Romney 50%, Obama 46% Among Likely Voters - Except....

With three weeks to go in the campaign, Obama appears to be losing momentum, and now trails Romney by four percentage points among likely voters.

www.gallup.com...

Sounds bad for Obama huh?

But guess what, it's Gallup... so... let's look at the ACTUAL data.

East:

Obama 52
Romney 48

Midwest:

Obama 52
Romney 48

West

Obama 53
Romney 47

South:

Obama 39
Romney 61

The vast majority of Romney's lead comes from a part of the country that Obama doesn't need to win: The South.

Everywhere else, he's leading Romney, and this was PRE-last night's debate.

--

Ahhh Gallup... so dodgy...

More details here:

www.dailykos.com...

Including these poll numbers, all pre-debate:

Rasmussen (national): Romney +1, was R+2 yesterday
Rasmussen (Swing states): Obama +3 (50-47)
Ipsos/Reuters: Obama +3
YouGov/Economist: Obama +1
IBD/TIPP: Obama +1
RAND: Obama +5

reply to post by longlostbrother


Also there is the (2012 Electoral Map Forecast)...it shows all states and who they are for.

Link: electoralmap.net...

THIS POLL has it at Obama 56% to Romney 44%.

i`ve seen enough pre election polls in my lifetime to know that those polls mean nothing, i`m predicting the winner of this election will win by at least 8-12% and when that happens it will prove once again that all pre election polls are BS.

The popular vote poll doesn't matter. Romney or Obama on top .. it doesn't matter.
It's the electoral map by the states that matter. And Real Clear Politics still has
Obama very much ahead with the Electoral Count Map.

That being said .. the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.

Yep, all the polls that take into account the electoral college have had Obama in the lead from day one...

As long predicted, I think Obama will win... mostly due to the crappiness of Romney, which can't be understated...

reply to post by longlostbrother


Yes, Obama is still sitting in a very nice spot. The campaigns know this, this is why you aren't seeing panic or desperation from the Obama campaign.

They know that Romney's path to the white house is very narrow and very unlikely.

But be prepared to see Right Wingers on the morning after election day crying election fraud and pointing to polls like this (because they don't understand the process).

Update:

Today's Gallup

GALLUP: R 51% O 45%

www.gallup.com...

Originally posted by alternateuniverse
Update:

Today's Gallup

GALLUP: R 51% O 45%

www.gallup.com...

As they don't make their data available it's pretty hard to know how meaningful that info is.

Looking at the dates, it;s pretty obvious the gallup poll contains the tail of the Romney bounce.

Rasmussen Tracking 10/14 - 10/16 1500 LV 49 48 Romney +1
Gallup Tracking 10/10 - 10/16 2700 LV 51 45 Romney +6