Russia declares war on Ukraine. Live updates from inside Ukraine

Ok this is where I am getting confused.

Every place he the right for self-determination that is an almost intrinsic human right. But this mad rush into it has to be done today seems almost haphazard surely there should be open and honest debate by all parties, all all voices. Tv stations and news should be given free voice and this above all else has to be part and parcel of an open and honest referendum; I am Scottish and we are going through this at the moment (it could be said that our media is not been open and honest but that is another days argument).

Here is the crux, from what I have seen and read recently even before events increasingly escalated in Ukarine (I work in the geological sciences specialising in oil and gas) it looks like there may be a lot (and I mean a lot) of gas in Ukraine's territory. This if exploited will mean a sea change in the gas market in europe and should decrease the price in MMbtu from current levels.

Now this will hurt a lot of companies but one more than any other and that of course is Gazprom. Note that I say Gazprom not Russia plc.

All of a sudden there is Russian troops sorry of course I mean Crimean self-defence militia with access to top of the range Russian weaponry and vehicles in Ukraine.

What's next all the region's and territorial waters that have shown a good chance of having significant reserves of gas becoming region's of The greater Russian empire.

Me I just want cheap gas for me the consumer and for nobody to have to go to war over it. Yes America has done this with oil in the past, but two wrongs do not and can never make a right.

This is the first I've seen of this kind of talk -

Samantha Power says Crimea referendum risks escalation:

The US ambassador to the United Nations says a referendum on whether Crimea should remain part of Ukraine or join Russia would be illegal and "highly destabilising, and would further polarise the situation and gravely enhance the risk of escalation."

Samantha Power said the United States still believes there's a diplomatic way out of the crisis in Ukraine "but every day, particularly with moves like that made today in Crimea, the risk of military escalation increases."

Power urged Russia to allow monitors from the UN and Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe "to gather the facts on the ground so that they cannot continue to be twisted as we have seen." [AP]

Aljazeera

reply to post by trinityschild

People forget that American companies have a share in Russian oil production, so this being souly about oil is a misnomer. During the post perestroika rebuilding of Russia, many western companies invested in the broken down oil infrastructure, negotiating with KGB leaders who had "aquired" assets from the state. That is why the government took back much of their interests in the industry, and jailed Mikhail Khodorkovsky over Yukos oil. Chevron and Shell want to develop the shale gas deposits in Ukraine to replace the Gazprom's feed to Europe, but they are years away from being able to do that. If the flow of oil were to be be cut off from Russia, Germany and Poland would suffer greatly from the void. Exxon (Texaco) is risking losing the second largest field rights if sanctions are imposed against Russia, so these moves do not necessarily reflect the best interest of the oil industry.

There is no questions that through the IMF funding of Ukraine, the Gasprom rights and infrastructure will be auctioned off on the cheap to some greedy bastards, but to assume that the reason Russia is fighting Ukraine's change of government is wholly for the protection of oil sales is overly simplifying the situation.
gcaptain.com...

AX
FTNWO

GarrusVasNormandy


But I must say, I'm rather surprised to see this type of thinking and strategy.

It's fascinating watching these types of bold moves, but it's also freaking scary when you notice a country is taking this seriously enough to afford sinking ships on purpose to make a blockade.

I agree with you on your last. That is what caught my eye. Not the choice of this tactic which is textbook, but use of the this tactic. From the imagery provided they used a port side capsize, with the superstructure facing inland in 9 meters of water. Very hard to clear a ship in this position. Regardless of whether or not I support the Russians in this matter, this type of manoeuvre makes denying involvement in the situation difficult to say the least, as the vessel is registered to them.

AX
FTNWO

Latest VICE News dispatch from Crimea..



This crew of reporters are a breath of fresh air... clearing some of the fog we have to deal with via normal reports, I hope they remain safe in an unstable area..

reply to post by JacKatMtn


I really feel sorry for those ukrainians on their ship if war breaks out there only option is to fight there way out of the harbor and they know they won't make it.But again apparently the Russians have given Crimea there navy as well wonder where they found sailors capable of manning the ships must be an awesome training program.

reply to post by JacKatMtn


Vice is very reputable as a source in my opinion.

They have been everywhere and they are not afraid to report the facts as clearly shown in this video.

