Advanced Watch Wednesday : Texas severe weather outbreak

a reply to: Discotech

looks like anywhere from noon (CDT) on Wed thru Thurs AM, according to Intellicast

Those times are For Arkansas storms

Thanks guys

SPC:

...EASTERN OK/TX INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY -- WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON... SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE MORNING...AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALREADY BE ONGOING 12Z/WED ACROSS PARTS OF OK/TX INTO SW MO. WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ATOP RESIDUAL EML...AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SEMI ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS. THIS EARLY ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND PRODUCE SPORADIC SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OZARKS AND LOWER/MID-MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS -- WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING... THE BREADTH OF MORNING ACTIVITY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OK/TX...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...DETERMINISTIC AND SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADEQUATE RECOVERY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM EASTERN OK/TX INTO WESTERN AR/LA IS EXPECTED. THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL SURGE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TO ROUGHLY THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL KS THROUGH CENTRAL OK INTO TX...AND AN UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL EXIST. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST OVER KS AND THE MID-MO VALLEY...WEAKENING WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. HOWEVER...A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND STRONGER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MOIST AXIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE FOR MORE SUBTLE FORCING. DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON IS LIKELY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT AND ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NEB/KS INTO SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO. THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE MIN IN ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHWEST MO...AND THEN REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHEAST TX AND ADJACENT PARTS OF AR/LA. THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ALL HAZARD TYPES BOTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. GIVEN DISPARITY AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REGARDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE EASTWARD POSITION OF THE DRYLINE...IN ADDITION TO ADDED UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MORNING CONVECTION...NO UPGRADES WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

Be on the look out tomorrow is a go will continue to update

a reply to: TechniXcality

First let me link to CAPE and what it means when the term is used WIKI

In meteorology, convective available potential energy (CAPE),[1] sometimes, simply, available potential energy (APE), is the amount of energy a parcel of air would have if lifted a certain distance vertically through the atmosphere. CAPE is effectively the positive buoyancy of an air parcel and is an indicator of atmospheric instability, which makes it very valuable in predicting severe weather. It is a form of fluid instability found in thermally stratified atmospheres in which a colder fluid overlies a warmer one. As explained below, when an air mass is unstable, the element of the air mass that is displaced upwards is accelerated by the pressure differential between the displaced air and the ambient air at the (higher) altitude to which it was displaced. This usually creates vertically developed clouds from convection, due to the rising motion, which can eventually lead to thunderstorms. It could also be created by other phenomena, such as a cold front. Even if the air is cooler on the surface, there is still warmer air in the mid-levels, that can rise into the upper-levels. However, if there is not enough water vapor present, there is no ability for condensation, thus storms, clouds, and rain will not form.

Onto wrf ttu model prediction & forecast of available CAPE tomorrow at 5pm, when storms should be in the Dallas metro



This is showing anywhere from 2000 - 2500j/kg and exceeding of CAPE which is more than enough instability for surface based super cells & tornadoes, the models are now starting to agree that indeed a severe weather outbreak across the southern plains is imminent!



Here is the forecast picture just after peak heating (5pm) Wednesday North central Texas will have widely scattered super cells with intense amount of instability available - all modes of severe weather are possible. If you live in the southern plains please pay attention to your local weather stations or you can check your weather at National Weather Service simply click your state and county/city to view current watches/warnings and forecasts. This is a dangerous set up tomorrow and Ii would not be surprised if somewhere in the southern plains & or north central Texas is effected by multiple Tornadoes, Damaging winds, and very large hail to the size of softballs.

Here is a graphic for my area from NWS concerning tomorrow


As always everyone stay safe, will update

originally posted by: TechniXcality
a reply to: TechniXcality

First let me link to CAPE and what it means when the term is used WIKI

In meteorology, convective available potential energy (CAPE),[1] sometimes, simply, available potential energy (APE), is the amount of energy a parcel of air would have if lifted a certain distance vertically through the atmosphere. CAPE is effectively the positive buoyancy of an air parcel and is an indicator of atmospheric instability, which makes it very valuable in predicting severe weather. It is a form of fluid instability found in thermally stratified atmospheres in which a colder fluid overlies a warmer one. As explained below, when an air mass is unstable, the element of the air mass that is displaced upwards is accelerated by the pressure differential between the displaced air and the ambient air at the (higher) altitude to which it was displaced. This usually creates vertically developed clouds from convection, due to the rising motion, which can eventually lead to thunderstorms. It could also be created by other phenomena, such as a cold front. Even if the air is cooler on the surface, there is still warmer air in the mid-levels, that can rise into the upper-levels. However, if there is not enough water vapor present, there is no ability for condensation, thus storms, clouds, and rain will not form.

