Why Putin Will Buckle Under Sanctions

This might be the outcome we all hope for (most of us), however when you
have a rat in a barrel , it will try and grab your throat to escape.

Putin has three choices and all end in with **ed

If he stays the course with Crimean Invasion plans he risks ruin.. Sanction will destroy Russia.
If backs down (which I don't believe he will.. He's lost his power and that for a man like Putin
is an affront he cant live with imho. He will also lose his creds in Russia.

The third option is he goes for broke and Invades Ukraine.. He'll lose here too.
The element of surprise is lost as well as the West will have moved their pieces to counter an attack.

So my logical opinion of the crisis is Putin will back down or risk defeat or ruining his economy.

Here is a better assessment as the above of course is just my opinion.

Source

Russia may be talking a big game when it comes to Ukraine, but the Kremlin knows full well it can’t afford prolonged economic warfare. Whatever Vladimir Putin’s talent at bullying, he cannot hide his country’s fundamental weakness. The economy behind this show of force is in no position to withstand even the least strain. It is distorted, fragile, and volatile. Russia needs oil and gas sales to the West more than the West needs Russian oil and gas, and Russia, needs the West for just about everything else. If it comes to an economic confrontation, Russia would not stand a chance. As diplomats try to disarm the situation, hopefully without strong-arm tactics of any kind, they can gain from knowledge of how uneven an economic contest would be. Putin and his predecessor Boris Yeltsin bear a lot of personal responsibility for Russia’s weak position. The Soviets left them a broad and industrialized, if remarkably inefficient, economy. The chaos of Yeltsin’s rule sold off much of this inheritance, and Putin has actively neglected broad development, turning Russia into a petro economy almost wholly dependent for everything it needs on the revenues from oil and gas. Instead of doing the hard work of production and development, his economy simply sells off its natural inheritance and buys its needs from the foreign producers who are willing to work. Incongruous as it might sound,Russia has much in common with those trust-fund babies who never develop themselves but instead subsist, albeit sometimes glamorously, on their inheritance. Summary statistics paint a vivid picture

reply to post by rigel4


There's only one problem.

The sanctions I don't think will effect it's trading relationship with China, which at the moment is Russia's largest economic friend and partner.

So as long as that goes unimpeded, I highly doubt Russia will fold over these.

~Tenth

reply to post by rigel4


In the sanctions scenario, you have to look at who would buckle first - the EU or Russia. Any sanctions on Russia will come with shutting off the gas to the EU and all the chaos that will cause. So who is tougher? My guess is the Russians are. They've suffered more and more recently than the Europeans.

Will sanctions destroy Putin? Oh.. I dunno,... Could Putin sanction Obama into oblivion?

We can't even pass any sanctions that matter because Russia is the 5th vote on the UN Security Council with absolute Veto control. (Any one of the 5 core members can outright stop anything from passing). These sanction attempts are an insult and provocation to escalate further. Obama needs to be talking to Putin like a man, not an entertainer for a world show.

We need a President right now, not a clown with a tired act.

Wiki

China is not their leading trading partner according to the Wiki.
EU is the main exporter from Russian and Importer from the EU.

As Russia is almost purely a petro economy.. if push comes to shove
Russia will fall before the EU does.

After all we can buy our Gas (lpg) from somewhere else..
But Russia might be a bit screwed with no imports from the EU
and financial blacklisting.

This game has just started imho

reply to post by tothetenthpower


True that, Tenth.

Western news organizations could do a little better as well to quit "poking the bear".
The wiry guy who proved himself in a fight on the playground can only be called "weak" and "ineffective" so long before the metal lunchbox comes out.

tothetenthpower
reply to post by rigel4

 

There's only one problem.

The sanctions I don't think will effect it's trading relationship with China, which at the moment is Russia's largest economic friend and partner.

So as long as that goes unimpeded, I highly doubt Russia will fold over these.

~Tenth

Along with China.. dont forget India, Syria, Iran, Belarus, etc. Speaking of China, a Russian Ministry spokesman said that Russian leaders and Leaders in China agreed and China was backing Russia 100% because of "coincidence of position" concerning Ukraine. Interesting Russia circumvented the embargo the EU placed concerning China... and China owes them a solid a few times over. This strengthening between China and Russia has been going on since late 80's/early 90's.

I remember almost the exact same things being said about Iran.

Hmmm

reply to post by rigel4


The EU will be the tie breaker. They will allow Russian to have their desired piece of real estate. The don't want war in their midst, the Ukraine will keep the gas flowing, and the US and NATO will beat their chests in some sort of assumed victory even as Putin walks away with what he wanted.

reply to post by rigel4


That data was pulled from 2009. In the last 3 or 4 years, Russia has increased very much it's relationship with China.

Furthermore, as we can read here, the EU needs the gas more than Russia needs to sell it in some cases.

So we may see push back by EU members.

~Tenth

reply to post by tothetenthpower


Agreed. China is in a much better position geographically and logistically to help Russia than we are in to help the EU.

Wrabbit2000
Will sanctions destroy Putin? Oh.. I dunno,... Could Putin sanction Obama into oblivion?

