The Perfect Storm

Originally posted by nixie_nox
reply to post by lasertaglover

 

I like blizzacane better.

NO THANKYOU! It was bad enough last year no power for a week!

Originally posted by nixie_nox
reply to post by Nyiah

 

If you are going to brag that you are more experienced, then you should know that is storm surge that causes the damage, not wind.

I was being tongue-in-cheek sarcastic. Did you miss the laughing smiley denoting as much? o.O

Originally posted by jrmcleod
I don't want to "rain on yor parade" but i would suggest that Sandy will not make direct landfall over New York. I am leaning more towards a skirt up the east coast and a sharp westerly turn out to the Atlantic in a heading toward the Bay of Biscay/Iberia. The Jet Stream forecast looks like it will take this route, and any mid atlantic blocking could quite easily be moved.

If it did make landfall, the worst affected areas would be the north east quadrant, which consequently will be out at sea.

Given the fact that the further north you travel, the less intense the storm will become, unless of course it can soak energy from any warm fronts, which are few and far between at the moment.

My prediction:

Very slight landfall, possibly some flooding along very eastern low laying coasts, max wind gusts possibly hitting 80mph on exposed coasts. High rainfall totals but mostly out at sea. A sharp westerly track around New York. Downgraded to tropical storm after passing teh Bahamas.

^^ This. Cold water + hurricanes = the storm equivalent of thinking about grandma getting it on. I'd be very, very surprised if it stays above 60-70 MPH in that region. That coupled with the NE quadrant having the fury located offshore, I think you guys are being fear-fed up there a bit. This isn't exactly 2011's Irene, hot August water fueled Irene. I'm certainly not saying don't prepare or check your stockpiles (because not doing that would be stupid in any weather event) I'm simply suspicious of the hyper-hysteria in the media. If jrmcleod & I are wrong about our hunches here, then we're wrong. No skin off my nose.

This is no "perfect storm" It will be lucky to survive long enough to make land fall over that cooler water but according to wunderground.com, it will but only as a tropical storm.
Ive never seen the hype about hurricanes like I have this year, especially during the GOP convention.

reply to post by Juggernog


The fact is not about what category this storm comes as, matter is the size it will become, 10-15 inches of rain = massive flooding , winds around 60-70mph down trees, lights out and this will affect the most populated places. They are saying it could make a landfall as a category 1 as of now, anything can change. Also the jet stream will intensify the storm more, even the meteorologist dont know what will happen. So lets see what happens.

"The storm is a combination of Hurricane Sandy, now in the Caribbean, an early winter storm in the West, and a blast of arctic air from the North. They're predicted to collide and park over the country's most populous coastal corridor and reach as far inland as Ohio."

abclocal.go.com.../national_world&id=8859695

reply to post by Juggernog


And tropical storms tend to do the most damage. Categories are deceiving, some of our most destructive storms have been barely organized TS. The way it its, the storm surge, the speed it is moving, all factors into the problems it causes.

I'm checking in ...... Philadelphia is on target to get nailed.
The locals are calling it SNOR'EASTICANE.
Snow .. Nor'Easter .. Hurricane.
Going out tomorrow to get some more supplies.
(I have a severely restricted diet due to autoimmune)
Gas'n up the cars ... taking in all the yard stuff that can blow ...
Expecting school to be out Mon/Tue.
Expecting Halloween to be cancelled.

reply to post by nixie_nox


Yes, I am aware of the potential damage storms can do. Now before I come off sounding like a "know it all" let me explain.
I used to be a catastrophic claims adjuster and I worked many storms (thats how I fell off a roof as stated in another thread)
I adjusted damages on homes for all 4 hurricanes that hit florida in 04, then Rita and Katrina.. but I was never called in to work anything above a Cat 1, much less a tropical storm..granted I did not do flood claims, since they required an NFIP cert.
Its just my opinion that there is nothing to worry about

Here's the latest track and forecast on Sandy from Intellicast:




I'm in SC well inland on the SC/GA border, and here is what they are forecasting for me on Saturday, hehehe. going to be a bit windy:

Wonderful - a rerun of last year.

I live on the East Coast. Last year we had a nor'easter right on Halloween. It knocked off power for days for thousands of people. Work was shut down for several days. Most of the trees in our neighborhood, and many across the state, fell due to the weight of the snow - including the tree in our front yard. We got most of the downfall sawed up and taken away just in time for trick-or-treat, or the sidewalks would have been impassable. We still had trick-or-treat, even though part of our town still was without power.

Everyplace was sold out of batteries and generators, and there were long lines at the few restaurants that still had power, because that was the only way for many to eat when their power was out.

