As other polls show tight race, Gallup stands apart

Reuters reports that while most polls predict the Obama vs Romney election to be neck and neck, Gallup places Romney as 6% ahead.

Gallup has correctly predicted the winning presidential candidate in 17 out of 20 elections since 1936.

As most surveys show Obama and Romney locked in a virtual dead heat, Gallup finds that the Republican would win by a comfortable six percentage points if the election were held today.

With a record of correctly predicting all but three of the 19 presidential races stretching back to 1936, Gallup is one of the most prestigious names in the business and its outlier status has other polling experts scratching their heads.

Republican strategist Karl Rove pointed out on Thursday that no candidate who has ever polled more than 50 percent in the Gallup poll at this point in a presidential race has gone on to lose the election. As it happens, Gallup had Romney at 51 percent that day.

Reuters

On Friday afternoon, Gallup showed Romney leading Obama 51% to 45%.

Originally posted by ollncasino
Reuters reports that while most polls predict the Obama vs Romney election to be neck and neck, Gallup places Romney as 6% ahead.

Gallup has correctly predicted the winning presidential candidate in 17 out of 20 elections since 1936.

As most surveys show Obama and Romney locked in a virtual dead heat, Gallup finds that the Republican would win by a comfortable six percentage points if the election were held today.

With a record of correctly predicting all but three of the 19 presidential races stretching back to 1936, Gallup is one of the most prestigious names in the business and its outlier status has other polling experts scratching their heads.

Republican strategist Karl Rove pointed out on Thursday that no candidate who has ever polled more than 50 percent in the Gallup poll at this point in a presidential race has gone on to lose the election. As it happens, Gallup had Romney at 51 percent that day.

Reuters

On Friday afternoon, Gallup showed Romney leading Obama 51% to 45%.

edit on 20-10-2012 by ollncasino because: (no reason given)

I think it's been the plan all along for Obama to not be re-elected. Once he's unemployed here, he can go be "savior of the world" (note the small "s"). Imagine Barack Hussein Obama, Nobel Peace Prize winner and Secretary General of the UN; Antichrist.

That's right. I said it.

Without even touching that hot potato of predicting a winner in this horse race, I'll just note that the polls right now are as politically motivated to extremes as I've ever seen them in my living memory. All of them. Some are +7 for Obama while some are +7 for Romney..or near that in each case. BOTH can't be right, obviously.

As far as I'm concerned, the humiliation of the Poll groups will be a very entertaining sidebar come the 'The Day After' analysis. I'm betting any that get it right are purely by coincidence and virtue of the fact ONE of them is bound to get it right by pure chance and odds. What I see this year won't be a result of integrity, honor in running the poll and interest in true, accurate results to see where things stand.

(S/F on the heads up...all this helps for context, to be sure)

A few months ago, several million people came out of the woodwork, on a single day, to visit their local Chick-fil-A and stand up for a conservative belief. I think they, and additional millions of voters, will do the same on Nov. 6.

I know numerous people who haven't voted since Reagan left office. They're going to vote this time, and it will not be for Obama.

i think obama will win.

there are allot more poor people, unemployed still from bushes era, lost life savings and their homes, and people who still remember how screwed over they got by the previous administrations policies.

i also wonder how many ghettos gallup called and got "this no. is out of service" before they gave up.

and on a side note, there is almost a consensus by political experts and election watchers that whoever wins ohio will win the presidency, and romney is trailing badly there depending on how you look at it.

ohio is split into two camps. white middle class workers and young voters, minorities and college students.

its most likely obama and mitt will split the middle class vote. i doubt the middle class believes romney will not raise their taxes. but some of them might actually believe him.

and there is no way minorities would vote for romney, or the young crowd or the college students.

Originally posted by Q33323


I know numerous people who haven't voted since Reagan left office. They're going to vote this time, and it will not be for Obama.

You are right! They will be writing in Ron Paul and Gary Johnson. As much as they hate Obama; I don't see them voting for an elite twit.

olaru12's poll of a bunch of old women in my moms nursing home has Mitt way behind and most of them are Baptist, conservative, fundamentalist, rightwing Rushbots and thay think Romney is a creepy Mormon.

Most of the old dudes though like him. But with out the women and minorities...Mitt needs a son in the voting machine business....

Oh wait.....www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by ollncasino

Sometimes a 2nd isnt needed.

reply to post by olaru12


Ron Paul? You are a dreamer. Who is Gary Johnson? No one, besides your following, knows about him.

No one.

In addition, you should watch what you say about other peoples' beliefs. It's not nice.

Regarding your link: That's malarkey!

reply to post by ollncasino


Well, unfortunately for Gallup, ALL states get to vote. Not just the deep South where they over weighted their sample. Looks like according to the electoral map polling of individual states, Gallup will be serving crow next month.

reply to post by TTAA2012


He's the "wrong complexion" to be the Anti-Christ.

There, I said it.

Go read that book again.

Originally posted by TTAA2012
I think it's been the plan all along for Obama to not be re-elected. Once he's unemployed here, he can go be "savior of the world" (note the small "s"). Imagine Barack Hussein Obama, Nobel Peace Prize winner and Secretary General of the UN; Antichrist.

