North Korea - Kaesong industrial zone closed!

I keep an eye on the BBC , and they said yesterday that " many believe that the real warning will be any sign of change at this facility" ( Kaesong ) 2.19. NK make 1.78 billion dollars annually from kaesong..



Now it has happened and they are down playing the situation same reporter/ analyst..



"These actions ( yonhap reactor ) seem to fall short of causing conflict" "Minor incidents/ provocations" from 1.51

So the MSM seem to be on the side of peace, or they dont want panic, IMO this just keeps getting more and more surreal, i told my brother who is in South Korea my concerns about the rhetoric and the potential ( however unlikely ) chance of conflict, I said leave immediately if Kaesong closes ( thinking NK want to sabre rattle, not loose a precious chunk of their economy as this is why they are ratlling to get some resources), what now ?

I told my wife today nuclear war could happen at any moment with nk and sk its scary but looks like it really may happen this time. I hope china just protects there border or helps round up all the nukes asap with UN help.

reply to post by larapa


The fact that NK actually closed Kasong is what concerns me the most at this point. rhetoric is one thing, but to cut your own nose off to spite your face? it speaks to somthing potentially more serious. time will tell.

reply to post by SimonXGrim


I think you are right but i hope you are wrong, this could be the final straw , if no deal is made soon... I see a point of no return looming, however maybe the US see this to and will come to the table with something . Surely no one wants war, IMO its a loose, loose situation for all parties ( at present ). Maybe Obama is willing to bite the bullet as the true end game is war but with a potentially better equipped/preppared NK...

Please excuse my ignorance, but what is the significance of Kasong?

And why would blocking workers be tantamount to war?

Help me understand...

This is very worrying, it has happened before, but not in hostile times like these. I'd be watching very closely for military movements now, as soon as they move, im pretty certain sh!t will happen.

reply to post by Invariance


Nk foreign policy or sabre rattling follows a pattern they need oil/food/etc so they sink a ship, test a nuke, threaten war etc and wait until a peacefull ( favourable ) resolution is agreed where they get what they need/want.

The western media has become quite scathing of this approach as they announce war but do not close the factories in kaesong ( joint SK-NK enterprise where cheap labour is provided by NK workers and expertrise and business acumen by SK workers ) because it is making them 1.7 billion dollars of much needed revenue and provides the resources they seek... furthermore kaesong is the last known means of communication ( telephone line) between the two, so how can you cut off communications but still have this ... conclusion same pattern they have previously followed unnanimous sigh of relief.. they dont want war..

Now its closed so they are currently loosing what they were sabre rattling for ( there threats have failed ) .

Imagine i lead a gang and want to extort you and your business for money, first i threaten that i will buy a gun if you dont give me money - no response from you , then i buy a gun - no response from you, then i wave the gun in your face and threaten to kill you still - no response from you, so i close our joint business that is one of my gangs primary sources of income -even now no response from you.

What do you think my gangs reaction will be: "we had more before we started!" , "the old leader always got the job done" , "we have had a long running feud with you and want war", "we dont have any more cards to play you wasted our best hand "sweating and shaking i shoot you with my gun...

reply to post by larapa


Thank you for the explanation, I can see how serious this move is!

Personally I think NK's young leader is a mad man, many of the globe's rulers are... I don't think consequences seem real to them.

It is my opinion that we should have a real Thunderdome like on the Mad Max movie, then the leaders can step in and settle their differences without murdering thousands (or millions) of innocent people in the process.

reply to post by Invariance


Because those workers and manufacturing plants make SK billions of dollars for there economy.....

CNN is saying there's nothing to panic about... this 'expert' is saying they don't have all that many nukes, but then he goes on to say that we don't know what they have... how confusing!

reply to post by Invariance


There's nothing for us in the US to panic about... But, there are of course the far-reaching political and economic impacts of a war in that region. Not to mention, the threat of terror-style attacks. To be honest, I'd by more threatened by the possibility of a nuke inside a shipping container into a dock, than if they had 100 ICBMs with nuclear warheads. Those we could intercept. The smuggled bomb though? Not so much.

