000 km from the bary center
now that negative could be possibly a HIT ???????????????

originally posted by: Trillium
Just a up-date
From EarthSky

2012 TC4 will pass very close to Earth on October 12, 2017. These experts said that, even though they can’t yet predict exactly how close it’ll come, they’re certain it’ll fly by at a safe distance. That safe distance could be a very close shave, however, with the space rock passing no closer than 4,200 miles (6,800 km) from our planet.

Now is that 6,800 km to the bary center
Or to the surface off Earth ?????????????????????????
Earth surface is about 8,000 km from the bary center
now that negative could be possibly a HIT ???????????????

The trajectory calculations are still the same, until the asteroid is "recovered" (becomes visible in telescopes again), so JPL orbit calculations are your best source of information here.

JPL shows the minimum-distance approach at 0.0000880453517512432 au which is about 13,171.4 km from the Earth's centre. Substracting 8,000 gives you 5,171.4 km.

The barycentre of the Earth-Moon system is actually inside our planet, so it is not "8000kms from Earth's surface". As for the close approach distance of the asteroid, the barycentre is only used for trajectory calculations when an object is well outside the Earth-Moon system. When it penetrates deep inside the Moon's orbit, those calculated close approach distances are with respect to the centre of Earth.

July 27/2017 Update
from Wikipedia

The asteroid was recovered with the Very Large Telescope on July 27, 2017 at apparent magnitude 26.8 while the asteroid was 0.4 AU (60,000,000 km; 37,000,000 mi) from Earth.[10] At the time of recovery the asteroid was about 100 million times fainter than what can be seen with the naked eye.[15] As of result of the 2017 recovery observations, it is known that on October 12, 2017 at 5:42 UT, the asteroid will pass 0.00033 AU (49,000 km; 31,000 mi) from Earth.[6] Then at 19:19 UT, the asteroid will pass 0.00185 AU (277,000 km; 172,000 mi) from the Moon.[6] The asteroid will peak at about apparent magnitude 12.8,[11] and will be too faint to be seen without a telescope.

a reply to: Trillium

I did stoped to care about things I have no influence. Hit or wont hit? Does not matter. We are going to live anyway.

I thought the Giant Meteor was supposed to be President in 2012?!

A month out. Now where did I leave my doom porn shorts?...

October 12, 2017 @ 05:47 UTC

So, for me in Anchorage, that is 9:47 PM, Oct. 11, which is a Wednesday. Which works for me seeing as payday is the previous Friday. Will stock up on beer, bullets, and popcorn!

these types are so unhappy in their real lives that the thought of the end of the world is refreshing as it brings end to the Rent Paying, Robot working, Cogs in the machine

Yes, that's how annoying life is under corporatism.

a reply to: CB328

No need to wait for an asteroid.

originally posted by: Phage

"It has a 0.00055% cumulative chance that it will hit,"

Do you understand what that means?
No. It will not hit Earth. I promise.

Do you understand how the prayer works for winning lottery?