That's right. I said it.

I agreed with the sentiment until you got to the 'Antichrist' bit.
He just doesn't fit the criteria. The "prince of the people who are to come", "destroyers of the temple and the sanctuary" ring any bells?

Last time I checked, Obama didn't destroy the 2nd Temple in Jerusalem.
Nor is he from a city built on seven hills.
Pretty sure he also didn't die and come back to life...


I could go on, but I'll spare you.
It doesn't add up. Move on.

17 out of 20 ain't good enough. I need Obummer to GO.

Of course it is a dead heat...

You can't rig landslide victories.

When only a couple thousand votes matter or even 1 ten thousand, people don't look too closely.
Makes for the perfect election.

Gives the sheeple the illusion that their votes matter. When in fact, we all know differently.
Some of us know this, some of us don't want to admit it.

Polls assume a fair and honest election.

Those now in control are likely to do whatever is needed to stay in control.

The polls may be correct in the will of the people, but not the outcome of the election.

Gallup may be using some alternative methods, like the squirrel prognosticator... see other ATS thread

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Or kitty pollsters

Originally posted by ollncasino
On Friday afternoon, Gallup showed Romney leading Obama 51% to 45%.

A damning indictment on the population that only 4 percent of the population chose
"Vote for those two? Are you mad?"

These polls are just that, polls, also I put money on it regardless or what they say, Romney will lose in the same circumstances as Al Gore, win the popular and lose by not having enough electoral college votes, so the Republcans can see what those hanging chads felt like back in 2000

Originally posted by Q33323
A few months ago, several million people came out of the woodwork, on a single day, to visit their local Chick-fil-A and stand up for a conservative belief. I think they, and additional millions of voters, will do the same on Nov. 6.

I know numerous people who haven't voted since Reagan left office. They're going to vote this time, and it will not be for Obama.

I haven`t voted in a presidential election since 1992, but i`m going to vote this year. The country is driving over a financial cliff and there is nothing anyone can do at this point to stop it, so i`m going to vote for the person who i think is best equipped to pick up the pieces after we go over the cliff and crash and burn at the bottom.

reply to post by ollncasino


Poll of Polls Obama vs Romney show Mitt Romney will win the 2012 election

The most recent polls show Romney leading Obama in the swing states i.e. Rasmussen Poll in the 11 swing states, showed Mitt Romney on 50% to Obama’s 46%.

According to The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 48%.

A new UPI poll showed Mitt Romney has a 2 % lead over President Barack Obama poll data released Saturday. According to UPI poll the data were updated Saturday by C-Voter after telephone contacts with 1,254 adults in the United States who said they would likely vote in the Nov. 6 election. The interviews were conducted Oct. 12-18.

According to new CNN/ORC International poll conducted after the second presidential debate, 49% of likely voters in Florida say they support Republican nominee Mitt Romney, with 48% backing President Barack Obama. Romney's one point margin is well within the survey's sampling error. President Obama has a narrow 49%-47% edge among women voters, with Mitt Romney holding a 50%-46% edge among men.

According to new Fox News poll of Florida likely voters shows Republican nominee Mitt Romney now tops Barack Obama in Florida, the battleground state by 48 percent to 45 percent. Romney’s advantage expands to 11 points over Obama among the most interested voters. The nearly 6 in 10 Floridians who are “extremely” interested in the election.

Republican Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama 49-48 percent in Iowa, according to a new. PPP's newest polls. In New Hampshire Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 49 to 48 percent . That represents a big decline for Obama compared to last month. Obama had previously led 51-44 in Iowa and 51-43.5 in New Hampshire on polls conducted the final week of September survey by Public Policy Polling.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters Mitt Romney has now extended his lead to six points in North Carolina following this week's second presidential debate.

New poll finds Romney with 52% support to President Obama’s 46%. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters, taken two nights after the second presidential debate, shows Romney with 50% support to President Obama’s 47%.

New Poll from Rasmussen today In the 11 swing states, showed Mitt Romney earns 50% of the vote to Obama’s 46%. The new poll following second presidential debate include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

A new poll in Pennsylvania released by Susquehanna polling and research shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over the President Obama in the Pennsylvania.The Susquehanna poll is based on a sample of 1376 likely voters and includes 48 percent Democrats, 42 percent Republicans and 10 percent independents.

Examiner.com

Romney does appear to be in the lead generally and just as importantly, in the swing states that will decide the election.

reply to post by ollncasino


It doesn't matter who wins. This country is screwed either way. What if they had an election and nobody came? What a message that would send. I used to be hounded by friends who were registered voters, to get registered so that "My Voice Could Be Heard." So I did. Many elections ago. A few years back I stopped voting, local politics too. This year I burned my card. So go ahead and "Have Your Voices Be Heard." Because.......It doesn't matter who wins. This country is screwed either way.

Originally posted by shantyknight
reply to post by ollncasino

 

It doesn't matter who wins.

Let me correct you;

"It doesn't matter who is preselected."