Thank you for posting.

reply to post by AlphaExray

You are right of course, and thank for the link and reasoned argument (after all the trolling that has been done over the course of this thread it is actually kind nice to have a intelligent discussion which can make someone rethink their point of view so as a fellow human being thank you).

However on the whole my point I guess is that Gazprom is majority controlled by 3 or 4 Russian people who have never been elected to power and are controlling I believe the foreign policy of the Russian goverement. This happens in America, it happens in the UK heck there are few countries in the world it does not happen. The price of natural gas should drop when this new supply is introduced and if Gazprom have the majority share I don't think it will. From the numbers I have seen Ukrainians should find they have a very wealthy country and Europe should have a far cheaper gas supply.

I believe that the Crimea should be given a vote for its future. It should happen after the Ukraine's general election (incase this effects the vote). It should have 3 options, home rule, Ukrainian rule (or the current autonomous state status-quo), or become part of the Russian federation.

This vote should be monitored by the Ukraine, Russia and another netural third party.

Until then the Russian troops should be pulled back to their bases and a neutral UN peacekeeping force should be introduced (the US, uk, eu or Russia should have NO PART IN THIS).

I grew in the cold war, I saw films like Threads, the day after, Miracle mile and the Russian one I cannot remember the name off, I flinched every time jets flew too low or this was a sudden news flash on tv.

I have a 2 year old son and a wife I love. I want to grow old and watch my son grow up and my wife take up knitting.

Right now I am scared about the future, I don't want to worry about these things again

reply to post by trinityschild


Russians are not going to leave Crimea its gone the only way is if the ukrainian military were to move in and hope the Russians just dont think its worth the bad press to destroy them. Which i find a highly unlikely scenario not to mention extremely dangerous because than Russia will spin it like they were attacked by US and Ukrainian forces. Because as we all know no matter what problem Russia has its always the United States fault.And dont worry right now the only way i see this going to war would be if the Russians entered Kiev this would require Nato to do something. And i dont think Putin is willing to push it that far.

Sevastopol will also hold a referendum on March 16th to join the Russian Federation. I recall a few days ago other eastern Ukraine cities being "taken" by the pro-Russia mobs, this list may grow over the following days.

Sebastopol City Council after the puppet Parliament Crimea decided to hold a referendum on March 16 to include the question of entering Sevastopol to Russia.
This decision 49 deputies voted unanimously reported by Ukrainian news.
The referendum will be offered to residents of Sevastopol three questions:
- You Crimea for reunification with Russia on the rights of the subject?
- You are the restoration of the Constitution of the Republic of Crimea in 1992 and the status of Crimea as part of Ukraine?
- City Sevastopol to join the Russian Federation as a subject of the Russian Federation?

www.pravda.com.ua...

reply to post by JacKatMtn


I am pretty sure that Ukrainian ship will blast the hell out of anything in that harbor before it goes down. That Captain is good for keeping his ship alert and protected. God Bless the Ukrainian navy for staying calm, cool and protective. They will fight if someone shoots at them. Putin and his Russian shock troops can go to hell, those people at the Ukrainian base were sent there to not protect anything but to stir up trouble and ACT like they are from Crimea. I hope Obama and NATO get the nads and push these punks out of Ukraine and back to mother Russia where they belong.

trinityschild
reply to post by AlphaExray

 

Y
I believe that the Crimea should be given a vote for its future.

You are a fool for thinking that it will be a real legit vote since so many Russian provocateurs have been sent in over the years to prevent the area from ever moving to the EU or NATO. Putin should be banned from everything since all he does is lie and is war criminal for putting Russian troops on Ukrainian soil in unmarked uniforms.

Vice seems like the only source of investigative journalism these days... this makes me happy and sad at the same time

reply to post by trinityschild


I agree with you, and I too remember the darkness of the cold war. I'm a Canadian, and became the apprentice of my Grandfather ( the inventor of advanced composites) at an early age, where I was groomed to design weaponry for the US military. It broke his heart that I did not go on to make war machines, but I did not want to contribute to the mess. Instead I spend a good deal of my life in shipping and trade circles, crossing paths with so many nasty folks (Russian Japanese and Italian Mafia), that eventually I stepped back, and became a truck driver. I drove a million miles of US asphalt, and learnt the beauty of the average American Joe. I feel a loyalty to our big brother USA, but I know that the corruption in all governments is astounding, so I am jaded, and rarely believe that any of the big events today are not in some way financially motivated. The problem with this mess, is that it has the potential to become very nasty very fast.