Onto wrf ttu model prediction & forecast of available CAPE tomorrow at 5pm, when storms should be in the Dallas metro

This is showing anywhere from 2000 - 2500j/kg and exceeding of CAPE which is more than enough instability for surface based super cells & tornadoes, the models are now starting to agree that indeed a severe weather outbreak across the southern plains is imminent!

Here is the forecast picture just after peak heating (5pm) Wednesday North central Texas will have widely scattered super cells with intense amount of instability available - all modes of severe weather are possible. If you live in the southern plains please pay attention to your local weather stations or you can check your weather at National Weather Service simply click your state and county/city to view current watches/warnings and forecasts. This is a dangerous set up tomorrow and Ii would not be surprised if somewhere in the southern plains & or north central Texas is effected by multiple Tornadoes, Damaging winds, and very large hail to the size of softballs.

Here is a graphic for my area from NWS concerning tomorrow

As always everyone stay safe, will update

Thanks for all the updates! Softball sized hail???

I'm in Ft Worth and we just now are finishing up getting our two cars, travel trailer, roof, skylights, and fence repaired from the hail on St Paddy's day that hit and I think that was only up to golf balls...

Everyone please stay safe! I always get nervous because my wife is an elementary school teacher and the couple times they've had sirens / warnings she's mentioned how scared the little kiddos are...

a reply to: SonOfThor

yes im repairing as well ,however im glad your family was safe.This looks to be a big one and i wish it didn't come so soon after our last round, where many are still repairing. The hail threat is significant with this much CAPE and tennis to softball size hail is possible with these storms, it is appearing like there will be two episodes the afternoon baring more a threat however the morning storms will be nothing to turn a blind eye towards. Stay safe will continue to update

a reply to: TechniXcality

Update, north central Texas included in the enhanced risk by the storm prediction center.


Remember this upgrade is referencing the coverage of storms not the severity, it was under an enhanced risk that the deadly tornadoes occurred in December in the Dallas area further reading can be done HERE

Here is what NWS is saying about today, everyone in the southern plains from TX OK AK lA should be prepared for a severe weather outbreak, those in the north Texas area stayed tuned

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 316 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 .DISCUSSION... AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS SEVERAL KEY INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER COME TOGETHER. THESE INGREDIENTS INCLUDE...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE SCALE LIFT SUPPLIED BY AN APPROACHING 150+ KNOT JET AND SMALLER SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY AN EASTWARD MOVING DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MULTIPLE SCENARIOS WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS AS FOLLOWS: 1- ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WHERE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE THE STRONGEST. THESE STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE BUT WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT. 2 - THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND STRONGER BY LATE MORNING AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. ONCE THE CAP IS GONE...STORMS WILL BECOME MORE ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A MEDLEY OF HAZARDS INCLUDING HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 3 - BY LATE AFTERNOON A DRYLINE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ZONES AND BECOME AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE EXTENT OF MORNING CONVECTION WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW EXTENSIVE STORMS ARE ON THE DRYLINE. WE STILL ANTICIPATE THAT STORMS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE EAST WHEN THE DRYLINE ENTERS THE REGION. STORMS BOTH ON THE DRYLINE AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. 4 - BY LATE EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND WILL EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE. WHEN THIS OCCURS STORMS WILL END STEADILY FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL STILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. AGAIN...WHAT IS DESCRIBED ABOVE IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR TODAY/TONIGHTS EVENTS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHAT COMPLICATES TODAYS FORECAST AND ANY SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR THAT MATTER IS MESO-SCALE PROCESSES THAT ARE DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO ANTICIPATE. SO THE MESSAGE FOR TODAY IS THIS...BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP AT ANY TIME TODAY/TONIGHT. SINCE THE KEY INGREDIENTS (MOISTURE... INSTABILITY...LIFT AND SHEAR) WILL ALL BE PRESENT...ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL HAVE A GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.

