Felt the need to chime in here, though I haven't read all the post yet (bad Raud, go back to your den!)...
the more threats that NK makes, the risk for war diminish. I mean, NK and SK/USA has been playing this dangerous game very long now, long enough for
NK to know what they have waiting for them: endless and certain destruction.
they where to attack SK or any other of their numerous foes, they would go for a surprise attack for sure.
This is why: first, they wouldn't stand a chance to begin with, and second, they have even less chances of survivinga a retalliation from the
mightiest military force in the world once they too
are on high alert.
Still, Kim is a mad kid, and you never know, maybe he is brainwashed enough to go for it, who knows, right?
I find this very unlikely however. Even though he is a total autocrat, he's got a bunch of generals around him that might just hint him that it is
more or less impossible to win in open battle... Remember that Kim did get some education abroad (just imagine having him as a desk mate!).
So, this rattling of steel is probably just that, a mighty (stupid) rattle. He'll drive this thing to the edge, freeze it there for a while and
sooner or later roll it back up.
The real risk is that someone on the other side can't take the preassure and fires across the border. This is what NK really wants: a "legitimate"
reason to respond. We just can't give 'em that. Pray for it not to happen...
China is the actor in real peril here;
they need the status quo real bad. NK is their little buffer zone to not having the US on their doorstep. If NK was to be invaded by a coalition
force, or otherwise, there will be millions of armed NK soldiers and refugees flooding the Chinese bordes and setting up camps from where to launch
they would have the US on their doorstep for sure, with the drones and everything!
I assure you that neither the US nor China wants that to happen...
I also have this wild theory of NK wanting
to lose a war with SK so that they can be taken over, all the top dogs fleeing to Cuba or whatever
and leaving the misery for SK and the international community to clean up. It is a bit like The Mouse That Roared
with Peter Sellers
My other idea, which is maybe more far fetched, is that China wants to know more about US preparedness and how much they can muster in the specific
area so they provoke them via proxy. But I know little about how much influence China has over NK politics...
Anywhooo, I think we all should stay frosty on this one. No one benefits from fear more than NK in this case and, like I said, we shouldn't give them
Either it will be a Pearl Harbour sort of attack or it will be nothing.
This Kim kid is probably just making a statement here that he is just as dangerous and unpredictable as his priors (and a just as incompetent state
leader as those before him). What I really mourn here is the NK population and their seemingly never-ending distress.
That's my cents right there.