I fell for a girl in Kherson, just north of the Crimea a few year ago, she was a proud Ukrainian woman, with strong ties to Russia, and she helped me to understand the complexity of the Eastern Ukrainian Identity, and softened my stance on Russia. She started to get death threats when I spoke up against the events unfolding in Fukushima, so I had to distance myself from her, and now this is happening. It makes you feel powerless to watch, knowing the Rhetoric and power plays have little to do with the people of that country. There is a war brewing, I can feel it, and wars have a mind of their own.

AX
FTNWO

JacKatMtn
Latest VICE News dispatch from Crimea..

This crew of reporters are a breath of fresh air... clearing some of the fog we have to deal with via normal reports, I hope they remain safe in an unstable area..

Now that is what I call Journalism as opposed to the routine corporate Newstainment we've come to know so well from all the 3 letter news channels.

Thanks for the addition. I'll tell you, if I could find a viable path to the work, I'd be very happy doing just what they do over there in making their news vids. Quality stuff!

Wrabbit2000

JacKatMtn
Latest VICE News dispatch from Crimea..

This crew of reporters are a breath of fresh air... clearing some of the fog we have to deal with via normal reports, I hope they remain safe in an unstable area..

Now that is what I call Journalism as opposed to the routine corporate Newstainment we've come to know so well from all the 3 letter news channels.

Thanks for the addition. I'll tell you, if I could find a viable path to the work, I'd be very happy doing just what they do over there in making their news vids. Quality stuff!

Here you go they are now being shown on HBO since you seem interested.What makes it interesting is there reporters are fearless they will go anywhere.

www.hbo.com...#/

There last episode they went to north korea it was interesting . The new seasons about to start and what we are being shown is only glimpses of what they show so im sure they're going to have an episode on Ukraine.

reply to post by trinityschild


Letting the people of Crimea vote would result in staying with Ukraine. The Russians are a minority. 40% of the population do not speak Russian. But letting them vote in the first place is like letting Texas vote to become a part of Mexico. Ukraine isn't going to be cool with letting that economic real estate go, just like we wouldn't want Texas oil and women going to Mexico.

Let's build a pipe from North Dakota to Europe and sell them gas for 50% less than they are paying now so we could stop blinding commercial airline pilots at night with all of the gas we are flaring and get rich doing it.

reply to post by dragonridr


They put good stuff together. I'd first come across the name in a college geography course last year during the crisis. The instructor gave some focus to the North Korean events at the time. They gave a very simple and plain look at things, as I'd come away thinking.

The problem I see with the situation, are not the Russian or Ukrainian soldiers, since they all seem totally professional and the ones at the bases seem, from the vice reports, to get along pretty well since they are just doing their job and it is nothing personal.

BUT! the local people there are just real a**holes, sorry, but they got along years and years and now they are blocking a poor woman, cutting electricity and water even for their own forces in the base (from another report) and just provocating everybody.
I have no idea if they do that, because they want to do it freely or if they are paid by either side to somehow escalate the conflict

Res Ipsa
reply to post by trinityschild

 

Letting the people of Crimea vote would result in staying with Ukraine. The Russians are a minority. 40% of the population do not speak Russian. But letting them vote in the first place is like letting Texas vote to become a part of Mexico. Ukraine isn't going to be cool with letting that economic real estate go, just like we wouldn't want Texas oil and women going to Mexico.

Let's build a pipe from North Dakota to Europe and sell them gas for 50% less than they are paying now so we could stop blinding commercial airline pilots at night with all of the gas we are flaring and get rich doing it.

I have no idea where you have this numbers from. Actually 60% are ethnically Russians there and only 24% are Ukrainian.
So I would conclude, that the Russians are the majority and not the minority.

77% of Crimean inhabitants named Russian as their native language; 11.4% – Crimean Tatar; and 10.1% – Ukrainian.
According to official Ukranian cencsus data.
Proof is here just select all languages in the right column and click continue