Of course, a little geography lesson, combined with simple math and the best intel analysis of their capabilities, will tell you that the chances of them having an actual nuke that can reach even Alaska or Hawaii, is about the same as you or I winning the Lotto....

This has happened before.....

The ministry in charge of dialogue with the North and formulating long-term unification policies added that the North had halted movement to and from Kaesong on three occasions in March 2009 when Seoul and Washington were conducting the Key Resolve command post and field exercise. "Although the action taken is serious, it is not without precedence," an official, who declined to be identified, said. In 2009, the North blocked and opened movement over the DMZ although they allowed moved after the end of the military exercise

which is good news, although in 2009 this was a warning from kim jong il not his potentally more crazy son kim yong un. I get the feeling he must be thinking what am i doing wrong; crazy rhetoric, testing bombs, closing facilities still no aid?

source

reply to post by larapa


well I think it's different this time, I don't think 2009 had the same threats and rhetoric for 4 weeks every day with the threat of a nuclear war, declaring a 'state of war', China _probably_ mobilizing its military, the US mobilizing its military and so forth. Please correct me if I am wrong.

reply to post by larapa


We offered aid before he did his last test...to not do it.
He refused, and did the test anyways.

That's when he went off the Kim Jong Il playbook, and wrote his own. Basically, he simply skipped weeks between moves, and went right to triple dog dare.... Ah, the impetuousness of youth.... Unfortunately for the NK people, he may have went too far, too soon, to save face, like his dear old dad would have done by now. He's gone far enough to have us believe he just may be delusional. That last press release constantly mentioning reunification was something worthy of Iraq's Foreign Minister's statements of the Mother of All Battles, etc. Remember that guy?

I doubt if North Korea does anything but one miscalculation from either side could spark it into all out war.North Korea though has to realize it would mean the end of their regime and Kim Jung Un.Maybe they are so crazy they do not understand this.

The industrial complex means more to S.Korea than to N.Korea.

To S.Koreans, whom only want peace, had hope that funding and building that complex will build better relations with N.Korea. It doesn't need any profits from there, but to only show S.Korea's goodwill.

To Fatboy Kim, it is only truimphilism of his deluded superiority, that S.Korea are weak and begging him for mercy and reconcilliation with that hi tech and S.Korean funded and well managed industrial complex.

Although he does need the profits from the military complex, this current shut down only proves that he or/and his minders care more EGO than money, worth about $50 million annually.

Still, it is small change, compared to the trade and the aid he gets from China and his dictators leader group around the world, which is in billions.

Thus, he thinks he can simply shut down the complex, just to show to the world he is not afraid or a beggar for S.Korean funds.

The only 2nd last way to end Fatboy kim's delusions is to increase even more sanctions - closing of the China border as well as turn off electronic means for the regime to transmit and receive funds. Starve them all till they come to their senses and end the nuke building programme, and seek for mutual peace.

As N.Korea had OFFICIALLY declared war on S.Korea and USA, any merchant vessel venturing into N. Korea will be stopped, boarded and turn around by S.Korea on international waters.

And if N.Korean navy ships or submarines meets S.Korean or US ships, N.Korean navy best signal their intentions to prevent any 'accidents', as it was N.Korea that had declared war, and others must be wary. If they fail, then by international law, the N.Korean navy will be shot .

reply to post by Gazrok


I didn't know this, what aid was offered? I suspect it came with the caveat that they must give up all nucleur ambitions... and we all know what follows after a rogue nation does that ( Libya )

reply to post by larapa


Not at all.. This goes back to at least April of last year. We had already made the agreement for aid, and he then tested a long range missile when he was constantly warned such a test would stop the aid. It's gone back and forth since then.

Here's a link to the kickoff:

www.reuters.com...