Originally posted by xuenchen
Fuzzy Math?: CNBC Describes New Unemployment
Numbers as 'Contradictory'
This is puzzling
But the government said the total number of workers employed surged by 873,000, the highest one-month jump in 29 years. The total of unemployed
people tumbled by 456,000.
Let's not forget, one of the great "fudge factors: the BLS uses in many calculation is it's infamous
" (birth and death of businesses, that is) -explained at the bls link above.
This slight of hand model allows the BLS to "estimate" into existence xxx amount of jobs, and in the in the BLS's eye's, it is a perfectly
So while yes, said number of total workers employed surged by 873,000, i believe in this instance (September) roughly 574,000 were "estimated" into
I' am no master at any of this, however the many of the reputable financial sites I scan through are always sighting the CES Birth/Death Model to
clarify the issue. -So i have a basic understanding of how they *ahem* rig the numbers. -do your own research, you will find all this to be fact, not
The BLS's September Charts & Data (from Sept 2011 to Sept 2012) on Employment & Unemployment Data can be found here:
-crunch your own numbers, if you will.
Last note: as others in this thread have noted, there are many other variables at play in the employment calculations.
The other statistic/statement i am always seeing on financial sites is that typically, because of the CES Model, the first 40k to 80k of "new jobs"
created are "estimated" into existence due to the CES Birth/Death Model.
So lets say [hypothetical] of the 114,000 new jobs created this September the CES/Model estimated 50,000 jobs into existence. -that would leave only
64,000 "real" jobs created which actually had a guaranteed living,breathing human at the helm, so ta speak. -It varies depending on the initial
Don't forget boys and girls, every administration for at least the past 50-60 years has been fudging numbers with "creative math" on all sorts of
government data sets. If you think administrations do not at least "double down" on manipulation(s) during election years well, i think it's high
time you take your head out of the sand. (so no finger pointing, ya hear?)
And that people, is about all the energy i am willing to expend on the topic.