Should Australia fear Indonesia?

Recently Indonesia took a big step towards full democracy. It has a capable leader, and is about to undertake important economic reforms. Indonesia has the largest Muslim population on Earth, and a terrorist organisation, JI, with big plans.

Will it be safe for Australia to have an economically and politically thriving Muslim nation just to the North, if yes, then why, and if no, then why not.

My personal opinion is that through the very nature of the Indonesian state, ie. the number of different cultural, religious and racial groups, any government of that nation-state will have to take tough military action now and then, thus allowing for the "legitmate" build-up of its miltary. I don't believe this is safe for Australia as a militarily strong people who view you as a western intrusion into Asia are bound to feel a little angry at any action you take which is contrary to their interests, eg. Iraq. And as such there is a motive for conflict.

So what do you think, is it a good or bad thing for Australia that Indonesia is taking the first steps towards escaping the third-world? And how likely is it that Indonesia would ever take military action against Australia in say 30-50 years?

You never eally can tell about the future, can you? In 30-50 years time they might be led by a fanatic that wants us all dead & declares war on us. The best thing we can do is keep in sweet with the Indonesian Governments, now & in the future, & work towards common goals for the Asia Pacific area.

The only thing I don't understand is why we send them so much money in aide each year, when they clearly can afford to keep & strengthen their already massive military.

North Queensland has already been mapped out as a separate Islamic state. Why would that mean there is anything to fear?

well if the salties dont put them off, then there's always the jellyfish, the water buffaloes, the spiders, the snakes.......... hope they like cane toad soup!

I was leaning towards the idea that an extreme Islamic government, along the lines of JI, could gain power in Indonesia. I don't understand why Australian governments have never giving more than token assistance to independence movements in Indonesia. Why not send arms to Aceh, or Irian Jaya?

Afterall what have we to fear? Neither Indonesia, nor Malaysia, have the capabilities to launch succesful offensive actions against Australia. And I doubt China would get involved.

What do guys think?

*What do you guys think?

Actually I think the military strength of Indonesia ought not to be "misunderestimated". It is the most populous Islamic state, and quite militaristic to boot.

I do not underestimate Indonesia's capabilities to launch defensive operations, but i do doubt that it has the technological capabilities to launch offensive operations. Other then to bomb Darwin, or Cairns. But the AAF would raize Jakarta to the ground only moments later. But do not "misunderestimate" its future capabilities.

With a stable government, and an improving economy, well....................living in Queensland may not be so safe. Which is precisely why Australia should fear/respect Indonesia.

But evidently Canberra is to far away for the Coalition government to take notice.

I am also concerned that recent events, ie. the purchase of cruise missles, have started a new arms race.

Check this link, very interesting:
www.westpapuanews.com...

If the USA will stay major military power in Pacific there is no need to fear. But if they will not (for example they will be defeated by China, or return to isolationism) than the Australia will have big problems...

currently we have nothing to worry about, but in the future we should always keep a policy of deterrence against indonesia and malaysia to keep the peace.

5 or 10 icbm's would be a good way to do this, but would risk spurring an arms race that i wouldn't want to spend tax dollars on useless weapons. The F-111's did it, now the govt want's to use F-35 with cruise missiles i believe.

I have the utmost respect for the indonesian people and what they can accomplish. one day they will be an economic power. And I hope we become best of friends.



thanks,
drfunk

[edit on 31-10-2004 by drfunk]

Well said, drfunk

I have no problem with our northern neighbours that would cause me fear.

If any country tried to 'invade' (i use the term loosely), we in Oz would be well
supported/protected...why,
Pine Gap for starters

Sanc'.

>>>I have no problem with our northern neighbours that would cause me fear. <<<

oh yeah? ,,,,they slaughtered 500,000+ east timorese since 1975.
indonesia has the most corrupt government in the whole of asia and aussies pay 'protection money' to the indons since the time of the keating gov.

well Australia has what 20 million people, indonesia a few hundred million, a lot of people there resent the fact that Australia is a sparsly populated rich 'western' nation in their area. We also train their military, in Australia so they are familiar with our territory, and tactics. What they dont have (yet) is the technological capacity of our military and the means to deploy their troops to Australia quick enough for a suprise attack.

The fact that Alexander Downer has recently invited them to bomb us doesnt help either...

Aussies should have strategic partner with East Timor. I wouldn't be suprised if muslim fanatics declared jihad against Aussies in 10-20 years. I think this is the single most security threat for Aussies in the near future. Also Aussies should start funding the christian freedom fighters in Indonesia to be on the offence. Once Indonesia cleans all the christian in there country, the next thing they would concentrate is the Aussies.

IMO

Not sure about the figure for E Timor but Indonesia does not have the most corrupt gov't. World Bank studies continually point to Sri Lanka as being the most corrupt regionally and Cambodia rates higher (or lower, depending on your point of view) on the scale than Indonesia.

The biggest problem with "keeping in sweet" with the Indos is that we did that under Keating, Hawke and Whitlam and what did it get us? E Timor and INTERFET. Screw the Indos. They should be keeping in sweet with us, after all, we aren't fighting three different insurgencies on three different islands.

As my dad used to say about the "red Chinese menace" "How are they going to get here, in their rice-paper boats?"

Cut aid, let them kill eachother. Problem solved.

>>Aussies should have strategic partner with East Timor..<<<
.. instead of trying to milk their oil resources.
you think aussies liberated Timor for humanity reasons. i think now. they didn't move their @rse until they found out how much oil there is out there.

If Indonesia ever acted aggressively towards Australia, Australia would have the entire British Commonwealth behind them. More important is the fact that Australia has been a big supporter of the United States' war in Iraq. Who ever the United States would side with (Australia) would win anyways. Also, if Indonesia acted aggressively for no reason, the United Nations would most likely do something about it (for once) since it is a developed country under seige. Collective Security > Indonesia

China would more likely support Australia. China would not get involved with a religiously led country like Indonesia.