reply to post by Shoonra
I don't think people are stepping back because Romney will lose. All of the traditional points of consideration would tell me that Romney can't beat
Obama, but that's setting aside the Super PACs and the fact that Romney is going to be able to outspend Obama HEAVILY. It isn't going to matter what
anybody thinks of the candidates really- Romney will be able to say whatever he wants to voters in every single key strategic area of the electoral
map, and Obama won't be able to answer him in all of them. Come October, Republicans who don't like Romney will be mobilized to vote where he really
needs them by scare stories about Obama, Democrats will be bombarded with demoralizing messages that make them want to just ignore politics, and Obama
will give everything he's got trying to do damage control in the usual places suggested by electoral strategy, and the result will be a win for
Romney on an electoral map which doesn't really fit the recent patterns (such as Ohio and Florida both going for the winner in every election from
1996 to 2008, and New Mexico and New Hampshire being "battleground states" that almost always go Democrat since 1988)
Something slightly off normal like this electoral tie
could easily happen,
but actually I think Romney would get WI while Obama was working so hard for the other key states, causing Romney to win.
This stranger tie scenario
is also possible, but really it is much more
likely on this map that Romney would get Virginia and win outright.
Romney has the ability to be more places at once than Obama because of money, and that will allow him to find a way pretty much no matter what.
So why step back from Romney's VP search? Well, for one, they might be afraid that they will go to a contingency election in the senate that will
destroy their political career regardless of the outcome, but especially if they win it.
But for another thing, because that's not the kind of guy Romney is. Romney is a Nixon and he needs an Agnew- a dirty little loser with good luck,
fairly little recognition, but a good head for elections and some ability to appeal to the other side- someone who will draw his share of the fire and
can be cashed in at some point down the road. Remember that Agnew almost had to go to jail so that Nixon could have Ford as VP in time for the
resignation, but he made the deal and resigned.
So I think something bad will happen to Romney's VP, whether they get Rumsfelded, replaced, or just hated by association, and I think people in the
know are seeing that in clearer and more specific way than I do and warning their friends in high places to stay away. Either a powerful congressional
leader like Eric Cantor (who big as he is, wouldn't be known to your average voter except that they've heard his name and can't remember why) or a
party official not currently holding elected office could be his choice, and they will be taking one for the team in exchange for perks once they are
out of government.