a reply to: TechniXcality

Just wanted to update, forcast radar picture at 3pm which shows the cluster of storms that's is and will continue effecting eastern sections of north Texas through mid to late morning into early afternoon, then moving into AK and LA areas, and also new storms forming on the dry line to our west, these storms to our west will form in a particularly unstable environment and all of north Texas should remain vigilant, so even if nothing has effected you or does; in the areas that are effected the impacts will be high. Stay tuned and watch the storm chasers this afternoon linked in OP

Thanks for the update, watching Kelley Williamson at the moment parked up in Sequoyah

Is the bank of weather currently flowing through just the start or has it arrived earlier than expected ?

a reply to: TechniXcality

Thanks for the head's up. And thanks for the picture. Sorry for the damage. Those look like double "pain" windows, at that.

a reply to: Discotech

yes it is just the start

a reply to: TechniXcality

Great I'm seeing yellow lightning storm warnings over Oklahoma City now, Kelley's on his way, hope the weather isn't too rough in the residential areas

Watching for further development in this area would not be surprised to see a watch go up over north central Texas within the next hour, individual storms will move north east with an overall easterly movement. Stay tuned storms are firing

originally posted by: TechniXcality

Watching for further development in this area would not be surprised to see a watch go up over north central Texas within the next hour, individual storms will move north east with an overall easterly movement. Stay tuned storms are firing

Any rough ideas when these clusters now firing may reach the ft worth area? Just checking in case I need to leave work a little early to put the dogs in the house

Appreciate your detailed updates and expertise... I used to want to be a storm chaser long ago and ended up going into contract law, lol.

a reply to: SonOfThor

It's hard to say because of how complicated the set up is today, and assuming further development along the dry line the main activity would effect you between 5pm- 8pm the issue is that, if storms fire anywhere in the area shear and CAPE values are such that they have the potential to rapidly become severe, unfortunately we can only guess until actually watching the evolution - where the thunderstorms will be and the most likely area. As you can see they are firing to the west and becoming severe, indicated by the bright reds on the radar. So i say all that to say this, it would best to get home by 5pm (if you can) however storms could fire anywhere in the area between now and then.

and you are most certainly welcome

a reply to: TechniXcality

NWS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR NORTH TEXAS (which means conditions within this area are favorable for severe thunderstorms, it may be redundant but those annoying sounds should be beeping through everyone's radio right about now, making them aware)

from NWS:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 59 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 210 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS TXC035-049-059-081-083-085-093-097-113-121-133-143-151-181-193- 207-221-237-251-253-333-337-353-363-367-399-417-425-429-439-441- 447-497-503-310200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0059.160330T1910Z-160331T0200Z/ TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE COOKE DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND ERATH FISHER GRAYSON HAMILTON HASKELL HOOD JACK JOHNSON JONES MILLS MONTAGUE NOLAN PALO PINTO PARKER RUNNELS SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL STEPHENS TARRANT TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WISE YOUNG $$ ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

The Weather Channel has Dallas at a Tor:Con 5 today (50% chance tornado). Crap....

originally posted by: TNMockingbird
a reply to: TechniXcality

Thank you handsome Texan!
(you know that's my pet name for you! LOL)
I really appreciate your early warnings as often is the case when Texas sees bad weather we are not far behind.

On occasion, especially in the Spring, the severe weather events travel straight up through Mississippi and Alabama and swing up through Memphis and on...

Sometimes, if a front is pushing hard enough downward from the North it can keep it to our South but then our Southerly neighbors are in for it. The storms are able to build and grow more severe.

I am up on a mountain, of sorts, and storms can easily fizzle out and we say "It couldn't make it up the West side of the mountain" but when they do...make...they are usually doozies. THAT'S a very technical meteorological term!

Hey...Keep your hands off my TechniX!

a reply to: texasgirl

Be safe Texas girl check in to let us know how you are periodically, will continue to update.

2 inch hail !


Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
232 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

TXC429-302000-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-160330T2000Z/
STEPHENS TX-
232 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN STEPHENS COUNTY...

AT 231 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS...
OR NEAR BRECKENRIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...TWO INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED AND SPOTTER REPORTS.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN STEPHENS COUNTY NEAR THE TOWN OF IVAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3294 9874 3295 9858 3270 9866 3270 9889
3279 9898 3288 9895
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 262DEG 19KT 3282 9883

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

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