Not again!

reply to post by Juggernog


If anyone is thinking this is a non-event, check out this out:

www.mcall.com...

They are calling it "Frankenstorm"

The somewhat silly and breathless tone of the coverage belied the potential seriousness of the storm. Forecasters said there is a 90 percent chance that the East will be flogged by gale-force winds, heavy rain, flooding and even snow starting Sunday and stretching past Halloween on Wednesday.
...
The New York area could receive 5 inches of rain, while eastern Ohio, southwestern Pennsylvania, western Virginia, and the Shenandoah Mountains could get snow.

One of the more messy aspects of the expected storm is that it just won't leave. The worst of it should peak early Tuesday, but it will stretch into midweek, forecasters say. Weather may start clearing in the mid-Atlantic the day after Halloween and Nov. 2 in the Northeast.

"It's almost a weeklong, five-day, six-day event," Cisco said Thursday from NOAA's northern storm forecast center in College Park, Md. "It's going to be a widespread serious storm."

The result of all this, meteorologists said, could be $1 billion in damages.

"Tens of millions of people and thousands of communities could be impacted by the storm," said AccuWeather, the forecasting service based in State College.
...
Chizmar said PennDOT has 2,250 trucks that can be pressed into service as snow plows and salt spreaders.

Nervine, Lehigh's emergency management director, said residents should check on elderly and infirm neighbors and perhaps offer them shelter if they seem unprepared to weather the storm.

"There's always room for one more on the ark," he said.

this may be like the 1991 perfect storm

hurricane/nor'easter

maybe some snow for added fun

Yes, this is looking a lot like the '91 storm. We always called it the Halloween Gale until Junger's book came out. By the way- the book is MUCH MORE SCARY than the movie. He included a rather long section on the subject of what it would be like to drown, and a really horrifying scientific account on the phenomena of rogue waves. I actually read the book during yet another notheasta, so the setting was complete

The convergence of several meteorological systems is the thing to watch. If they all do converge, it'll be hellish for sure, but if the systems don't interact in a way where they feed off each other, then it'll be just a few wet windy days in tropical storm land.

The coast could take a beating. Since the '91 storm, there has been a lot of really ostentatious building along the shore. I've seen what the Atlantic can do in even a fairly small storm. The insurance claims could be astronomical, but it will give a lot of the trademen some badly needed work.

It's an ill wind that doesn't blow someone a little good, as the saying goes.

International Space Station View of Sandy

The European Model has it coming ashore at the Delaware beaches.
The American Model has it coming ashore upper New Jersey.
We are right in the middle. That dang thing is probably going to
come straight up the Delaware river and make a historic landfall
in Wilmington, DE.

OH Crap ....

Originally posted by FlyersFan
The European Model has it coming ashore at the Delaware beaches.
The American Model has it coming ashore upper New Jersey.
We are right in the middle. That dang thing is probably going to
come straight up the Delaware river and make a historic landfall
in Wilmington, DE.

OH Crap ....

Maybe it will wipe out D.C., and put an end to all of our woes!

Here's a pretty good speculative article on how the storm could impact the elections.

How Hurrican Sandy Could Seriously Disrupt the Election

side from all the “usual” impacts of a hurricane transitioning into an uncommonly severe hybrid coastal storm and impacting the Megalopolis, this storm is going to hit one week before a presidential election, which raises a whole host of additional concerns. I discussed some of these yesterday, including the possibility that the occurrence of a national emergency could alter the dynamic of the campaign in its final weeks. But right now, I want to focus on the procedural issues, the impacts on the actual conduct of the election itself.

The article goes on speculate about various impact a major storm could have, even a week after it hits, including:

• Additional chaos and “irregularities” on Election Day due to lost “prep” time
  
• Lower turnout impacting various elections, and possibly giving Mitt Romney the national popular vote
  
• Widespread power outages causing disruptions in voting
  
• Widespread power outages causing major delays in vote-counting
  

I personally hope that the impact is less than feared and it has little effect on the election, but I feel the possibility is definitely worth discussing here if not in it's own thread.

Yeah...apparently even the Meteorologists are keeping an eye on the situation. If the cold front moving eastward from the midwest intersects this thing, they are saying "Frankenstorm"

NOAA to East: Beware of coming Frakenstorm

Originally posted by Jeremiah65
Yeah...apparently even the Meteorologists are keeping an eye on the situation. If the cold front moving eastward from the midwest intersects this thing, they are saying "Frankenstorm"

NOAA to East: Beware of coming Frakenstorm

Estimated $1billion in damage??? O_O

reply to post by Ear-Responsible


Inflation..... And rich people with ostentatious waterfront vacation homes. It adds up fast.