We can't even pass any sanctions that matter because Russia is the 5th vote on the UN Security Council with absolute Veto control. (Any one of the 5 core members can outright stop anything from passing). These sanction attempts are an insult and provocation to escalate further. Obama needs to be talking to Putin like a man, not an entertainer for a world show.

We need a President right now, not a clown with a tired act.

The same could be said about the US for the past forty years when a certain Middle Eastern country brought up.
I dont think Obama can affect change at this point. He is ruled by his handlers just as the Bush before him. Other forces are at work here. Kerry was a bonesman after all, Obama, not so much.
The hole goes deeper than even you can dig. Unfortunately.

reply to post by rigel4


I haven't seen anyone mention this either!

Foreign central banks’ Treasury bond holdings parked at the Federal Reserve dropped by the most on record in the latest week. Some analysts think the crisis in Ukraine is sparking the move.

Their theory: Russia is shifting its Treasury bond holdings out of the Fed and into offshore accounts. That way, Russia would be able to buy or sell its portfolio if the U.S. and its European allies impose economic sanctions amid growing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine.

Treasury securities held in custody for foreign official and international accounts tumbled by $105 billion in the week that ended Wednesday, according to weekly data released late Thursday. That shrank Treasury bond holdings by foreign central banks to a 15-month low of $2.855 trillion, though still near a record high of $3.02 trillion set in December.

Did Russia Just Move Its Treasury Holdings Offshore?

Things are getting interesting. Who blinks first? Russia or the Bankers...errr I mean the US.

Wrabbit2000
Will sanctions destroy Putin? Oh.. I dunno,... Could Putin sanction Obama into oblivion?

We can't even pass any sanctions that matter because Russia is the 5th vote on the UN Security Council with absolute Veto control. (Any one of the 5 core members can outright stop anything from passing). These sanction attempts are an insult and provocation to escalate further. Obama needs to be talking to Putin like a man, not an entertainer for a world show.

We need a President right now, not a clown with a tired act.

While i do agree with your sentiment on Putin.. I don't agree with the sanctions
analysis.. as the United states doesn't really do a huge trade with Russia.. they have little in the way
(at least open sanctions) to lever with.

The Eu on the other hand has no need of a security council resolution and will bring in their
own sanctions with out any need of the United Nations.

Of course nothing in this weird world is clear cut so really just about anything could happen at this point.

Agreed on Obama's circus act... it is getting tiring.

China will have Russian backs when it comes to money they will do a deal for some American dollar debt they do not need the west as much as we like to think they do how will we get men to the iss .

Russia have food/ water/oil in quantity make cars etc what else do they really need from us they cannot get from south america or one of the satellite states

999zxcv
China will have Russian backs when it comes to money they will do a deal for some American dollar debt they do not need the west as much as we like to think they do how will we get men to the iss .

Russia have food/ water/oil in quantity make cars etc what else do they really need from us they cannot get from south america or one of the satellite states

Off the top my head the expertise and replacement parts for their
petro chemical industry.

I would have to research just what they actually do need..

reply to post by rigel4


The thing with Russia is that people seem to lose sight of the fact Russia is the largest nation on our planet...by a good margin. They have natural resources across that land that make ours look distressed, at best. They've always had issues with developing it, since the exploitation that built Western systems just didn't fly well under Communism. However, Russia could, if they really wanted to play for keeps, flood the gold, silver, wheat, gas and other markets to the point of crashing them...on a whim and just because the mood struck them that way.

I mean, there wouldn't be a huge loss:gain ratio to be considered, as Russia imports what Russia CHOOSES to import. They don't "need" to import anything they actually need. Neither does the United States. In this way, we're Super Powers and Russia always has been in some ways. They lost most ways that mattered for nearly 20 years....but they're back and while our whole house of cards is mounted on a debt bubble that's as infuriating as it is obscene? Russia can almost pay it's own debt with what it holds in hard currency reserves.

This difference in economic positions is so totally polar opposite, our side seems to just prefer to pretend it's not even a factor or doesn't exist. With economic pressure/warfare, we're basically saying 'Putin is slow and his momma dresses him funny', while we're standing buck naked wearing a goofy grin. It's total absurdity to be treating Russia like some 2nd or third 3rd world wanna-be when they absolutely have the capability to clean our clocks like professionals....just as we have the capability to do it in return.

reply to post by rigel4


Most of all that stuff is produced in China and other Asian countries.

Russia would have no problem getting anything. The only thing is the inconvenience of having to trade in other currencies, like the YUAN or even in Gold like Iran did.

It certainly pressures Russia, economic problems of any kind aren't good for international trade, but the US really has no way of harming Russia in any long term fashion.

Outside of convincing other countries to do the same, which they won't because they rely on Russia's oil and gas industry, I can't see it panning out well for the US.

~Tenth

reply to post by seeker1963


If offshore move is Russian money then it pretty much seals Crimea's fate.

They have moved the money .. so logically they have decided to at least annexe Crimea.

reply to post by rigel4



Europe imports one-third of its natural gas from Russia, with Germany being the biggest client

rt.com...