Fuzzy Math?: CNBC Describes New Unemployment Numbers as 'Contradictory'

Fuzzy Math?: CNBC Describes New Unemployment Numbers as 'Contradictory'

Very suspicious indeed this time !

We have numbers being "revised" and "twisted" in directions that defy the laws of physics and all of a sudden the unemployment rate drops !!

The fact is that more people dropped off the radar and are no longer counted as unemployed.

Tricky and sneaky ?

As soon as ex-General Electric CEO Jack Welch fired off a tweet questioning today's just released "unbelievable jobs numbers," the media went into a frenzy talking about how "conservatives" were launching conspiracy theories. Well, that's handy for the media and the Obama campaign, but it's not just "conservatives" who are confused by a full 0.3% drop in unemployment when only 114k jobs were created. ...

CNBC questions....

Job growth remained tame in September, but a big drop in the unemployment rate sparked a huge debate about what this meant for the economy—and the presidential race.

The US economy created just 114,000 new jobs last month, while the unemployment rate skidded to 7.8 percent, the first time it has been below 8 percent in 44 months.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' nonfarm payrolls report presented a slew of contradictory data points, with the total employment level soaring despite the low net number.....

Jobs Growth Rises 114,000 as Rate Slides to 7.8 Percent

This is puzzling

But the government said the total number of workers employed surged by 873,000, the highest one-month jump in 29 years. The total of unemployed people tumbled by 456,000.

Labor Secretary in on the "deal" ?

Suspicion about the federal government's September jobs report has fallen on Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis, who appeared on CNBC this morning and defended the numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), claiming--falsely--that upward revisions of 86,000 jobs were from the private sector. In fact, the new number is entirely accounted for by upwards revisions to state and federal government payrolls.

The BLS reported that while only 114,000 jobs were created in September--which would have translated into a rise in unemployment from 8.1% to 8.2%--the unemployment rate fell dramatically to 7.8%. That unusual drop is the fastest in nearly three decades, and was unexpected even in the rosiest predictions....

Fact Check: Labor Secretary Solis Misleads on Jobs Revisions

I think the Obama Campaign knew all this before the debate the other night !


The U6 rate is the accurate unemployment rate.... 14.7%

U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force...

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

related thread from Feb.... Gallup Finds Unemployment Climbing to Nine Percent in February

Another trick was to use government hiring.....

Cash-strapped state governments and the federal government added thousands of jobs in July, August and September, boosting overall jobs numbers. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced today that it had revised jobs numbers for July and August upwards, with revised gains coming from public sector jobs.

With the large revisions from the BLS--revising private sector jobs down, and public sector jobs up--the modest rise in September jobs coincided with an unusually dramatic drop in the unemployment rate, causing some experts to greet the new numbers with puzzlement.

Government jobs are an important part of the explanation.

Government hiring is not the same as industrial and business hiring !!


Jobs Number Boosted By Broke Governments

reply to post by xuenchen


I believe the unemployment rate is probably closer to 15-20%, and for the youngest age bracket, probably in excess of 20%.

Just a guess, but I wouldn't be surprised, what with all the manipulation, distortion, and lying, to protect agendas and excess greed.

It looks like there has been a sudden increase in part time jobs.

Not exciting, and probably a result of expired benefits......

Some of the mysterious drop in the unemployment rate in September--which fell from 8.1% to 7.8%--can be explained by 101,000 new government jobs over the past three months. Some of it can be explained by slow growth in the private sector--though not nearly as much as the Obama administration is falsely claiming. But most of it is accounted for by statistical revisions and a sudden increase of 600,000 part-time jobs. That increase has surprised everyone, but should not have: it is the predicted result of the end of unemployment benefits...........

Unemployment Mystery Solved? As Jobless Benefits Expire, More Seeking Part-Time Work

part time is usually chickenfeed ....... and tempory

Where are the Real jobs hiding ?

reply to post by xuenchen

The U6 rate is the accurate unemployment rate.... 14.7%

And the U6 rate in Obama first month as President....15.1%.

Anyway you slice it, Obama has now lowered the unemployment rate to below that which he was handed.

Originally posted by HostileApostle
reply to post by xuenchen

 

The U6 rate is the accurate unemployment rate.... 14.7%

And the U6 rate in Obama first month as President....15.1%.

Anyway you slice it, Obama has now lowered the unemployment rate to below that which he was handed.

wonderful

miracles never come easy.

great observation.

reply to post by xuenchen


Odd time to see a sudden rush in part timers. We were expecting to see that rush leading into the summer months for seasonal work not after. Strange indeed. Part Time is the "new" Full Time. These folks have thrown in the towel and have just accepted Part Time work as their permanent job 67% of the job gain came from these people....?? It's all spin if they are folding these part time numbers into the mix to get the overall percentage that they are looking for. Welcome to Obama's idea of success!!! Now he's stomping around on the stump today bragging about this number... "WE can't turn back now" he says.... Wow!!!

Wonder if any of these part timers work for SEIU getting paid $11 an hour to march at Romney and Ryan Rallies

I loved Jack Welch's response to these figures... It definitely does not smell right and the timing is all to perfect. One more round of employment figures are due just days before the election. I can smell the books cooking already

This is the season for part time employment and seasonal work.

As i stated here before unemployment rates numbers that governments provides the General Public is manufactured.

Don't forget if the population rate is at 300 or so million would i believe the new unemployment rate that its under 7.2% ? unfortunately no.

