Here's a depressing piece of math. Consider two boxes filled with many numbered ping-pong balls, each with a different number. One box has a million
balls numbered 1 to1,000,000. The other has 100 balls, numbered 1 to 100. The size of the boxes is concealed so you don't know which is which: All you
see are two holes. You reach into one of the holes and pull out a ball and its numbered, say, "70." You have to guess which box it came from: The box
with 100 balls or the box with a million balls.?
Now, technically it could have come from either, but the odds are it came from the box with 100 balls, because your chances of picking a ball numbered
between 1 and 100 (as "70" is) is 100% from the smaller box, but only 0.01% from the bigger box.
Now, let's extrapolate that as an analogy to trying to figure out the length of the human species. We find ourselves alive about 100,000 years since
humanity came into existence (depending on how you define "humanity.") This is our "numbered ball." Now, assuming that you or I could have been born
anywhere in the extent of the human species' existence (near the beginning, the middle, or the end of its history), the odds are that the human
species won't last, say, ten million or 100 million years...because its much less likely that we'd be born only 100,000 years into the species'
history in that kind of scenario...just like it's less likely you'd pick out a ball numbered "70" from a box with a million numbered balls than a box
with only 100 numbered balls.
Think about it...
edit on 9/24/2012 by silent thunder because: (no reason given)