Mt. Etna 2014

Lava flow hazards at Mount Etna: constraints imposed by eruptive history and numerical simulations

Depending on their intensity and position, volcanic eruptions at Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy, Fig. 1) have the potential to cause significant social and economic damage.

Etna is characterized by persistent activity from summit craters, consisting of degassing and explosive phenomena associated with fast-moving lava flows1, 2, and recurrent effusive eruptions from vents located on the flanks of the volcano, producing lava flows that can extend for several kilometers.

In future eruptions, one can expect to see one or the other of these eruptive types. The geological record suggests that summit eruptions are somewhat more probable than flank. However, both summit and flank eruptions are likely to produce lava flows, and these are the greatest hazard posed by Mt. Etna to inhabited areas.

Over the last 400 years, the most destructive eruption occurred in 1669 when ~1 km3 of lava was erupted in about four months, producing a 17.3 km long tube-fed lava flow field that destroyed several villages and part of the city of Catania5.

In the last century, the town of Mascali was almost completely destroyed by lava flows in 1928, and the towns of Fornazzo, (S’Alfio is a bit north east of Fornazzo), Randazzo, and Zafferana Etnea were threatened in 1979, 1981, and 1992, respectively.

Recently, tourist facilities in the summit area have been extensively devastated by the 2001 and 2002–2003 lava flow-forming eruptions9, with serious damage to the local economy.

Sant'Alfio local map


Figure 1: Volcano-tectonic map of Etna, showing the spatial distribution of main faults and eruptive fissures produced by flank eruptions in the last 2 ka.




Figure 3: Hazard map by lava flow inundation at Mt. Etna, based on 28,908 simulations of lava flow paths starting from 4,818 different potential vents.




Figure 5: Hazard map for lava flow inundation at Etna's summit area.


NOTE: Per T&C I’ve not reproduced the article in full (even though I have permission). So PLEASE go to the link and read on! There's such a goldmine of incredible information a great deal of which I couldn't explain if I tried! (The math is daunting!) Visit the link, learn and enjoy!

peace

edit on 5-1-2014 by silo13 because: pic fix

Ohhhhhh what IS she thinking this morning?

Eye on the graphs...

peace

reply to post by silo13


Stay safe - a lot of us are watching your info -

Thanks so much for your invaluable info.

God bless all of you there.

reply to post by silo13


Uuugh...what a "morning after the night before face" Etna has in your last picture!
Like streaky mascara down her cheeks!
Rainbows
Jane

reply to post by angelchemuel


I laughed so hard when I read your post! I was thinking along the same lines after taking the capture. I asked myself ‘I wonder what a Vulcanessa takes for a hangover’!

She’s much calmer now - very little output - 'feels' quiet...


First false alarm of the year!

peace

reply to post by silo13


Is that the crater that you mentioned in your other thread? I think Westcoast had asked about it and you said that you've only seen steam coming from it in the past?

Glad it's quieted back down now.

reply to post by silo13

Maybe she has a Lava Mary. I laughed when you wrote your post
as I looked at the photo I can see Vulcanessa's face right there
on the side, like the man in the moon...LOL!

Cheers
Ektar

reply to post by Ektar


I was happy to read your post.
Staring at Silo's photo, I was thinking I must be the only kooky person to see "Vulcanessa's" face in the side of the mountain.

reply to post by Olivine


Spot on Olivine! I'm glad I'm not the only one. Pretty funny since
she has a name & she showed up for the party,

Cheers
Ektar

Wooooowwww! That is truly spooky!
Rainbows
Jane

WOW, JUST WOW!!!!!!

I sat and looked at the picture and thought "Am I seeing what I'm seeing?" I even adjusted my screen.

I'm so glad everyone else saw it too.

And she has a name

That. Is. Freaky.

Natural as can be - but still - I guess seeing things in burnt toast or a trunk of a tree is one thing but on a VOLCANO! LOL!

She's changed again of course so maybe we did get the only Lava Mary EVA!

After putting on that face she's quiet and not even a puff a steam.

Peace

You know this is when I really feel like I’m failing. My camera can’t catch the colors and my words lack the description and eloquence to describe what I’m seeing.

Etna’s ‘large old crater’ (on the right of the pictures) continues to ‘put out’ this very strange almost ‘pink’ colored ash. Ashes of roses I’d have to say (but that description I stole that from the Thornbirds).

The ‘new’ crater on the north-east and to the south side? Billowing white steam.
The contrast is breathtaking and unsettling at once.

I wonder if the ‘old’ crater is clearing her throat for a ‘real’ eruption including lave which has not been seen for ages? Whatever is happening she’s definitely working on something.

But what?

I’ll try a pic later - if the sun is right and etc etc etc.

peace

reply to post by silo13

It sounds like some really interesting new things are occurring lately on your mountain. Thanks for the update, and as always, thanks for the threads. We at ATS have adopted Etna through you.

Ok Folks - need some input here - I'm at a loss.

Before you even start looking at the pics? This is not 'camera anomaly’ - I made sure and check first.

Fanfare over? Here goes:

I went out to try and get the ‘color‘ I was referring to earlier.

Well, I didn‘t. This isn‘t even close - even with the sunset or despite it, whatever.

But I did see something...else.


I have NO idea what this is. I’ve checked this in all my pics from Dec. and on - nothing like this in any pics.

What might it be? Any ideas?



*Going back to look over more pics*

I'm wondering if this might be the teeny-weeny start of a new crater or the waking of the old?

Alien beings? LOL? Ok, no I don't think that - but it IS something!

peace

reply to post by silo13

I tried zooming in and still couldn't make it out. Do you have a telescope handy? That should resolve the object. Nice eye! But you probably know the mountain so well that even with the recent changes you can spot something a little out of place. Thanks for the mystery!

pic linkreply to post by silo13


Was looking for that steam, didn't find it but is this that color ash ?
volcano discovery web site Etna

But then again maybe it does show in that pic ? Wind moving up and over the edge would draw steam, ash or smoke towards it, like the back of a truck ?

reply to post by donlashway

Great job! That's as close as anything I've seen yet - but - not in the pic you posted - I'm referring to the other on at the link.

I'm having a momentary problem with my computer - I'll repost the pic in a bit if I can grab it.

THANK YOU!

reply to post by Aleister

I've been trying to get some info from a couple of other people on the net who are religious Etna followers.
What I've heard back is they've seen it too - they don't know what it is - thinking maybe a 'wake up' and they're looking to compare pics too - sooooooooo I hope to have more info later!

Good to see you,

peace

reply to post by silo13


This web cam shows a angle that looks like a much higher cone on the right edge of the main cone.
web cam


This one shows ash deposit that looks to have come from just that side.