After Obama wins in the election the rate would just go back up again.

reply to post by xuenchen


Hate to say this, but jobs are earned. Sad to say this but all the manufacturing jobs are almost gone. Those have been moved. So it's time to step up to the plate and create your jobs. The GOV will not help you.
We need people to advance production of goods that benefit everyone on this planet.
This is the only solution, as being screwed does not get you anywhere.
New technology is the way to go while you still can before the rest of the world beats you to the plate.
Too bad the once great United States have become the scourge of the world.
Never had to be, many were sucked in. There is only one way to regress this.
All of you know how. Check to king...Namaste

The nation gets some rare semi positive news and all the cynics (AKA republicans) just bring us all down. Thanks for that I was really looking forward to skipping my prozac today, but now I need two.

A bit off topic, but relevant.
The other morning I was watching CNN while they were reporting on the Sept. jobs numbers.
That morning, they said that the number of jobs created in Sept. "fell short of economists expectations".
I watched long enough to hear the same phrase repeated several times.

I turned the t.v. off and left to run some errands, and when I returned from the errands later in the afternoon, I was surprised to hear the exact same number of jobs created being touted as "exceeding economists expectations".

I rewound the segment several times, all the while wishing I had tivo'd the earlier segment.

No pictures, no proof.
Take it for what it's worth.

Here's one more opinion...

A longtime Wall Street power player makes clear the attempted October surprise jobs report by the Obama/Jarrett administration is a “fabrication built upon a fabrication” that proves just how desperate those who hope to keep Obama in power have now become.


....In this instance, nearly 350,000 people are no longer seeking work. As such, they are no longer being counted. So in essence, we have a report indicating a marginal job creation figure of just 114,000 while 350,000 have given up looking for work. That indicates 300% more Americans have given up than found employment during the month of September alone under the Jarrett administration. How easy then would it be, as our friend is so fond of saying, for them to “cook the books” by simply not counting hundreds of thousands of unemployed? Very easy indeed. ....

WALL STREET INSIDER On Latest Obama Jobs Report: ” Absolute Rubbish”

and not to mention that the "break even" point is something like 125,000 to 150,000 ?

Originally posted by Robert80
The nation gets some rare semi positive news and all the cynics (AKA republicans) just bring us all down. Thanks for that I was really looking forward to skipping my prozac today, but now I need two.

Come on now, I'm not even American, definitely not right-wing, and even I understand that all of these numbers are massaged to look better than they are, just as the Republicans will exaggerate them to make them look worse than they are.

I think the best way to do it is to perhaps take both numbers and split the difference, then you might be close to the actual numbers. That is of course unless the right have some stake in it.

Most people know that it's all BS anyway. The government can quote all the numbers it likes, unless people actually see the effects on the ground, in their lives and in their careers, it's all meaningless.

Does anyone think the kids going for ten interviews for crappy part time temp jobs every week are gonna really give a rats ass about what the government says? These numbers are meaningless unless people are actually better off than they were six months ago, and we know that people are not.

This is just like the DEFCON being raised before the 2004 elections...

But trying to be positive here. The jobs situation is going to continue to improve simply because we're coming out of a depression. Just like 1933, 4 years after 1929. I sure hope for all those 15% still under or unemployed I'm right.

reply to post by xuenchen


The truth no longer matters to either side.. They are willing to lie cheat and steal their way back into another term to leach off the American people.

The only way this is going to get fixed is for the people to vote them out of office and hold those theyh send in their place accountible.

The days of being apathetic and lazy when it comes to out future must end now. From this point on we are going to get exactly what we send to washington.


As for the job numbers the Obama administration has been refusing to acknowledge the decline is because of people who have just given up looking for a job and who have run out of unemployment benefits. These morons truely think they are creating jobs when in fact they continue to destroy the economy.

i am waiting for Nov 5th and the media reports about the mistake or recalculation in the Sept jobs report.

if you worked 4 days in Sept.(one day a week) you would be classed as employed on the records.

Anybody who is awake and informed knows that the real unemployment is around 20%. Anytime the government releases a statement about anything, you can bet the family farm it is pure bullsh*t.

Originally posted by jibeho
reply to post by xuenchen

 

Odd time to see a sudden rush in part timers. We were expecting to see that rush leading into the summer months for seasonal work not after. Strange indeed. Part Time is the "new" Full Time. These folks have thrown in the towel and have just accepted Part Time work as their permanent job 67% of the job gain came from these people....?? It's all spin if they are folding these part time numbers into the mix to get the overall percentage that they are looking for. Welcome to Obama's idea of success!!! Now he's stomping around on the stump today bragging about this number... "WE can't turn back now" he says.... Wow!!!

Wonder if any of these part timers work for SEIU getting paid $11 an hour to march at Romney and Ryan Rallies

I loved Jack Welch's response to these figures... It definitely does not smell right and the timing is all to perfect. One more round of employment figures are due just days before the election. I can smell the books cooking already

What are you talkin about? Why would you expect to see a surge in seasonal work in the summer. Most seasonal work is in the winter. Shipping companies hire seasonal people, in preparation for the increased demand approaching Christmas. Retailers hire seasonal to handle the increased demand as we approach Christmas. (My store just hired a set of seasonal workers.) Security again for this same reason. Farms hire seasonal workers because we're headed into Harvest season. (harvests mainly starting around october). Restaurants hire seasonal wokers because people eat out more around the holidays. I think you catch my drift.

Originally posted by oasisjack
This is the season for part time employment and seasonal work.

Too true...then again, I can't even get part time work...

What else is there to do?