Asteroid was once every 100 years

Hello ATS,

I don't have much time to go into an in-depth review, but rather a brief synopsis. The recent event that transpired on Friday and ended in a meteor crashing in Russia was the largest in 100 years. Now I'm no scientific guru by any means, however the timing of this event and what is happening now internationally, with calls from the scientific community to form an International asteroid detection system, and the efforts within a global body that were in discussions about such an event occurring, and then it happening while session was in is astonishing to say the least.

What an amazing coincidence of timing.

(Alternative Sources)

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I don't buy this "once every hundred years" Malarky for asteroids and other super-events.

It's random. The universe is not dictated by an egg timer. We could get hit five minutes from now, or five thousand years from now.
Anyone else find the "once every hundred years" saying arrogant?

reply to post by Daedal


Considering that the world knew asteroid 2012 DA14 was going to have a "near miss" at this time, I dont think the timing of any astroid detection discussions is odd at all.

reply to post by canucks555

I don't buy this "once every hundred years" Malarky for asteroids and other super-events.

Then you don't understand probabilities. Averaged out, over a long period of time, a meteor of this size can be expected about every hundred years.

The odds of rolling snake eyes are 1 in 36. That does not mean you can't get snake eyes twice in a row, it just means it's not very likely. It also doesn't mean you will get snake eyes if you roll the dice 36 times.

Anyone else find the "once every hundred years" saying arrogant?

I find it reasonable but I actually think the statistic is 1 in 3 decades.

So winning the lottery is impossible. It all a big numbers racket. The dice was loaded from the start.

I think the experts are saying more like once Every year.

Consider the size of the Earth, the area of Oceans, the area of land, the area of land inhabited by humans with cameras, and you will find the chance of Humans actually seeing these events are quite low.

Just imagine the amount that fall in the Oceans!!!

I have seen 2 almost as impressive as this, in the past 15 years. The first One I think was space junk, but a huge fireball, the size of the Moon with a fire trail, that was about 15 seconds long (and slowish).

The second at 9.00pm, watching a commercial jet plane travelling north, when all of a sudden the sky lit up with a huge Arch Light type light (that bright purpley whitish blue light) and this object fell, what seemed from my perspective, not far in front of the plane...in reality it could have been 100's of miles away in the upper atmosphere. Only lasted a few seconds. Im sure the Pilots had a change of pants in order. Of course no mention of this in the media, but I would think the pilot would have made some sort of report.

As an aside, researches in a remote Australian area have discovered an "Extinction Level" impact zone that is now the Worlds third largest. The strike has left a crater 200km (120miles) in diameter, and occurred around 300 million years ago. The asteroid that caused this was thought to be between 10-20 km wide. ANU Planetary Science Institute postulate, that it is possible this impact was part of a greater asteroid "Cluster" that may have hit Earth around 360 Million years ago, causing mass extinctions......of what life? who can be sure....

Either that, or it was caused by a space war between Human and Reptilian aliens....

reply to post by gort51

Isnt there an ele every 65miliilion years? We are just passing through the debris field of an ancient suppernova thats all. Umbrellas up

what about the one in indonesia ?

reply to post by Phage


The other thing is.. percentage wise, most asteroids should fall in the ocean.
A large percentage (I don't know what exactly) do, in fact.
How many asteroids of similar caliber as the one that fell in Russia may have fallen into/over the ocean without being noticed? None? Or maybe no one knows..Does anyone think we have a 100% successful tracking program to monitor these events?
One every four decades may actually be one or two a year..If you're not tracking them (or are unable to)
-and if one falls in the next five years then I stand by my ignorant statements regarding this arrogant "one every hundred years Malarky .

reply to post by canucks555

One every four decades may actually be one or two a year..If you're not tracking them (or are unable to)

The overall statistics (1 in 3 decades) are based on an entry anywhere on Earth. Observed or not.

So, once in a hundred years might something like this be observed but more often it will occur but not observed.

reply to post by Phage


Odds seem appropriate when data is present to support them.
How many Kit Kats will be sold the summer,
How much snow will fall in Gnome.

Two mega Tsunamis within ten years.They're supposed to happen once a lifetime...just sayin

I don't believe we have the technology to firmly and matter of factly predict meteor strikes.
People who lay odds on these types of celestial events are talking out of their a$$ (Imo)
-got back from the golf course and as you can guess have had a few. Thanks for your reply and opinion Phage.

reply to post by canucks555

Odds seem appropriate when data is present to support them.

The data is there.

How many Kit Kats will be sold the summer,

That isn't a matter of probability. It is a matter of market analysis.

How much snow will fall in Gnome.

Where's Gnome? Will weather forecasts may cite proabilities (chance of rain), they are not really based on them.

reply to post by Phage


Alright. So. How many rogue asteroids are in the vicinity of hitting earth in the next fifty years. Do they know? And if not.. then does that constitute enough data to come up with decent odds?

reply to post by canucks555

Here are a couple of lists of ones that have been seen.
neo.jpl.nasa.gov...
neo.jpl.nasa.gov...