Bush's Florida Vote Count is Statistically Improbable

George W. Bush�s vote tallies, especially in the key state of Florida, are so statistically stunning that they border on the unbelievable.

While it�s extraordinary for a candidate to get a vote total that exceeds his party�s registration in any voting jurisdiction � because of non-voters � Bush racked up more votes than registered Republicans in 47 out of 67 counties in Florida. In 15 of those counties, his vote total more than doubled the number of registered Republicans and in four counties, Bush more than tripled the number.

Statewide, Bush earned about 20,000 more votes than registered Republicans.

By comparison, in 2000, Bush�s Florida total represented about 85 percent of the total number of registered Republicans, about 2.9 million votes compared with 3.4 million registered Republicans.

Bush achieved these totals although exit polls showed him winning only about 14 percent of the Democratic vote statewide � statistically the same as in 2000 when he won 13 percent of the Democratic vote � and losing Florida�s independent voters to Kerry by a 57 percent to 41 percent margin. In 2000, Gore won the independent vote by a much narrower margin of 47 to 46 percent.

For details
2000 florida turnout

2004 florida turnout

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[edit on 9-11-2004 by TrueLies]

Most people I know are not registered by either party.

They are Independents. That is the piece you are missing. I believe independents broke for Bush in 2000 and 2004. gather that data and the mystery may not be that mysterious at all.

Oh yeah, I live in Florida.

Originally posted by TrueLies
and losing Florida�s independent voters to Kerry by a 57 percent to 41 percent margin.

Did that many Democrats really reach across party lines to swell Bush's votes?

I have a lot of friends in Florida that are registered as Democrats or Independants that did not vote for Bush in 2000 but voted for him '04. In some cases the reason for voting Bush '04 was because of his swift aid after the hurricanes that hit this season. In other cases it was because they just didn't like Kerry. Regardless, they are not registered Republicans but voted Bush.

Considering my husbands machine kept changing his vote from Bush to Kerry I have a tendency to believe that if the election was rigged it was rigged in favor of Kerry. However, I think it was probably a bug in the machine and not a conspiracy.

Jemison

Ah, that's right. I forgot about the aid packages.

It's quite possible that a bunch of democrats did vote republican this year. For whatever reason....

My .02, I have been a registered Republican and have voted Democratic the last 4 elections. It might not be that unrealistic.

You forgot, Bush is God. Duh!

Originally posted by Jemison
I have a lot of friends in Florida that are registered as Democrats or Independants that did not vote for Bush in 2000 but voted for him '04.

I'll call your bluff. Give us the first names and occupations of 20 of them.

Or do you use the counting system that goes 1, 2, a lot...?

If you really believe that an election was rigged in favor of one or other candidate because of "your husband's experience" then you are one who rates hearsay and conjecture over rigorous analysis. Happens a lot round here, but at least there are people who will do the necessary analysis anway in the form of the Research Project. Maybe you will take more interest in the results of that?

Whats more interesting is the 5% increase in Bush votes in voting machines without a paper trail. Should be interesting to see what shows up. I have a feeling we will see errors in favor of both candidates if a detailed audit is done. Too bad there is no audit on machines without a paper trail, so convenient.

Deny ignorance boys.

The same counties voted against Clinton and Gore in 1996 and 2000.


See here


So much for that conspiracy theory,...keep 'em comin' !

Don't forget absentee and the military votes.

All you have to do is look at the counties of Okaloosa and Santa Rosa on the Emerald Coast of Florida. It contains Eglin AFB, Hurlburt Field and Pensacola NAS. Here are the numbers. In Okaloosa Bush won 78% of the vote. In Santa Rosa he won 77%. Both with 100% of the precincts reporting. Heck you cant find more Active Duty personel and Retired Officers and Enlisted men and women in the country. I mean good grief, Eglin is bigger than Rhode Island. If those numbers don't tell you how the military feels about Kerry then I don't know what does.

I wonder how many absentee ballots from Florida come in for Bush vs. Kerry.

JB/ Veteran U.S.A.F.

Originally posted by gurnio
Deny ignorance boys.

The same counties voted against Clinton and Gore in 1996 and 2000.

What same counties? There is no specific treatment of these counties on this thread before your comment.

The article that you point to simply shows three (that's right, three) Florida counties won by Bush in 2004 were won by Bush in 2000 and Dole in 1996- nothing to do with the topic whatsoever. There is not even a tabulation against the voting technologies that applied last week. It proves nothing about fraud or absence of fraud at all.

This is one of the more pathetic attempts at disinformation about the election fraud problem so far at ATS.

[edit on 10-11-2004 by MaskedAvatar]

Originally posted by TrueLies
While it�s extraordinary for a candidate to get a vote total that exceeds his party�s registration in any voting jurisdiction � because of non-voters � Bush racked up more votes than registered Republicans in 47 out of 67 counties in Florida. In 15 of those counties, his vote total more than doubled the number of registered Republicans and in four counties, Bush more than tripled the number.

Why is this extraordinary?
I am not a registere emember of any party as far as I know. I don't even know how one goes about becoming registered. No, wait, it has to do with the state's primary. Where lots of people don't bother to vote.

So, I do not find it hard to believe that LOTS of voters who did not claim a party affiliation voted last Tuesday.